Travdogg's top-150 (8-21 update) (3 Viewers)

[VikingFrog]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

I assume this jumps Kraft over Kincaid in your rankings. I’m staring at both as late TE targets and this may be my tiebreaker.

Or maybe I pair them both with late picks and see what shakes out. News on Kincaid hasn’t been great. But may just be a smokescreen.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

I assume this jumps Kraft over Kincaid in your rankings. I’m staring at both as late TE targets and this may be my tiebreaker.

Or maybe I pair them both with late picks and see what shakes out. News on Kincaid hasn’t been great. But may just be a smokescreen.

Dalton Kincaid News: Unlikely to be full-time player | RotoWire

Kincaid isn't expected to see an expanded role in 2025 compared to what he handled last season, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.

www.rotowire.com

that one? I may do Kraft instead of Kincaid

 

[wgoldsph]

You wouldn't happen to be a KC fan would you?

 

[Payne]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

I think Dak could be top 5 or 7 easily.

 

[travdogg]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

I assume this jumps Kraft over Kincaid in your rankings. I’m staring at both as late TE targets and this may be my tiebreaker.

Or maybe I pair them both with late picks and see what shakes out. News on Kincaid hasn’t been great. But may just be a smokescreen.

I have Kraft over Kincaid, but I'm not opposed to taking Kincaid as well. Agree news hasn't been great, but its a long season and things could certainly change.

 

[travdogg]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

I think Dak could be top 5 or 7 easily.

If he is, then I'm probably still underrating Pickens. I hesitate to put him up with Burrow or Mahomes, as I think he has greatly durability risk than either, but he's certainly in my top-12, and probably top-10.

 

[travdogg]

You wouldn't happen to be a KC fan would you?

I'm a Bears fan, though not really a serious one, I guess. If the Bears go 0-17 it wouldn't upset me. Could probably argue I'm probably team agnostic and just enjoy football. I was rooting for the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year. I probably care more about my analysis being right, then any individual team winning.

I am a little afraid of KC this year. I felt they were coasting in the regular season last season, almost with that, "we'll turn it on in the playoffs, so just do enough to win" mentality, and now with the embarrassment in the Super Bowl, I think they reassess that.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

Sutton was 2023 Mike Evans, in 2024. Most of the value is gone at this point. He's Payton's #1, and he's the guy Nix looks for first, and everyone knows it. Franklin from the Broncos is the value pick everyone seems to be overlooking probably because he was just a 4th rounder with a slow start. He has 1st round talent and may have fixed the mental stuff. Egbuka's price is absurd at this point. Complete avoid for me at this point. Evans, Otton, Godwin at some point. OC gone. I'm not feeling the TB offense, and certainly not its ability to support so many Bucs being drafted this high. Egbuka is now being drafted ahead of other teams' #1s. Agree with you 100% on the Thielen trade and its impact in Minnesota. Didn't feel great about McMillan until Coker went down, but now McMillan and Sanders have to be considered. McMillan should get tons of balls. Legette just isn't that dude.

 

[wgoldsph]

You wouldn't happen to be a KC fan would you?

I'm a Bears fan, though not really a serious one, I guess. If the Bears go 0-17 it wouldn't upset me. Could probably argue I'm probably team agnostic and just enjoy football. I was rooting for the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year. I probably care more about my analysis being right, then any individual team winning.

I am a little afraid of KC this year. I felt they were coasting in the regular season last season, almost with that, "we'll turn it on in the playoffs, so just do enough to win" mentality, and now with the embarrassment in the Super Bowl, I think they reassess that.

Does Worthy being in his second year open the pass game though? Rice is good, but will be missing for the first six games. I don't see them being as low scoring as last year because of the"eff you" factor, but nothing has really changed on that offense to make me think there's another gear there. Especially with Kelce a year older.

 

[travdogg]

@travdogg any final update before the season!? Lots of drafts this week, would love to see your final preseason ranks if you are planning on it

Not a full update, but do have 10 names where I've found myself feeling a little different about:

1. I have Lamar Jackson as #1 QB now. He won't have 41 passing TDs again, but he's taken tangible steps forward as a passer under Monken, and the Ravens have so much depth as pass catcher. Likely/Kolar is as good a #2 and #3 at TE, Hopkins as a #3 WR, even a guy like Hill out of the backfield. I just kinda find myself pushing him ahead of Allen, if though I think Allen is the best player in the NFL, and will have 6+ more rush scores. I'm also a little lower on the chances of one of Allen's weapons really breaking out, compared to perhaps one of the Ravens guys.

2. For different reasons, I keep finding myself getting higher every week on Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, which is interesting because they seem to go around the same spot. I have way more Brown shares than I would think, even though I wasn't really impressed by his talent. and the Bengals will NEVER be a run 1st team. But he sees such a high % of volume in such a good offense that his floor is as high as anyone outside the top-5. Irving meanwhile, I think could absolutely be the centerpiece of a very good offense, in a horrific division. I keep finding myself thinking he could absolutely be this season's Gibbs if things break right.

3. Tyjae Spears going on IR makes me think Tony Pollard is pretty solidified as a solid RB2, that makes it to round 5/6 pretty consistently. He may be the centerpiece of that offense, and with a much better OL, and presumably QB, he and to a lesser extent Ridley are likely undervalued.

4. Can't help but think the Parsons trade is a boon for the Dallas passing game. I already had Lamb WR1, so not so much there, but I'm thinking Pickens might be a bit of a Great Value Higgins, and Dak (if he stays healthy) could be a Great Value Burrow. Dak could be a low-end QB1, and Pickens a solid WR2.

5. Keep finding myself liking the KC passing game more and more. Mahomes feels like a tier 1 bounce back could happen. I'm still ranking him 6th, but I have toyed with making tier 1 6 QBs deep. Wanna see it first, but I'm expecting it. Travis Kelce has moved up a lot for me, and Xavier Worthy has too. I think this pass game can absolutely have a top-5 TE and 2 top-25 WRs once Rice is back, with top-3 and top-12 upside while Rice is gone.

6. I think the Thielen deal had 2 major effects to me. It makes me want to call McMillan a top-20 WR, and it makes me want to downgrade both Addison and Hockenson, because I think Thielen is good enough still to not go away. Addison is a fade to me overall, and Hockenson has fallen more to like TE7 or so from TE4. Now I don't think Thielen himself has real value, but he makes the overall offense better, if harder to trust multiple guys in fantasy. Great news for McCarthy too, though I can't really move him up much higher.

7. Tee Higgins is a guy that I find myself having drafted a lot. I sometimes wonder if he's punished too much for not being his team's #1 WR. This guy was a clear top-5 WR on a PPG basis in all scoring systems, and I don't know if that is a fluke. I think its more likely Chase comes down than Higgins does (a lot more room to, to be fair) and I think Higgins took a lot of Tyler Boyd's work, so I think the idea of "well, he had outlier TD%, and target/reception per game totals" and I think those are sticky, and that its a different role for him, not outlier performance. Add in the contingent upside if Chase were to go down, and I think Higgins is a guy I think is underrated. I think its not hard to make a good case for him over guys like Drake London, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, as long as he stays healthy.

8. Is Courtland Sutton this season's Mike Evans, as far as a veteran who just isn't treated like the player he is? He has 18 TDs in 2 seasons since Sean Payton got there and may have kind of become the new Marques Colston. If Nix takes another step forward, could low-end WR1 numbers could be on the table? I've been expecting the Broncos to be more run heavy given the way RB was prioritized this offseason, but he's a guy I'm kinda worried I'm too low on.

9. Perhaps I was slow to come around to it, but I'm getting a ton higher on Egbuka. I think he belongs in the same conversation as Hunter/McMillan. I think Godwin's timeline is still questionable, and I think his job won't be waiting for him when he gets back. Tampa's offense is very interesting if it starts to streamline, which is likely, around 3 guys (Irving, Evans, Egbuka) could result in a lesser version of the Eagles offense, especially when Wirfs is back, only without the QB running for a TD every week.

10. Is there any reason Tucker Kraft isn't the #1 pass catcher in Green Bay? Why is he necessarily worse than say, Sam LaPorta? Kraft might be the best TE in the NFL for RAC, and LaFleur schemes him open very well. What if that just happens more? I also wonder if Kraft could take a bigger role with Reed's injury (that I think he, and the medical staff are idiots for trying to play through) and a healthy Love. I think he could absolutely be a top-5 TE if things break right.

Sutton was 2023 Mike Evans, in 2024. Most of the value is gone at this point. He's Payton's #1, and he's the guy Nix looks for first, and everyone knows it. Franklin from the Broncos is the value pick everyone seems to be overlooking probably because he was just a 4th rounder with a slow start. He has 1st round talent and may have fixed the mental stuff. Egbuka's price is absurd at this point. Complete avoid for me at this point. Evans, Otton, Godwin at some point. OC gone. I'm not feeling the TB offense, and certainly not its ability to support so many Bucs being drafted this high. Egbuka is now being drafted ahead of other teams' #1s. Agree with you 100% on the Thielen trade and its impact in Minnesota. Didn't feel great about McMillan until Coker went down, but now McMillan and Sanders have to be considered. McMillan should get tons of balls. Legette just isn't that dude.

Sutton is going at the 4/5 turn, about a round and a half later than Evans. From the Carolina game forward (when Nix really got going) Sutton had 60-804-6, which would extrapolate to 102-1367-10. If that happens or comes close, there is still value at his current ADP. I do like Franklin and thought it was wild he fell to day 3 last year, but he seems like the #3 right now. Solid dynasty prospect though.

On the Bucs, is Cade Otton really a concern? I feel like he's JAG unless everyone else is hurt. I mean, he put up 59-600-4, but 30-293-3 came in the 4 games without both Evans/Godwin. He put up 29-317-1 in 11 games otherwise. He also led the position in drops. Why does the offense have to support more than Irving/Evans/Egbuka, with maybe Godwin at some point?

Egbuka is going ahead of a few #1s but its GB, Jeudy, IND, Olave, Meyers, Diggs, BUF. Is that really egregious? All of those WRs have pretty big question marks, and other than Buffalo worse QBs.

 

[travdogg]

You wouldn't happen to be a KC fan would you?

I'm a Bears fan, though not really a serious one, I guess. If the Bears go 0-17 it wouldn't upset me. Could probably argue I'm probably team agnostic and just enjoy football. I was rooting for the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year. I probably care more about my analysis being right, then any individual team winning.

I am a little afraid of KC this year. I felt they were coasting in the regular season last season, almost with that, "we'll turn it on in the playoffs, so just do enough to win" mentality, and now with the embarrassment in the Super Bowl, I think they reassess that.

Does Worthy being in his second year open the pass game though? Rice is good, but will be missing for the first six games. I don't see them being as low scoring as last year because of the"eff you" factor, but nothing has really changed on that offense to make me think there's another gear there. Especially with Kelce a year older.

I think Kelce is in much better shape than last year. By his own admission he was out of shape last year, playing at 260, instead of his usual 250, he says he's 245 right now. I think his days of being a record setter are gone, but something like Atlanta Tony Gonzalez feels doable to me.

I didn't really like Worthy as a prospect coming out. I thought he had no business going as high as he did. But he really impressed me down the stretch, and to a lesser extent I realized a few of my issues with him as a prospect may have been influenced by how much I didn't like Quinn Ewers. Once he got going last year, he put up nice numbers, and that was with a lot of near misses deep, that could go his way this year, as they seemed like communication issues. His last 10 games, he was on pace for 99-1154-10, with Mahomes playing arguably career worst football.

I will say, I like Rice a lot, but I don't think he'll be as clear-cut of the #1 as he was a year ago. I think he'll be at the top of pecking order, but not the stranglehold he was the 1st 3 games, where he was on a 136-1632-11 pace. Those are like 2023 CeeDee Lamb numbers.

 

[IHEARTFF]

You wouldn't happen to be a KC fan would you?

I'm a Bears fan, though not really a serious one, I guess. If the Bears go 0-17 it wouldn't upset me. Could probably argue I'm probably team agnostic and just enjoy football. I was rooting for the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year. I probably care more about my analysis being right, then any individual team winning.

I am a little afraid of KC this year. I felt they were coasting in the regular season last season, almost with that, "we'll turn it on in the playoffs, so just do enough to win" mentality, and now with the embarrassment in the Super Bowl, I think they reassess that.

Does Worthy being in his second year open the pass game though? Rice is good, but will be missing for the first six games. I don't see them being as low scoring as last year because of the"eff you" factor, but nothing has really changed on that offense to make me think there's another gear there. Especially with Kelce a year older.

I think Kelce is in much better shape than last year. By his own admission he was out of shape last year, playing at 260, instead of his usual 250, he says he's 245 right now. I think his days of being a record setter are gone, but something like Atlanta Tony Gonzalez feels doable to me.

I didn't really like Worthy as a prospect coming out. I thought he had no business going as high as he did. But he really impressed me down the stretch, and to a lesser extent I realized a few of my issues with him as a prospect may have been influenced by how much I didn't like Quinn Ewers. Once he got going last year, he put up nice numbers, and that was with a lot of near misses deep, that could go his way this year, as they seemed like communication issues. His last 10 games, he was on pace for 99-1154-10, with Mahomes playing arguably career worst football.

I will say, I like Rice a lot, but I don't think he'll be as clear-cut of the #1 as he was a year ago. I think he'll be at the top of pecking order, but not the stranglehold he was the 1st 3 games, where he was on a 136-1632-11 pace. Those are like 2023 CeeDee Lamb numbers.

Also, last year Rice missed 13 games, Brown missed 15 games, Pacheco missed 10 games. Rice, Worthy, Brown, Pacheco, & Kelce have yet to all play in a game together. Should be fun once Rice is back and probably before that too.

 

[zoonation]

I will eat my hat if Sutton finishes as low end WR3 this year barring injury.

 

[Gatorade]

I think Kraft will stay about the same. If anything, I think GB will run more 2 TE sets and a healthy Musgrave will benefit greatly .

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Kraft will stay about the same. If anything, I think GB will run more 2 TE sets and a healthy Musgrave will benefit greatly .

What is this healthy Musgrave you speak of? Does such a thing exist?