Every year, at every position, and for MOST players, there are always comparisons saying this guys is like Frank Gore. This guy is like Wes Welker, this guys is Jason Witten. On and on and on. And, for the vast majority, if you go back and review them after a few years, they are dead wrong.
Comparing a guy that has played in the NFL with a guy who hasn't is almost pointless. Not the comparison, but to post and say so universally that Richardson is "clearly better". There is almost no way to prove that today, in the present.
Last year at this time, there threads putting Mark Ingram in the Hall of fame and he was the best prospect since ADP and he was comparable to Frank Gore. Did we see Frank Gore II last year? Is anyone talking about him right now, today?
Its just the hype of rookies and for that reason, I would take JSTEW straight up in a trade of the two because If Richardson comes in and has a Ryan Matthews rookie season, the value falls. If he comes in and has a Mark Ingram season, the value really falls ("Uh Oh, maybe we overrated these Alabama RBs"). If he comes in and has a Jamal Lewis Rookie season, his value is solid, but not as high as it right now in some people's minds because he has to BE like ADP to justify the expectations of what people are saying (and presumably are getting in trades for the 1.01 pick). But JSTEW? He can do less than he did a few years ago when he was top 10 and even less than what he did last season and STILL, one year from today, his value will be sky high because the masses will be saying "FINALLY! JSTEW is ready to be THE guy on a team". Richardson might be the better player. He might put up the better numbers. We will see. But if you are wanting to pick one for value on your fantasy team, there is no contest. It is JSTEW by a mile!
I realize it's an old post but. Do you still feel this way? You can change tune now if you'd like, now that we know landing spots (Stewart stays in CAR, Trent in CLE). We also have Trent's latest knee issue. I'm also not sure if someone has already mentioned any of below items so not trying to steal thunder, more trying to ramble for 10 of my 10 minutes without wasting time to proof or read. It doesn't matter what Trent does on the field, the chances that Trent carries less value than Stewart's upside in dynasty start-ups next off-season (as the point you attempt to make above) is far slimmer than Trent having a Mathews-like offseason and dropping to late 3rd/early 4th start-up value as Mathews did. Let's say Stewart produces RB8 stats (legitimately here, how high can he really get for this coming season?).. of the guys ranked above him in short-term points on Stewart's probable short-term upside.. 6/7 are younger than him. Stewart was being "aggressively drafted" this off-season as a late 2nd rounder. Aggressively. How much higher can he really go next off-season with the QB/TE/WR, 6 younger RB than him (not considering Trent). I don't see much upside here in terms of value...again, not my only metric, but the one you are trying to point to above in seemingly flawed reasoning. Meanwhile how far is TRENT really going to far? In this changing landscape of RBBC? HOW MUCH CAN HE REALLY DECREASE? RB~4 now in good dynasty leagues down to RB~8 in good dynasty leagues? He's not falling lower than that with a Mathews-rookie year. [before I move on, Mathews as average RB10-12 in start-ups pre-rookie year at the height of things, RB16-18 afterward. Not exactly a huge drop that I'd want to be using to prove my point in the first place that Trent's value has a long way to go down in a year. Sure the message boards may have started topics to begin the demise of Mathews after his rookie year but you have to sift through that, ya know?]
Trent is a pimp that won't scare away owners from drafting him in the early 2nd as RB6 or so, mid 2nd as RB8-9 in a worst case scenario with a Mathews-like year. Meanwhile Stewart needs to leapfrog, in this season's scoring, Foster, Shady, Rice, healthy DMC, even Mathews when he returns, to really move up in the world. (this is not even to mention somewhat similarly valued dynasty options such as Forte, Charles, Chris Johnson, Martin, Spiller, might be missing some but this suffices).
Mathews and Trent are not comparable in terms of value as prospect coming out, or expected value through and at end of each player's careers. I hate doing this, but it's not remotely close, and thus the argument of this "drop" in value isn't even a potential if we assumed the bracketed sentence above was really a scary drop. Whether you agree or not, owners will accept more bull#### from Trent than Mathews (or obviously, Stewart prospectively after 4 years in the league). Look at it now with Mathews' clavicle that might end his life!!!!! If Trent has a clavicle after missing the same number of games going into year 3 of careers... do you think owners would be jumping off the bandwagon as much? Maybe I'm just gullible but I'm sure as hell not. Wherever I don't own Trent I can't imagine they would either.
Stewart's a better prospect than Mathews, doesn't mean he has a better career. Trent and Stewart are closer and an argument can be made either way.
it may make more sense if you read the above in a frantic nature