In my league guys severly over rate the first and second rounds of the draft and prior to our draft i am always trading out of the first or second round compliling picks in the 3-5 round. This year after some wheeling and dealing I am left without a first round pick but instead have 3 picks in the 4th and 5th round. The extra picks i have gotten cost me my 1st,14,15,17 rounders. I was approached today with a deal that would take my second rounder #17 overall and an 11th round pick for two picks in the third round (#31, and #33 overall). If i accepted this deal i would not make my first pick until 30 players are off the board but in return i would have 3 picks in the 3rd,4th,and 5th round. Our league is standard scoring no PPR start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB,WR), K, and Def. The pick value calculator is screaming for me to make the deal but I am not sure that adequate value would be there when i made my first pick at #31.
Rest easy. There's as much value at #31 as there is in the 2nd round. The reason 2nd rounders are considered more valuable is because people think their projections are right, so they want the guys who are high in them. Trust me- your projections are wrong. So are your leaguemates.Historically, the success rate of top-3 draft picks is good, but after that it's all HORRIBLE, so you might as well trade down and load up on extra darts to throw at the board.
If it helps any,
here's last year's ADP.
Here were rounds 3-5 last year. I've bolded everyone who finished the season in the top 36 in season-ending VBD (theoretically, every team should have 3 top-36 players):
25. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/10
26. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/5
27. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/6
28. WR Javon Walker, GB/6
29. WR Joe Horn, NO/10
30. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/3
31. TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/5
32. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/8
33. WR Hines Ward, Pit/4
34. RB Carnell Williams, TB/7
35. TE Antonio Gates, SD/10
36. WR Darrell Jackson, Sea/8
37. WR Nate Burleson, Min/5
38. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/6
39. QB Marc Bulger, StL/9
40. WR Roy Williams, Det/3
41. WR Steve Smith, Car/7
42. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/7
43. WR Michael Clayton, TB/7
44. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/8
45. QB Trent Green, KC/5
46. RB Tatum Bell, Den/9
47. RB Chris Brown, Ten/10
48. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4
49. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/7
50. WR Anquan Boldin, Ari/6
51. WR Drew Bennett, Ten/10
52. RB Michael Bennett, Min/5
53. TE Jason Witten, Dal/9
54. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/5
55. QB Michael Vick, Atl/8
56. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/8
57. QB Brett Favre, GB/6
58. WR Jerry Porter, Oak/5
59. WR Donald Driver, GB/6
60. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6
Chad Johnson finished 11th in season-ending VBD. LaMont Jordan finished 13th. Antonio Gates finished 8th. Steve Smith finished 6th. Lots of other guys finished solidly, or had a lot of value but got injured (Bulger, Caddy, etc). Also, there were more great picks even later on (Carson Palmer, Mike Anderson, Thomas Jones), and this list also doesn't include Larry Johnson, who was drafted on average as the 8th pick of the 6th round and wound up being #2 in season-ending VBD.
The problem with loading up with 3rd-5th picks is that most of the value tends to be at WR. You might wind up with a glut of great WRs. If the rest of your league isn't big on trading, this can be a problem, although not a huge one. If the rest of your league doesn't mind trading, then this can be a huge asset, because you can trade from your position of strength to shore up your weaknesses.
