Posting some updated positional tiers along with some commentary. Some of these thoughts will be redundant with what I've already written, but some may be new.
CEH
TAYLOR
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DOBBINS
SWIFT
AKERS
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VAUGHN
MOSS
DILLON
GIBSON
I'm standing firm on my top two backs.
Edwards-Helaire is a prototypical three down player who can carry a big workload and contribute as a pass-catcher. I consider him a high-floor, high-ceiling asset worthy of early consideration in redraft formats as well as dynasty.
Taylor is very reminiscent of past successes like Ryan Mathews and Ahman Green, being a chiseled, big-frame sprinter type who has enough quickness and footwork to make the whole package work.
If we call CEH and Taylor the "probably" tier then there's a considerable dropoff to the next tier, which might be accurately described as the "maybe" tier.
Akers is the best pure athlete of the bunch, but his shoddy production and lack of any single defining characteristic give him a low floor. He's the boom-or-bust pick of this cluster, and is not a very compelling buy at his 5-7 overall rookie ADP (I'd be more comfortable with him in the 9-12 range).
Swift is a plus version of Duke Johnson and should become a Lamar Miller or Eddie Lacy type who has some useful seasons, but never really convinces as a top tier franchise RB. His overall athleticism is below the ideal level that you want in a franchise back. Like Akers, I think he's a talent-reach at his rookie draft ADP.
Dobbins is not a special talent either, but fits a mold that works fairly well in today's FF/NFL landscape (versatile pass-catching back with adequate run skills and power). Drafting today I would take him at the top of the second RB tier.
The next tier is my "probably not" group, or players who I don't back to be long-term successes.
Vaughn is the third round version of Swift, with a quality skill set that still falls short of enduring franchise back levels. He can be useful as a rookie and has no major deficiencies, but long-term seems destined for a RBBC/backup trajectory.
Moss looks okay on tape and has a nice frame, but also faces questions about ceiling. His speed and mobility are not special and with Singletary on the roster, he may not have the same opportunity for an instant spike as people like Vaughn and Dillon.
Dillon is a heavy-footed power back who will get beaten up on the regular in the NFL. There may be stretches of viability, but I would bet against this type of back in today's NFL.
Gibson is a boom-or-bust curiosity who has some intriguing quantifiables, but may struggle to transition to a full-time role. I don't see the footwork and cuts that you want in a pro starter.
LAMB
JEFFERSON
AIYUK
JEUDY
RUGGS
REAGOR
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SHENAULT
PITTMAN
DUVERNAY
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CLAYPOOL
HAMLER
MIMS
HIGGINS
V JEFFERSON
EDWARDS
BOWDEN
The first tier remains extremely hard to differentiate, and is probably the most challenging part of this rookie class for me. I've ultimately decided to prioritize high-floor over high-ceiling here, which is why I have Lamb, Jefferson, and Aiyuk tops. They seem to have the cleanest overall profiles, but I wouldn't say any of them are locks. As mentioned previously,
Lamb has merely an average frame and average deep speed, and may profile more as a quality chain-moving #2 than a true top target. Keenan Allen represents a best-case scenario of what he can become. I would say he's slightly overrated and would consider trading down instead of picking him.
Jefferson also has a lean frame, but boasts 4.4x speed and impressive short-area quickness and fluidity for a taller WR. He played mainly out of the slot for LSU and thus didn't always have to beat 1v1 coverage. I would've liked to have seen more jump balls and corner routes to assess his skills in this area, because he mostly caught short passes and crossing routes. In the NFL he may spend more time working outside. In college he was just a piece of the puzzle and I'm not sure I see the special traits of a pro #1, but he should at least be a really good #2 with his speed, separation ability, and long frame. His college usage and skill set remind me a little bit of Tyler Boyd, but he may have a higher physical ceiling. I've said a lot about
Aiyuk recently. I view him as a B+ version of Michael Crabtree or Justin Blackmon. He not only has the biggest frame of the first-round WR, but is also the best open field runner and RAC threat. That's a compelling combination of traits. As a ~28 BMI WR with legitimate punt returner skills, I think he can do some fun stuff in the possession game for SF. Is he a top tier monster? No, but he fits a mold that works in the league.
Jeudy may be a little low here, but his unconventional play style and skill set makes it harder for me to comfortably project who he'll be on Sundays. He has some real sharpness in his routes and quality speed, but a slight build and modest overall physical traits for the NFL level. Who is he? I can't think of an obvious NFL parallel, and that's a bit frightening. I don't hate his game, but given his ADP in rookie drafts and startups, he's a mild fade for me.
Ruggs has great speed, sticky hands, and is a very athletic player overall. In a vertical attack he could be prolific, but his ceiling will hinge on his ability to win on short-intermediate routes and excel in the possession game. He's not an elite separator on short routes and doesn't have the bulky frame to overpower at the catch point, so there are some legitimate question marks about his ability to be more than a vertical guy. I think he is solid value at his 9-12 rookie draft ADP though since the price is reasonable for the floor and upside that he presents.
Reagor is the Cam Akers of the WR group, a boom-or-bust player with great physical attributes and questionable production. He'll be useful for the Eagles as a RAC machine and return man straight out of the box, but his long-term FF relevance will hinge on his ability to produce as an outside WR. He has a sturdy frame, but is on the short side with questionable possession skills. There's a high ceiling if he hits, but I consider him the riskiest of the six first round WRs.
Shenault has been a big-time late-riser for me and is now my solid favorite of the day two WRs. Colorado's utilization of him in a Swiss army knife role subjected him to a lot of unnecessary punishment, but when lined up out wide
he showed surprisingly quick feet for a bigger WR. Far from merely being a big plodder, he has real route running and RAC potential. JuJu-like at times. His ceiling is as high as any WR in this draft, and he represents very good value for a rookie pick in the 12-15 range.
Pittman also has unusual break-point separation ability for a big WR, but that's where it ends. He lacks dynamic speed or RAC ability. He can be a solid chain-mover, but I don't see a high ceiling. I remain a big fan of
Duvernay at his ADP, and he's my go-to pick in the 20-30 range of rookie drafts. 4.39 speed on a yoked frame with reliable hands. 1v1 separation is his biggest question mark, but he's not terrible in that regard. I think Baltimore may have gotten another Lamar or Andrews-like steal with this pick. In my view he was underdrafted by about 40-50 spots based on his talent level.
Claypool has an impressive frame and nice vertical speed, but is neither quick out of breaks nor elusive with the ball in his hands. Separation and RAC could be major issues.
Hamler has electric separation ability, but has frame/role/hands question marks. How valuable is a 178 pound slot WR?
Mims is lanky long-strider with nice catch-point skills. There are guys of his ilk who have been successful (Alshon Jeffery comes to mind), but separation may be a big problem.
Higgins is as tall and stringy as AJ Green, without any of the athleticism or sharpness in his routes. A clear fade for me given his lofty ADP.
Van Jefferson is a nice route runner who can potentially become a quality second or third option. As a 24 year old with no elite traits, there's seemingly a low ceiling, but the Rams have gotten numbers out of people like Kupp and Woods, so this may be a decent situation for him to have some relevance long-term. Not a special talent though.
Edwards is a big frame possession WR who almost plays like a small TE. He'll do some of the dirty work while Ruggs is flying deep. Modest separation skills and explosiveness would seemingly put a low cap on his ceiling. It's always tough to make the jump from gadget player to full-time RB or WR, and
Bowden didn't really wow me enough to want to take that gamble.