Trade down a 5 spot in the draft to 10/11? (1 Viewer)

[cloudofdust]

Sorry if this is a question that's been discussed many times before - as random chance would have it, in every fantasy draft I've ever been part of (in every case a 12 team league) I've been the 9, 10 or 11 spot in the draft order. I've gotten to the point where I really like drafting from there; I've had a lot of success with it. However I just pulled the 5 spot for one of this year's drafts (also a 12 team league - .5 PPR) and now I'm seriously thinking about trying to trade down to 10 or 11, since I'm confident in my ability to draft well from there... however, I'm curious if anyone has any substantive arguments as to why a 10 or 11 spot is objectively better than a 5, all things being equal. In other words, if I do this, I'd like to do it for more reasons than "I feel most comfortable at the end of the snake." Or if you think I'm nuts to trade from 5 to 10/11, I'd love to hear that as well.

Again, apologies if this is a tired question. As you can see this is my first post to the forums here. Thanks for any insights.

EDIT: Sorry admins, thought I posted this in the Assistant Coach forum. Please move as appropriate. My mistake.

 

[rizzler]

Get that stud RB at 5.

This year especially.

I don't feel it needs further explanation.

 

[Bamac]

Get that stud RB at 5.This year especially.I don't feel it needs further explanation.

I'm with rizzler: that 1.05 is too valuable this year. If you're really more comfortable at the end of a snake, see if you can swap your 3rd through 18th round picks with someone in the 10/11 spot.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

I've always felt that the best draft position is wherever your 1st-tier of RB ends. So, if you feel that there are 5 top-tier RBs this year, then the optimal position to draft in the first round is the 5th position. That is because the 5th position allows you to get a top-tier RB, but also provides you with the best possible position in the 2nd round.

The end of the 1st round does provide some security as you'll be able to grab 2 very high quality players, and people who aren't gamblers generally prefer to draft there. But I would stick with your early pick because the WR class is deep this year and you'll be able to get a top-flight WR even toward the end of the 2nd round.

I am currently drafting 3rd in my leagues, and with the injury to Foster and the issues with CJ, I'm considering trading down to the 5th slot myself. I think you should do the same.

 

[fightingillini]

I've always felt that the best draft position is wherever your 1st-tier of RB ends. So, if you feel that there are 5 top-tier RBs this year, then the optimal position to draft in the first round is the 5th position. That is because the 5th position allows you to get a top-tier RB, but also provides you with the best possible position in the 2nd round.The end of the 1st round does provide some security as you'll be able to grab 2 very high quality players, and people who aren't gamblers generally prefer to draft there. But I would stick with your early pick because the WR class is deep this year and you'll be able to get a top-flight WR even toward the end of the 2nd round.I am currently drafting 3rd in my leagues, and with the injury to Foster and the issues with CJ, I'm considering trading down to the 5th slot myself. I think you should do the same.

Agree 100%. There are 5 stud RBs and then a tier break to the Mendenhall/McCoy/MJD/McFadden tier. The 5 spot is great assuming CJ ends his holdout (which I think he will). You will have a great RB1, and you draft #20 in round 2. You will have nice options there.....you can get a good RB2, a top 6 WR (I think after the first 6, there's a tier break), or a top 3 QB, depending how the draft emerges. In most leagues, I would suspect 12-13 RBs will be taken before it gets to you in Round 2. So it's almost guaranteed that you will get a top WR or a top QB with your second round pick. Sign me up for Charles or Rice in Round 1 and someone like Forte/Fitzgerald/Brady in Round 2, depending your league rules. It's a nice start to the draft.I keep the 5 pick.

 

[FUBAR]

I prefer being in the middle, but if the lineups were right, I'd prefer later. For example, if the lineup was 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1Flex I'd rather draft later at the turn and get either two top WRs or a stud QB and WR.

 

[Hanz]

I actually started off in the opposite situation as this one. Drew the 11th pick in my league and swapped slots with the owner who drew the 5th pick. I ended up landing 1.05 Ray Rice 2.08 Hakeem Nicks 3.05 Matt Forte to start the draft.

 

[krugoh]

5th spot is great. Charles, Rice, McCoy, and McFadden are all great choices here in PPR. Not sure why Mendenhall is mentioned for PPR here.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs.

I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.

So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.

QB: Tony Romo, Sam Bradford

RBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario Hardesty

WRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little

TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

 

[krugoh]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

Pretty good draft. I just dont know how I feel about going for romo and having Ingram as my top RB.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Pretty good draft. I just dont know how I feel about going for romo and having Ingram as my top RB.

Yeah, weak(er) RBs are an inevtiable consequence of upside down drafting. I feel good about the fact that I was able to pair Pierre Thomas with Ingram.I really like drafting at the back turn this year because you can be confident that you'll get an opportunity to draft two elite WRs, or 1 elite WR and QB if you prefer that route.

 

[abe froman]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

Pretty good draft. I just dont know how I feel about going for romo and having Ingram as my top RB.

Im interested to know whatthat extra 6th pick landed you? Not sure I like this deal for you. JStew is way overrated this year

 

[da_budman]

Im thinking just the opposite... In my main league we draw for who gets to select draft picks. If I get any of the top 4 picks my plan is to actually select 5th spot and hope Rice falls in my lap there. With the subtraction of 2 backs who stole carries/td's from him I think he is in for a huge year.....

If you said you have the 6th spot I would totally agree with you. I would trade down.

 

[Redzone Warriors]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

I may be missing something, and I don't mean to sound rash, but this team looks like one I would never want to own.

 

[abe froman]

Im thinking just the opposite... In my main league we draw for who gets to select draft picks. If I get any of the top 4 picks my plan is to actually select 5th spot and hope Rice falls in my lap there. With the subtraction of 2 backs who stole carries/td's from him I think he is in for a huge year..... If you said you have the 6th spot I would totally agree with you. I would trade down.

Im not saying Ricky will vulture goalline carries but he is there now..so he will get some work..fwi

 

[Hanz]

Here is what I ended up with from the 5th spot in a non-ppr QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D 12 teamer.

4.08- Ben Roethlisberger, QB

12.08- Joe Flacco, QB

1.05- Ray Rice, RB

3.05- Matt Forte, RB

7.05- Ryan Grant, RB

8.08- Fred Jackson, RB

15.05 Javon Ringer, RB

2.08- Hakeem Nicks, WR

5.05- Percy Harvin, WR

6.08- Austin Collie, WR

11.05- Lance Moore, WR

14.08- Denarius Moore, WR

10.08- Rob Gronkowski, TE

13.05- Greg Olsen, TE

16.08 Alex Henery, PK

9.05- Green Bay, ST/DEF

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

I may be missing something, and I don't mean to sound rash, but this team looks like one I would never want to own.

Totally understand where you're coming from- I was a bit apprehensive about adopting a WR heavy strategy last year, but I ended up drafting the Oakland backfield tandem and Fred Jackson late and the rest was well, history. DMC emerged as a solid #1 and Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Calvin Johnson carried me to the championship.I ended up picking Stewart with the extra 6th rounder. I just felt like he was the best back available at the time. I share the same opinion on him, I'm hoping to deal him before the season starts.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

I may be missing something, and I don't mean to sound rash, but this team looks like one I would never want to own.

Totally understand where you're coming from- I was a bit apprehensive about adopting a WR heavy strategy last year, but I ended up drafting the Oakland backfield tandem and Fred Jackson late and the rest was well, history. DMC emerged as a solid #1 and Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Calvin Johnson carried me to the championship.Keep in mind that the team I described above is a 14 team league.

 

[abe froman]

I ended up trading down from the 5 spot to the 11 in my 14 team non-PPR league and thought I ended up with a GREAT team. Personally, I have a lot more confidence in the RBs available in rounds 5-9 than the WRs. I knew that Ray Rice would probably end up falling to me at 5, but personally I think he'll be marginally better than he was last year. I think he's a solid pick, but one of the downsides of drafting at 5 this year is that you'll miss out on all the first tier WRs.So, I ended up swapping first and second rounders with the guy and he gave me an extra 6th rounder. Here's the way my team ended up in case you're curious.QB: Tony Romo, Sam BradfordRBs: Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Joeseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Williams, Montario HardestyWRs: Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Santonio Holmes, Jacoby Ford, Greg Little TEs: Greg Olsen, Brent Celek

I may be missing something, and I don't mean to sound rash, but this team looks like one I would never want to own.

Totally understand where you're coming from- I was a bit apprehensive about adopting a WR heavy strategy last year, but I ended up drafting the Oakland backfield tandem and Fred Jackson late and the rest was well, history. DMC emerged as a solid #1 and Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Calvin Johnson carried me to the championship.Keep in mind that the team I described above is a 14 team league.

DMC, FJax, Calvin, Nicks, Jennings is a far cry from Ingram, Jstew, Calvin, Nicks, Santonio IMO.

 

[glong989]

Yeah, not sure at all about adopting the upside down draft strategy with a 14 team non PPR.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I also typically end up with a late spot and like drafting their with the idea who will be available for my next pick, but the last few years there has been a clear dropoff around the 6th or so pick. IMO, its a huge advantage to start off your draft with a stud RB and would never trade out of your 5th spot.

FootballJesus' team should also show you why it would not be wise (no offense). To give you another example, I had 2 main teams last year. One I drafted I believe 11th of 12, and my top 2 picks were Moss and Austin, which left me with my best RB being Stewart, although I pulled off a ridiculous trade and got Jahvid, but overall my RBs were left being Best/Stewart/BJGEllis/Jacobs/Tolbert and this team went 6-7 and finished 8th despite also having Nicks, Gates, and Mike Williams. My other team I had the 6th spot, took Andre Johnson because I felt he was the best pick their last year (Id go with a RB 6th this year), but that team won the championship because I had Arian Foster who turned into a stud RB. Of course there's a chance you find this year's Foster, but I wouldnt take that chance.

Keep your pick and get your stud RB.

 

[glong989]

I had 2 main teams last year. One I drafted I believe 11th of 12, and my top 2 picks were Moss and Austin, which left me with my best RB being Stewart

You also got stuck with probably the biggest bust in the first two rounds last season. If you would have had Calvin or Roddy you would probably have been a bit better than 6-7.The upside down strategy of getting two stud WRs if you have a late pick in round one can work, but not if you get unlucky with supposed top 5 WRs in Austin and the black hole that Moss was. I wouldn't recommend trading down out of the top 5 but do it if you really feel comfortable. Top 3 I would say definitely not.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

DMC, FJax, Calvin, Nicks, Jennings is a far cry from Ingram, Jstew, Calvin, Nicks, Santonio IMO.

Do you recall how low DMC and FJax were rated last year? In a lot of drafts they weren't even the first backs taken from their respective teams....If you prefer the security blanket of having a stud RB that's a totally viable option. If you have confidence in your potential ability to select several undervalued backs in the middle rounds and hope they emerge as starters, I just happen to think it's a better option. I happen to think that between Ingram/Thomas, Addai, Ryan Williams, and JStew, I get two starting quality fantasy backs. That combined with elite production at WR and QB could be a recipe for success.To reiterate glong's point, I think that kenny powers got pretty unlucky. There have been very few receivers in NFL history that suffered the drop off Randy Moss had, and Miles Austin's production took a dive when Romo got injured. How did the other top 10 receivers in terms of ADP do?Andre Johnson finished 8th in fantasy points.Reggie Wayne finished 9th.Larry Fitzgerald finished 15th.Calvin Johnson finished 5th.Roddy White finished 3rd.Brandon Marshall finished 29th.Greg Jennings finished 4th.Desean Jackson finished 11th.Pretty much any other combination of top 10 WRs would've served you well.

 

[Kenny Powers]

DMC, FJax, Calvin, Nicks, Jennings is a far cry from Ingram, Jstew, Calvin, Nicks, Santonio IMO.

Do you recall how low DMC and FJax were rated last year? In a lot of drafts they weren't even the first backs taken from their respective teams....If you prefer the security blanket of having a stud RB that's a totally viable option. If you have confidence in your potential ability to select several undervalued backs in the middle rounds and hope they emerge as starters, I just happen to think it's a better option. I happen to think that between Ingram/Thomas, Addai, Ryan Williams, and JStew, I get two starting quality fantasy backs. That combined with elite production at WR and QB could be a recipe for success.To reiterate glong's point, I think that kenny powers got pretty unlucky. There have been very few receivers in NFL history that suffered the drop off Randy Moss had, and Miles Austin's production took a dive when Romo got injured. How did the other top 10 receivers in terms of ADP do?Andre Johnson finished 8th in fantasy points.Reggie Wayne finished 9th.Larry Fitzgerald finished 15th.Calvin Johnson finished 5th.Roddy White finished 3rd.Brandon Marshall finished 29th.Greg Jennings finished 4th.Desean Jackson finished 11th.Pretty much any other combination of top 10 WRs would've served you well.

While I would agree I had terrible luck with my Top 2 WR choices, Austin was still serviceable and I was getting plenty of production from Nicks and Mike Williams. Not getting top end production from my RBs was what killed that team, and your team would appear to be in a similar situation where your only breakout candidate IMO is Ingram or Stewart alongside a D-Will major injury. Just like Foster last year for me, you stumbled upon gold with DMC. You cant come out of a draft counting on a guy to outperform his projections by such a gigantic margin.Either way, I would not trade out of the 5 spot this year.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

While I would agree I had terrible luck with my Top 2 WR choices, Austin was still serviceable and I was getting plenty of production from Nicks and Mike Williams. Not getting top end production from my RBs was what killed that team, and your team would appear to be in a similar situation where your only breakout candidate IMO is Ingram or Stewart alongside a D-Will major injury. Just like Foster last year for me, you stumbled upon gold with DMC. You cant come out of a draft counting on a guy to outperform his projections by such a gigantic margin.Either way, I would not trade out of the 5 spot this year.

Out of curiosity, who was your quarterback on that team? You could make the argument that if Austin and Randy Moss had provided better production you would've been able to trade Nicks and Williams for quality RBs. I just think your team is the exception rather than the rule, since your first 2 picks panned out so badly.

 

[Kenny Powers]

While I would agree I had terrible luck with my Top 2 WR choices, Austin was still serviceable and I was getting plenty of production from Nicks and Mike Williams. Not getting top end production from my RBs was what killed that team, and your team would appear to be in a similar situation where your only breakout candidate IMO is Ingram or Stewart alongside a D-Will major injury. Just like Foster last year for me, you stumbled upon gold with DMC. You cant come out of a draft counting on a guy to outperform his projections by such a gigantic margin.Either way, I would not trade out of the 5 spot this year.

Out of curiosity, who was your quarterback on that team? You could make the argument that if Austin and Randy Moss had provided better production you would've been able to trade Nicks and Williams for quality RBs. I just think your team is the exception rather than the rule, since your first 2 picks panned out so badly.

Eli.I would also admit RB options at 11 are better this year (ie Gore, Turner, etc), but theyre much more risky than your options at 5.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

If you do, you should get additional picks later in the draft. Have you considered just floating out there that the 5 is available and seeing what offers come in, as they will most likely be from the lower teams in the draft. Plus that way you don't get diminished value because they know that you actually like/value the pick they have.

 

[brainee]

Back to the OP's question ... I agree that the #5 spot looks to be a great draw this year. I have the #3 in a draft coming up, and mocks have me wishing I had #5. The guy I favor (with CJ's holdout, it's Rice) is usually there at 5. Regardless, Rice ... Charles ... CJ ... you're getting a stud at RB. As mentioned, the rest of the drafts seems to play out nicely so you can construct your team in a number of ways. High tiered players at WR, RB, and QB will be there for the next 2 picks.

Regardless, it's your team. If you just like drafting at the turns (and like how your team will turn out with the players available there), go for it. I'd suggest doing mocks at #5 and #10/11, to give yourself a feel for how such teams might develop. If you look back and generally like your #5 mocks more, then your decision will be made.

 

[cloudofdust]

Hey guys, thanks for all the thoughtful replies. Lot of good info in this thread. I ended up keeping the 5th pick and drafted a team I'm generally happy with. Interestingly I didn't use draft dominator during the draft, but I just input all the teams into draft dominator now, and it looks like I picked the best overall team, starting line-up wise, by literally .1 point (meaningless I know, but still better than the other way around.)

In case anyone's wondering, I took McCoy with the 5th pick. It's a partial .5 PPR league with QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/rb-wr-te-FLEX/DST/K. We're actually still completing the last four rounds of the draft (we ran late at the live-draft) but here's who I ended up with through 12 rounds. Clearly I'm weak at RB and I have substantial week 7 issues to address, but again, draft dominator seems to like what I've done... as do I. Also, I know I took AJ Green too early, but I knew he was going two picks later if I didn't take him. Still probably should have used the pick on an RB (especially given that he's a week 7 bye), but, nobody's draft is perfect I guess:

3.05 P. Rivers

10.08 K. Kolb

1.05 L. McCoy

6.08 C. Benson

12.08 T. Jones

2.08 R. White

4.08 D. Bryant

5.05 W. Welker

7.05 AJ Green

9.05 R. Gronkowski

11.05 T. Gonzalez

8.08 Pittsburgh

I'd like to use two of my last draft slots on Ridley and Vereen until the smoke clears between the two, but I don't think I can do that given my existing week 7 issues.

EDIT: PS, Kenny, that's funny - I also took Moss and Austin as my top two picks in my 12 team PPR league last year (with the 11th overall pick.) I also took Pierre Thomas as my fourth pick (McCoy was my third) yet amazingly crushed my league in overall points by the end -- in part thanks to my week two pick-up of Vick. But Moss and PT... ugh.