Trading 2 1st Round Picks - a study (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

I hear talk that the Bears gave too much. I don't agree - but I had to look to be sure. So I took the 2005 & 2006 drafts and evaluated the two picks from each team - and I used those years as that's 4 and 3 seasons ago and good picks should be somewhat prductive by now. I had to drop several teams from the list as they didn't have 1 pick in each year - and if somebody had more than 1 in a draft, I only used the first. Yes there are other things to consider - Orton and the other picks - but I think most o f the concern is in regards to the 2 1sts.

So here are the results (team-2005 pick number-pick-2006 pick number-pick)

Team 2005 2006

San Francisco 49ers 1 Alex Smith 6 Vernon Davis

Miami Dolphins 2 Ronnie Brown 16 Jason Allen

Cleveland Browns 3 Braylon Edwards 13 Kamerion Wimbley

TB Buccaneers 5 Carnell Williams 23 Davin Joseph

Tennessee Titans 6 Adam Jones 3 Vince Young

Minnesota Vikings 7 Troy Williamson 17 Chad Greenway

Arizona Cardinals 8 Antrel Rolle 10 Matt Leinart

Detroit Lions 10 Mike Williams 9 Ernie Sims

Dallas Cowboys 11 DeMarcus Ware 18 Bobby Carpenter

San Diego Chargers 12 Shawne Merriman 19 Antonio Cromartie

New Orleans Saints 13 Jammal Brown 2 Reggie Bush

Carolina Panthers 14 Thomas Davis 27 DeAngelo Williams

Kansas City Chiefs 15 Derrick Johnson 20 Tamba Hali

Houston Texans 16 Travis Johnson 1 Mario Williams

Cincinnati Bengals 17 David Pollack 24 Johnathan Joseph

St. Louis Rams 19 Alex Barron 15 Tye Hill

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 Matt Jones 28 Marcedes Lewis

Baltimore Ravens 22 Mark Clayton 12 Haloti Ngata

Oakland Raiders 23 Fabian Washington 7 Michael Huff

Green Bay Packers 24 Aaron Rodgers 5 A. J. Hawk

Seattle Seahawks 26 Chris Spencer 31 Kelly Jennings

Indianapolis Colts 29 Marlin Jackson 30 Joseph Addai

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Heath Miller 25 Santonio Holmes

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Mike Patterson 14 Brodrick Bunkley

New England Patriots 32 Logan Mankins 21 Laurence Maroney

That's 25 pairs of 1st round picks - and I don't see a single pair I wouldn't trade for Cutler.

Does anybody see one?

 

[MDSkinner]

There are a couple of good ones in there (Rodgers/Hawk, Holmes/Miller). But I am 100% confident that the Bears would not have done better with their two first round picks than Cutler.

 

[Spike]

And Orton.

And a 3rd.

 

[massraider]

And Orton.

And a 3rd.

You wanna throw in some 3rd round names, and see how much it changes?Great work, Dude. I think Merriman/Cromartie could make a nice argument. Derrick Johnson/Tamba Hali?

I think two things: This time of year, draft picks are overrated. Everyone expects these 1st/2nd/3rd rounders to all pan out, and half of them will flop dramtically.

Second: Denver got as much as can be expected. If I was Denver, I'd rather have a happy Cutler than the picks, but since that wasn't possible, they did great to get that package.

 

[Despyzer]

San Diego Chargers 12 Shawne Merriman 19 Antonio CromartieThat's 25 pairs of 1st round picks - and I don't see a single pair I wouldn't trade for Cutler.Does anybody see one?

I doubt very much that the Chargers would consider giving up these two Pro-Bowlers for Cutler, especially if they also had to throw in their starting QB (or even one of their backups) and another pick.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Does anybody see one?

They've all been mentioned, but no way do I trade the Packers, Chargers, or Steelers picks for Jay Cutler. Also, I wonder if 05/06 were typical years as far as class talent goes.

 

[HellToupee]

And Orton.

And a 3rd.

Orton is a red herring. If by some wild chance Stafford fell all the way to the Bears in the 1st and they drafted him I'd say he'd probably start nullifying that 1st round pick & Orton. In essence to secure that pick they traded a 1 & 3.

 

[Day Drinker]

I don't think it is a fair example when you leave the 2005 third round out. There are a lot of impact players taken in the third, and some elite players certainly come out of the third. When you add these guys to the list, it makes it a little tougher to say Chicago clearly got the better deal.

Frank Gore RB San Francisco 49ers

O.J. Atogwe DB St. Louis Rams

Charlie Frye QB Cleveland Browns

Courtney Roby WR Tennessee Titans

Andrew Walter QB Oakland Raiders

Channing Crowder OLBMiami Dolphins

Alex Smith TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stanley Wilson DB Detroit Lions

Vernand Morency RB Houston Texans

Justin Tuck DE New York Giants

Eric Green DB Arizona Cardinals

Karl Paymah DB Denver Broncos

Ryan Moats RB Philadelphia Eagles

Kirk Morrison LB Oakland Raiders

Evan Mathis G Carolina Panthers

Dustin Fox DB Minnesota Vikings

Richie Incognito C St. Louis Rams

Alfred Fincher LB New Orleans Saints

Chris Henry WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ellis Hobbs CB New England Patriots

David Greene QB Seattle Seahawks

Kevin Everett TE Buffalo Bills

Scott Starks DB Jacksonville Jaguars

Sione Pouha DT New York Jets

Atiyyah Ellison DT Carolina Panthers

Jordan Beck LB Atlanta Falcons

Chris Colmer T Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vincent Burns DE Indianapolis Colts

Trai Essex T Pittsburgh Steelers

Adam Snyder T San Francisco 49ers

Darryl Blackstock LB Arizona Cardinals

Brandon Jones WR Tennessee Titans

Domonique Foxworth CB Denver Broncos

Leroy Hill OLB Seattle Seahawks

Dustin Colquitt P Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Kaczur T New England Patriots

Maurice Clarett --Denver Broncos

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Give me a few minutes. I'll add the 05 3rd rounders to each list to see if this makes any more teams jump out.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

And Orton.

And a 3rd.

You wanna throw in some 3rd round names, and see how much it changes?Great work, Dude. I think Merriman/Cromartie could make a nice argument. Derrick Johnson/Tamba Hali?

I think two things: This time of year, draft picks are overrated. Everyone expects these 1st/2nd/3rd rounders to all pan out, and half of them will flop dramtically.

Second: Denver got as much as can be expected. If I was Denver, I'd rather have a happy Cutler than the picks, but since that wasn't possible, they did great to get that package.

also, nice work dude.

 

[The Dude]

The talent level of those drafts likely won't play much into the discussion. That's 3 out of 25 possibles - so maybe in a stronger year that number doubles - so say 6 in 25. That's still only roughly a 25% chance that it doesn't work out. That number would have to get to about 50% where you can even begin to question if it was too much.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

San Francisco 49ers 1 Alex Smith 6 Vernon Davis 65 Frank GoreMiami Dolphins 2 Ronnie Brown 16 Jason Allen 70 Channing CrowderCleveland Browns 3 Braylon Edwards 13 Kamerion Wimbley 67 Charlie FryeTB Buccaneers 5 Carnell Williams 23 Davin Joseph 71 Alex Smith (TE)Tennessee Titans 6 Adam Jones 3 Vince Young 68 Courtney RobyMinnesota Vikings 7 Troy Williamson 17 Chad Greenway 80 Dustin FoxArizona Cardinals 8 Antrel Rolle 10 Matt Leinart 75 Eric GreenDetroit Lions 10 Mike Williams 9 Ernie Sims 72 Stanley WilsonDallas Cowboys 11 DeMarcus Ware 18 Bobby Carpenter (traded 3rd rounder)San Diego Chargers 12 Shawne Merriman 19 Antonio Cromartie (traded 3rd rounder)New Orleans Saints 13 Jammal Brown 2 Reggie Bush 82 Alfred FincherCarolina Panthers 14 Thomas Davis 27 DeAngelo Williams 79 Evan MathisKansas City Chiefs 15 Derrick Johnson 20 Tamba Hali 99 Dustin ColquittHouston Texans 16 Travis Johnson 1 Mario Williams 73 Vernand MorencyCincinnati Bengals 17 David Pollack 24 Johnathan Joseph 83 Chris HenrySt. Louis Rams 19 Alex Barron 15 Tye Hill 66 Oshiomogho AtogweJacksonville Jaguars 21 Matt Jones 28 Marcedes Lewis 87 Scott StarksBaltimore Ravens 22 Mark Clayton 12 Haloti Ngata (traded 3rd rounder)Oakland Raiders 23 Fabian Washington 7 Michael Huff 69 Andrew WalterGreen Bay Packers 24 Aaron Rodgers 5 A. J. Hawk (traded 3rd rounder)Seattle Seahawks 26 Chris Spencer 31 Kelly Jennings 85 David GreeneIndianapolis Colts 29 Marlin Jackson 30 Joseph Addai 92 Vincent BurnsPittsburgh Steelers 30 Heath Miller 25 Santonio Holmes 93 Trai EssexPhiladelphia Eagles 31 Mike Patterson 14 Brodrick Bunkley 77 Ryan MoatsNew England Patriots 32 Logan Mankins 21 Laurence Maroney 84 Ellis Hobbs

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

The talent level of those drafts likely won't play much into the discussion. That's 3 out of 25 possibles - so maybe in a stronger year that number doubles - so say 6 in 25. That's still only roughly a 25% chance that it doesn't work out. That number would have to get to about 50% where you can even begin to question if it was too much.

possible. But I'd also argue that there are some players taken from the 06 draft that will still develop who haven't yet, and it's premature to write them off.

 

[ScottyFargo]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

 

[The Dude]

The talent level of those drafts likely won't play much into the discussion. That's 3 out of 25 possibles - so maybe in a stronger year that number doubles - so say 6 in 25. That's still only roughly a 25% chance that it doesn't work out. That number would have to get to about 50% where you can even begin to question if it was too much.

possible. But I'd also argue that there are some players taken from the 06 draft that will still develop who haven't yet, and it's premature to write them off.

Agreed - but my counter would be that if I need 4 or more years for the pick to develop that it diminishes in value compared to having Cutler now.

 

[The Dude]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

Agreed but we have to have some "value" to work with to state whether or not he was worth the picks - granted it can all be done retrospectively but where's the fun in that?

 

[Despyzer]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense?

Memories of Herschel?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

They've all been mentioned, but no way do I trade the Packers, Chargers, or Steelers picks for Jay Cutler.

I can buy San Diego and Green Bay, but you'd rather have Holmes/Miller than Cutler? Really?So that leaves us 2 out of 25, or an 8% chance that they'd do better than Cutler with those picks, AND they'd have to wait for those guys to develop. Given the Bears history of 1st rounders I wouldn't exactly bank on them making it into that 8%. Even if we add the 3rd rounders it still only adds a couple more teams that did better than Cutler in this study, and still puts it at a longshot as far as finding those guys goes.

 

[ScottyFargo]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense?

Memories of Herschel?

Also, sour grapes.

 

[ImTheScientist]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense?

Memories of Herschel?

 

[Pictus Cat]

Nice thoughts.

I think it would be more accurate to conjecture what would have happened without the trade.

We will know what will happen with the trade soon enough.

Of course, if Denver can draft perfectly the best player available with those picks...like the next Brady, Colston...

There so many factors.

And it doesn't really matter. It could go either way. And it will.

Jay Cutler could be the best QB for the Bears ever.

or

tossed on a pile of 1st round Bear huge under performers.

He's got good parents and the Bear's organization provided a background for Orton to mature.

It's up to Cutler how special he wants to be to this city, with luck, history.

 

[FUBAR]

Change it to 2004/2005 and you get KW/Braylon, Fitz/Rolle, RiversEli/Merriman, Ben/Miller, Taylor/Campbell Wilfork/Mankins, and probably some other good combos.

 

[ScottyFargo]

Change it to 2004/2005 and you get KW/Braylon, Fitz/Rolle, RiversEli/Merriman, Ben/Miller, Taylor/Campbell Wilfork/Mankins, and probably some other good combos.

Interesting. Also, some have mentioned that the Bears have been lousy with their 1st round picks lately...I don't take it as a positive that the Bears organization tended to do poorly with the 1st round picks anyway so losing the picks doesn't hurt. ...they still have to draft the guys in the other rounds too around the talent they already have, and their WR corp and o-line are little more than touch and go right now.

 

[scratcher]

Granted Philly already has McNabb but I would not trade our solid DT duo for Cutler either. Patterson and Bunkley are a big reason for the success of that D, IMO. QB is only one piece of the puzzle as Cutler proved in his stint at KC.

 

[thecardiackid]

Interesting way to look @ it - thx OP.

Wouldn't we need to essentially remove most of the first half of that list in this case though? Since we're talking about #18 pick in 09, and (although impossible to predict correctly) next year's pick likely in the 20-30 range.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Looking at it the wrong way entirely. The picks received by the Broncos, added to the picks they already have increase there odds of finding beneficial players. There odds just more than doubled. And I really find it rather ridiculous that the initial study didn't include the 3rd and a proven NFL quality QB. Orton hasn't made a huge name for himself... we can ponder or debate his value ... or we can just agree that he at the very least has what it takes to be an NFL QB at some level.

I'm not trying to say the Bears paid to much. I actually think the Bears got good value on the face. (we wait to see how Cutler fairs without Shanny, Denver's OL, and quality WR's) But this study is flawed in many ways.

 

[Snotbubbles]

It's not really a fair assessment to do. Maybe only one of the 1st round picks pans out, maybe both. But there are more then enough players throughout the first rounds in past drafts that I wouldn't trade Cutler straight up for. What if one of those picks turns out to be one that the Bears traded? And what happens if Cutler flames out? I mean he doesn't exactly have a large body of work.

 

[Donnybrook]

I don't think it is a fair example when you leave the 2005 third round out. There are a lot of impact players taken in the third, and some elite players certainly come out of the third. When you add these guys to the list, it makes it a little tougher to say Chicago clearly got the better deal.

Frank Gore RB San Francisco 49ers

O.J. Atogwe DB St. Louis Rams

Charlie Frye QB Cleveland Browns

Courtney Roby WR Tennessee Titans

Andrew Walter QB Oakland Raiders

Channing Crowder OLBMiami Dolphins

Alex Smith TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stanley Wilson DB Detroit Lions

Vernand Morency RB Houston Texans

Justin Tuck DE New York Giants

Eric Green DB Arizona Cardinals

Karl Paymah DB Denver Broncos

Ryan Moats RB Philadelphia Eagles

Kirk Morrison LB Oakland Raiders

Evan Mathis G Carolina Panthers

Dustin Fox DB Minnesota Vikings

Richie Incognito C St. Louis Rams

Alfred Fincher LB New Orleans Saints

Chris Henry WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ellis Hobbs CB New England Patriots

David Greene QB Seattle Seahawks

Kevin Everett TE Buffalo Bills

Scott Starks DB Jacksonville Jaguars

Sione Pouha DT New York Jets

Atiyyah Ellison DT Carolina Panthers

Jordan Beck LB Atlanta Falcons

Chris Colmer T Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vincent Burns DE Indianapolis Colts

Trai Essex T Pittsburgh Steelers

Adam Snyder T San Francisco 49ers

Darryl Blackstock LB Arizona Cardinals

Brandon Jones WR Tennessee Titans

Domonique Foxworth CB Denver Broncos

Leroy Hill OLB Seattle Seahawks

Dustin Colquitt P Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Kaczur T New England Patriots

Maurice Clarett --Denver Broncos

You accidentally highlighted Foxworth and missed Kirk Morrison, Leroy Hill and Ellis Hobbs

 

[Sweet Love]

Change it to 2004/2005 and you get KW/Braylon, Fitz/Rolle, RiversEli/Merriman, Ben/Miller, Taylor/Campbell Wilfork/Mankins, and probably some other good combos.

I agree with your thoughts and in some cases this is true, but you have a team that resurrected itself (then imploded) in Cleveland, the Chargers, Redskins and the Pats...besides Washington, you have two perrenial contenders and one that who knows why they underachieved when things were turning the corner (and not to be morbid, but who knows what Wash could have done with Taylor there). The reality is the Bears have just not been good at selecting talent recently and Angelo probably looked at himself and thought "am I really going to turn two guys into Pro-Bowlers when I know I can get one in the hand"? It is funny because to get where these GMs are, it takes a lot of confidence and often that is what kills these guys, but it is nice to see someone basically doubt they can "will a winning lottery ticket" and go with the safe choice.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Interesting way to look @ it - thx OP.

Wouldn't we need to essentially remove most of the first half of that list in this case though? Since we're talking about #18 pick in 09, and (although impossible to predict correctly) next year's pick likely in the 20-30 range.

I have seen this in several posts, and honestly have to question where this is coming from? The Bears defense seems to be getting worse by the year not better. They still have a makeshift offensive line and no WRs. Yet they are a lock for the playoffs because of Cutler? The same guy who had a 3 game lead on his division with 4 to play and didn't make it? Even looking at the bigger picture, most NFL teams fall into the middle type category. Chances are they won't be great or terrible. The Bears most likely fit that in 2009. Injuries and luck will determine whether they are closer to 5-11 or 11-5.

I'd say there is just as likely of a chance the pick is top 12 as it is bottom 12.

 

[Bri]

the Bears haven't had a franchise QB in such a long time

Look at all the great franchise QBs and how their presence positively effected the teams. I'm not sure if Cutler's great but I do think he's better than any Bears QB I can ever recall seeing play for them. 20-30 years?

I'd give what they gave for a player better than any I've had for 20-30 years if I could.

 

[Adebisi]

They've all been mentioned, but no way do I trade the Packers, Chargers, or Steelers picks for Jay Cutler.

I can buy San Diego and Green Bay, but you'd rather have Holmes/Miller than Cutler? Really?

Yeah, I LOL'd at that one too, but I was pretty much expecting at least one Steeler fan to throw them in there with San Diego and Green Bay.

 

[thecardiackid]

Interesting way to look @ it - thx OP.

Wouldn't we need to essentially remove most of the first half of that list in this case though? Since we're talking about #18 pick in 09, and (although impossible to predict correctly) next year's pick likely in the 20-30 range.

I have seen this in several posts, and honestly have to question where this is coming from? The Bears defense seems to be getting worse by the year not better. They still have a makeshift offensive line and no WRs. Yet they are a lock for the playoffs because of Cutler? The same guy who had a 3 game lead on his division with 4 to play and didn't make it? Even looking at the bigger picture, most NFL teams fall into the middle type category. Chances are they won't be great or terrible. The Bears most likely fit that in 2009. Injuries and luck will determine whether they are closer to 5-11 or 11-5.

I'd say there is just as likely of a chance the pick is top 12 as it is bottom 12.

Fair enough. I don't know enough about the state of the CHI D to make any assumptions there. I guess my reply to that would be that if I was a "middle type" team, I'd like my chances w/ a stud QB over one w/ someone like Orton, Edwards, Garrard, Campbell, Russel, etc.I'm not suggesting CHI w/ Cutler is a lock for the playoffs in 09, but is it that unreasonable to think adding Cutler and Pace along w/ a solid RB in Forte might not hurt the cause and maybe help them win a couple more games? I do agree that the NFCN isn't the easiest division in the NFL (aside from DET) w/ MN and GB having good teams. But they have their share of ?s as well.

Motivation is a funny thing. And I'd think, right or wrong, that the whole team will respond positively in some way to the new found optimism. Whether or not that will translate into wins and a possible playoff berth is yet to be seen. So, you might be right. Just like about 60% of the NFL teams these days could be 11-5 or 5-11. I would take the over on wins if the line was 8-8 for the Bears though. Where they ultimately end up draft pick wise is why we prognosticate by hanging out on FF forums in March and play this game.

As for the last 4 games in DEN here's what the defense gave up (points wise) that was (IMO) the reason the broncos missed the playoffs.

W 24-17 vs. KC - nothing to see here, aside from a (unusually) decent day from the D

L 30-10 @ CAR - on the road and the Panthers were on fire @ the end of the season

L 30-23 vs. BUF - tough loss for the division - no excuses for Cutler, but the D couldn't get off the field

L 52-21 @ SD - two teams going in different directions @ that point

 

[Vibe Raiders]

Good Post. People can and will spin this any way they want to. Being a life long Bears fan, I didn't think I would live to see the day that they would actually make the move to get what they need, a potential franchise QB! I have no issue with what they gave up to get Cutler. He has all the tools to get them to the next level and do it now, while they still have their Defense in tact, not 3 or 4 years from now when those future picks mature and may or may not pan out.

I think the WR in Denver are better than Chicago but I don't think they are anything that special or that proven they are young and Marshall is a headcase that will probably end up impolding. Royal had a good year but I don't believe he is spectacular by no means. Chicago needs to upgrade one but they will be more than servicable and have the defense to go with it. I think what they need now more than an upgrade at WR is and upgrade in the DB's....

anway My hats off to the Bears for making the move I thought I would never see...and I guess Hell just froze over!

 

[Marvelous]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

I think you definately have to consider this. I think players traded for 2 first round picks rarely meet their expections and that is where I thought this thread was originally heading. Off the top of my head are:Joey Galloway (Dallas from Seattle)Keyshawn Johnson (Miami from Jets)Sean Gilbert (Carolina from Washington)Let me know if you can think of others.

 

[Soaring Eagle]

ricky williams may have been as well

 

[The Dude]

Interesting way to look @ it - thx OP.Wouldn't we need to essentially remove most of the first half of that list in this case though? Since we're talking about #18 pick in 09, and (although impossible to predict correctly) next year's pick likely in the 20-30 range.

I was going to mention this myself - when looking at any of the combos (04/05 or 05/06) you would have to assume one of the picks was taken at 18 or later. You wouldn't know the status of the second pick - but I beleive it would also be 18 or later - which really changes the outcome.

 

[The Dude]

And people will try to look at this retrospectively down the road - but the truth is we will never be able to do so. We will never knbow who the Bears would have taken with thier picks. On top of that include the possibility of the Bears trading down in the first and there is no way of ever knowing who they would have taken.

 

[The Dude]

Last - as much as he's not a character guy - the Bears should bring in Plax with a contract stringent around behavior.

 

[Sinrman]

Why exactly did we take the 2005/2006 seasons and compare them?

 

[bcr8f]

Green Bay

1992 5-TBuck

19-traded for Brett Favre.

 

[Marvelous]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

I think you definately have to consider this. I think players traded for 2 first round picks rarely meet their expections and that is where I thought this thread was originally heading. Off the top of my head are:Joey Galloway (Dallas from Seattle)Keyshawn Johnson (Miami from Jets)Sean Gilbert (Carolina from Washington)Let me know if you can think of others.

Some draft day trades also come to mind, all involving San Diego:Ryan LeafEli ManningMichael Vick wasn't two first round picks, but almost (1st (5th overall) and 3rd that year, 2nd the following year, and Tim Dwight)

 

[Sinrman]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

I think you definately have to consider this. I think players traded for 2 first round picks rarely meet their expections and that is where I thought this thread was originally heading. Off the top of my head are:Joey Galloway (Dallas from Seattle)Keyshawn Johnson (Miami from Jets)Sean Gilbert (Carolina from Washington)Let me know if you can think of others.

Some draft day trades also come to mind, all involving San Diego:Ryan LeafEli ManningMichael Vick wasn't two first round picks, but almost (1st (5th overall) and 3rd that year, 2nd the following year, and Tim Dwight)

Which, to this day, still rings as one of the best trades ever in my opinion. Granted it's easy for us to look BACK (hindsight is always 20/20), but still...Just to move up 4 spots, Atlanta gave all that up to get Vick. At the time he was considered one of the most impressive QBs to ever enter the draft. And despite his issues (off and on the field), he was definitely impressive to watch (on TV and in real life). But SD made out quite well. They moved back to the 1.05 pick and grabbed LT. Plus the other picks, which helped loosen things up for them and really started to set the stage for their success a few years later.

 

[-baller]

As for the last 4 games in DEN here's what the defense gave up (points wise) that was (IMO) the reason the broncos missed the playoffs.

W 24-17 vs. KC - nothing to see here, aside from a (unusually) decent day from the D

L 30-10 @ CAR - on the road and the Panthers were on fire @ the end of the season

L 30-23 vs. BUF - tough loss for the division - no excuses for Cutler, but the D couldn't get off the field

L 52-21 @ SD - two teams going in different directions @ that point

week 15 - yeah, I don't really think this win caused them to miss the playoffs, but I'll check it out anyway.1st quarter:

3-4-DEN 25 (6:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 14-B.Stokley INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Leggett at DEN 27. 31-M.Leggett for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

week 16 -

Denver Broncos at 01:55

1-10-DEN 16 (1:55) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Gamble at DEN 31. 20-C.Gamble to DEN 27 for 4 yards (19-E.Royal).

Carolina Panthers at 01:44

1-10-DEN 27 (1:44) 28-J.Stewart right end to DEN 25 for 2 yards (34-J.Bell).

2-8-DEN 25 (1:04) 34-D.Williams left end to DEN 21 for 4 yards (79-M.Thomas). Direct Snap

3-4-DEN 21 20) 17-J.Delhomme pass incomplete short middle to 34-D.Williams (93-N.Clemons).

4-4-DEN 21 15) 4-J.Kasay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-7-J.Baker.

DEN 10 CAR 10 Plays: 4 Possession: 1:34

1-10-DEN 18 34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 89-D.Graham to DEN 18 for no gain (58-T.Davis).

Timeout #2 by DEN at 00:17.

2-10-DEN 18 17) (Shotgun) 35-S.Young left end to DEN 25 for 7 yards (30-C.Godfrey). FUMBLES (30-C.Godfrey), RECOVERED by CAR-96-T.Brayton at DEN 25. 96-T.Brayton to DEN 25 for no gain (74-R.Harris).

Carolina Panthers at 00:07

1-10-DEN 25 07) 17-J.Delhomme kneels to DEN 27 for -2 yards.

2-12-DEN 27 04) 4-J.Kasay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-7-J.Baker.

DEN 10 CAR 20 Plays: 2 Possession: 0:07

denver continues on to go 3 and out on three different drives in the second half, missing a field goal, and ending the game here:

2-3-CAR 18 30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CAR 18 for 0 yards (96-T.Brayton).

END GAME

how this loss falls solely on the defense, I have no idea -- plz explain.

the broncos scored 10 points.

week 16 -

2nd quarter :

1-10-BUF 27 (3:54) 21-T.Bell left end to BUF 24 for 3 yards (27-R.Corner). PENALTY on DEN-62-C.Wiegmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27 - No Play.

1-20-BUF 37 (3:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler left end pushed ob at BUF 43 for -6 yards (43-B.Scott).

2-26-BUF 43 (2:44) PENALTY on DEN-6-J.Cutler, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43 - No Play.

2-31-BUF 48 (2:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short left to 35-S.Young.

3-31-BUF 48 (2:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 36 for 12 yards (27-R.Corner, 59-K.Mitchell).

Two-Minute Warning

4-19-BUF 36 (2:00) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short,

buffalo gets the ball back at their own 44 yard line and drives down for a td with only 15 seconds left in the half.

3rd quarter:

1-10-DEN 29 (9:46) 35-S.Young up the middle to DEN 29 for no gain (59-K.Mitchell).

2-10-DEN 29 (9:15) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 15-B.Marshall (90-C.Kelsay).

Timeout #1 by DEN at 09:09.

3-10-DEN 29 (9:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 47 for 24 yards (20-D.Whitner). FUMBLES (20-D.Whitner), RECOVERED by BUF-27-R.Corner at BUF 44. 27-R.Corner to BUF 42 for -2 yards (21-T.Bell).

buffalo once again gets the ball back w/great field position, but is held to only a field goal this time.

4th quarter: denver down by 7

1-10-BUF 15 (5:51) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 21-T.Bell.

2-10-BUF 15 (5:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 15-B.Marshall.

3-10-BUF 15 (5:42) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 59-K.Mitchell at BUF 1. 59-K.Mitchell to BUF 2 for 1 yard (15-B.Marshall).

needing a td, this is denver's last drive of the game:

1-10-BUF 20 (1:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley (27-R.Corner).

2-10-BUF 20 (1:07) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 89-D.Graham to BUF 15 for 5 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

3-5-BUF 15 44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley.

4-5-BUF 15 39) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley (27-R.Corner).

week 17 - LOLZ

not much point in doing this one, but fwiw........

2nd quarter:

2-10-SD 14 (1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 27-P.Oliver at SD -5. Touchback.

3rd quarter:

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann).

San Diego Chargers at 09:48

1-10-DEN 14 (9:48) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

to sum up, I have no idea why these particular games cost them the playoffs as opposed to any losses earlier inthe season, but of your 4 game sample, the denver defense had one good game, giving up only 10 points in the sole win of the 4, one horrible game, and 2 games where they were at worst equal partners in the loss.

cutty looked like a hof qb in zero of the 4.

enough cutler ball washing.

 

[trader jake]

Great thread. We can see how the OP was flawed but it does make us look at the on the field impact to many of these "can't miss" 1st round picks. Two things not mentioned yet:

1) There are also financial implications to a trade like this. I know Cutler has three years left on his contract but let's be real...he'll sign a big money extension by this time next year. For a QB that's committing $30 mil + and $100 million total to one player. If you have questions about that guy off the field, or in the locker room, that's a huge risk a franchise is taking. Those three draft picks are much, much cheaper and allow the Broncos to fill needs on the free agent market in other areas while also adding a good locker room guy in Orton.

2) Expectations are now in effect. The Bears are viewed as a playoff team, and possible Super Bowl contender, while most think the Broncos would be fortunate to go 8-8. If the Bears struggle or the Broncos overachieve the view of this trade will be quickly twisted and be cited as a reason why the 2009 season played out the way it did. Moves like this shape perceptions of GM's like Angelo and head coached like McDaniels. Considering both of them are not viewed that highly at this time (one with a long track record, the other with almost none) one of them will probably come out looking great.

In the end I think it's a no-brainer deal for the Bears. Their track record with 1st round picks isn't the best and they needed to add an offensive weapon (ie, QB!) if they hope to see another Super Bowl Shuffle in the near future. Considering the situation the Broncos were in they did well to get out of their bad marriage with Cutler. Of course we know that it's highly unlikely to be viewed as a win-win transaction down the line and I'll side with the QB on this one.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Among all first round QBs drafted since the merger (over 70), Cutler is easily one of the five most impressive QBs through three seasons. There's Marino, then a big drop, then Peyton, then a big drop, and then Culpepper and Cutler. Guys like Ben, O'Brien, Leftwich, Everett, Palmer, Vick vying for that #5 spot.

The idea that Cutler is not a franchise QB is crazy, IMO. He's started his career better than every single QB in the HOF besides Marino. And trading the 18th pick and next year's first and this year's third is a small price to pay for the next 10-12 years of that.

 

[DrJ]

Among all first round QBs drafted since the merger (over 70), Cutler is easily one of the five most impressive QBs through three seasons. There's Marino, then a big drop, then Peyton, then a big drop, and then Culpepper and Cutler. Guys like Ben, O'Brien, Leftwich, Everett, Palmer, Vick vying for that #5 spot.The idea that Cutler is not a franchise QB is crazy, IMO. He's started his career better than every single QB in the HOF besides Marino. And trading the 18th pick and next year's first and this year's third is a small price to pay for the next 10-12 years of that.

 

[thecardiackid]

As for the last 4 games in DEN here's what the defense gave up (points wise) that was (IMO) the reason the broncos missed the playoffs.

W 24-17 vs. KC - nothing to see here, aside from a (unusually) decent day from the D

L 30-10 @ CAR - on the road and the Panthers were on fire @ the end of the season

L 30-23 vs. BUF - tough loss for the division - no excuses for Cutler, but the D couldn't get off the field

L 52-21 @ SD - two teams going in different directions @ that point

week 15 - yeah, I don't really think this win caused them to miss the playoffs, but I'll check it out anyway.1st quarter:

3-4-DEN 25 (6:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 14-B.Stokley INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Leggett at DEN 27. 31-M.Leggett for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

week 16 -

Denver Broncos at 01:55

1-10-DEN 16 (1:55) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Gamble at DEN 31. 20-C.Gamble to DEN 27 for 4 yards (19-E.Royal).

Carolina Panthers at 01:44

1-10-DEN 27 (1:44) 28-J.Stewart right end to DEN 25 for 2 yards (34-J.Bell).

2-8-DEN 25 (1:04) 34-D.Williams left end to DEN 21 for 4 yards (79-M.Thomas). Direct Snap

3-4-DEN 21 20) 17-J.Delhomme pass incomplete short middle to 34-D.Williams (93-N.Clemons).

4-4-DEN 21 15) 4-J.Kasay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-7-J.Baker.

DEN 10 CAR 10 Plays: 4 Possession: 1:34

1-10-DEN 18 34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 89-D.Graham to DEN 18 for no gain (58-T.Davis).

Timeout #2 by DEN at 00:17.

2-10-DEN 18 17) (Shotgun) 35-S.Young left end to DEN 25 for 7 yards (30-C.Godfrey). FUMBLES (30-C.Godfrey), RECOVERED by CAR-96-T.Brayton at DEN 25. 96-T.Brayton to DEN 25 for no gain (74-R.Harris).

Carolina Panthers at 00:07

1-10-DEN 25 07) 17-J.Delhomme kneels to DEN 27 for -2 yards.

2-12-DEN 27 04) 4-J.Kasay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-7-J.Baker.

DEN 10 CAR 20 Plays: 2 Possession: 0:07

denver continues on to go 3 and out on three different drives in the second half, missing a field goal, and ending the game here:

2-3-CAR 18 30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CAR 18 for 0 yards (96-T.Brayton).

END GAME

how this loss falls solely on the defense, I have no idea -- plz explain.

the broncos scored 10 points.

week 16 -

2nd quarter :

1-10-BUF 27 (3:54) 21-T.Bell left end to BUF 24 for 3 yards (27-R.Corner). PENALTY on DEN-62-C.Wiegmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27 - No Play.

1-20-BUF 37 (3:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler left end pushed ob at BUF 43 for -6 yards (43-B.Scott).

2-26-BUF 43 (2:44) PENALTY on DEN-6-J.Cutler, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43 - No Play.

2-31-BUF 48 (2:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short left to 35-S.Young.

3-31-BUF 48 (2:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 36 for 12 yards (27-R.Corner, 59-K.Mitchell).

Two-Minute Warning

4-19-BUF 36 (2:00) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short,

buffalo gets the ball back at their own 44 yard line and drives down for a td with only 15 seconds left in the half.

3rd quarter:

1-10-DEN 29 (9:46) 35-S.Young up the middle to DEN 29 for no gain (59-K.Mitchell).

2-10-DEN 29 (9:15) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 15-B.Marshall (90-C.Kelsay).

Timeout #1 by DEN at 09:09.

3-10-DEN 29 (9:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 47 for 24 yards (20-D.Whitner). FUMBLES (20-D.Whitner), RECOVERED by BUF-27-R.Corner at BUF 44. 27-R.Corner to BUF 42 for -2 yards (21-T.Bell).

buffalo once again gets the ball back w/great field position, but is held to only a field goal this time.

4th quarter: denver down by 7

1-10-BUF 15 (5:51) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 21-T.Bell.

2-10-BUF 15 (5:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 15-B.Marshall.

3-10-BUF 15 (5:42) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 59-K.Mitchell at BUF 1. 59-K.Mitchell to BUF 2 for 1 yard (15-B.Marshall).

needing a td, this is denver's last drive of the game:

1-10-BUF 20 (1:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley (27-R.Corner).

2-10-BUF 20 (1:07) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 89-D.Graham to BUF 15 for 5 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

3-5-BUF 15 44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley.

4-5-BUF 15 39) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley (27-R.Corner).

week 17 - LOLZ

not much point in doing this one, but fwiw........

2nd quarter:

2-10-SD 14 (1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 27-P.Oliver at SD -5. Touchback.

3rd quarter:

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann).

San Diego Chargers at 09:48

1-10-DEN 14 (9:48) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

to sum up, I have no idea why these particular games cost them the playoffs as opposed to any losses earlier inthe season, but of your 4 game sample, the denver defense had one good game, giving up only 10 points in the sole win of the 4, one horrible game, and 2 games where they were at worst equal partners in the loss.

cutty looked like a hof qb in zero of the 4.

enough cutler ball washing.

OK, he threw some picks trying to force the ball in games where he HAD to. I'm not sure why or how O line holding, and fumbles by Marshall & Selvin killing drives is helping your arguement - if there is one.By the end of the year, the starting RB was Tater friggin Bell. And he had recently retired from a lucrative new career in cell phone sales to become the Broncos RB - after the setllar franchise in DET decided he wasn't good enough to play there. Do you think that maybe opposing DC's could just drop into a nickel or dime package for most of the 60 minutes and play the odds? Vs. actually respecting the stellar DEN run game.

And before you cite the YPC and other decent run game stats, I think it's clear that for the better part of the season, DEN was running occasionally to try to keep the defense honest. Not focusing there - due to significant injuries and the fact that they were typically down by 10 or more.

In the last 4 games the D gave up 17 (not 10), 30, 30, and a fiddy burger. The one game that was respectable (i.e. 17 - Denver surprisingly won). And I don't think many teams in the ENTIRE NFL would have gone into CAR towards the end of last season and won. That team was killing it.

And b.t.w. - the 4th & 5 incompletion to Stokley (BUF game) was in his hands.

I'm not saying Cutler is Peyton Manning. He has a lot of growing up to do, and he might flame out ala George/Leaf in the end. But he does have the talent (god given if you will) to get there - if he so chooses and the surrounding talent contributes. Only about 10 (hell maybe even less) of the starting QBs in the NFL could be included in that conversation.

 

[The Dude]

Alright added 04 to 05 to see if anything stands out. Let me know your thoughts.

San Diego Chargers 1 Eli Manning 12 Shawne Merriman

Oakland Raiders 2 Robert Gallery 23 Fabian Washington

Arizona Cardinals 3 Larry Fitzgerald 8 Antrel Rolle

Cleveland Browns 6 Kellen Winslow II 3 Braylon Edwards

Detroit Lions 7 Roy Williams 10 Mike Williams

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 Reggie Williams 21 Matt Jones

Houston Texans 10 Dunta Robinson 16 Travis Johnson

Pittsburgh Steelers 11 Ben Roethlisberger 30 Heath Miller

TB Buccaneers 15 Michael Clayton 5 Carnell Williams

Philadelphia Eagles 16 Shawn Andrews 31 Mike Patterson

New Orleans Saints 18 Will Smith 13 Jammal Brown

Miami Dolphins 19 Vernon Carey 2 Ronnie Brown

Minnesota Vikings 20 Kenechi Udeze 7 Troy Williamson

New England Patriots 21 Vince Wilfork 32 Logan Mankins

Seattle Seahawks 23 Marcus Tubbs 26 Chris Spencer

St. Louis Rams 24 Steven Jackson 19 Alex Barron

Green Bay Packers 25 Ahmad Carroll 24 Aaron Rodgers

Cincinnati Bengals 26 Chris Perry 17 David Pollack

Houston Texans 27 Jason Babin 16 Travis Johnson

Carolina Panthers 28 Chris Gamble 14 Thomas Davis

San Francisco 49ers 31 Rashaun Woods 1 Alex Smith

New England Patriots 32 Benjamin Watson 32 Logan Mankins

Yes, I continued to ignore the third rounder - that round is more random and I think the Bears can acquire a third rounder easy enough if they want to do so.

 

[-baller]

OK, he threw some picks trying to force the ball in games where he HAD to. I'm not sure why or how O line holding, and fumbles by Marshall & Selvin killing drives is helping your arguement - if there is one.In the last 4 games the D gave up 17 (not 10), 30, 30, and a fiddy burger. The one game that was respectable (i.e. 17 - Denver surprisingly won).

if you didn't get it the first time through, I'm not sure I can make it any simpler for you.if you only skimmed it, go back and read it.