How Is Josh Allen Ranked As #1 QB Given That . . . (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

FBG's has Allen as their #1 ranked fantasy QB heading into the 2024 season. That doesn't strike me as unreasonable or some outlandish hot take. However, digging a little deeper and looking at the rest of the Bills player rankings, there isn't a WR ranked in the Top 50 and the only receiving target that remotely falls in the fantasy starter category is Dalton Kincaid (who FBG's has ranked as TE5). I believe Allen is projected to fall in the 4150 passing yards / 27 passing TD range.

I am not sure there is a combination or outcome where all of those things can mutually coexist. I don't think we've ever seen the #1 fantasy QB in a season have no fantasy startable WR without the benefit of the top TE in the league. This leads me to believe that the supporting cast is being under projected or Allen is being overvalued for this season. Or put another way, if the Bills WRs and TEs produce at the level of their rankings, I am not sure that adds up to passing totals for Allen to be the top fantasy QB.

Anyone else wondering about this?

 

[msudaisy26]

Not when you are qb with the rushing upside of 1k yards and 15 touchdowns.

 

[jabarony]

I'm guessing it's certainty in Allen + the offense's ability to put up points. And on the other end, uncertainty on which WRs/TEs will be the beneficiaries. By year's end, I'd bet there's a Bills WR in the top 50. Maybe even 2.

But if you are drafting NFL WRs for your fantasy team, FBG rankings are more confident in WR 47, 48, & 49 than Shakir, because it could be Coleman, or Samuel, or Beasley, or Kumerow etc. that end up compiling more than expected #s.

And yes, of course, Allen's rushing TDs.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

 

[Anarchy99]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

Certainly, anything is possible, but I don't remember too many teams that had 4 players with 700+ receiving yards and 5-7 TD. As for his rushing totals, he's had double digit TDs once and his career high is 763 rushing yards (in 6 seasons). I would take the under on a 1000/15 season running the ball. Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB 3 of the last 4 years, so it does seem like he is a good bet to do it again (or close to it). I was more thinking that it's the supporting cast that is getting overlooked somehow.

 

[Gally]

I'm guessing it's certainty in Allen + the offense's ability to put up points. And on the other end, uncertainty on which WRs/TEs will be the beneficiaries. By year's end, I'd bet there's a Bills WR in the top 50. Maybe even 2.

I think this is exactly how the rankings happened this way. Most believe Allen will put up his normal stats but just don't have confidence on who the new Diggs (or Diggs lite) will be. What this tells me is that targeting Shakir/Samuel/Coleman late is a great approach and hope you get the right one with that late pick. The upside is possible league winner-ish.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

Certainly, anything is possible, but I don't remember too many teams that had 4 players with 700+ receiving yards and 5-7 TD. As for his rushing totals, he's had double digit TDs once and his career high is 763 rushing yards (in 6 seasons). I would take the under on a 1000/15 season running the ball. Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB 3 of the last 4 years, so it does seem like he is a good bet to do it again (or close to it). I was more thinking that it's the supporting cast that is getting overlooked somehow.

I also think the supporting cast is getting overlooked. I also would take the under of 1000/15 rushing as those represent career highs and are not sustainable. My rough rushing guess is about 750 and 8-10 TDs.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think this is exactly how the rankings happened this way. Most believe Allen will put up his normal stats but just don't have confidence on who the new Diggs (or Diggs lite) will be. What this tells me is that targeting Shakir/Samuel/Coleman late is a great approach and hope you get the right one with that late pick. The upside is possible league winner-ish.

Since 2020, here's the fantasy scoring distribution for BUF players (WR and TE) that scored 100+ points in a season since 2020 (PPR scoring):

2020: 329-208-137
2021: 286-162-157-132-126
2022: 321-174-136-120-100
2023: 274-161-152-113

Here are what the current projections are set at for 2024 for guys slated to have 100+ points: 195-160-158-152. Off the top, there has usually been 2 players a season over 150 points . . . and the projection is for 4. The top scorer in that time has averaged 303 points a year.

 

[jm192]

I have him at QB1. I have very little of him outside of dynasty. I'd rather wait and go with Dak/Kyler/Love/Burrow.

I said in the "Who finishes #1" thread Mahommes. And I think there's a really good chance of that. But I think Allen's ceiling is the highest with the rushing upside and insane passing ability.

The weapon issue: I think they're good enough. I think Allen is such an elite passer, he'll be the tide that lifts all ships. Things will be more spread out for the WR's. You may not have anyone break 1,000 yards in the WR room.

I also think Kincaid has TE1 overall upside. I think he's a guy who could have over 1,000 yards given the QB and the opportunity. He's crazy talented, and there's a reason they drafted him as high as they did.

And at the end of the day, if the pass catchers aren't getting it done, he'll run more. They say every year they want him to run less. But as they say, everyone's got a plan before they get punched in the mouth.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I'm guessing it's certainty in Allen + the offense's ability to put up points. And on the other end, uncertainty on which WRs/TEs will be the beneficiaries. By year's end, I'd bet there's a Bills WR in the top 50. Maybe even 2.

But if you are drafting NFL WRs for your fantasy team, FBG rankings are more confident in WR 47, 48, & 49 than Shakir, because it could be Coleman, or Samuel, or Beasley, or Kumerow etc. that end up compiling more than expected #s.

And yes, of course, Allen's rushing TDs.

I think this nails it. It’s likely at least one of the receivers will be a #2 fantasy receiver and at least one other one be spot startable with some other guys chipping in. The problem is identifying who those guys are. It’s like when you have a team with a true RBBC going into a season. You know one of those guys is probably going to come out ahead and be starts me at some point, but the uncertainty lowers all of the RBs’ values when drafting.

If you want to look at a really recent situation comp, just look at Jordan Love last year. 4,100 yards passing with 32 passing TDs and nobody had over 800 yards receiving on the team.

 

[msudaisy26]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

Certainly, anything is possible, but I don't remember too many teams that had 4 players with 700+ receiving yards and 5-7 TD. As for his rushing totals, he's had double digit TDs once and his career high is 763 rushing yards (in 6 seasons). I would take the under on a 1000/15 season running the ball. Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB 3 of the last 4 years, so it does seem like he is a good bet to do it again (or close to it). I was more thinking that it's the supporting cast that is getting overlooked somehow.

I also think the supporting cast is getting overlooked. I also would take the under of 1000/15 rushing as those represent career highs and are not sustainable. My rough rushing guess is about 750 and 8-10 TDs.

I said that is his upside everyone in the world is taking that under. Let's say he has 750 and 10 rushing. That equals
1750 passing yards and 15 touchdowns vs. the regular pocket passers. Now add in his regular projection of 4k and 30 and you get 5750 yards passing and 45 touchdowns. That seems like qb 1 overall potential to me.
Edit fixed my numbers.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'm guessing it's certainty in Allen + the offense's ability to put up points. And on the other end, uncertainty on which WRs/TEs will be the beneficiaries. By year's end, I'd bet there's a Bills WR in the top 50. Maybe even 2.

But if you are drafting NFL WRs for your fantasy team, FBG rankings are more confident in WR 47, 48, & 49 than Shakir, because it could be Coleman, or Samuel, or Beasley, or Kumerow etc. that end up compiling more than expected #s.

And yes, of course, Allen's rushing TDs.

This is the answer.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I did some projections and had Allen QB1 with 4500 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 600/8 on the ground. Samuel, Coleman and Shakir all between 840-890 yards, Kincaid with 775/7.

I realize I may be too high on Coleman but I think he has ceiling that the other guys don't. Samuel has the best chance to be a low end WR2 and is a safer bet to have a floor IMO.

 

[Anarchy99]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

Certainly, anything is possible, but I don't remember too many teams that had 4 players with 700+ receiving yards and 5-7 TD. As for his rushing totals, he's had double digit TDs once and his career high is 763 rushing yards (in 6 seasons). I would take the under on a 1000/15 season running the ball. Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB 3 of the last 4 years, so it does seem like he is a good bet to do it again (or close to it). I was more thinking that it's the supporting cast that is getting overlooked somehow.

I also think the supporting cast is getting overlooked. I also would take the under of 1000/15 rushing as those represent career highs and are not sustainable. My rough rushing guess is about 750 and 8-10 TDs.

I said that is his upside everyone in the world is taking that under. Let's say he has 750 and 10 rushing. That equals
1750 passing yards and 15 touchdowns vs. the regular pocket passers. Now add in his regular projection of 4k and 30 and you get 5750 yards passing and 45 touchdowns. That seems like qb 1 overall potential to me.
Edit fixed my numbers.

In 6 seasons, Allen has averaged 600 rushing yards per season and did not have a double-digit rushing TD season before last year. Dropping his first two seasons out of the equation passing wise, he's averaged 4385/34 the past 4 years. I don't expect him to suddenly go crazy running the ball, so I am more intrigued where his passing totals will come from. Put another way, if he ends up with 3800-3900 passing yards and 25 or 25 passing TD, I don't think he would be the #1 fantasy QB (although he would still be in the upper tier of QBs).

 

[msudaisy26]

Kincaid 950/7
Samuel 700/5
Shakir 750/6
Coleman 700/6
James Cook 450/3
Knox 350/3

That totals 3900/30 There should also be others catching passes and some of those above numbers can be moved around among each other or the others I have not listed. Add to that like msudaisy said his 700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs, yeah, QB1 is quite attainable.

Certainly, anything is possible, but I don't remember too many teams that had 4 players with 700+ receiving yards and 5-7 TD. As for his rushing totals, he's had double digit TDs once and his career high is 763 rushing yards (in 6 seasons). I would take the under on a 1000/15 season running the ball. Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB 3 of the last 4 years, so it does seem like he is a good bet to do it again (or close to it). I was more thinking that it's the supporting cast that is getting overlooked somehow.

I also think the supporting cast is getting overlooked. I also would take the under of 1000/15 rushing as those represent career highs and are not sustainable. My rough rushing guess is about 750 and 8-10 TDs.

I said that is his upside everyone in the world is taking that under. Let's say he has 750 and 10 rushing. That equals
1750 passing yards and 15 touchdowns vs. the regular pocket passers. Now add in his regular projection of 4k and 30 and you get 5750 yards passing and 45 touchdowns. That seems like qb 1 overall potential to me.
Edit fixed my numbers.

In 6 seasons, Allen has averaged 600 rushing yards per season and did not have a double-digit rushing TD season before last year. Dropping his first two seasons out of the equation passing wise, he's averaged 4385/34 the past 4 years. I don't expect him to suddenly go crazy running the ball, so I am more intrigued where his passing totals will come from. Put another way, if he ends up with 3800-3900 passing yards and 25 or 25 passing TD, I don't think he would be the #1 fantasy QB (although he would still be in the upper tier of QBs).

You said it yourself. His receivers aren't good, you don't think he would take off and run more often if his receivers can't get open?

 

[Anarchy99]

You said it yourself. His receivers aren't good, you don't think he would take off and run more often if his receivers can't get open?

I never said anything about the quality or capabilities of his receivers. All I cited was what their FBG projections and expectations were. I still think BUF will have the same offensive approach, the same routes and offensive philosophy, and Allen will have a similar number of passing attempts (approximately 575). Similarly, I would expect a similar number of rushing attempts for Allen (110-120). For me, the question becomes whether the current set of puzzle pieces added together will reach the 4385/34 average from recent years and who gets what share of it.

 

[travdogg]

Allen only had 1 game below QB9 once Joe Brady took over, and that was that weird Dallas game, where Dallas didn't show up.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

You said it yourself. His receivers aren't good, you don't think he would take off and run more often if his receivers can't get open?

I never said anything about the quality or capabilities of his receivers. All I cited was what their FBG projections and expectations were. I still think BUF will have the same offensive approach, the same routes and offensive philosophy, and Allen will have a similar number of passing attempts (approximately 575). Similarly, I would expect a similar number of rushing attempts for Allen (110-120). For me, the question becomes whether the current set of puzzle pieces added together will reach the 4385/34 average from recent years and who gets what share of it.

Just out of curiosity, what stats do you project for Allen and his surrounding cast?

 

[Anarchy99]

Just out of curiosity, what stats do you project for Allen and his surrounding cast?

I don't really play much fantasy these days and haven't done projections for years. I can give this one some thought, but IMO the most likely outcome is Kincaid does a little better than is projected, one WR takes over as the primary guy (but two others don't become as involved), and Allen's total passing numbers drop a little bit. I would also guess his rushing TD total will drop off some, and that outcome could knock Allen down to QB2 or QB3. But that wouldn't deter me from drafting him. My overall assessment would be his ceiling and his floor both dropped for this year.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Just out of curiosity, what stats do you project for Allen and his surrounding cast?

I don't really play much fantasy these days and haven't done projections for years. I can give this one some thought, but IMO the most likely outcome is Kincaid does a little better than is projected, one WR takes over as the primary guy (but two others don't become as involved), and Allen's total passing numbers drop a little bit. I would also guess his rushing TD total will drop off some, and that outcome could knock Allen down to QB2 or QB3. But that wouldn't deter me from drafting him. My overall assessment would be his ceiling and his floor both dropped for this year.

I don’t really do granular projections, but your assessment seems completely rational to me.

 

[titusbramble]

I'm not wondering about who catches Diglett's targets, as long as somebody does, no

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm less interested in what happens with Allen . . . I wouldn't draft a QB that high in a redraft league. I am more interested in the other guys. Allen's passing numbers exploded when Diggs came to town. Diggs averaged close to 10 targets per game in his 4 years there, and if there is someone one the Bills roster that is going to get a majority share of that, he's someone that could be had for cheap at the moment.

 

[Deamon]

700-1000 rush yards and likely double digit TDs

I think last year was definitely an outlier in his rushing stats.

He has NEVER had a season with 800 rushing yards (last year was 524), I really don't see 1000 being possible, and highly doubt he even hits 700 since he seems to be running less these days.

Last year he had 15 rushing TD's which was nuts. Previous years were: 8, 9, 8, 6, 7.

He has hinted in interviews of needing to run the ball less this year too. I predict 500 Rushing Yards and 8-9 Rushing TDs.

He can still be QB1 with those numbers for sure, as I think his passing numbers could actually improve from last year.... but I really don't think 700-1000 and double digit rushing TDs is likely at all.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Last year there was somewhat of a reverse situation where Purdy was ranked very low compared to where his targets were going. Purdy ended up as a solid value.

 

[Deamon]

I'm less interested in what happens with Allen . . . I wouldn't draft a QB that high in a redraft league. I am more interested in the other guys. Allen's passing numbers exploded when Diggs came to town. Diggs averaged close to 10 targets per game in his 4 years there, and if there is someone one the Bills roster that is going to get a majority share of that, he's someone that could be had for cheap at the moment.

I think it will be spread around quite a bit.

From 2015-2021, The Eagles didn't have a single WR hit 1000 in those SEVEN SEASONS! Wentz still had some big passing years those years despite that, especially 2019.

 

[satch]

Count me among those concerned about Allen in 2024. I get his rushing upside and all, but that only goes so far. Given his weapons, there’s a world in which his passing numbers are really bad with lots of INTs. Kincaid is fine, but can he really be an unstoppable focal point of a passing game?

Also, it stands to reason that Allen’s outlandish rushing stats in 2023 were possible because he had legit weapons that defenses had to account for. If Buffalo’s WRs don’t scare defenses, Allen may not have that kind if room to run in 2024.

Could be a real down year for Buffalo and I envision an angry, frustrated Josh Allen who may not think it’s worth running all over the place and taking a beating all season long for nothing.

In fact, in a keeper league, I’ve been offered a package deal that includes Allen for Stroud. I know Allen is ranked way higher everywhere, but I can’t convince myself that Allen will be better than Stroud going forward. I know Stroud doesn’t run much, but neither did many elite fantasy QBs, and the stars seem to be aligning for Stroud to join that group.

Feels like Allen’s ranking is entirely based on the past with very little thought given to the present. IMO, Allen is a great sell high right now given his consensus ranking.

Edited to add that I realize this post may not age well at all, but those are my genuine thoughts at the moment.

 

[Football Jones]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

 

[satch]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

Or it could mean Allen is being overvalued.

 

[Ray_T]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

well, when Allen was a young QB he was starting to break out. similar situation to now. top WR was hard to determine, but an older vet most considered to be finished got 1000 yards Receiving. -John Brown. NOBODY saw that coming. then the bills got diggs and brown went back to his old ways. likely because he was no longer a #1 WR in the offense.

this lesson learned a couple years back tells me the #1 WR likely can get 1000 yards thought I probably assume at the draft table he gets 800 yards and draft accordingly. so whowever you think is likely to be the #1 you draft as your WR4 (or a low end WR3) and if you get 1000 yards, you win the lotto. its that simple

 

[Ray_T]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

well, when Allen was a young QB he was starting to break out. similar situation to now. top WR was hard to determine, but an older vet most considered to be finished got 1000 yards Receiving. -John Brown. NOBODY saw that coming. then the bills got diggs and brown went back to his old ways. likely because he was no longer a #1 WR in the offense.

this lesson learned a couple years back tells me the #1 WR likely can get 1000 yards thought I probably assume at the draft table he gets 800 yards and draft accordingly. so whowever you think is likely to be the #1 you draft as your WR4 (or a low end WR3) and if you get 1000 yards, you win the lotto. its that simple

to finish this. Allen fully broke out the next year.

 

[satch]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

well, when Allen was a young QB he was starting to break out. similar situation to now. top WR was hard to determine, but an older vet most considered to be finished got 1000 yards Receiving. -John Brown. NOBODY saw that coming. then the bills got diggs and brown went back to his old ways. likely because he was no longer a #1 WR in the offense.

this lesson learned a couple years back tells me the #1 WR likely can get 1000 yards thought I probably assume at the draft table he gets 800 yards and draft accordingly. so whowever you think is likely to be the #1 you draft as your WR4 (or a low end WR3) and if you get 1000 yards, you win the lotto. its that simple

to finish this. Allen fully broke out the next year.

Arguably due in large part to Diggs. Now Diggs is gone, Allen’s left with a bunch of JAGs, and we’re not expecting his numbers to suffer? At all?

Meanwhile, an ascendant Stroud added Diggs to Collins and Dell, yet Stroud is ranked way behind Allen. It just doesn’t add up to me given their current situations. Things do change in fantasy football, often quickly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Personally I’ve faded him slightly. But he’s still in the top tier.

It’s the rushing upside for me.

But he’s a player I’ll never own, because I won’t draft any QB that high in redraft.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Arguably due in large part to Diggs. Now Diggs is gone, Allen’s left with a bunch of JAGs, and we’re not expecting his numbers to suffer? At all?

For Allen’s FF output I’m more concerned about whether or not the replacements can block as good as Gabe Davis.

 

[Ray_T]

No way in hell Kincaid is their leading receiver, which means one or more WRs are being undervalued.

For one, he simply isn’t good enough (like a Kelce, who can be his team’s leading receiver). Secondly, Knox will likely take away a fair amount of snaps.

well, when Allen was a young QB he was starting to break out. similar situation to now. top WR was hard to determine, but an older vet most considered to be finished got 1000 yards Receiving. -John Brown. NOBODY saw that coming. then the bills got diggs and brown went back to his old ways. likely because he was no longer a #1 WR in the offense.

this lesson learned a couple years back tells me the #1 WR likely can get 1000 yards thought I probably assume at the draft table he gets 800 yards and draft accordingly. so whowever you think is likely to be the #1 you draft as your WR4 (or a low end WR3) and if you get 1000 yards, you win the lotto. its that simple

to finish this. Allen fully broke out the next year.

Arguably due in large part to Diggs. Now Diggs is gone, Allen’s left with a bunch of JAGs, and we’re not expecting his numbers to suffer? At all?

Meanwhile, an ascendant Stroud added Diggs to Collins and Dell, yet Stroud is ranked way behind Allen. It just doesn’t add up to me given their current situations. Things do change in fantasy football, often quickly.

yea, but to counter this.... diggs really did nothing in the second half of last year. Not sure if he was pouting because of whatever reason or if its a case where hes getting older and starting the decline.

so in the end, while Allen will miss diggs, I dont know that he will miss him by as much as people think

 

[Ray_T]

Personally I’ve faded him slightly. But he’s still in the top tier.

It’s the rushing upside for me.

But he’s a player I’ll never own, because I won’t draft any QB that high in redraft.

yes me too.

I drafted him in a draft as the 2nd QB off the board last year (mahomes was #1) this year I rank him top 5 but not top 3. Thats my personal preference, and it is close. but thats where I have him

 

[Scoresman]

My gut is telling me Allen's body may start to break down soon. He is tough as nails and plays hurt a ton, but the fact is he does get hurt. We've been lucky he hasn't had anything major and also that he plays hurt as much as he does, but how long will that last. This is just a gut feeling of mine.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My gut is telling me Allen's body may start to break down soon. He is tough as nails and plays hurt a ton, but the fact is he does get hurt. We've been lucky he hasn't had anything major and also that he plays hurt as much as he does, but how long will that last. This is just a gut feeling of mine.

I’ve been considering it for a while now. It’s partly why in a dynasty start-up last year I took Mahomes over Allen 1.01

It’s funny how everyone’s worried about ARich, and to a lesser extent Hurts, but Allen gets a pass on this because he’s built like a Mac truck - but he’s made of the same flesh & bone, and one could argue plays with what could be call reckless abandon at times.

When he lowers his shoulder into a safety, or goes airborn trying to get those extra yards - the wheel of fate is spinning every time. One of these times it’s gonna come up

Feels like it’s only a matter of time. While one can’t really predict injury, it’s just very hard to watch him and not believe one’s coming.

 

[Ray_T]

My gut is telling me Allen's body may start to break down soon. He is tough as nails and plays hurt a ton, but the fact is he does get hurt. We've been lucky he hasn't had anything major and also that he plays hurt as much as he does, but how long will that last. This is just a gut feeling of mine.

I’ve been considering it for a while now. It’s partly why in a dynasty start-up last year I took Mahomes over Allen 1.01

It’s funny how everyone’s worried about ARich, and to a lesser extent Hurts, but Allen gets a pass on this because he’s built like a Mac truck - but he’s made of the same flesh & bone, and one could argue plays with what could be call reckless abandon at times.

When he lowers his shoulder into a safety, or goes airborn trying to get those extra yards - the wheel of fate is spinning every time. One of these times it’s gonna come up

Feels like it’s only a matter of time. While one can’t really predict injury, it’s just very hard to watch him and not believe one’s coming.

it is a concern. Josh Allen is not your typical rushing QB though. he actually has the skillset to operate as a drop back passer. so when his athleticism starts to fail (around 29 or 30) he will still be able to play.

unlike many of the other running QB's who are done by the time they hit 30. and I see it in his game too. he starting to stick in the pocket a little more than he did before. so I think the transition is starting. the other difference between him and Newton is Cam newton took some absolute MONSTER hits. he played behind a leaky line and ran with the ball taking huge hits in the process. Josh Allen is a lot more intelligent about it when he runs. hes not taking the same kind of beating.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My gut is telling me Allen's body may start to break down soon. He is tough as nails and plays hurt a ton, but the fact is he does get hurt. We've been lucky he hasn't had anything major and also that he plays hurt as much as he does, but how long will that last. This is just a gut feeling of mine.

I’ve been considering it for a while now. It’s partly why in a dynasty start-up last year I took Mahomes over Allen 1.01

It’s funny how everyone’s worried about ARich, and to a lesser extent Hurts, but Allen gets a pass on this because he’s built like a Mac truck - but he’s made of the same flesh & bone, and one could argue plays with what could be call reckless abandon at times.

When he lowers his shoulder into a safety, or goes airborn trying to get those extra yards - the wheel of fate is spinning every time. One of these times it’s gonna come up

Feels like it’s only a matter of time. While one can’t really predict injury, it’s just very hard to watch him and not believe one’s coming.

it is a concern. Josh Allen is not your typical rushing QB though. he actually has the skillset to operate as a drop back passer. so when his athleticism starts to fail (around 29 or 30) he will still be able to play.

unlike many of the other running QB's who are done by the time they hit 30. and I see it in his game too. he starting to stick in the pocket a little more than he did before. so I think the transition is starting. the other difference between him and Newton is Cam newton took some absolute MONSTER hits. he played behind a leaky line and ran with the ball taking huge hits in the process. Josh Allen is a lot more intelligent about it when he runs. hes not taking the same kind of beating.

I agree - but there's a period in between "reckless" and "pocket passer" where he could take a substantial blow & miss a chunk of time.

Granted, that could happen to any QB, but Allen seems to invite it with some of the hits he takes. He gets in the moment & caution flies to the wind. You can see the joyful exuberance, and I admire the competitive spirit. But it's also kinda dumb, and super risky. lol