Too many sleepers this year (1 Viewer)

[Macdaddy_2004]

Sifting through all the spotlight threads and just the plain ordinary everyday threads a certain theme seems to be establishing itself.

It seems to me that unlike other years in past there are a lot of players who are being touted as sleepers or players that will outperfor there ADP. Off the top of my head

Norwood

Lynch

Benson

Edge

I think we need to start pitting similiar sleepers with similiar ADP against one another and identify the player who offers the most value - so when we're sitting at a draft position we know who to select

I'll start

16. Lee Evans WR BUF 5.05.23 3.10 6.04 05.06 73 17. Plaxico Burress WR NYG 5.06.05 3.06 7.04 07.11 65 18. Hines Ward WR PIT 5.09.37 3.09 7.04 06.27 59 19. Deion Branch WR SEA 6.03.90 5.02 8.04 07.04 50 20. Reggie Brown WR PHI 6.05.98 3.09 8.05 08.03 62No Brainer here I'd be leaning towards Lee Evans from this group of WR'sPlease feel free to add

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

49. DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 5.09.87 3.06 8.06 07.94 63 50. Jamal Lewis RB CLE 6.02.21 3.09 8.01 10.17 53 51. Ahman Green RB HOU 6.03.83 3.10 9.01 09.08 60 52. Deion Branch WR SEA 6.03.90 5.02 8.04 07.04 50 53. Reggie Brown WR PHI 6.05.98 3.09 8.05 08.03 62 54. Tony Gonzalez TE KCC 6.06.09 4.10 9.02 10.33 43
Here we are looking at the beginning of Round 5 and end of Round 4 - purely from a potential point of view and ignoring needs by position I'd be inclined to go with Ahman Green here

 

[SSOG]

It's not that there are "too many sleepers", it's just that everyone has a different idea of who the sleepers are. Check out the staff over/under valued articles and you'll see that a player might rank as the most overrated *AND* the most underrated player. If you have 10 people, and they each have 5 "sleepers" that they're targeting, then you could have up to 50 different players considered "sleepers".

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

 

[FantasyTrader]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

 

[SSOG]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

Then that player is undervalued, but not a sleeper. A sleeper is a guy who isn't even on people's radars, a guy who people aren't even talking about. I hardly think that Ahman Green, Tony Gonzalez, or Reggie Brown are flying under the radar here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

I'd be more interested in scoring more points not where people rank or were drafted. The difference in scoring could be huge. Say a 10th round player (a WR) gets 20 extra points scored. That might make him worth a 6th round pick. But get a guy in the late second that puts up late first production and that could be a 50 point scoring difference.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

I'd be more interested in scoring more points not where people rank or were drafted. The difference in scoring could be huge. Say a 10th round player (a WR) gets 20 extra points scored. That might make him worth a 6th round pick. But get a guy in the late second that puts up late first production and that could be a 50 point scoring difference.

MJD???

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

Then that player is undervalued, but not a sleeper. A sleeper is a guy who isn't even on people's radars, a guy who people aren't even talking about. I hardly think that Ahman Green, Tony Gonzalez, or Reggie Brown are flying under the radar here.

i agree. i think "sleeper" is an overused term.

 

[Angus82]

What is a sleeper anymore? In the age of the internet there are no secrets. If you like a guy draft accordingly.

 

[Prof. Chaos]

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

What is a sleeper anymore? In the age of the internet there are no secrets. If you like a guy draft accordingly.

I was in a live draft the day before Opening Sunday last year in a NATIONAL CONTEST and none of the other owners knew who Marques Colston was. That's a sleeper.And just because FBG's know, doesn't mean everyone knows.Case in point - watch anyone who isn't as hardcore at this as we are try and draft 18+ rounds without a player list. Watch those same guys go kicker in Round 12 because they're out of players to name.Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

 

[Angus82]

What is a sleeper anymore? In the age of the internet there are no secrets. If you like a guy draft accordingly.

I was in a live draft the day before Opening Sunday last year in a NATIONAL CONTEST and none of the other owners knew who Marques Colston was. That's a sleeper.And just because FBG's know, doesn't mean everyone knows.Case in point - watch anyone who isn't as hardcore at this as we are try and draft 18+ rounds without a player list. Watch those same guys go kicker in Round 12 because they're out of players to name.Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

My Bad. I am so spoiled by FBG that I assumed EVERYONE knew the secret.

 

[David Yudkin]

David Martin is high on my list.

 

[ThePittbully]

What is a sleeper anymore? In the age of the internet there are no secrets. If you like a guy draft accordingly.

I wouldnt agree with that, last year Gore was drafted extremely late in alot of drafts. Even in drafts with so called "Sharks" he went pretty deep in. I got him in an initial dynasty draft last year at 9.04, if that draft were this year I wouldnt touch him with anything less then the 6th pick.Not to mention how many drafts Colston didnt even get drafted in last year, or slipped to the late late rounds, sleepers still exist

 

[Angus82]

Maurice Stovall is my guy this year. Not really a secret.

 

[Tinman]

I drafted Colston with my last pick last year...and as luck would have it....I won my league.....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I understand this general sentiment, but you have to keep perspective.

Everyone here is searching for an advantage, and that often takes the form of a sleeper or two. We can all talk about the Top 10 RBs, but that's a matter of which one to take, not identifying a clear competitive advantage.

Some may enjoy this article I wrote last year on a similar topic:

Primer Number Drafting

 

[twistd]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

Frank Gore could be an example of that. Last year I believe he was being drafted in the fourth or fifth rounds and he definitely scored like a first round talent. Even better than a first round talent when you consider one of my first round picks was Lamont Jordan, ouch!

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone being drafted in one of the first 5 rounds really counts as a "sleeper".

What if you think a 5th rounder will put up 1st round numbers?

Frank Gore could be an example of that. Last year I believe he was being drafted in the fourth or fifth rounds and he definitely scored like a first round talent. Even better than a first round talent when you consider one of my first round picks was Lamont Jordan, ouch!

Exactly my point - who is this year's Frank Gore ?Lingering in the 4th/5th round but will finish the year top 10

Is that Travis Henry this year?

 

[LHUCKS]

Is that Travis Henry this year?

Henry is a top 15 overall pick in most "expert" drafts I've seen.

 

[fsufan]

Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

i would think these guys are draftable in dynasty leagues but not redrafts

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

i would think these guys are draftable in dynasty leagues but not redrafts

Depends on how deep you go. 12x20, many of these are draftable.

 

[SSOG]

Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

i would think these guys are draftable in dynasty leagues but not redrafts

Depends on how deep you go. 12x20, many of these are draftable.

Agreed. I'd rank Carter, Booker, and Dorsey in the top 240 at the very least.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I am not a paying customer to any FF website (not ashamed to admit it). Instead, I prefer to bounce around to many sites (as I'm sure even FBG subscribers do). It makes no sense not to bounce around, because unless everyone in your league lives and breathes FBG, you can't get a feel for how others see value. Case in point - mock drafting at the fantasy football calculator website. I can pretty much tell how many FBG'ers I am drafting with, based on when certain players fall. I'm sure you've seen it too, if you've been there. BTW, I do about 5 or so mocks every day, just for fun and practice. I'll give some real life examples, based on a 12-team mocks I've been in...

QB

Kitna falling to QB10 in 8th round - not many FBG'ers drafting

VY and Rivers jumped on in rounds 4 or 5 - they can't be FBG regulars, can they?

RB

Tatum falling to round 9 - not many FBG'ers

KJ taken in round 4 - not an FBG subscriber

WR

Santonio Holmes falling to round 12 - not many FBG'ers

Joe Horn going in round 6 - ouch

TE

VD as TE2 in round 4 - go, go, gadget arm

Cooley taken as TE12 in round 11 - bingo

D

MIA undrafted - are you serious, even in a 12-teamer?

MIN/OAK drafted around D6/7 - no thanks

As I said, I'm not an FBG subscriber, but those that don't bounce around are assuming that sleepers are known. Fact is, on a few sites it's funny to see someone start a post about how Santonio came into his own at the end of last year. Then, you see the thread die as no one reads it. Instead, they are all reading the posts on who to take at pick 3.

Is this my favorite FF site? Ain't no doubt.

Is this site unknown to many FF'ers? Sadly for them, yes it is.

 

[nygiants56]

Sleepers would be guys like Adrian Peterson, Bears #2 RB..if Benson flops, Peterson could put up top 10 RB numbers.

Ronald Curry

Brandon Marshall

Sammy Morris ( apparently Maroney is still bothered by that shoulder)

John Beck

Drew Carter

 

[Fighting Noles]

Then draft guys like Mike Walker, Drew Carter, Tab Perry, Kevin Walters, Brian Leonard, Lorenzo Booker, Cecil Sapp and DeDe Dorsey and watch their heads spin.All without a 'net.

i would think these guys are draftable in dynasty leagues but not redrafts

Depends on how deep you go. 12x20, many of these are draftable.

EVERY one of those guys except Mike Walker just went in a 12 x 18 draft I just completed on Sunday...I took Carter & Dorsey.

 

[PsychoMan]

Sleepers would be guys like Adrian Peterson, Bears #2 RB..if Benson flops, Peterson could put up top 10 RB numbers.

Ronald Curry

Brandon Marshall

Sammy Morris ( apparently Maroney is still bothered by that shoulder)

John Beck

Drew Carter

Are you predicting Benson to do the same, or do you think Peterson would do better? I'm just curious because it seems like a lot of people don't expect top 10 RB numbers out of Benson ...