Just a friendly reminder here from jwvdcw....
-remember that Holt was never considered a top 5 WR, yet alone a top 3 WR, before this year. He was always a consensus top 10 guy, but never a super stud. HE HAD ONE AMAZING YEAR OF SUPER STUD STATUS.
I think you are overstating the one year wonder factor. In 2000, he was 4 fantasy points out of the top 5 (Derrick Alexander was #5 with 204 fantasy points, Holt had 200 at WR7). In 2001, he was 10 fantasy points out of the top 5 (Moss had 188 at WR5, Holt had 178).
That doesn't remotely compare to guys like Moss and Harrison. Didn't David Boston also have that one awesome year and made the big 3 into the big 4 for a year just like Holt is doing now(2 to 3).
First of all, I haven't seen anyone suggesting Holt has outperformed Moss and/or Harrison. However, only those two and Owens have been consistently better than Holt over the past 4 seasons.To compare him to David Boston is laughable. Boston only had one season in which he reached 1200 yards. Holt has been over 1300 for 4 straight seasons. On top of that, Holt has not missed a game and has been a class act on and off the field. No worries about him playing every Sunday.
-With Jackson in the backfield along with Faulk now, I'm guessing that all goaline situations will focus on the run, which could hurt Holt's TD numbers.
Key word = guessing.Last season, Holt had 27 targets in the red zone, resulting in 5 TDs. I agree that odds are that number will drop. That said, suppose you remove all 5 TDs, along with the maximum 100 yards for those 5 catches. Last season, that still would have left him ranked as WR2.
-Remember Bulger still doesn't seem to inspire much confidence in the coaching staff. And now they have no solid backup with Warner gone.
How concerned can they be given that they just let Warner walk, didn't sign another QB, and signed Bulger to a 4 year contract worth ~$19 million, with a 9 million signing bonus?And the guy threw for 3845 yards and 22 TDs last season in 15 games. How is that bad for Holt?
I'm not saying he'll be a total bust, but I much rather have C Johnson or Ward a few picks later than Holt in the late 2nd.
If you are saying that in a given draft you could either pick Holt or pick another player and pick Johnson/Ward with your next pick, I might agree... but I would have to assess Holt + later pick vs. alternate pick + Johnson/Ward.If you are saying you would trade down a few spots and take Johnson/Ward instead of taking Holt with your original pick, I would probably agree, assuming you get something of value for trading down.But in the vast majority of cases, I doubt you can pass on Holt and then get Johnson/Ward with your next pick. In that case, your example doesn't hold.