Trends in RB Career, Finding Value (1 Viewer)

[Birdnals]

I've done a little numerical analysis to try and find some general trends in the careers of running backs. I understand finding numerical trends can be misleading given the insane amount of variable that go into performance. I'll also admit that my sample size isn't exactly humongous. Still, I'm interested to see if some trends might prevail that can help us when facing some tough decisions on draft day. I'm going to try and stick to numbers as much as possible and keep the analysis to a minimum. I'll let you make the conclusions.

For this analysis, I pooled together every running back that played between 1994 and 2013. These results were filtered to include players who met the following criteria: at least one season of 150+ points (startable player), played a minimum of 5 seasons (excludes flash in pan players, and yeah, I know these guys are important to winning a season but they're often not on people's draft boards), and players who's entire career was played between 1994 and 2013 (I wanted to analyze a players entire career). A random number generator was used to select 40 of these players for analysis.

Here's some general finds:

• The average experience of a player's career year was 4.35 (18% of players in year 4, 21% of players in year 5
• The second best year of player's career, on average, was in the year immediately preceding their career year. This year's performance was still only 70% of their career best.
• 16% of them had their career year in their rookie year
• Players generally experienced a (temporary) modest career best early on in their career, followed by a down year, and then a two year surge to their career best

Possible Areas of Value

While a player's career year is generally preceded by another increase in performance, this is not generally the case. For instance, if a player experienced an increase in performance, they only improved on it the following year 37% of the time. In other words, players only had a two year increase in performance 37% of the time. Only 24% increased their performance three years in a row.

So where is a better spot to look for value? Damaged goods, particularly within players in their first six years in the league. Overall, 51% of the players bounced back from a decrease in performance with an increase. Within the first six years of their career, this number was 56%. Players who had a down year in their fourth season bounced back 63% of the time. The average increase: 121%!

As I said, this study has some faults, in particular with a sample size of only 40. Still though, I think we can get some general ideas about the career trends of an RB that will helps us on draft day. Thanks for making it this far and best of luck to everyone this season!

 

[Ilov80s]

Thanks for the work. I am going to analyze this more later, but 2 guys that popped into my head from this write-up:

Joique Bell: Entering 5th year, 4th year was a 40% increase from his baseline (I am not counting his first 2 years in the league as he didn't play...maybe that is a mistake and last year was his peak). Plus he seems to have the opportunity to get a lot of work as Bush is entering his 9th.

Ridley: Entering year 4 after a year 3 that saw a a 60% loss in production. His situation (barring the fumbles) is basically the same as 2 years ago and could result in a lot of GL work.

 

[Birdnals]

Thanks for the work. I am going to analyze this more later, but 2 guys that popped into my...

Re: Bell. Definite possibility. But just so you know, the numbers I ran were not adjusted one way or the other for scenarios like the one you mention (excluding first two years).Think some other people to check out for career years might be R. Matthews, Vereen, Gerhart, R. Jennings, and D. Murray. I haven't looked into the numbers as you have though but I plan to do so later. I just noticed they all are entering 4th, 5th, or 6th years and I think they all (except Murray and Gerhart maybe) saw some increased numbers last year. I think they're all in a position to succeed now, too.

If I can figure it out, I'll put up thr graphs and tables for you to check out as well. Cheers.

 

[Ilov80s]

Thanks for the work. I am going to analyze this more later, but 2 guys that popped into my...

Re: Bell. Definite possibility. The numbers I ran were not adjusted one way or the other for scenarios like the one you mention. Some of the 40 players had careers like Bell. Not totally sure if this helps or hurts your case.

Think some other people to check out for career years might be R. Matthews, Vereen, Gerhart, R. Jennings, and D. Murray. I haven't looked into the numbers as you have though but I plan to do so later. I just noticed they all are entering 4th, 5th, or 6th years and I think they all (except Murray and Gerhart maybe) saw some increased numbers last year. I think they're all in a position to succeed now, too.

If I can figure it out, I'll put up thr graphs and tables for you to check out as well. Cheers.

Last year Murray basically doubled his 2012 output. 2011 and 12 were about the same, so yeah he looks like he could have a real big year (lines up with what many expect with his new offense) Vareen's fantasy points have increased every year of his career so far. Jennings almost tripled his fantasy production last year. Based on your numbers, it seems like last year was Matthews bounce back recovery year. He went 118, 186, 97, 184.

I would be curious to see who you think best fits the bounce back value and the breakout year.

 

[Birdnals]

Last year Murray basically doubled his 2012 output. 2011 and 12 were about the same, so yeah he looks like he could have a real big year (lines up with what many expect with his new offense) Vareen's fantasy points have increased every year of his career so far. Jennings almost tripled his fantasy production last year. Based on your numbers, it seems like last year was Matthews bounce back recovery year. He went 118, 186, 97, 184.

I would be curious to see who you think best fits the bounce back value and the breakout year.

If I can get the graph up, you'll see why I have Matthew tabbed for a big year. On average, the career year followed a bounceback year. Obviously, this conflicts the other finding that players rarely experience two years of an increase but it does happen and sometimes results in a career year. This is also where some judgement has to to be used in addition to the metrics. I think he has the talent plus the situation to make something special happen and it's backed by the trends.

I plan on sifting through current players tomorrow to find those who fit the trends.

 

[Birdnals]

[SIZE=14pt]Players Ready for a Career Year[/SIZE]

Ryan Matthews

Matthews definitely has the ability to succeed (2 seasons of 150+ points in standard scoring) and is in an offense with enough weapons to take the pressure off of him. Entering his 5th season, he is coming off a near career best. I like him to experience a career best next season like the other 21% of running backs who had career years in season 5.

DeMarco Murray

Murray is entering his 4th season and is coming off his best career year. His situation in Dallas definitely looks favorable and he has shown the talent to succeed. This season may not be his peak year, but if he follows the trend of an average running back’s career, this year should be a great year for him.

Rashad Jennings

Entering his 5th season, Jennings’s career trendline exactly mimics the average career trendline of RBs. The only question mark here is situation in New York. He is also yet to produce a 150 point season so he hasn’t yet proven he is capable of having a breakout year.

Joique Bell

Bell’s first two years in the league saw him do nothing. He is entering his 5th season, but in reality, it is only his 3rd season of actually playing football in the league. Last year may have been his early peak (mentioned in first post), or he may well be on his way to a career year, especially if Detroit spreads the ball around again like they did last year with their backs. Whether you want to consider this his 3rd year or 5th year, I still like his chances to improve on last years performance. Players entering their third season after a successful sophomore campaign were the most likely to have back-to-back seasons of improvement (53%) and players entering their 5th season were most likely to have a career year (which also followed a solid year of improvement)

Chris Ivory

Last year Ivory was a bit of a disappointment, despite the fact that he nearly tripled his production from the year before. Maybe expectations were just too high heading into last season. He is now entering his 5th season and his second with a young and developing offense. Don’t expect him to be a bell cow (best season was 105 points), but he has great flex value with potential for RB3.

Lamar Miller

Miller also was considered a letdown last season, but again, I think the expectations were too high. Like Ivory, Miller also tripled his output from the year before. He is entering his 3rd year, and the trends analyzed show that players entering their third year have had the most success in producing back to back seasons of improvement (56%).

[SIZE=14pt]Ready for a Comeback[/SIZE]

C.J. Spiller

After breaking the 200 point threshold in 2012, Spiller busted last year with more than a 25% decrease in performance. The good news is that Spiller has incredible talent, is on a young and developing offense with playmakers now on the outside, and Fred Jackson is another year older. Furthermore, players entering their 5th season after a disappointing 4th season bounce backed 63% of the time (best amongst all years). That, coupled with the fact that most players experience their career year in season 5, suggest Spiller is primed to explode this season.

Shonn Greene

I would keep your expectations modest, but don’t expect him to put in another clunker of a season. He has the ability to be an RB3 despite him putting together a career worst performance last year. Greene is entering his 6th season, and players in his scenario bounced back 53% of the time. This might seem risky but the reward may be high: for those who did bounce back, their performance increased an incredible 210%.

Stevan Ridley

2012 saw Ridley put over 1,200 yards on the ground and over 200 fantasy points. In 2013, his production was nearly cut in half due in part to his inability to secure the ball. I can’t imagine this problem was ignored in the offseason. The talent is definitely there and I would definitely expect him to bounce back like the 56% of running backs who did just that after disappointing 4th seasons.

Doug Martin & Alfred Morris

This may be wishful thinking. I’m lumping these two together since they are both in similar positions. After incredible rookie seasons, both tanked it last year (in fairness, Martin got hurt, but even before that he was stinking it up). With both though, it’s hard to deny the talent they possess. Still though, both are on teams with new coaching staffs, and neither team’s offense have looked all that impressive thus far (yeah I know, it’s only preseason). Players entering their 3rd season after a disappointing 2nd year bounce backed 55% of the time and only experienced a 76% increase in performance.

EDIT: Note sure why I said Rashad Jennings was in Oakland...

 

[Ilov80s]

Good work. I am sure it was a lot of work, so it is appreciated. I would be curious to see another 40 RBs analyzed to see the trends remain similar (obviously not something that can be done quickly).

 

[silentcoach]

 

[SacramentoBob]

How are you defining increase/decrease?

 

[Birdnals]

Quick side note that makes me lose confidence in Alfred Morris's ability to bounce back. Out of the four outstanding back Shanahan coached in Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Terrell Davis, and Olandis Gary, all but TD had their best season in their rookie year. Just sayin.

 

[Birdnals]

How are you defining increase/decrease?

Fantasy points per season, standard scoring

 

[SacramentoBob]

How are you defining increase/decrease?

Fantasy points per season, standard scoring

Right but... how much of an increase before you consider it an "increase". An increase of 1 point isn't much to talk about, especially after a down year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

So where is a better spot to look for value? Damaged goods, particularly within players in their first six years in the league. Overall, 51% of the players bounced back from a decrease in performance with an increase. Within the first six years of their career, this number was 56%. Players who had a down year in their fourth season bounced back 63% of the time. The average increase: 121%!

Ray Rice is in his 7th year.

Arian Foster is in his 6th year.

How do they figure in to this? They don't?

 

[Ilov80s]

Quick side note that makes me lose confidence in Alfred Morris's ability to bounce back. Out of the four outstanding back Shanahan coached in Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Terrell Davis, and Olandis Gary, all but TD had their best season in their rookie year. Just sayin.

He doesn't need to top his rookie year to have a good fantasy year. He went from 247 to 177. If he recovers enough just to get to say 200, he will be deserving of his current draft spot. Anything closer to 247 would just be gravy.

 

[Birdnals]

How are you defining increase/decrease?

Fantasy points per season, standard scoring

Right but... how much of an increase before you consider it an "increase". An increase of 1 point isn't much to talk about, especially after a down year.

That's an excellent point. I just filtered out any increases or decreases of less than 5% in the data I had. The overall numbers didn't change that much. The percent of players who bounced back went from 51% to 49%. Players entering year 3 and 8 took the biggest hit, going down from 55% to 50% and 36% to 31%, respectively. As far as stringing together back-to-back seasons of improvement, players whose decrease was less than 5% were eliminated. Not improvement, but not a significant enough decrease to raise alarm. Here, the overall chance of pulling this off increased from 37% to 39% with year 3 and year 4 players going from 56% to 60% and 35% to 39%, respectively.

My main point when I analyzed how many players increase was to see how possible it was to catch a "rising star," i.e. should we expect a player who's performance is trending up to continue doing so? I have a feeling that players on the rise might have an inflated draft stock because people expect them to improve year after year. Again, I didn't research the correlation between this and draft position, but none the less, the numbers show that only 40% of the time does a player continue to elevate their performance.

So where is a better spot to look for value? Damaged goods, particularly within players in their first six years in the league. Overall, 51% of the players bounced back from a decrease in performance with an increase. Within the first six years of their career, this number was 56%. Players who had a down year in their fourth season bounced back 63% of the time. The average increase: 121%!

Ray Rice is in his 7th year.

Arian Foster is in his 6th year.

How do they figure in to this? They don't?

Re: Arian Foster. Players having a down year in their 5th season did better the next season 53% of time, so close to a coin flip. He's got the talent and I would pick him up if he fell to me in the right spot, but my intuition tells me there is going to be a lot more to his scenario than numerical analysis might indicate.

Re: Rice. I was extremely close to putting him on my list and probably should have been on there. He's had a decrease in performance two years in a row now, and players entering their 7th year had an increase in performance after a down year 50% of the time. Still though, with the talent and situation he has, I'd be hard pressed not to grab him at his current position or a little before. All signs point to him being part of that 50% and the average increase for those guys was 137%.

Thanks for bringing that to my attention and making me rethink it!

 

[Bud]

Interesting read, nice work.