Top 5 (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

What are the top 5 things that you use to make your Player Projections. In whole or by position.

EX. History, System, Coaching Philosphy, etc...

 

[Jason Wood]

Ability

Opportunity

Health

 

[jurb26]

Ability

Opportunity

Health

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SchemeOpponets

 

[-OZ-]

Basically, I look at what the player did last year, factor in the changes (coaches, surrounding talent, role), and go from there.

 

[David Yudkin]

I generally start with 3 year averages and average totals per game. Then I look at personnel and coaching changes and adjust accordingly.

I went through this last year for projections of the Lions. People in general were giving a ton of yardage to their WR and to Kevin Jones, and history would show that it was unlikely that a team would jump up exponentially in terms of yardage and TDs from one year to the next. It does happen once in a blue moon when the planets align just right, but other than the occassional Rams outburst ot the addition of Dan Marino, teams normally do not have insanely radical changes overnight.

 

[tytyty]

I generally start with 3 year averages and average totals per game.  Then I look at personnel and coaching changes and adjust accordingly.

I went through this last year for projections of the Lions.  People in general were giving a ton of yardage to their WR and to Kevin Jones, and history would show that it was unlikely that a team would jump up exponentially in terms of yardage and TDs from one year to the next.  It does happen once in a blue moon when the planets align just right, but other than the occassional Rams outburst ot the addition of Dan Marino, teams normally do not have insanely radical changes overnight.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So David. Do you project what the team will do first then slot the players accordingly to equal the Team total?

 

[BlueOnion]

What are the top 5 things that you use to make your Player Projections.  In whole or by position.

EX. History, System, Coaching Philosphy, etc...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I usually start with all the players who just signed new big contracts and put them at the bottom of my list. I then take all the players who feel dissed or disrepected in terms of their contract and put them towards the top. I then take starters who are in the final year of their contract and put them at the very top.

 

[David Yudkin]

I generally start with 3 year averages and average totals per game.  Then I look at personnel and coaching changes and adjust accordingly.

I went through this last year for projections of the Lions.  People in general were giving a ton of yardage to their WR and to Kevin Jones, and history would show that it was unlikely that a team would jump up exponentially in terms of yardage and TDs from one year to the next.  It does happen once in a blue moon when the planets align just right, but other than the occassional Rams outburst ot the addition of Dan Marino, teams normally do not have insanely radical changes overnight.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So David. Do you project what the team will do first then slot the players accordingly to equal the Team total?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I generally look at the teams with the most changes first (mostly out of curiosity) to try to get an idea of what the numners might look like. I genreally would take a stab at what I think each player would do and then add up the totals. I would then compare that to what the team totals have been the past few years and see how whacky the totals I came up with would be in comparison, and then readjust accordingly.Where it gets tricky is when there is a lot of turnover in both skilled and non-skilled positions (even defense too) and guys coming back from injury. For example, how would have Corey Dillon done last year if he, the OL, and defense were healthy. I would think a fair amount better. However, this year, they added Maroney and that could take the wind out of Dillon's sails some.

I hope to have some team rushing and passing data that most likely will be available through the main site that could be helpful for those making projections, but again, I caution people that this offseason there have been A LOT of changes to factor in.

 

[The Ref]

Ability

Opportunity

Health

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SchemeOpponets

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

6. History.

 

[Wade]

1. Historical Performance

2. Injury Status/Injury History

3. Surrounding Cast

4. Strength of Schedule

5. Vibe (rumors, camp news, legal troubles, gut feelings, etc)

 

[cws3030]

1. Ability/Historical Performance

2. Opportunity/Surrounding Cast/System

3. Injury Status/Injury History/Age

4. MY GUT FEELING

 

[Bracie Smathers]

What are the top 5 things that you use to make your Player Projections.  In whole or by position.

EX. History, System, Coaching Philosphy, etc...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Fantasy Master Mind has some great stuff on their free-teaser pagehttp://www.ffmastermind.com/2005/articles/archive.php

From that page their are many articles, three pertaining to juding potential from RBs, very in-depth and great stuff in these three articles.

Trends: 3 Significant Implications for the RB Position

http://www.ffmastermind.com/2005/articles/bl060705.php

How Touches, Age, Size, Use, and Past Injury Determine the Likelihood of Injury.

http://www.ffmastermind.com/2005/articles/bl063005.php

Team Offensive Efficiency Part II

How Offensive Efficiency effects the outcome of a RBs Fantasy Production

http://www.ffmastermind.com/2005/articles/bl071905.php

Part III: Team TD Production

How Team TD Productivity affects the outcome of a RB’s TD Production

I think any serious fantasy player will eat this up, enjoy!

 

[guderian]

I find it's imporant to break down the projections into it's components. For example, for RBs I project:

1. Rushing attempts per game (influenced by history, philosophy, competition and health).

2. Yards per attempt (influenced by supporting cast like O-line, history and ability).

3. TDs per touch (influenced by history, ability and philosophy).

IMO that helps to project out situations like KC. With a new coach, YPA shouldn't change much with the same O-line and basic offense. TDs per touch may change and I would look at the Jet's recent history there to see how it compares to KC's history and come up with an estimate.

I find that breaking down your projections into its components helps to better reflect the many changes in personnel, coaches, schedules, etc.

 

[2112]

you guys are slipping....

1. Touches

2. Yards

3. Touchdowns

4. Turnovers

5. Playing Time

-OR POSSIBLY-

1. QB

2. RB

3. WR

4. TE

5. PK

:blindingflashoftheobvious:

 

[H.K.]

1. Ability/Historical Performance

2. Opportunity/Surrounding Cast/System

3. Injury Status/Injury History/Age

4. MY GUT FEELING

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually rank #2 ahead of #1. Less talented players can put up better stats than players with more ability on other teams if they are in the right system and get the workload. Knowing the tendancies of HC's and OC's in new environments is a big part of projecting performance. For example, look what Linehan did for Randy Moss, then Chambers last year, now he is coaching Holt this year ....