Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Their are typically six trades per first round in an average draft. Already this draft has four picks impacted by trades, three from last year and one a few weeks ago, so it should not suprise anyone to see at the very least two more first round trades before the first round is in the books. I'm sure no one would be suprised to see more than two trades made and it is possible we see two within the top ten picks.
Knowing that trades will take place means that mock drafts go out the window within the first couple of picks due to suprise picks and trades so the excersize isn't accuracy but to try and figure out patterns. I can't possibly predict the entire first round so I'm only trying to figure out a logical pattern for the top dozen picks. I am confident we will see a trade and possibly two trades in the top ten picks.
TOP DOZEN PICKS MOCK
1. Colts - QB - A.Luck - Stanford
Already announced.
2. Redskins - QB - R.Griffin - Baylor (Trade)
Pick a lock.
3. Vikings - WR - J.Blackmon - Oklahoma St.
Adam Schefter reported that the Vikings weren't sold on Kalil. Kiper and McShay have passed along that they have heard some rumors along the same lines. They went into a detailed discussion and made cases for both Blackmon and Claiborne. Schefter felt at the time he originally tweeted this information that Blackmon would was where Minnesota was leaning. "My feeling today is in the minority. Think WR Justin Blackmon." I either Schefter or Jay Glazor report something then I tend to listen.
*4. Rams - (Trade) OT - M.Kalil - USC
Rmas made a killing in the RG III trade and still wind up getting the guy they would have originally taken at #2 pick plus they still are sitting on Washington's 2nd round pick this year and their 1st rnd picks in 2013 and 2014.
[trade details] St. Louis moves up from #4 to #6 sending 2nd round pick (#33) to Cleveland.
5. Tampa - RB - T.Richardson - Alabama
Ronde Barber is 36. Talib Aquib is a head case. They could use a corner but Trent Richardson is a playmaker. Could go either way but a RB who touches the ball 20 times a game and who can make plays should have more impact than a CB who only has so many opportunities to impact a game with a big play. If this decision faces them then I think they go Richardson.
*6. Browns - (Trade) WR - M.Floyd - Notre Dame
If Blackmon and Richardson are off the board and they can't pull off a trade to move down and still wind up with FLoyd then he could be the pick.
[trade details] St. Louis moves up from #4 to #6 sending 2nd round pick (#33) to Cleveland.
7. Jaguars - CB - M.Claiborne - LSU
Reports of them moving back could spur a trade here but if Claiborne is still there then he will go here even if Jacksonville isn't the team holding the pick.
8. Miami - QB - R.Tannehill - TAMU
Miami lost WR Brandon Marshall and are left with a weak receiving corps but in this scenario they don't have an option to land a blue-chip wideout so choose to fill their QB need. Fingers crossed that Matt Moore can keep the starting job long enough till Tannenhill has a fighting chance to succeed.
9. Carolina - DT - F.Cox - Mississippi St.
Cox seems to be the BPA so Lina gets a big man who can move.
10. Bills - OL - C.Glenn - Georgia
Melvin Ingram could go here but Cordy has the, size, strength, and footwork, to become a good OLT. A bit of a project but OLTs are prized and Glenn has the tools to make the transition but would probably need a rookie year starting at OG before he's ready to make the move next yeear to OLT ALA Jon Ogden. Ogden started his rookie season at OG before making the move but the Ravens had OLT Tony Jones so they had the luxury to put a stud OLT at OG with Ogden even though Jon didn't need to be eased into the blind side. Glenn needs some work right now before he can make the switch.
11. K.C - LB - L.Kuechly - Boston College
Linebackers taken this high recently have had bad track records but the buzz is reaching a fever pitch on Kuechly right time. KC hopes Luke turns into an stud like Urlacher but they would be happy if he turned out to be a solid Derrick Johnson type of linebacker.
12. Seattle - OG - D.DeCastro - Stanford
If Tannenhill somehow drops then he's not making it past the Seahawks. I think Ingram would be a possibility and he could be but DeCastro is such a sure thing and paired with Carpenter, last year's top pick, could help forge a solid offensive line going forward.
the suprise is Minnesota passing on Kalil to take Blackmon which will shift the top part of the round. If Claiborne is the last blue-chip prospect left and somehow makes it to Jacksonville then they likely would move down. Philly contacted the Browns about the 4th pick but the Browns won't move that far down however Jacksonville could pull the trigger.
Knowing that trades will take place means that mock drafts go out the window within the first couple of picks due to suprise picks and trades so the excersize isn't accuracy but to try and figure out patterns. I can't possibly predict the entire first round so I'm only trying to figure out a logical pattern for the top dozen picks. I am confident we will see a trade and possibly two trades in the top ten picks.
TOP DOZEN PICKS MOCK
1. Colts - QB - A.Luck - Stanford
Already announced.
2. Redskins - QB - R.Griffin - Baylor (Trade)
Pick a lock.
3. Vikings - WR - J.Blackmon - Oklahoma St.
Adam Schefter reported that the Vikings weren't sold on Kalil. Kiper and McShay have passed along that they have heard some rumors along the same lines. They went into a detailed discussion and made cases for both Blackmon and Claiborne. Schefter felt at the time he originally tweeted this information that Blackmon would was where Minnesota was leaning. "My feeling today is in the minority. Think WR Justin Blackmon." I either Schefter or Jay Glazor report something then I tend to listen.
*4. Rams - (Trade) OT - M.Kalil - USC
Rmas made a killing in the RG III trade and still wind up getting the guy they would have originally taken at #2 pick plus they still are sitting on Washington's 2nd round pick this year and their 1st rnd picks in 2013 and 2014.
[trade details] St. Louis moves up from #4 to #6 sending 2nd round pick (#33) to Cleveland.
5. Tampa - RB - T.Richardson - Alabama
Ronde Barber is 36. Talib Aquib is a head case. They could use a corner but Trent Richardson is a playmaker. Could go either way but a RB who touches the ball 20 times a game and who can make plays should have more impact than a CB who only has so many opportunities to impact a game with a big play. If this decision faces them then I think they go Richardson.
*6. Browns - (Trade) WR - M.Floyd - Notre Dame
If Blackmon and Richardson are off the board and they can't pull off a trade to move down and still wind up with FLoyd then he could be the pick.
[trade details] St. Louis moves up from #4 to #6 sending 2nd round pick (#33) to Cleveland.
7. Jaguars - CB - M.Claiborne - LSU
Reports of them moving back could spur a trade here but if Claiborne is still there then he will go here even if Jacksonville isn't the team holding the pick.
8. Miami - QB - R.Tannehill - TAMU
Miami lost WR Brandon Marshall and are left with a weak receiving corps but in this scenario they don't have an option to land a blue-chip wideout so choose to fill their QB need. Fingers crossed that Matt Moore can keep the starting job long enough till Tannenhill has a fighting chance to succeed.
9. Carolina - DT - F.Cox - Mississippi St.
Cox seems to be the BPA so Lina gets a big man who can move.
10. Bills - OL - C.Glenn - Georgia
Melvin Ingram could go here but Cordy has the, size, strength, and footwork, to become a good OLT. A bit of a project but OLTs are prized and Glenn has the tools to make the transition but would probably need a rookie year starting at OG before he's ready to make the move next yeear to OLT ALA Jon Ogden. Ogden started his rookie season at OG before making the move but the Ravens had OLT Tony Jones so they had the luxury to put a stud OLT at OG with Ogden even though Jon didn't need to be eased into the blind side. Glenn needs some work right now before he can make the switch.
11. K.C - LB - L.Kuechly - Boston College
Linebackers taken this high recently have had bad track records but the buzz is reaching a fever pitch on Kuechly right time. KC hopes Luke turns into an stud like Urlacher but they would be happy if he turned out to be a solid Derrick Johnson type of linebacker.
12. Seattle - OG - D.DeCastro - Stanford
If Tannenhill somehow drops then he's not making it past the Seahawks. I think Ingram would be a possibility and he could be but DeCastro is such a sure thing and paired with Carpenter, last year's top pick, could help forge a solid offensive line going forward.
the suprise is Minnesota passing on Kalil to take Blackmon which will shift the top part of the round. If Claiborne is the last blue-chip prospect left and somehow makes it to Jacksonville then they likely would move down. Philly contacted the Browns about the 4th pick but the Browns won't move that far down however Jacksonville could pull the trigger.
