Trip’s top 3 Most Overvalued RBs – Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

[Interseptopus]

I'm not holding my breath for all of this to happen, but it is certainly possible. We already know Gordon has a very high floor, and this illustrates that he also has a high ceiling.

 

This is for certain. I was unaware of all of those changes in LAC. Good post. I agree, there is room for more yards and TDs definitely. In redraft he's someone who could exceed his production last year if he can remain healthy. I think it's much more likely for Fournette to not meet last year's numbers than it is for Gordon to significantly take a dump this season. Hunt I do like though, and I think he does just as well as last season if not better. I get concerned about Gordon holding up for an entire season, but PPG Gordon should exceed both of those RBs. It's just a matter of how many games he plays. 

 

[TripItUp]

I'd like to hear your arguments for Hunt and Fournette "significantly" exceeding their rookie numbers.

I don't have a lot of time today but in short.

Elite runningbacks often see an uptick their sophomore seasons, see Emmit Smith LT and countless other RBs that had that uptick...this would apply to both Fournette and Hunt.  Teams get better at utilizing their talents, the year of experience increases efficiency metrics.

For Hunt specifically, Mahomes may open up that entire offense if reports out of KC are accurate...providing more redzone touches and more room for Hunt to operate.  

For Fournette, he faced the most stacked boxes in the league last year and battled ankle injuries.  Jax has been working all offseason on how to better utilize Fournette, who may be the best pure runner in the game...he has 2K 20TD upside.

 

[TripItUp]

Reasons to like Melvin Gordon:

Even if we include his disappointing rookie year where he didn't score a single TD, Gordon has a 16 game average of 1400 and 9. His 16 game pace the last 2 seasons has been 1600 and 13. 

He just turned 25 so he is right at his peak.

His competition is a UDFA and a 7th rounder. 

He plays on what most people expect to be a good team with a strong offense. 

He catches passes- he was the 7th most targeted RB in the NFL last year with 79. 

Sure he hasn't been very efficient but who cares, he gets massive volume. He has missed 5 games in 3 years as an NFL RB. So what? These guys get hurt, it is part of the game. Cook 10 games last year. Fournette has a history of ankle problems so I am not sure why they aren't being discounted for it but Gordon is. 

I'm just not a fan of the low efficiency volume guys, everything has to go right for them to hit their ceiling.   

I will admit that Gordon is a good high floor guy if that fits your overall draft strategy.   

Would you agree that last year's volume and TD total is close to Gordon's ceiling?

 

[gianmarco]

Not very likely...we have 3 years of data that that suggest he is a sub 4.0 YPC back.  YPC typically goes down, not up, as RBs age given all other environmental factors are even which they mostly are in this instance.  You'd have to really believe in an O Line improvement to justify projecting a 4.2 YPC for Gordon.

I don't agree here at all. Given how poor their O-Line has been his 1st 3 years, it's very hard to say that's who he is.

Just off the top of my head, guys like Lynch, Thomas Jones, and even Tiki Barber are guys that got much better as their careers went on.

 

[TripItUp]

I don't agree here at all. Given how poor their O-Line has been his 1st 3 years, it's very hard to say that's who he is.

Just off the top of my head, guys like Lynch, Thomas Jones, and even Tiki Barber are guys that got much better as their careers went on.

Melvin Gordon disagreed with you his self and self admitted that his running style sucked.  He improved it, but he is a marginal talent as evidenced by pretty much every metric out there.

 

[Tau837]

everything has to go right for them to hit their ceiling

Doesn't hitting one's ceiling by definition require everything to go right?

If everything doesn't go right, there is still room for improvement, and thus a player cannot have hit his ceiling.

 

[Anarchy99]

As a follow  up on McCoy, he's averaged 20 touches a game in his time with BUF. Now, he could a) get hurt and miss time, b) really become inept and perform way worse, c) lose his job to someone else, or d) play on an offense that is absolutely putrid (like the Rams from a few years ago). Not sure how likely any of those are to happen, but consider the following.

Last year, the #12 fantasy RB in 0 ppr scored 166 points and the #15 fantasy RB scored 152 fantasy points.

In the past 10 seasons, there were 79 RBs that had at least 300 touches on a season. 73 of them scored at least 166 fantasy points (92%) and 77 of them scored at least 152 fantasy points (97%).

Maybe McCoy gets dinged and misses time, but if he gets the football as much as he has been getting it in BUF, he seems like a pretty safe bet to earn back his draft position.

 

[TripItUp]

Doesn't hitting one's ceiling by definition require everything to go right?

If everything doesn't go right, there is still room for improvement, and thus a player cannot have hit his ceiling.

should have said "everything has to go right for them to realize their value"

 

[TripItUp]

As a follow  up on McCoy, he's averaged 20 touches a game in his time with BUF. Now, he could a) get hurt and miss time, b) really become inept and perform way worse, c) lose his job to someone else, or d) play on an offense that is absolutely putrid (like the Rams from a few years ago). Not sure how likely any of those are to happen, but consider the following.

Last year, the #12 fantasy RB in 0 ppr scored 166 points and the #15 fantasy RB scored 152 fantasy points.

In the past 10 seasons, there were 79 RBs that had at least 300 touches on a season. 73 of them scored at least 166 fantasy points (92%) and 77 of them scored at least 152 fantasy points (97%).

Maybe McCoy gets dinged and misses time, but if he gets the football as much as he has been getting it in BUF, he seems like a pretty safe bet to earn back his draft position.

Agree, if you could guarantee that McCoy would stay healthy he'd be much more attractive.   Moreso than other, younger backs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Agree, if you could guarantee that McCoy would stay healthy he'd be much more attractive.   

Can you guarantee me which players will stay healthy? I'd love to hear which ones. That being said, McCoy has missed 1 game the past two seasons and 5 games over the past 5 seasons. Is the health and missing time stigma coming from him turning 30? Are body parts going to start falling off the man now?

 

[TripItUp]

Can you guarantee me which players will stay healthy? I'd love to hear which ones. That being said, McCoy has missed 1 game the past two seasons and 5 games over the past 5 seasons. Is the health and missing time stigma coming from him turning 30? Are body parts going to start falling off the man now?

I would bet a fair amount of money that Zeke Elliot will play more games than McCoy.  It's less about guarantees and more about handicapping.

 

[Anarchy99]

I would bet a fair amount of money that Zeke Elliot will play more games than McCoy.  It's less about guarantees and more about handicapping.

And as always, you get fantasy points when a player players and replacement points from someone else when he doesn't. 10-12 ppg (0 ppr) for 13 games is nothing to sneeze at. I agree health wise Zeke should play more games. Potential suspension wise? That's a different story.

 

[TripItUp]

. Is the health and missing time stigma coming from him turning 30? 

Yes

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/169782/inside-slant-elite-nfl-running-backs-after-30-mmmkay

 

[Anarchy99]

Yes

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/169782/inside-slant-elite-nfl-running-backs-after-30-mmmkay

I wrote multiple articles on RB age, longevity, workload, performance drop off, etc. for FBG over the years. While it is a potential concern, it is not the death knell that it is made out to be. That is reflected in the acquisition cost. The age of massive drop off is higher than 30. More like 31 or 32.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm just not a fan of the low efficiency volume guys, everything has to go right for them to hit their ceiling.   

I will admit that Gordon is a good high floor guy if that fits your overall draft strategy.   

Would you agree that last year's volume and TD total is close to Gordon's ceiling?

No because 2 years ago he was on pace for even more volume and more TD production. His 2016 16 game pace was 313 carries, 50 receptions, 1700 yards and 15 TDs. That seems like the exact kind of upside I would be hoping for out of a 1st round pick. He hasn't been efficient but I think your criticism of his ability is off the mark. He has size and is an above average athlete relative to NFL RBs. He is top 10 in RB targets, rushes, snaps opportunity share, GL Carries and RZ touches. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I wrote multiple articles on RB age, longevity, workload, performance drop off, etc. for FBG over the years. While it is a potential concern, it is not the death knell that it is made out to be. That is reflected in the acquisition cost. The age of massive drop off is higher than 30. More like 31 or 32.

Fred Jackson was RB 10 in standard RB 11 in PPR at age 33 in 2013 for one recent example of a player doing well beyond age 30 and even beyond 32 which is more rare.

Frank Gore being the most recent example. He was RB 18 in standard RB 20 in PPR at age 34 in 2017. Gore was RB 12 in both formats in 2016 at age 33. It should be pointed out that Gore played for a not very good Colts offense and with Brissett not Luck as contributing to that more than his age.

35 is an even riskier bet, but it would not surprise me for Gore to earn a significant role in Miami this year. It will also be a dumpster fire, but Gore likely gets a lot of opportunities.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Gordon's knee is giving him problems. just as I was worried about long ago but ridiculed over when he was having early success in the NFL. in the end he will be the epitome of what I mean when I try to educate people that the positives from microfracture aren't meant to last.

by the way, I like this list. I think you could add 2 more

can you give us a link on the knee for Gordon?  I don't see anything but from last Sept. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

can you give us a link on the knee for Gordon?  I don't see anything but from last Sept. 

I can’t find a single source supporting this either.  A little help please?

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I can’t find a single source supporting this either.  A little help please?

There isn’t any.  Just speculation

 

[Dr. Octopus]

My main concern with Gordon is that he’s being valued at his ceiling and not his median.  Last year was a perfect season for him and that’s what he’s being valued at.

Id rather have several rbs going after him.

All the RBs taken in Rounds 1 and 2 are basically being valued at their ceilings.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

3.  LeSean McCoy – ADP RB#13 2.09 Overall

I actually don’t have a problem with ranking McCoy the #13 RB, what I do think is a bit off is the overall ADP of middle to late second round.  McCoy went from 5.4 in 2016 to 4.0 YPC last year and the offense  doesn’t look like it’s going to take a leap in productivity with the loss of Tyrod Taylor.  McCoy turns 30 in July and it's well documented that history is on your side if you fade 30 year old RBs.  McCoy's DVOA slipped to -10.8 at the age of 29.  McCoy is a Hall of Famer and a true bellcow back, but his age and the circumstances around him make him a risky play given he only scored 8 TDs last year, a number which isn’t likely to improve much if at all.  You are really counting on his volume to justify this high of a draft position and counting on volume from 30 year old backs is a losing proposition.  Take another position in the 2nd round over McCoy.

His o-line may also be one of the worst in the league after multiple departures this offseason.

 

[TripItUp]

All the RBs taken in Rounds 1 and 2 are basically being valued at their ceilings.

I would disagree.

Hunt, Fournette, Freeman and David Johnson are not being drafted at their ceilings IMHO...at least to a lesser degree than Gordon.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don’t see Guice getting 20 touches a game. IMO, McCoy could see 75-100 more touches. 

A lot of this has to do with different approaches to drafting. I think McCoy has a lower ceiling but a much higher floor. So I would fully expect a healthy McCoy to rank RB 10-15. Guice could probably make a run at the Top 5 if everything went his way. But I could also see him in the RB 25-30 range. 

Both BUF and WAS are transitioning to different QBs, so that makes it a little more difficult to decipher. 

When those QBs are Alex Smith versus the “winner” of the Nate Peterman, AJ McCarron and Josh Allen battle it becomes a little easier to decipher what affect the new QB will have on the offense.

 

[Gally]

what about the season before that?  Fool me once...

The fantasy community seems to be pinning a lot on Shannahan turning water into wine...maybe he will, maybe he won't...I'm not willing to risk my 2nd round pick to find out.

McKinnon ran behind one of the all time worst O-lines due to injury.  They were pulling people off the street to suit up because the injuries were so bad.  I don't think any RB would have ran well behind that O-line. 

The McKinnon train will depend on usage (as it does with most FF players).  The money and commitment that SF has put into McKinnon leads to the belief they are going to use him a lot.  If the usage is there he will easily live up to his draft spot even if he is mediocre on his production.  That will happen due to the volume. 

 

[ChuckLiddell]

yeah, I didn't think he would put together a 16 game season, so I felt safe saying that. I was wrong. he had microfracture surgery. hes on my permanent avoid list. same with Ajayi who I owned for 2 years in my keeper league and am happy to be off that train. 

these guys have an earlier expiration date than other players. as gianmarco said, hes already paid dividends for his owners, and thays great. I liked him a lot coming out of WI. I was confident he would do well in the NFL. I'm also confident his end is closer than most people think. I dont need to toot my own horn. history, anatomy, and research is on my side. I'm trying to bring info to those who aren't as knowledgable in these areas and just think all surgeries fix people back to normal. people can take it or leave it. doesnt matter to me. 

best of luck to all Gordon owners. 

I do appreciate the insight.  Gordon has been good, but if microfracture surgery has historically cut careers short, that's good information - even if it has not played out that way yet in this isolated situation.  There are always outliers.  Anyone else besides Gordon and Ajayi that is notable on this list?  Also, any examples from the past?  Appreciate it!

 

[gianmarco]

I do appreciate the insight.  Gordon has been good, but if microfracture surgery has historically cut careers short, that's good information - even if it has not played out that way yet in this isolated situation.  There are always outliers.  Anyone else besides Gordon and Ajayi that is notable on this list?  Also, any examples from the past?  Appreciate it!

Here's 1 read

 

[Interseptopus]

I do appreciate the insight.  Gordon has been good, but if microfracture surgery has historically cut careers short, that's good information - even if it has not played out that way yet in this isolated situation.  There are always outliers.  Anyone else besides Gordon and Ajayi that is notable on this list?  Also, any examples from the past?  Appreciate it!

Past:
Terrell Davis had it in 2002. It was a last ditch effort after his ACL tear/reconstruction but it failed. 
Reggie Bush prior to 2009 season

Past with significant success:
Rod Woodson played over a decade after having his surgery, but a different position than RB... 
Dan Marino
* If you go back and look at who in the NFL has had microfracture, these two names stand out as possibly the most successful since they were very early in their careers and they went on to have HOF careers. It's interesting that with all of the advances in medicine and technology that the two best examples of microfracture are from the very early stages of administering it. 

Current:
Travis Kelce
Jadeveon Clowny his rookie season. He's still of to a slow start

I found an interesting statement from 2007 that says (regarding NFL players):
 

Fifteen players have undergone a microfracture in their 30s. Five of them failed to return to the field, but eight of the 21 players to undergo a microfracture at 25 or younger have never returned. Younger players have averaged more games after surgery -- 33.7 to 26.3, not counting players who are just returning this season.

One of the major question marks about microfracture is how long players can play on what is, essentially, "fake" cartilage -- not as strong as what the knee initially begins with. Only nine players have remained in the NFL for at least five seasons after undergoing a microfracture. 

That second statement is the point I've made extensively to people. This is what the average person doesn't understand. It grows cartilage back but it's not the same as the original cartilage. It will break down because it's not designed to take on the regular strains that our joint cartilage is. Therefore, arthritis sets in earlier. Nothing is better than the original, so this is very much a temporary fix. But it's better than the alternative in many cases (however there are amazing strides being taken to put microfracture out to pasture. Some really cool stuff. I've personally had it done, but unfortunately it has a longer recovery time and the NFL is all about getting back as fast as you can without any regard for your long term health it seems). Sure there will be outliers but the scientific fact is that the cartilage that grows when microfracture is done is not as strong as the original and will break down. This timeline all depends on size of legion, location of legion, and position played of course

 

[Tau837]

Past:
Terrell Davis had it in 2002. It was a last ditch effort after his ACL tear/reconstruction but it failed. 
Reggie Bush prior to 2009 season

Past with significant success:
Rod Woodson played over a decade after having his surgery, but a different position than RB... 
Dan Marino
* If you go back and look at who in the NFL has had microfracture, these two names stand out as possibly the most successful since they were very early in their careers and they went on to have HOF careers. It's interesting that with all of the advances in medicine and technology that the two best examples of microfracture are from the very early stages of administering it. 

Current:
Travis Kelce
Jadeveon Clowny his rookie season. He's still of to a slow start

Terrell Davis is a poor example for a few reasons:

1. He had only played 17 games total in the 3 seasons prior to his microfracture surgery in 2002, and had clearly not played at anything close to the level he played prior to his ACL and MCL tears in 1999.
   
2. He was nearly 30 when he had the surgery.
   
3. His surgery was 16 years ago.
   

Bottom line, Davis should not be viewed as a good comp IMO.

You mention Bush, Woodson, Marino, and Kelce as being success stories, and I agree with those.

Here are some other success stories:

• RB Deshaun Foster had the surgery at age 22 and his entire NFL career followed. He wasn't a great player, but he played 7 seasons in the NFL and had more than 1000 YFS in 3 of them.
  
• WR Marques Colston had the surgery in both 2009 and 2011. He had 1024+/7+ in each season 2009-2012 and 900+/5 in 2013-2014.
  
• DE Bruce Smith had the surgery in February 1998 and played 6 more seasons. He made the Pro Bowl in 1998.
  
• C Tom Nalen had the surgery in November 2002 at age 31 and was All Pro in 2003. He also started every game for Denver from 2003-2006.
  

This 2007 article makes reference to a list of 61 NFL players who had had the surgery at that time. The link to the list is broken, but the article references that 15 OL, 16 DL, 8 safeties, and 1 WR (Jeffers) were on the list at that time. It also mentions 2 QBs (Marino and Batch) and 2 RBs (Davis and Foster). So that categorizes 44 of the 61 players at that time.

Altogether, it seems that there is a very small known sample of NFL skill position players who have had the surgery. Certainly not enough to make a trend. And comparing an elite level athlete like an NFL skill position player, who has access to the best possible surgeons, rehab/therapy, strength and conditioning, and nutrition resources/programs, to the general population really doesn't make sense. It is apples and oranges.

So every case like Gordon's has to be treated individually IMO. Gordon had the surgery in January 2016. Since then he has had 2 top 7 RB seasons. There are no reports about Gordon having any health problems this offseason. So there is no reason to expect Gordon's knee will be a problem for him this season.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

You really have to look into the season to see why McKinnon's numbers were what they were, and realize the Vikings had already made up their mind that McKinnon was not a starting RB. The 1st 4 weeks of the season Dalvin Cook was given the starting load and averaged 12.4 points in my league, good for the #10 RB spot. He was injured and McKinnon was the full time back from week 5-9 (including his bye week), in which time he averaged 16.18 points per start and was the #3 RB. The team went undefeated during the McKinnon workhorse stretch. The Vikings then were ready to bring Murray back and give him the starting roll, using McKinnon in a timeshare as the #2 back.

I'm a little more confident that Shanahan will use McKinnon to his abilities than the Vikings, who had clearly pigeon-holed McKInnon as a backup. If things go really bad in SF, McKinnon could fall out of the top 20 RBs (does it even matter, the difference between RB15 & 24 was less than 1 point in my league)

What kind of scoring setup ?