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2007 - 881 yards in 13 games2006 - 771 yards in 13 gamesThat's 63.5 yards/game, which equates to 1,000+ receiving yards in a 16 game season.A workout warrior is someone whose stock soars solely because of workout numbers. Keller isn't a workout warrior. His college production is off the charts for a TE.
Incorrect, and not sure what comparison you're making. Could you elaborate?
Fargas will not be getting significant playing time, Parker will.
I didn't say anyone was useless, I said they don't warrant anything but a late round pick, if that. 'Useless' is your word.
I assume you're talking about last year. Again you're comparing RBs who split carries to those who don't.
There is a big difference between 700yard and 1300 yard (600 for those who are counting).You're only chance at a valid point would be your Fargas argument (since he theoretically could steal carries from McFadden), but that won't happen, IMO. If circumstances remain constant, McFadden and Forte will get more carries than anyone other rookies because they don't have any real competition. Anything can happen during the pre-season, and even the regular season, but smart owners stick with RBs who get the majority of the carries for their respective teams, and right now McFadden and Forte seem to be the two candidates to get significant touches.
He was a day 2 TE pre-combine, don't think you can cite his college #'s without also noting he basically played WR, the guy is an awful blocker.I've been writing it since March, Dustin Keller = Martin Rucker. Both are glorified WR's, Rucker was a good value, Keller was an awful reach.2007 - 881 yards in 13 games2006 - 771 yards in 13 gamesThat's 63.5 yards/game, which equates to 1,000+ receiving yards in a 16 game season.A workout warrior is someone whose stock soars solely because of workout numbers. Keller isn't a workout warrior. His college production is off the charts for a TE.
Do you want your FF TE to bust the seam or stay in and block ?He was a day 2 TE pre-combine, don't think you can cite his college #'s without also noting he basically played WR, the guy is an awful blocker.I've been writing it since March, Dustin Keller = Martin Rucker. Both are glorified WR's, Rucker was a good value, Keller was an awful reach.2007 - 881 yards in 13 games2006 - 771 yards in 13 gamesThat's 63.5 yards/game, which equates to 1,000+ receiving yards in a 16 game season.A workout warrior is someone whose stock soars solely because of workout numbers. Keller isn't a workout warrior. His college production is off the charts for a TE.
I'm not sure how anyone could think Oakland will be anything BUT RBBC... McFadden will certainly get a ton of opps, but so will Fargas and maybe Bush. This is going to be a running team. Russell is not ready to shoulder the team, their OL is designed to run block, not pass block. I just can't see any of the OAK RBS being the 300 carry guy.McFadden will probably see a lot of touches in the passing game too, so he will have value.Honestly, every single RB drafted this year that sees time, will see it in some sort of committeeI agree you want to see RBs who see a lot of touches... but you have to consider talent foremost. Forte doesn't belong in the top-5 in talent, even if he gets touches. And I could see some guys with less touches outperforming him.
I want him on the field. I want him in the red zone. Do you want a TE who will play in 75% of formations or one who plays in only 25%? A TE who cant block doesnt see the field much. The less he sees the field, the less patterns he runs. The less patterns, the less targets. The less targets, the less FF production. Why are there so few good FF TEs? This is why I consider the coaching staff. Some systems are more likely to produce a good FF TE than others. This draft class has no elite TE prospect in it and Keller's situation doesnt look promiseing.
They moved up to get him for a reason don't you think ? They'll find ways to get him the ball.
I thought it was clear.
At the time, Jackson was the backup for one of the NFL's best. The Joneses were both "true starters", so by your own logic, you would have drafted them over Jackson. It happens every year, people look too short term in rookie drafts.I eagerly await your rebuttal on why you'd pass on Stew and Mendenhall for Forte, but would have selected Jackson over Jones or Jones.
1. "parody" (I just found it funny, sorry about the bad taste in jokes)2. It depends on your league, some leagues value IDPs more than mine. I just don't see these LBs as elite talents, and I won't select lesser IDP talent in the 1st. Willis and Vilma are the only LBs recently whom I would have. Obviously I was wrong on Ryans.Not sure what you're getting at here, the RB's I believe in most at this point will be available in the 2nd and probably later, the WR I like most (Jordy Nelson) should fall to the 2nd, Dustin Keller's a workout warrior, and the QB crop is bad. No doubt in my mind I go LB in an IDP rookie draft after those 7 are off the board.
Not sure what your point is, I think Rucker and Keller are similar players, that was my point - both are glorified WR's in my eyes, neither can block. The difference? One was a 1st round pick, the other was a 4th - the difference between a solid combine and an average one...and a bad pick vs. a good one.Do you want your FF TE to bust the seam or stay in and block ?He was a day 2 TE pre-combine, don't think you can cite his college #'s without also noting he basically played WR, the guy is an awful blocker.I've been writing it since March, Dustin Keller = Martin Rucker. Both are glorified WR's, Rucker was a good value, Keller was an awful reach.2007 - 881 yards in 13 games2006 - 771 yards in 13 gamesThat's 63.5 yards/game, which equates to 1,000+ receiving yards in a 16 game season.A workout warrior is someone whose stock soars solely because of workout numbers. Keller isn't a workout warrior. His college production is off the charts for a TE.
That's just...like...your opinion, man.I think a lot of people will regret passing on Keller. I've already laid out the reasons why he should be considered inside the top 10 of rookie drafts, so I'll leave it at that.Not sure what your point is, I think Rucker and Keller are similar players, that was my point - both are glorified WR's in my eyes, neither can block. The difference? One was a 1st round pick, the other was a 4th - the difference between a solid combine and an average one...and a bad pick vs. a good one.Do you want your FF TE to bust the seam or stay in and block ?He was a day 2 TE pre-combine, don't think you can cite his college #'s without also noting he basically played WR, the guy is an awful blocker.I've been writing it since March, Dustin Keller = Martin Rucker. Both are glorified WR's, Rucker was a good value, Keller was an awful reach.
Yes, I think they did. I think he could someday see the field 50 percent of the time or even more. That still doesnt make him a good FF TE. Like I've continuously said, few TEs hold much dynasty value over an extended period. The point I was makeing is that blocking ability is very important for FF production from a TE. More important for all but the elite few (of which there is none in this draft), is the coaching staff. Winslow is not a good comparison because Winslow was a pro bowl (acutally much better than that) quality NFL TE before he ever signed an NFL contract. Keller wouldnt even play in the college senior bowl because he wasnt a good enough blocker to play in that scheme. Keller is a project as an NFL TE. He's an athletic converted WR. He'll start out as a situational and probably special teams player with the hopes that he can make a bigger transition someday.lord_helmet said:
I don't buy it. Teams don't take a guy in the first round with the intention of sitting him on the bench. The Jets drafted Keller to make plays and they're going to give him an opportunity to do that. He presents a mismatch every time he's on the field because he's more athletic than most linebackers and a lot stronger than most defensive backs. He probably won't have a huge rookie year, but I don't see any reason why he can't eventually reach the Chris Cooley level. He's a similar player with much better overall athleticism.
I think Chris Cooley level is fair- but far from a lock. It is worth remembering that Ben Watson and Dallas Clark were extremely athletic TE's drafted in the first round. In their 9 combined seasons in the NFL, the have produced a total of two top 10 finishes. If I were to guess, I would place Keller's production in years 2-3, between Watson and Cooley.
MAC is right. prior to the combine rucker was the higher ranked te and most drafts sites had keller ranked 5th or later and no one had him as the #1 te or a day 1 pick. jeff haseley and MAC were the only people here to even mention him prior to the combine. no one on fbgs was even talking him up until his superman performance at the combine lifted him over a full round. i don't live far from purdue and keller was never looked upon as an elite te prospect. he was an oversized wr playing for the big 10's most pass happy offenses.
Keller had more receiving yards in his final college season than Watson had in his entire Georgia career. He's also a better athlete across the board:Ben Watson
Fair enough, but does it really matter what a bunch of ill-informed pundits thought about him before the combine? When push came to shove, he was a first round pick. When people look back on this draft ten years from now, that's the bottom line they're going to see. Dustin Keller was the first TE drafted and the only receiving prospect picked in the first round. To me, that's what's most relevant. The fact that six months ago people thought he'd be picked below this guy or that guy doesn't matter.MAC is right. prior to the combine rucker was the higher ranked te and most drafts sites had keller ranked 5th or later and no one had him as the #1 te or a day 1 pick. jeff haseley and MAC were the only people here to even mention him prior to the combine. no one on fbgs was even talking him up until his superman performance at the combine lifted him over a full round. i don't live far from purdue and keller was never looked upon as an elite te prospect. he was an oversized wr playing for the big 10's most pass happy offenses.
They're the only stats we have to go by. Keller had nearly twice as many career receiving yards as Watson.Go back and read scouting reports about Watson. He was always looked at as a project with suspect inherent receiving skills.Keller is not a project. He's just a little bit undersized and a bad blocker. He's a great receiver though.
Only one of those guys was a first round pick. He had a 1,000 yard season and was at one point a consensus top 20 dynasty WR.No one ever considered the other two elite NFL prospects.
the combine changed everyone's mind on him. a great te prospect should show enough on the field to raise talks about him and it took his combine performance before anyone really did. maybe those ill-informed pundits got it wrong or weren't watching enough games. i'm just leary of guys who jump more than a full round because of an athletic event or aren't being talked about much before a bunch of overrated measurements. i'm not totally against keller since i think the jets is a perfect landing for him since they have a blocking te in franks and the offense needs playmakers.Fair enough, but does it really matter what a bunch of ill-informed pundits thought about him before the combine? When push came to shove, he was a first round pick. When people look back on this draft ten years from now, that's the bottom line they're going to see. Dustin Keller was the first TE drafted and the only receiving prospect picked in the first round. To me, that's what's most relevant. The fact that six months ago people thought he'd be picked below this guy or that guy doesn't matter.MAC is right. prior to the combine rucker was the higher ranked te and most drafts sites had keller ranked 5th or later and no one had him as the #1 te or a day 1 pick. jeff haseley and MAC were the only people here to even mention him prior to the combine. no one on fbgs was even talking him up until his superman performance at the combine lifted him over a full round. i don't live far from purdue and keller was never looked upon as an elite te prospect. he was an oversized wr playing for the big 10's most pass happy offenses.
That wasn't my point, my point was college production in pass-happy offenses do not mean anything when translating to the NFL, and if we're going to point out college stats allow me to provide Rucker's Sr season - 884/8 (more than Keller's 881/7) in a similar offense to that of Purdue's. Keller wasn't looked at as a first round talent until he jumped 38" and ran the fastest 40 + 3 cone at the combine, that day he went from day 2 to 1st round, in other words - a workout warrior.
Says who? You never know if a player is "looked at as a first round talent" until teams actually make the picks. Everything leading up to that is pure speculation. Teams generally don't come out and tell everyone what they really think of a prospect. So I don't think you can really prove what people thought of Keller back in January. It's quite possible that lots of teams were just as high on him.Also, the combine is not an irrelevant data point. Having freakish workout numbers is a good thing. We all know the stories about busts like Troy Williamson and Matt Jones, but there have also been plenty of good "workout warriors" like Antonio Cromartie, Joseph Addai, and Anthony Gonzalez.
IMO, usually, the player who is 16 lbs. heavier, but only 0.04 seconds slower on the 40 and about the same with the 20 yard shuttle is at least an equal athlete. Keller did better with the other drills, but Watson was no slouch for his size.
Clearly Keller was a better college player.I think he will be good. I do think Clark is a better comparison. It is worth keeping in mind that it took Clark 5 years to crack the 10 ten as a FF TE. So if you are drafting a TE early, generally you need to be prepared to have patience.FWIW, Watson ran a 4.41 on his pro day and benched 225 34 times.
I live in Big 10 country, I wouldn't be so persistent about this kid's prospects if I hadn't been clued into him throughout his college career. He was always looked at as a WR in a TE's body that can't/won't block playing in a pass happy system. Never was he ever thought to be a top NFL prospect, maybe by the Jets (I don't know) but given their past draft's I'm less inclined to believe in their opinion. His stock never raised until he blew away at the combine, he was still the same player as before...just looked good in t-shirt & shorts. He's never looked 'great' on the field, good? Sure, but great? Hardly.I don't view the combine as irrelevant, but I do believe that raising or dropping someone's stock significantly based on the results the combine yields is inherently dumb, I'll fight that until I'm definitively proven otherwise. It should be used as a validation tool and little more, if it seems too good to be true it probably is. I also don't seem to recall Gonz blowing away at the combine, I thought he did well but blow away good? I don't remember that, I thought he'd be undervalued entering the draft and was glad the Colts proved me wrong. He was the best WR to be drafted out of Ohio St last year...even if he went 21 picks after their other WR.
Rucker will turn out to be the best TE in this draft. Tamme would be if he didn't have Clark in front of him. Both are better than Keller.
I actually agree....
:( Jones IS a mini-LT
And Vernon Davis was an elite TE prospect picked in the top 5 of the NFL draft. This is why with the rare exception of a Winslow or Shockey, I dont get very excited about rookie TEs. One who isnt a complete TE could take a long time to develope any fantasy potential. One who doesnt have the complete package and elite ability is only going to have the fantasy production his coaching staff allows him to have. Keller's upside is some flash in the pan production while playing in the right system at the right time. Chris Cooley's FF production is about to take a big hit as Washington makes major changes to their offense. Chris Cooley is bigger and a more established blocker than Keller. Watson was also very intelligent as well as athletic and has actually had a solid NFL career justifying his draft spot... yet nothing spectacular for your fantasy team. Dallas Clark's FF value would be even less than it is playing for the Jets instead of the Colts. I'd rather look for a good complete TE prospect walking into a great situation such as Zach Miller did in Oakland. I think Seattle offers one of those situations.
People always forget that Indy starts two TEs.Clark won't be in front of Tamme -- he'll be next to him.
