pecorino said:
Good post. I disagree with your claim that taking small profits is a complete waste of time, especially in the example I gave: replacing limit orders to buy stocks with selling puts instead. It is not a "huge gain" kind of move but it has very limited downside (vs. buying via a limit order) so it's almost like giving up a free vig of 5%, say.
Anyway, I've been enamored with the leverage that one can get with buying calls instead of buying stock outright, and I agree it completely hinges on risk vs. reward. I'm confused, however, but your line "One needs to be agnostic towards the stock however..." -- what do you mean by that? For example, I really liked BABA as a stock I wanted to own for 2019 as I think the tariffs will be worked out. Buying 100 shares would have cost me $14000 earlier this month so instead I bought two 155 calls with January 2020 expiration and the total cost was under $3500. That's just incredible, spending about a quarter the price yet getting access to the equivalent to double the number of shares. But I'm not agnostic about BABA as I know a lot about it and bought the calls specifically because I like the underlying. Thanks for the thoughts.
Ok. There is a lot in here so let me take it one at a time:
To me there is a lot of unknown risk out there across every asset class. Probably a lot more than we realize. Unrecognized risk is our present looming Black Swan. The article about the optionsellers.com blowing up his clients portfolio is a perfect example. Options can and should (imo) be used to better understand and manage risk. And to best do that I would much prefer to use them in positions where I have 100% known risk and unlimited upside...even if that means my odds of "winning" are reduced. The optionsellers.com guy might have won 99% of the time for 10 years for all I know..but he put on a position of "unlimited" risk and all it took was 1 time to more than blow up his clients accounts.
So rule #1: Ideally - Use options to limit risk AND to maximize gains.
Next: Success with options requires some ability for consistent scanning/selection criteria to take an educated guess that $XYZ will move in some direction (up, down or flat); that XYZ will move towards a certain price point (up, down or flat); and that XYZ will move in that direction towards that price point by a certain date in the future. That educated guess lays the foundation of what strategy to employ.
So rule #2: Use a thought-thru "pilots checklist" to scan and select potential candidates in order to improve odds of a successful options strategy and trade.
I understand the concept of writing puts as a means to enter into a position. But imo it's a waste of time. Here's an example. I've scanned a universe of stocks today and have determined that $GLD is a new buy candidate and I would like to take an entry position of 100 shares here at $122. From my pilots checklist my best guess is that over the next month $GLD will trade from between $120-$125. So I see a level of support is at $120. If I were to place a limit order $120 MIGHT be a logical spot. So instead, what I do is write the Feb 120 Put for $.40 and collect my $40. That's a lunch at Applebees! And for my best case scenario $GLD trades at $119.75ish on Feb exp and I get put those 100 shares at a cost basis of $119.60. THAT's MY BEST CASE SCENARIO. Remember I want to own the position...and my best case is that I bettered the position by $2.40 ($240) having my limit order filled vs. buying today at $122 (less than 2%) or by $.15 ($15) vs having the Puts put to me at $120. What did I risk? Well what if $GLD isn't below $120 on options ex? What if it runs straight up? What if it flys past $125 and by Feb Ex it's trading at $130? What if all I get from my trade is a double gut punch from my Applebees lunch and missing out on a nice $8 run...and now am chasing the position up...I've FOMO'd myself and increased the odds that my next move will compound the initial mistake.
Now I get it...collect $40 here and $30 there...and soon it all adds up to a dinner at Ruth's Chris. But to me if you've done your homework the options can better work by owning unlimited upside potential. And every once in a while the pay off of unlimited upside potential can be positively portfolio altering.
Agnosticism towards any individual position. It's best not to fall in love with any company or stock. They are a tool used to make money. I'm not picking here just using your example as THE example ($BABA is a good stock with a lot of future potential imo and you have decent odds of winning). But the question to ask yourself is: Why do you like $BABA? What was your selection criteria for picking it? As you've scanned the universe of stocks is it sticking out as the best candidate right now? Where do you think it will run to? When do you think it will get there? Is it possible your opinion is slanted by confirmation bias? Do the same rules you hold for $BABA hold true for ALL stocks? If the opposite were true would you be buy $155 Puts? And after all of that is the position you now hold- Long $155 Calls Jan 2020 - the single best risk vs. reward? And how did you calculate risk vs. reward?
I do a scan each month looking for potential high gain "alpha" stocks. It's a selection process of which I have no idea what the potential "universe" of stocks for the month will be comprised of and it's an elimination process from there. Sometimes the universe might be 100 stocks...some months it might be less than 5. I'm agnostic and deliberate in the selection and elimination process - of course it's always nice if a well known stock comes up in the initial scan. But quite often I've never heard of the stock. I'm agnostic towards any stock selected...my research and history shows profitability in the strategy based solely upon the selection & elimination process.
Options provide almost limitless strategies. But what works in one situation doesn't necessarily work in all. In addition you and I could take on the same options strategy but have different levels of risk - depending on our unique situation. Options strategies in and of themselves are relatively simple...what's difficult is in developing the plan in how your determine which strategy to use depending of the situation. In my perfect world I'd rather use them to have a known small risk for a potential unknown and large reward. Not the other way around (known small reward and potential unknown and large risk)- ask the clients at optionsellers.com for their opinion for further clarification.