Somewhere similiar to where Kolby Smith went last year. I'm sure some nuts will say he's the 1.2 rookie though.How high does Torrain go now?
With the top-tier talents landing in questionable situations, and the lower-tier talents landing in prime situations, I think the top 10 could be primarily RBs, much like what was expected prior to the NFL Draft.
It's also likely that if you own the same pick in multiple leagues, you will see a different player each time.
Preliminary:
1. McFadden
2. Stewart
3. Mendenhall
4. Forte
5. Smith
6. Jones
7. Ryan
8. Thomas
9. Torain
10. Charles
Yep. The tiers fell that way in my mind as well.With the top-tier talents landing in questionable situations, and the lower-tier talents landing in prime situations, I think the top 10 could be primarily RBs, much like what was expected prior to the NFL Draft.
It's also likely that if you own the same pick in multiple leagues, you will see a different player each time.
Preliminary:
1. McFadden
2. Stewart
3. Mendenhall
4. Forte
5. Smith
6. Jones
7. Ryan
8. Thomas
9. Torain
10. CharlesThat's why I like tiers better, especially in this draft. Off hand, I'd say your top 10 can be broken into 3 tiers, maybe 4 if Mac is one.
He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
No. I typically trade my late 1sts for proven talent.And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
I tend to not draft with guppies and ended up with Kolby Smith in the 5th round of both my leagues last year. I'll target Torian in the 4th if you say he's worth the risk.No. I typically trade my late 1sts for proven talent.And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
If you can get it, great. I'll still take the risk/reward of Ben, Cutler, Boldin, Jennings, Holmes, Marshall, etc. over the players most people would trade for the picks. Of course if you can land a player like TO for a late 1st, you do it - but most people won't make that offer.No. I typically trade my late 1sts for proven talent.And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
I like the kid and his situation, but to put him in that top elite tier is a pretty bold statement. I don't think I would take him any higher than 5 slot. I have top 3 and Forte for my top 4.People have Kevin Smith way to low. He'll be a top 3 pick.
i typically tend toI tend to not draft with guppies and ended up with Kolby Smith in the 5th round of both my leagues last year. I'll target Torian in the 4th if you say he's worth the risk.No. I typically trade my late 1sts for proven talent.And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
DET line sucks. New coach. New system. Mediocre QB. A defense that can't keep the other offense off of the field. And you wan't to select their 3rd round selection in the top 3 picks? Huge gamble here. People wasted to picks on Brandon Jackson last year, and this seems more like JJ Arrington on a worse team every time I think about it. I think at some point he's worth the pick, but not before at least DMC, Stewart, Mendenhall, Forte, F.Jones.People have Kevin Smith way to low. He'll be a top 3 pick.
Torain was a 1st day talent who fell due to his early season ending toe injury. I'm actually very surprised he was picked in the 5th, I had read and saw a video of his private workout and he looked good there but his injury was so bad many thought he wouldn't be ready for training camps. He's one of the few backs who have potential to be everydown backs, you never know with Shannahan but let's not redux this guys talent.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
Interesting that I just researched the guy and one projected the 5th round, one projected the 7th and another projected undrafted. It's neither here nor there, I'm sure he won't last until the 4th round of my rookie draft, he might end up overtaking McFadden cause he's the sexy Denver RB.Torain was a 1st day talent who fell due to his early season ending toe injury. I'm actually very surprised he was picked in the 5th, I had read and saw a video of his private workout and he looked good there but his injury was so bad many thought he wouldn't be ready for training camps. He's one of the few backs who have potential to be everydown backs, you never know with Shannahan but let's not redux this guys talent.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
Anecdotal name dropping while picking out hits on one side vs. busts on the other is the best way to tell people you have a weak argument. There is plenty of evidence the other way as well.I will also rarely ever grab a rookie QB in the 1st round of a fantasy draft. You're waiting SO long for them to be useful, and even if they work out they're still only a mediocre FF player except for the extremely rare case. Even Roethlisberger, who's been the biggest QB hit in years, took four years to be useful in FF and is still worth less as a top 3-5 FF QB than a guy like Jones-Drew is as merely a top 15 RB.Even guys that do well but don't end up pick of the litter like Cutler, etc will only give you similar numbers to other veteran QBs that can be had for pennies on the dollar.And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
Meh, when these type of arguments come up it's always assumed that people are talking about more standard, traditional leagues. That's the only way to do it. No one cares who's more valuable in a league that starts 2 punters and where passing TDs are worth 35 points, otherwise this entire FBG site would be useless because they can't possible rank guys for every possible scoring system.If you play in a non-traditional league you have to take these kinds of discussions and apply your league's differences to them on your own.This whole argument about whether QBs should be drafted in the first is kind of a silly argument. Dynasty leagues have much more variability than redrafts / simple keepers, particularly when you get into roster management. If you can hold on to a drafted player indefinitely on a reserve / taxi squad like you can in our league, then drafting QBs higher is fairly common because you can afford to allow them 3-5 years or longer to develop.
Our league's scoring is pretty strange (it started in the mid-80s, when scoring off box-scores made a simplified scoring system beneficial to a Commish's sanity), but the roster management is not. Rookie draft is 3 rounds, and 3 rookies get to spend one year tagged as rookie reserves (if you have 4+ picks through trades, then you must promote the extras to regular roster before the season). Then there's a reserve roster of 10, limit of 3 per position -- this is where those rookie picks transfer to after their first year. You can't start anyone stashed on rookie or reserve rosters unless you promote them to your regular roster (3 QB, 5 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 2 K), but by selectively pruning your reserves each year, cutting busts and promoting / trading away those who pan out, you can effectively stash guys on these rosters to develop as long as you want.
In our case, QB picks and even WR picks in the first are not uncommon, because you can give them those extra years to develop without gimping your main roster. And if a QB does develop into a top-tier QB, they're invaluable commodities that are rarely traded away because they have much more longevity than RBs and the waiver wire is always thin. If you can grab a Peyton Manning or a Carson Palmer, you're locking in a QB who can start for a long time. WRs are also bumped up a bit in value due to their longevity, but not quite as much due to greater depth at the position. RBs are still routinely the bulk of a first round in a situation like this, but drafting a QB/WR is understandable and not at all a guppy move.
Point being, there are far more ways that dynasty leagues can vary and affect the way players should be ranked for drafting purposes then your typical redraft / keeper league. These kinds of threads are still valuable for discussion, particularly for rankings within a single position. A top 10 list isn't going to apply very well across different leagues, but a discussion of Forte vs. Stewart vs. Mendenhall will, or a discussion of the QBs future prospects, for example, will be very beneficial for all dynasty leagues.
My point was mostly aimed at the argument a bit upthread about whether drafting a QB in the first is a stupid move or not -- and that, at least in my experience, there isn't a widespread standard, traditional roster management system for dynasty leagues. Scoring systems are much more standardized, and other than really strange scoring systems, minor deviations are relatively easy to account for. Dynasty leagues are much more varied; deep rosters, reserve rosters, contract limits, etc. While I can comfortably say "Drafting X in the first round" of a redraft or a startup dynasty league is stupid (because it will be in the vast majority of scoring systems), I don't think you can do the same of rookie dynasty drafts.Meh, when these type of arguments come up it's always assumed that people are talking about more standard, traditional leagues. That's the only way to do it. No one cares who's more valuable in a league that starts 2 punters and where passing TDs are worth 35 points, otherwise this entire FBG site would be useless because they can't possible rank guys for every possible scoring system.If you play in a non-traditional league you have to take these kinds of discussions and apply your league's differences to them on your own.
+1 should be a run on RBs, WRs have been exposed and will drop, QBs... mehtop 3 are locked in, maybe 2 and 3 swap. 4 and 5 comes down to preference. 6,7,8 is a toss, i could see a QB and WR slipping in this range occationally. after that you start getting into the later round picks that teams didn't grade as high, opinions will vary greatly. Should be a big run on WRs as was expectedtop 10 are very likely going to be all RB's in most standard scoring leagues. There is such a big group of average WR's i just don't see any going ahead of the RB's with solid potential or ones that fell into a good situation.1)DMac2)Jonathan Stewart3)Mendenhall4)Kevin Smith5)Matt Forte6)Felix Jones7)Chris Johnson8)Ray Rice9)Jamall Charles10)Steve Slaton11)Matt Ryan12)Devin Thomas13)James Hardy
Almost all of us had Smith much lower before the draft. Just because the LIONS GM and staff think he is worth a first day pick you are now moving him up to the third spot???? It is the Lions. who knows how far he would have fallen if they hadn't taken him. Yes, he will get a chance to start, but he will be running against the same crappy line in the same bad organization.FF_Guru said:I like the kid and his situation, but to put him in that top elite tier is a pretty bold statement. I don't think I would take him any higher than 5 slot. I have top 3 and Forte for my top 4.yesitsme said:People have Kevin Smith way to low. He'll be a top 3 pick.
Yep. I think you have to bump him up a few spots and consider him inside the 4-8 range, but if you believed in his talent before today then you should still believe in his talent. If you didn't believe in his talent today, then you still shouldn't believe in his talent. Yes, he will get an opportunity, but guys like Arrington and Shelton have shown how quickly an opportunity can evaporate. Bottom line is that whether or Smith succeeds will hinge entirely on whether or not he's the goods.Almost all of us had Smith much lower before the draft. Just because the LIONS GM and staff think he is worth a first day pick you are now moving him up to the third spot???? It is the Lions. who knows how far he would have fallen if they hadn't taken him. Yes, he will get a chance to start, but he will be running against the same crappy line in the same bad organization.FF_Guru said:I like the kid and his situation, but to put him in that top elite tier is a pretty bold statement. I don't think I would take him any higher than 5 slot. I have top 3 and Forte for my top 4.yesitsme said:People have Kevin Smith way to low. He'll be a top 3 pick.
No Jamaal Charles?1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.Mendenhall4.Smith 5.Forte6.Jones7.Johnson8.Slaton9.Rice10.Ryan11.Flacco12.Any one of about 10 WR's.
Nope, i was not a big fan of him before the draft, his situation only made it worse. I would rank him somewhere after the first few WR's.No Jamaal Charles?1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.Mendenhall4.Smith 5.Forte6.Jones7.Johnson8.Slaton9.Rice10.Ryan11.Flacco12.Any one of about 10 WR's.
What's with the Hardy hate?moderated said:top 10 are very likely going to be all RB's in most standard scoring leagues. There is such a big group of average WR's i just don't see any going ahead of the RB's with solid potential or ones that fell into a good situation.1)DMac2)Jonathan Stewart3)Mendenhall4)Kevin Smith5)Matt Forte6)Felix Jones7)Chris Johnson8)Ray Rice9)Jamall Charles10)Steve Slaton11)Matt Ryan12)Devin Thomas13)James Hardy
People talked about LJ getting cut/traded. He just signed a huge contract (ala CJ) which makes it very hard to do either. And LJ is pretty much all they have atm on offense.So he'll battle Kolby Smith for backup duty. I'd be shocked if he got over 60-70 carries a year over the next 3 years. He's a 2nd day RB, who could just as easily be out of the league in 3 years as he could being a great backup RB. If you look at the impact of 3rd/4th/5th round RBs/WRs in FF, it's pretty sad. Go check the top 15 RBs/WRs in dynasty leagues. Loaded with 1st/2nd round guys. I'm sure someone has a link to the thread that checked out the data. I just remember it being pretty fugly. The Chiefs want to run the ball a lot, probably want to avoid LJ getting 400+ carries, and probably plan to give Smith/Charles a decent amount of backup duty. That's a far cry from FF production, which should be close to nil for both of them. Pretty clear its backup RBBC to me.No Jamaal Charles?1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.Mendenhall4.Smith 5.Forte6.Jones7.Johnson8.Slaton9.Rice10.Ryan11.Flacco12.Any one of about 10 WR's.
Oh, i still have unconditional love for James.What's with the Hardy hate?moderated said:top 10 are very likely going to be all RB's in most standard scoring leagues. There is such a big group of average WR's i just don't see any going ahead of the RB's with solid potential or ones that fell into a good situation.1)DMac2)Jonathan Stewart3)Mendenhall4)Kevin Smith5)Matt Forte6)Felix Jones7)Chris Johnson8)Ray Rice9)Jamall Charles10)Steve Slaton11)Matt Ryan12)Devin Thomas13)James Hardy1. McFadden -- quite clearly2. Mendenhall -- before Stewart because of the more capable offense3. Stewart -- tough to run in Carolina unless they improve quickly4. Jones -- should step into the JJ role; again productive offense is important5. Forte -- probably won't beat out Benson, and another brutal running game6. Smith -- decent opportunity, questionable talent, probably overrated over the situation7. Hardy -- should step in and be a major factor8. Rice -- probably needs an injury, but the talent is solid and opportunity should come9. Johnson -- will be used, great line, great receiver, crowded and odd situation10. Slaton -- A zone blocking system may prove ideal11. Charles -- LJ and Kolby in the way, interesting but far from ideal12. Avery -- being ignored too much, nice talent, good situation
I like Kevin Smith, but he was in no way faster than Mendenhall or Stewart. He had one of the slowest 40 times of all the RB's.Kevin Smith is about to go Curtis Martin on the entire League...You have been warned.He was faster at the combine than Mendenhall and Stewart and you can't argue with the production. The #2 rookie pick is Kevin Smith. ROY
Let me help you, since your obviously DMAC mad.1. Stewart (keep thinking Williams is going to get much time, ain't gonna happen)2.Mendenhall3.Smith 4.Forte (Competeing with Benson)5.McFadden( Colossus's bustes) This is the New JJ Arrington.6. Devin Thomas7. Ryan.8. Johnson (Titans are go Raiderland)9. Rice10.Flacco11.Any one of about 10 WR's.12.Jones1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.Mendenhall4.Smith 5.Forte6.Jones7.Johnson8.Slaton9.Rice10.Ryan11.Flacco12.Any one of about 10 WR's.
agreed, and in most 12 team, standard leagues, you can probably get Cutler, Rivers, Eli, etc. (maybe not Ben, Romo, or some others) for a late 1st anyway. I will almost always trade for a QB instead of drafting one.FreeBaGeL said:Anecdotal name dropping while picking out hits on one side vs. busts on the other is the best way to tell people you have a weak argument. There is plenty of evidence the other way as well.I will also rarely ever grab a rookie QB in the 1st round of a fantasy draft. You're waiting SO long for them to be useful, and even if they work out they're still only a mediocre FF player except for the extremely rare case. Even Roethlisberger, who's been the biggest QB hit in years, took four years to be useful in FF and is still worth less as a top 3-5 FF QB than a guy like Jones-Drew is as merely a top 15 RB.Even guys that do well but don't end up pick of the litter like Cutler, etc will only give you similar numbers to other veteran QBs that can be had for pennies on the dollar.Chachi said:And while I have players like Big Ben and Jay Cutler you have guys like Musa Smith and Brandon Jackson. Carrying on.JPeso said:He was a workhorse at ASU. Ray Rice will be in purely a backup situation for 2-3 years. I tend not to take QBs in the 1st round of rookie drafts, and enjoy owners like you who do. Carry on.Chachi said:Torian might not even make the Broncos roster. Sticking this guy ahead of Ray Rice is sickening. Sticking him ahead of Flacco, Brohm, Henne is a joke too. The guy is a mid 5th round pick. Top 10?![]()
It would help me alot if you are picking in front of me in the two leagues where i have the 1.2.Let me help you, since your obviously DMAC mad.1. Stewart (keep thinking Williams is going to get much time, ain't gonna happen)1.Mcfadden
2.Stewart
3.Mendenhall
4.Smith
5.Forte
6.Jones
7.Johnson
8.Slaton
9.Rice
10.Ryan
11.Flacco
12.Any one of about 10 WR's.
2.Mendenhall
3.Smith
4.Forte (Competeing with Benson)
5.McFadden( Colossus's bustes) This is the New JJ Arrington.
6. Devin Thomas
7. Ryan.
8. Johnson (Titans are go Raiderland)
9. Rice
10.Flacco
11.Any one of about 10 WR's.
12.Jones
His official 40 at the Combine, according to Scott Wright at NFL Draft countdown, was 4.6. There was a bunch of confusion about the first fast times recorded but the average of his electronic times was pretty slow.I like Kevin Smith, but he was in no way faster than Mendenhall or Stewart. He had one of the slowest 40 times of all the RB's.Kevin Smith is about to go Curtis Martin on the entire League...You have been warned.He was faster at the combine than Mendenhall and Stewart and you can't argue with the production. The #2 rookie pick is Kevin Smith. ROY
Where can I get the official stats? The article i'm reading on Smith says he was faster than both Stewart and Mendenhall at the combine.His official 40 at the Combine, according to Scott Wright at NFL Draft countdown, was 4.6. There was a bunch of confusion about the first fast times recorded but the average of his electronic times was pretty slow.I like Kevin Smith, but he was in no way faster than Mendenhall or Stewart. He had one of the slowest 40 times of all the RB's.Kevin Smith is about to go Curtis Martin on the entire League...You have been warned.He was faster at the combine than Mendenhall and Stewart and you can't argue with the production. The #2 rookie pick is Kevin Smith. ROY
I'm reading on a blog that Smith ran a 4.43 initially and then slipped on his second attempt and still pulled a 4.58 but it killed his average. The guy did have 3 runs over 80 yds last year so I don't question his speed. I'm trying to verify this blog report. Why is the combine info so guarded, lolhttp://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers
As you can see, he wasn't top 10 and both the other 2 were.
http://www.footballsfuture.com/2008/combineRB.htmlFootballs Future has 24K with a 4.43, which would put him near the top (READ: ahead of Mendenhall/Stewart) of the class. He has the speed, i'm just trying to confirm the report that he slipped on his second attempt. As I said previously, he will be a BEAST. #2 pick, and probably a lead candidate for ROY right out of the gates.I'm reading on a blog that Smith ran a 4.43 initially and then slipped on his second attempt and still pulled a 4.58 but it killed his average. The guy did have 3 runs over 80 yds last year so I don't question his speed. I'm trying to verify this blog report. Why is the combine info so guarded, lolhttp://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers
As you can see, he wasn't top 10 and both the other 2 were.
I saw both runs. I didn't see him slip.Where's EBF and his "triangle" of measureables? Smith wasn't in the top 10 in any of the key tests. He didn't achieve results comparable to almost every successful NFL back. He had an amazing season, and the comparison to Lawrence McCutcheon is fair, but McCutcheon also lacked respectable measureables.I'm reading on a blog that Smith ran a 4.43 initially and then slipped on his second attempt and still pulled a 4.58 but it killed his average. The guy did have 3 runs over 80 yds last year so I don't question his speed. I'm trying to verify this blog report. Why is the combine info so guarded, lolhttp://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers
As you can see, he wasn't top 10 and both the other 2 were.
Alluro, I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I followed his 40 time story closely. There was a big confusion and the misinformation is still out there. The guy has 4.6 speed according to the NFL's electronic timers. Scott Wright went into detail to explain this when people at his site were siting the same information you're siting. The fast times are not possibly false reporting. They are simply wrong.http://www.footballsfuture.com/2008/combineRB.htmlFootballs Future has 24K with a 4.43, which would put him near the top (READ: ahead of Mendenhall/Stewart) of the class. He has the speed, i'm just trying to confirm the report that he slipped on his second attempt. As I said previously, he will be a BEAST. #2 pick, and probably a lead candidate for ROY right out of the gates.I'm reading on a blog that Smith ran a 4.43 initially and then slipped on his second attempt and still pulled a 4.58 but it killed his average. The guy did have 3 runs over 80 yds last year so I don't question his speed. I'm trying to verify this blog report. Why is the combine info so guarded, lolhttp://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers
As you can see, he wasn't top 10 and both the other 2 were.
Did Smith do those drills? in the previous footballsfuture report they don't have anything listed for smith under shuttle and cone drill..his vertical was only one inch lower than McDaddy. Stewart and Mendenhall both had impressive verticals, i'll give them that.I saw both runs. I didn't see him slip.Where's EBF and his "triangle" of measureables? Smith wasn't in the top 10 in any of the key tests. He didn't achieve results comparable to almost every successful NFL back. He had an amazing season, and the comparison to Lawrence McCutcheon is fair, but McCutcheon also lacked respectable measureables.I'm reading on a blog that Smith ran a 4.43 initially and then slipped on his second attempt and still pulled a 4.58 but it killed his average. The guy did have 3 runs over 80 yds last year so I don't question his speed. I'm trying to verify this blog report. Why is the combine info so guarded, lolhttp://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers
As you can see, he wasn't top 10 and both the other 2 were.