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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

A sucker is born every minute.  Chinese reports contradicting Trump's claims were available on Sunday morning, but CNBC and the rest of Trump's cheerleaders took 2 days to notice 

 
A sucker is born every minute.  Chinese reports contradicting Trump's claims were available on Sunday morning, but CNBC and the rest of Trump's cheerleaders took 2 days to notice 
after NK, I don't see how anyone can take any of his assertions in private meetings as anything but what randomly rolls out of Trump's mouth or he tweets at the time

 
Inverted yield curve and the market realized en masse that the person claiming trade victories is simply telling lies.

Gonna be a great week.

 
Don't worry, Trump will make another phony claim tomorrow morning, the Dow will have a dead cat bounce, and this thread will once again be filled with cheerleaders posing as analysts.
I bet you $500 the Dow doesn't bounce tomorrow
I will bet you 500 CSTUbucks that the Dow gains ~300 points in the mid-morning tomorrow, followed by volatility, followed by an ultimate gain of ~50 points, followed by several Trump supporters posting in this thread, "See? The Dow is recovering already. Nothing to worry about."

 
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I will be you 500 CSTUbucks that the Dow gains ~300 points in the mid-morning tomorrow, followed by volatility, followed by an ultimate gain of ~50 points, followed by several Trump supporters posting in this thread, "See? The Dow is recovering already. Nothing to worry about."
bet!

 
after NK, I don't see how anyone can take any of his assertions in private meetings as anything but what randomly rolls out of Trump's mouth or he tweets at the time
"I tell you what, Putin looked me in the eye and said they didn't attempt to interfere in our election, so... what can I do?"

 
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All this winning is just nauseating, TBH. I wasn't ever a Trump supporter but sure am glad my 401(k) is like a rocket over NK!

 
So....winning?
There's weather on one hand and climate on the other...  Today's weather is pretty bad, but overall the climate will hang in there for another 10 months. A point after which we will see at least 10 months of ####ty climate until the idiot in chief realizes he lost the tariff battle and implements policies to correct the climate. 

 
Trump after dinner : we're done, we've come to a historic agreement with China...they're dropping tariffs on car imports.  The tariffs worked!  #MAGA

Trump staffers : huh?  ya, we're looking into that

Trump :  let the negotiations begin!  

:wall:
I've noticed his staunchest allies on this forum have been gradually disappearing.  It's easier to con these people than to get them to admit they were conned.

 
The yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart on Monday.
which is....ungood. 

The yield curve has been flirting with inversion for some time now. Most know it's a strong recessionary signal (usually a few quarters leading a recession) . Right now other indicators are still positive but it is spooking people. I'll be interested if the Fed changes guidance later this month. 

 
which is....ungood. 

The yield curve has been flirting with inversion for some time now. Most know it's a strong recessionary signal (usually a few quarters leading a recession) . Right now other indicators are still positive but it is spooking people. I'll be interested if the Fed changes guidance later this month. 
Check out what’s happening with the 2 and the 10. 

2.799

2.912

 
I will bet you 500 CSTUbucks that the Dow gains ~300 points in the mid-morning tomorrow, followed by volatility, followed by an ultimate gain of ~50 points, followed by several Trump supporters posting in this thread, "See? The Dow is recovering already. Nothing to worry about."
I bet you it won’t 

markets closed today.  Haha....way late to the party

 
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I don't keep up with tweets (not on Twitter at all), so no idea what DJT is roiling the markets with.  But this article (headline at Bloomberg) seems to indicate that the US and China are moving forward with some items.  It has a bit of promise.  The two items that struck me as announced from China ministries:

Beijing will start to quickly implement specific items where there’s consensus with the U.S. and will push forward on trade negotiations within the 90-day "timetable and road map," the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Wednesday morning in China.

Hours later, Bloomberg News reported that officials have begun preparing to restart imports of U.S. soybeans and liquefied natural gas -- the first sign confirming the claims of Trump and the White House that China had agreed to start buying some U.S. products "immediately." Trump retweeted an edited excerpt of that article Wednesday.

In China, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said that country hopes to speed up talks and is devoted to finding a solution to settle issues.


I should probably keep up with this stuff more as it seems to be what has been moving the markets (besides the Fed, but that's a known quantity).  I'd be happy if we could get them to quit all the IP theft and open up a few markets.  The rest will take care of itself.

 
So the correction that proved Trump's success has now corrected itself? I'm sure daguru will be in here explaining how it's really nothing to do with tariffs asap
Show me where I said anything about tariffs.   I ask questions about them as I stated I am no expert on the topic. I just searched my name and tariffs and there is a total of 3 comments and 2 are asking questions about them. Also show me where I say anything about Trump and market correction as I don`t discuss Trump as he sickens me and I have Trump fatigue. The only time I even think about Trump is when I come to the PSF here.

 
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Yeah, but isn't that kind of why Trump was elected? Previous leaders showed respect to the cultural norms of other countries, and Trump supporters saw that as "weakness". Trump comes along and promises to make us strong and make us winners again.

"Insulting the Chinese" is just the international version of "owning the libs". 

 
he clearly doesn't understand how tariffs actually work....THEY don't pay, AMERICAN'S PAY....so you're taking in billions of AMERICAN'S $...the guy is just clueless.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account 

....I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN

7:03 AM - 4 Dec 2018
Lord, I was born a Tariff Man
Tryin' to make a livin' and doin' the best I can
And when it's time for leavin'
I hope you'll understand
That I was born a Tariff Man

 
As an aside, what method would you propose to stop the Chinese from the rampant IP theft occurring?
As a separate issue?

I wish I knew enough but IMO the TPP was at the forefront of IP negotiations. China was not  a part of that but other countries were. Basically hemming China in in an economic rubric which they would have desperately wanted to join or compete with would have been the best solution. I have no idea how to do that now outside of the WTO, but Trump has total disregard for the WTO as well. There's no way to do it outside an international framework that almost everyone agrees to play by. We only started dragging them into our orbit 20 or so years ago, they're still the wild west. But don't forget that was our doing, we wanted their markets.

 
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As a separate issue?

I wish I knew enough but IMO the TPP was at the forefront of IP negotiations. China was not  a part of that but other countries were. Basically hemming China in in an economic rubric which they would have desperately wanted to join or compete with would have been the best solution. I have no idea how to do that now outside of the WTO, but Trump has total disregard for the WTO as well. There's no way to do it outside an international framework that almost everyone agrees to play by. We only started dragging them into our orbit 20 or so years ago, they're still the wild west. But don't forget that was our doing, we wanted their markets.
Dropping out of the TPP was monumentally stupid.  The politics on it were reallly weird though.  Both parties were fairly split.  You don’t often see that.

 
As an aside, what method would you propose to stop the Chinese from the rampant IP theft occurring?
Don't do business there. Don't open factories or employ Chinese engineers. If you do that, you're effectively allowing the IP to proliferate without compensation.  For consumer goods where brand is powerful, this doesn't matter much if Chinese firms copy your IP. It matters if western companies with competing brands steal your IP, but then again you can sue them for patent infringement.

For pure software tech companies, this is more important, but they don't have factories in China anyway.  Apple is unique as they make a lot of money of their hardware, and most is made in China. But they aren't griping the most about the IP theft I think.

 
They're starting with a zero baseline, which is an egregious error.  They need to start at a baseline that includes the wealth we're already losing due to IP theft, currency manipulation, and their closed market policies.
How much of the IP "theft", as you call it, is a result of contractual obligations of US companies to provide access to the IP in exchange for manufacturing goods in China?

Versus, actual IP theft?
bump

 
Probably a decent bit, but for all of those there are items like this and whole regiments in their armed forces that do nothing but try and hack our companies to steal secrets.  It's open, blatant, and is draining our collective wallets in a big way.

I am pretty sure I posed this question to you a few days ago - but it was ignored.
Working 55-60 a week keeps me from doing important things like this.

For pure software tech companies, this is more important, but they don't have factories in China anyway.  Apple is unique as they make a lot of money of their hardware, and most is made in China. But they aren't griping the most about the IP theft I think.
As someone in the aerospace area I get security briefings (open stuff, just aggregated to give a look at the forest) that are terrifying as to what they are doing and the scope of their efforts.  

 
I wonder how much Trump and his friends are making on the stock market swings over the past 2 years? Seems like someone could make a fortune if they knew how to time Trumps patterns.

 

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