Top Fantasy Pick in 2012 (1 Viewer)

[dollarbill13]

Assuming we know what we know now and nothing more, who would be the #1 pick. I'll try to keep this going for a while to try and get a current consensus.

Assume PPR, 6 points all TD, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D

#2 pick discussion here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623495

 

[solorca]

I voted for Lesean McCoy, simply because of the fear of Ben Tate stealing a little bit of the action from Arian Foster. I would consider them 1a and 1b though.

 

[Warrior]

Arod voters must be joking...

 

[dollarbill13]

Arod voters must be joking...

I guess I shouldn't have started this thread during MNF

 

[hines]

It's Rodgers and I don't think it's even close

 

[Kenny Powers]

Why are we assuming 6pt all TDs?! Id say the vast majority play 4pt passing TDs

Not to mention PPR vs. non-PPR is probably like 50/50

 

[NBusiness]

It's Rodgers and I don't think it's even close

then you're dumb

 

[hines]

It's Rodgers and I don't think it's even close

then you're dumb

why? what are the odds Rodgers does not finish in the top 3 QBs assuming he is healthy? under 10% I would think. odds of injury is way less than any RB/WR as well. floor is so much higher than any of these other picks it makes it worth it right there.

 

[solorca]

Why are we assuming 6pt all TDs?! Id say the vast majority play 4pt passing TDsNot to mention PPR vs. non-PPR is probably like 50/50

I think 6 point tds are more common, at least in all of the leagues I am in or am asked to join.I guess there are variations, but for the purpose of the poll, he had to set the scoring system.

 

[renesauz]

Why are we assuming 6pt all TDs?! Id say the vast majority play 4pt passing TDsNot to mention PPR vs. non-PPR is probably like 50/50

I think 6 point tds are more common, at least in all of the leagues I am in or am asked to join.I guess there are variations, but for the purpose of the poll, he had to set the scoring system.

4 point passing TDs are FAR more common.

 

[dollarbill13]

I just went with the settings in the main league I play in. Not sure it matters for the #1 pick (although with the season Rodgers is having, it might)... Could change it for future picks as long as this pick goes to a RB. PPR is personal preference, I suppose.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Mark Ingram getting no love...

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

My vote's McCoy, esp. in PPR.

But if anything, this thread is showing me so far that Ray Rice and Matt Forte are going to spell pretty good value next year...

 

[Ghost Rider]

Hard to say McCoy since we don't know if Andy Reid will be there next year and how much the new coach will use McCoy in the passing game and whatnot.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Hard to say McCoy since we don't know if Andy Reid will be there next year and how much the new coach will use McCoy in the passing game and whatnot.

Good point in regards to PPR league value, but would think that anyone who has watched an Eagles game would know what kind of talent they had in McCoy. Vick's feet and Jackson/Maclin's (and now Celek's) hands are much more of a threat to McCoy's touches than any potential coaching philosophy change, and McCoy has done just fine.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I voted Calvin based on the leagues I play in star 3 WRs. McCoy would be second because I play PPR. Peterson would be third.

 

[Alkahsu]

I voted Foster because all of my leagues (like most) do 4 point passing TDs. If it's 6 point TDs then there is a strong case for Rodgers, but I'd probably still go Foster.

 

[hines]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25.

the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

 

[SproutDaddy]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25. the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

Sorry, but in my leagues Calvin has 100 more points than WR25. So there you go. Guess none of the leagues I play in are standard.Still, how can you justify any QB at #1? If you play in a 12 man league, you don't pick again for 23 picks. Typically I would think standard leagues start more than 1 RB and 1 WR. QB should never go #1 overall.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Why are we assuming 6pt all TDs?! Id say the vast majority play 4pt passing TDsNot to mention PPR vs. non-PPR is probably like 50/50

I think 6 point tds are more common, at least in all of the leagues I am in or am asked to join.I guess there are variations, but for the purpose of the poll, he had to set the scoring system.

4 point passing TDs are FAR more common.

I posted a poll here a year or two ago and it was 55/45 in favor of 6 pt passing TDs.

 

[Zoblefu]

Not that it's really on topic, but my guess is that is close to 50/50 on 6pt or 4pt. I prefer 6 point... and I'm in 3 leagues all of which are 6 point. As for PPR/NonPPR, I read an article earlier this year that said it's closer to 67/33 in favor of PPR now.

I voted Foster, he's been on my team for 2 seasons now and he's a monster especially with the O-Line in Houston. Mccoy is good too, but Vick himself could vulture just as many TDs as Tate could...

I agree that you can't pick ARod first... first round fine, but first pick? I would much rather grab a RB 1st, the best RB/WR avail second, and then if you really want you can probably get the 2nd or 3rd best QB still with your 3rd round pick. If you pick QB first, you will likely be starting a RB2 as your RB1 unless you get lucky with pickups as likely the best 15-18 are already gone by your second pick...

 

[Grahamburn]

Right now? With the Schaub situation hindering Foster some I think you go Adrian Peterson.

I get the feeling Chris Johnson will be in this conversation when drafts kick off next season though.

 

[Cyclones]

Its Foster without any hesitation in my opinion. After this weekend he is RB2 in my league in overall points despite missing 3 games.

 

[solorca]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25. the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

In my league, which has similar settings to what is given in this thread, the 13th QB off the board was in the 9th round. The 25th RB off the board was in the 5th round. I'm not saying that Rodgers shouldn't be a first round pick, but I wouldn't take him at #1 overall.I play in three leagues this year and the Rodgers owners are currently in 10th (out of 12), 9th (out of 10), and 6th (out of 12. This is my team, and the worst overall team I have). The owners of McCoy or Foster are in the top 4 in all three leagues.

 

[Dvorak]

In my league, Rodgers is averaging 10+ points a game more then Brady/Brees. To get that kind of difference in RB, you need to go down to #13-15 in RB from #1.

In other words, Rodgers+Matthews(#13RB) beats Brady(#QB2)+McCoy(#1RB)

 

[TheWick]

Mark Ingram getting no love...

I hate you

 

[Deamon]

Why are we assuming 6pt all TDs?! Id say the vast majority play 4pt passing TDsNot to mention PPR vs. non-PPR is probably like 50/50

I think 6 point tds are more common, at least in all of the leagues I am in or am asked to join.I guess there are variations, but for the purpose of the poll, he had to set the scoring system.

4 point passing TDs are FAR more common.

I posted a poll here a year or two ago and it was 55/45 in favor of 6 pt passing TDs.

Perhaps 2 years ago, but leagues are adjusting scoring. I've been a part of 11 leagues at SOME POINT over the last 5 years and I've never seen a 6 pt for passing TD league. Espn, yahoo, etc standard scoring is usually 4... there's no way 6 points is more common.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I do play in leagues that are 6pts for all TDs. Non-ppr however.

I think Aaron Rodgers is clearly the #1 pick.

As of now, Rodgers is 6.6 points/week ahead of the next closest QB which is Brady. He's 15.7ppw ahead of the #12 QB (Ryan)

Foster currently is the ppw leader, but has Shady .7ppw behind him. He's 7.7 ppw ahead of the #12 back (Mathews). He's 11.7 ppw ahead of the #24 back in Blount.

Calvin is the ppw leader at WR, but Welker is 1.4ppw behind. #12 WR ppw is Austin, and he's 6.1 back, and Boldin is WR 24 at 8.3 back.

Add in the revolving door that is typically the top 10 RBs on a yearly basis, and its a no brainer to me.

 

[hines]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25. the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

Sorry, but in my leagues Calvin has 100 more points than WR25. So there you go. Guess none of the leagues I play in are standard.Still, how can you justify any QB at #1? If you play in a 12 man league, you don't pick again for 23 picks. Typically I would think standard leagues start more than 1 RB and 1 WR. QB should never go #1 overall.

how often does the #13 QB produce significantly better than draft slot? almost never, Cam Newton aside. you find top 10 RBs all the time after RB25 is drafted (FJax, MBush, DMurray, etc.). find your RB/WR sleepers and take them, it is much easier to hit on a star RB late than it is to find a great QB

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Mark Ingram getting no love...

CSB....How many times/ways can your repackage the same joke?

 

[dollarbill13]

I'll close this since it looks like Foster is the winner.

 

[sycamore]

In my league, Rodgers is averaging 10+ points a game more then Brady/Brees. To get that kind of difference in RB, you need to go down to #13-15 in RB from #1.In other words, Rodgers+Matthews(#13RB) beats Brady(#QB2)+McCoy(#1RB)

Great post

 

[Khy]

Foster, nuff said.

 

[Alkahsu]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25. the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

Sorry, but in my leagues Calvin has 100 more points than WR25. So there you go. Guess none of the leagues I play in are standard.Still, how can you justify any QB at #1? If you play in a 12 man league, you don't pick again for 23 picks. Typically I would think standard leagues start more than 1 RB and 1 WR. QB should never go #1 overall.

You do know he's talking PPG, not total points, right? That would equate to 10 PPG for your league which is still less than the QB and RB examples he used.

 

[dollarbill13]

so far in standard scoring Rodgers is 12 PPG above QB13. Mccoy (#1 RB) is 11 PPG above RB25. Calvin is 9 PPG above WR25.

the pick is Rodgers. by far the safest pick

Sorry, but in my leagues Calvin has 100 more points than WR25. So there you go. Guess none of the leagues I play in are standard.Still, how can you justify any QB at #1? If you play in a 12 man league, you don't pick again for 23 picks. Typically I would think standard leagues start more than 1 RB and 1 WR. QB should never go #1 overall.

You do know he's talking PPG, not total points, right? That would equate to 10 PPG for your league which is still less than the QB and RB examples he used.

Certainly if you project Rodgers to repeat (or close to) his 2011 season, he's right up there in the discussion. If you project him to put up more "normal" numbers, then probably not. The 6 point per passing TD option makes him that much more enticing.Btw - link to the #2 discussion is here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623495

Looks like a 2 man race between AP and McCoy