Interseptopus
Footballguy
Collins was used plenty st the goal line as the season wore on.
weapons in the passing game are good for Collins
Jackson is much better for Collins
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Trip's Top 6 Most Undervalued RBs - Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
weapons in the passing game are good for Collins
Jackson is much better for Collins
TripItUp
Footballguy
Blount finished top 10 in most formats with limited receptions just two seasons ago.
Let's not pretend there is no path to a top 10 finish here.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
did blount take 60% of the snaps, as you say is Michels path to top 10? or are.you just trying to find an example of a NE rb to prove possible?
you said Michel would be the lead guy in an offense that hasn't had a lead back in almost 15 seasons. Blount was top 10 because he scored a lot of touchdowns. Michel stands to lose goal line carries to Burkhead.
you are comparing apples to oranges... unless you're changing your prediction and you think Michel will be used like Blount was
if anything, you just made anarchys point for him. Michel needs TDs to finish top 10, and he doesnt project to get them
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TripItUp
Footballguy
This is a somewhat jumbled post...not sure what your points are here.
And I never said "lead back", let's not make things up. I did imply that 60% of snaps is a realistic outcome.
Also, Blount had 7 receptions two years ago, Michel would not need as many TDs as Blount to match Blount's FF impact.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
With Lewis being hurt and missing half the season (and never being right when he did play). As I mentioned earlier, Burkhead averaged almost a TD a game last year. And when was the last rookie skilled position player did anything for BB? Gronk had 10 TD as a rookie, but overall nothing remarkable. Everyone else has been mediocre. Maroney was the best of the rookie backs (939 yfs with 7 TD).
If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick a season for Michel to have in 2018 of either Blount in 2016 or Maroney in 2006, I would take Maroney's stat line as the more likely outcome.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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Tau837
Footballguy
In total points, maybe, but not in ppg. Are you really using total points to support your posts?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
12.5 fantasy points per game puts him at 14th tied with Jordan Howard last year. 14th is not top 10
16.5 fantasy points per game will get him into the top 10.
not happening.
nor is 10 TDs.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
so then what's your prediction? you predict top 10. let's see what that looks like to you.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
lol. cant make this stuff up
what's the point of this post? most undervalued RBs, but you could say 15 RBs have top 5 potential. why not just have a top 15 RB thread? why even say Michel could have top 5 potential but the only stats you come up with put him as a rb2? then you retreat with playing semantics of "well I said he could have top 5 potential". Give me a break.
what's top 5 look like to you for Michel? what stats? stop dancing around it and put up or shut up. tired of these "look at me" threads created for no reason but for people to just "hear themselves talk." if you say someone has top 5 or 10 potential, you'd better bring some stats and some logical reasoning to back that up. instead of playing word games and dodging the question.
let's see it. what's Michel's top 5 finish look like if he lives up to the potential you see
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I probably won't own many shares of Michel this season mainly because I have a hard time trusting the RB situation on a BB team--but I agree that Michel has a ton of upside in regards to his talent. I personally think that 10 td's might be optimistic for him--but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get more than 30 recps on the season. In general--I'd like to thank you for this entire thread as it's a very cool topic. There are some nice points being made on both sides.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Step 1: I make a statement he has top 5 upside at a cheap price tag
Step 2: I give very realistic projections, because Anarchy requested them
Step 3: you confused upside statement with projection post, which are two different topics
I'm done responding to your posts with negative tones, particularly when you have trouble following the conversation. Nobody asked you to join this thread.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The irony here is I have been expecting NE to have Brady transition to more of a game manager role with flashes of brilliance with more of an emphasis on the ground game and defense for several years.
So as a Pats fan I would like to see them try to win more games 20-10 than relying on Brady to have to score 30 every game (which wasn’t enough in the SB).
So the real question in all this is would NE transform from a pass happy offense with a RBBC model to more of a ground and pound approach from a rookie back.
NE has often reinvented their offense. But this much of a transformation in the hands of a rookie seems to be a bit hard to buy into, and least on first blush.
So as a Pats fan I would like to see them try to win more games 20-10 than relying on Brady to have to score 30 every game (which wasn’t enough in the SB).
So the real question in all this is would NE transform from a pass happy offense with a RBBC model to more of a ground and pound approach from a rookie back.
NE has often reinvented their offense. But this much of a transformation in the hands of a rookie seems to be a bit hard to buy into, and least on first blush.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Are you really not understanding what he's saying?
I can make what I think is a reasonable projection for a player - while seeing that there is upside for more (and on the flip side some players carry tremendous risk to fall far below those projections).
Projections =| Rankings. Rankings need to consider ceilings, floors, upside and risk. projections are a tool to establish rankings.
I believe I read he actually had a really poor fumbling rate in college. Something along one fumble every 50-ish touches, which made this a really strange draft pick to me.
I suppose if you're a glass half full type of guy you gotta assume Bill saw an easily coachable fix, as I'm sure he's not unaware of his college fumbling rate or his own hatred of fumbles.
If you're a glass half empty guy, you worry that he's got an elevated risk to ride the bench as other fumblers have in the past.
Personally, with so many other options available at a similar price, I'm inclined to look elsewhere for redraft and probably even dynasty (have not had the tough choice to make in my drafts).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Is it wrong to ask for projections for someone's ceiling and floor? Those are often given out on this forum. If he's going to say someone has top 5 potential ceiling, I'm asking why; give me some stats. How is he going to do it? Receptions? TDs? Yards? All 3? He feels that Michel will be used in a way that will allow for a top 5 finish at his ceiling. Great. I'm interested.
I think this is incredibly pertinent information because saying a team that has used RBBC over the last 15ish years has potential to produce a top 5 fantasy RB is quite the statement. The only way this has been done in the past is when one particular RB was a monster with TDs. If he thinks Michel is going to be the goal line back and could be in line for 15-20 TDs, that's something I'm interested in discussing: Why does he feel that way, what makes him think Burkhead is going to lose the job- let's discuss things that matter. I think it's great someone has the guts to say something so bold. I'm just curious why. Maybe I'd buy on Michel if it's looking like he's the GL back. I think it's reasonable to say he can score 10-15 TDs as a ceiling if he gets that job exclusively. But all he's said is 60% of the snaps and given a reasonable prediction putting him at RB14. That's great, but doesn't do much to get me excited about a top 5 potential.
FWIW I do think Michel is an underrated RB. FBG grades him out at RB28 right now in PPR redraft. I think that might be a little low. I think he has RB2 upside and I think 1200 total yards, 40 receptions and 3-4 TDs isn't unreasonable. I think Burkhead actually is equally as valuable this year as the goal line back. Michel will be a much better NFL RB than fantasy, but have some good fantasy value. If I were to say he has top 5 potential and then give a lot of evidence as to why he'd be a good RB2... I'm not really offering much.
It's one thing to give a reasonable projection at RB2 and to say there's upside for low RB1, but it's another thing to give a reasonable projection at RB2 and then say there's upside for a top 5 finish. That's quite the leap.
I could certainly make an argument for it and I don't even believe it will happen... you'd think it'd be easier for someone who feels strongly about this to do so: Brady is 40, and NE already was top 10 in carries and top 5 in yards in the league in rushing statistics last year. They have been playing RB roulette over the last several years because they haven't had the complete package. Sony has it. If they committed to a single back getting the majority of the carries, it leaves the door open to at least a top 10 finish. Burkhead got the goal line carries in the second half of the year, but then was hurt. When he came back in the playoffs he had appeared to fall out of favor, or was still hurt. At this point it's unknown who is going to be in favor of the goal line carries, but there is a door open for Michel to grab that role given he was successful at this in college and his draft pedigree
As I said, I don't believe the above; I don't think BB will go with a single back. I think he likes keeping his players healthy. He likes keeping them fresh during the games so they can avoid fumbles and mental errors. And he likes playing with the defensive coordinator's/players' minds / likes to be unpredictable with different RBs in different packages. BB is playing chess and the more pieces he has the better. I don't see BB changing his philosophy on how he has run the ball for almost the last 15 years
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
In those 3 seasons, Dion Lewis finished as the 15th RB in fantasy points per game, Blount finished 8th and then in 2015 it's not even really fair to say Blount because Lewis was the lead back (12th in ppg) before his injury with a pace of 151 touches. Thats the thing about New England, it does not take many touches for a RB to be very valuable for fantasy. If you look at team points scored from the RB position over the last decade, it is clear that investing in a Patriots RB is a good idea.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yes. I agree. The maddening part is trying to pick the best one. Just because Michel is a 1st round RB doesn't mean he won't bust or fall out of favor with BB. One fumble can put him on the bench for 3 games which is enough for someone else to grab the role and run with it
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dion Lewis was a top 5 back through 7 weeks in 2015 before he was injured.
I don't think Michel has top 5 potential this season but I think he's fits the thread. I think you're looking for a big "gotcha moment" from the OP because perhaps he was a bit hyperbolic. Let it go. Do you want him to post 1,300 10 45-679 so you can say "no way he gets that".
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree and drafting Burkhead isn't a bad move either. However, when I look at the consistently high number of points from the RB position NE produces and the trend for 1st round RB touches, it seems to warrant a pretty high fantasy pick.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Not looking for a gotcha at all. I'm not that kind of poster. Just looking for specifics. If he said Michel has top 10 upside without giving any stats I would have accepted it (like I have with Freeman. I disagree about Freeman but the opportunity is definitely there for him to finish top 10 if he can take the lead back role). To say top 5 is quite incredible and I'm curious as to why. 60% of the snaps may get him into the top 10. I agree completely although I don't think he gets 60% of the snaps. What gets him into the top 5? I may disagree with that as well, but at least giving a specific would help the conversation.
I would agree- long term he has incredible potential. I think he has top 5 potential in dynasty definitely. But that's tied to what NE does post-Brady and if BB sticks around or not (although I would expect McDaniels to take over and not much to change)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It was not untill game 6 of the 2017 season that Lewis was given double digit carries in a game. From that point on, he had a 16 game pace of 1400 and 11 total yards/TDs. That equates to 13 standard ppg which would have been between Dalvin Cook and Lesean McCoy last year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We are starting to get away from the point of the thread (which is always a good topic). But everything NE RB related needs to be taken in context. Yes, Lewis put up strong numbers down the stretch last year. However:
- Burkhead was hurt and missed the last few games
- White was banged up and missed time and the last few games
- Brady was banged up some, as was the OL, so the team passed less frequently
- Edelman was out the entire season
- Hogan was banged up and essentially missed the second half of the season
IMO, that played a huge part in Lewis emerging and having a bigger workload. In fact, I would say that was the only reason he had 60+ touches over the last two weeks of the season. From Weeks 6-15 (when NE started using Lewis more), in PPR leagues Lewis ranked 19th in ppg (1 ppr leagues). With no Burkhead or White available for Weeks 16-17, Lewis had monster touches and ranked 2ns in ppg over the final two weeks.
Morphing that into 2018, sure, if lots of guys get hurt, Brady gets nicked, and Michel is the last man standing of the RBs, then yes, Michel will put up monster numbers. I think when everyone healthy, with so many weapons and players to choose from, all NE players not named Brady will see their fantasy values dip (and are thus therefore overrated in fantasy circles). There's only one (deflated) football to go around.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I need to see more out of training camp and preseason. I have a feeling Michel (whom I love) will fall to me but either Freeman or Jones will be my other option. Because of his landing spot and all that comes with it I’m not sure if will draft him. I believe in his talent that’s not an issue (except the fumbles) I’ve been very, very unfortunate to have had NE running backs in the past and I’m not sure if I really want to deal with headaches and constant worrying if Sony is going to get 10 touches, goal line carries, passes, etc......
Just not sure it’s worth it but will hold out because I believe we’ll going to some idea if he’s worth draft head of the other backs who will be on the board at the same time.
Tex
Just not sure it’s worth it but will hold out because I believe we’ll going to some idea if he’s worth draft head of the other backs who will be on the board at the same time.
Tex
Ilov80s
Footballguy
All exellent points. I will say the first 7 games of 2015 before his injury, Lewis was on pace for 1422 and 9. So it wasn't the only stretch of time we saw New England make Dion Lewis into a low end RB1.
The threat for early down and garbage time work might actually be a dark horse. Jeremy Hill was a very un-Pats like signing at first glance. His yards per carry have sucked for two years... but four years ago he had 1100 yards and 9 TDs rushing. Why the precipitous drop? Some blame the critical fumble in the 2016 playoff game. Cincy failed to rebuild his psyche after that and a runner that lacks confidence is not an effective runner.
A potential comp for Jeremy Hill might turn out to be Blount. Another runner that was also improperly developed by his first NFL team. Pats brought him in and redefined football for him.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I'm really glad we have threads like this because it forces more in depth conversations and offers opportunities for posters to kind of plant their flag on one side or the other. I think this will continue to become more and more important because I do not feel the off season and more importantly the preseason games are going to offer us as much info/insight as it has in the past and will continue to get worse. I think the trend is moving to not really play many of the guys locked in on the 53 man roster. I think teams are too scared of injury and also really don't want to let us know how they may use a guy like Michel, or Burkhead, or White...or CLE let us know about Hyde or Chubb, etc. I think teams are willing to maybe be a little less prepared in terms of continuity heading into week 1. While week 3 may still be the dress reherasal wek, I think you will see that start to fade away a little as well. Teams will just try to use practice to get their core together and on the same page. And the thing is"reports out of practice" usually indicate that all of the guys on the teams are going to be future HOF'ers.
With that said, I think it makes NE the toughest of all to get a read on, because I think BB will have a plan in place and we all what a piece of that pie, but I doubt we see what it will actually be. And then even after a few weeks in may change drastically. Insert Gillislee 2017 here. IMO you are rolling the dice on any NE back and it is nobodys fault but your own if you end up with dead weight on your roster (Insert Gillislee here again). Man I so bad want a piece of that offense, but I'm not sure its worth the risk and the weekly starting lineup nightmare. IMO I view almost all of Burkhead/White/Michel being drafted around the same area, White probably a little later, but I wouldn't have confidence taking any of them as more than a possible FLEX play in my starting lineup and I would probably draft them accordingly. I am currently taking that mindset with these guys unless something drastically changes. It will almost be a luxury if it falls in my lap, but I want to be able to easily swap one of them out for a better WR play that week or something, and also limit the collateral damage should it turn into another Gillisee situation. Those that roll the dice and hit and gain a big advantage should one of them jump into the top 10, more power to you and great call.
With that said, I think it makes NE the toughest of all to get a read on, because I think BB will have a plan in place and we all what a piece of that pie, but I doubt we see what it will actually be. And then even after a few weeks in may change drastically. Insert Gillislee 2017 here. IMO you are rolling the dice on any NE back and it is nobodys fault but your own if you end up with dead weight on your roster (Insert Gillislee here again). Man I so bad want a piece of that offense, but I'm not sure its worth the risk and the weekly starting lineup nightmare. IMO I view almost all of Burkhead/White/Michel being drafted around the same area, White probably a little later, but I wouldn't have confidence taking any of them as more than a possible FLEX play in my starting lineup and I would probably draft them accordingly. I am currently taking that mindset with these guys unless something drastically changes. It will almost be a luxury if it falls in my lap, but I want to be able to easily swap one of them out for a better WR play that week or something, and also limit the collateral damage should it turn into another Gillisee situation. Those that roll the dice and hit and gain a big advantage should one of them jump into the top 10, more power to you and great call.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
We all know what top 5 numbers look like - Michel would need to become the Pats primary pass catcher at RB (unlikely) and score high volume of TDs (possible but unlikely). I think he's under-rated because I see him as potentially a better all around version of Dion Lewis who was able to put up big numbers when healthy in NE despite guys like Blount, White and Burkhead being mixed in. The NE offense creates valuable fantasy RBs and Michel was a bug investment for them and is a great talent. I think he's be a solid RB2 in 2018 (he has RB1 upside but it would take fortuitous circumstances for him to get there).Dr. Dan said:
But which one? We should want to invest in good offenses but determining which New England running back will be the flavor of the week is a headache I would rather not invest in and saying any of them will approach top-5 positionally in fantasy points is going way out on a limb.Ilov80s said:
