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Trip's Top 8 Undervalued WRs - Redraft PPR (1 Viewer)

RE: Chark. I forget which podcast but someone mentioned facts on rookie QBs being able to sustain multiple relevant WRs in fantasy. The data they presented was pretty stark- (maximum) one relevant WR is really a highly more likely outcome.  On top of that in another pod. they mentioned that Marvin Jones Jr. has the same skill set as Chark but does everything better. They sought him out in FA. Laviska Shenault at current cost is the only one of these three WRs that stands out as someone that has a real ceiling. It's more likely that it's anyone's guess. Chark hasn't been fantasy relevant in over a year. And they're going to be targeting Etienne a bunch. I can see it with Chark but I think consistent value at that ADP is really iffy. I'd rather have Jeudy's upside or Boyd's floor at that spot- both going after him. I think there are at least 7 WR's going after him I'd rather have. I think he should be going in the 11th or later. Thank you for pumping him up though.

RE: DJ Moore- Darnold's TD rate is ATROCIOUS. Like half of league average last year when TDs were up across the league due to no holding being called. Worse last year but historically has been well below league average. DJ Moore is tremendously talented but there's a lot of people investing in two very talented WRs and a pass catching RB for a QB that hasn't shown signs of ability to sustain multiple relevant WRs for a while. Maybe it was the Gase effect but Gase's QB TD rates were worse with Darnold than with other QBs.  I'm out on these dudes at their ADP. 

Re Golladay- what on earth is going on with his hip. I traded for him last year when he was coming back and then... was he upset with the team? Really, how's that hip? I think he's super talented and I like the pairing with what Daniel Jones does well but what's up with the hip and you have to kind of wonder how much volume he's going to be getting. Giant's O line is atrocious and there's a lot of other reasonable talent at WR on that team. 

Love Jeudy, think you might be onto something with Elijah but that offense is going to be a work in progress this year, you might be a year early on him.

I think you're right on Gallup. With the injury news on Cooper, I think his ADP is going to jump a round before I'm drafting.

 
Again, I don't see the math where Golloday gets more targets playing in NY. Over his last three seasons in DET, he averaged 7.5 targets per game (essentially 120 targets in a full 16 game season).
More targets relative to his ranking, not relative to Detroit. 

How soon we forget Golladay was a top 5 WR with just 65 receptions on 116 targets in 2019.  

Golladay is a manchild that just needs opportunity.

 
RE: Chark. I forget which podcast but someone mentioned facts on rookie QBs being able to sustain multiple relevant WRs in fantasy. The data they presented was pretty stark- (maximum) one relevant WR is really a highly more likely outcome.  On top of that in another pod. they mentioned that Marvin Jones Jr. has the same skill set as Chark but does everything better. They sought him out in FA. Laviska Shenault at current cost is the only one of these three WRs that stands out as someone that has a real ceiling. It's more likely that it's anyone's guess. Chark hasn't been fantasy relevant in over a year. And they're going to be targeting Etienne a bunch. I can see it with Chark but I think consistent value at that ADP is really iffy. I'd rather have Jeudy's upside or Boyd's floor at that spot- both going after him. I think there are at least 7 WR's going after him I'd rather have. I think he should be going in the 11th or later. Thank you for pumping him up though.


I'm higher on Lawrence than most and don't consider him the typical rookie QB.  Jones is slower than Chark and there is a lot of data that having a complimentary receiver actually helps the other receiver.  I'll try to find that data/summary.    Chark was injured last year and generally the team was a greasefire, this just seems like a great buy low to me as I'm a believer in Charks overall skillset and work ethic. I do agree that Chark may have a lower floor than some of the other WRs getting drafted around his ADP...he's definitely a little bit more of a risk/reward selection.

RE: DJ Moore- Darnold's TD rate is ATROCIOUS. Like half of league average last year when TDs were up across the league due to no holding being called. Worse last year but historically has been well below league average. DJ Moore is tremendously talented but there's a lot of people investing in two very talented WRs and a pass catching RB for a QB that hasn't shown signs of ability to sustain multiple relevant WRs for a while. Maybe it was the Gase effect but Gase's QB TD rates were worse with Darnold than with other QBs.  I'm out on these dudes at their ADP. 


Moore nearly had a 1200 yard year last year with only 4 TDs and now has a better QB.   I wouldn't overthink this, particularly if you believe positive TD regression is coming.

Re Golladay- what on earth is going on with his hip. I traded for him last year when he was coming back and then... was he upset with the team? Really, how's that hip? I think he's super talented and I like the pairing with what Daniel Jones does well but what's up with the hip and you have to kind of wonder how much volume he's going to be getting. Giant's O line is atrocious and there's a lot of other reasonable talent at WR on that team. 


see prior post

 think you might be onto something with Elijah but that offense is going to be a work in progress this year, you might be a year early on him.


certainly could be a year early but I like the asking price.

I think you're right on Gallup. With the injury news on Cooper, I think his ADP is going to jump a round before I'm drafting.
' :hifive:

 
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Seems like some people are sleeping on Chark. Potential #1 production from your #3 WR? Yes please.

Golladay overrated and too many mouths to feed. Pass

 
Oooh, can I answer?

The word I'm thinking of is "unsustainable".


what do you project targets for Golladay at this year?  Keeping in mind the Giants just signed him to a 70 Million dollar contract.

Also keeping in mind that he needed just 116 in 2019 to be the 5th best fantasy WR.

 
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what do you project targets for Golladay at this year?  Keeping in mind the Giants just signed him to a 70 Million dollar contract.

Also keeping in mind that he needed just 116 in 2019 to be the 5th best fantasy WR.
I don't create projections, but Mike Clay has him down for 120, which translates to WR27 in fantasy points.

This feels about right, I put a significant discount on a target from Jones compared to one from Stafford.

 
what do you project targets for Golladay at this year?  Keeping in mind the Giants just signed him to a 70 Million dollar contract.

Also keeping in mind that he needed just 116 in 2019 to be the 5th best fantasy WR.
Where to start with Golladay . . .

In 2019, he scored 11 TD in 16 GP. The rest of his career he has scored 10 TD in 31 GP. DET that season threw 571 passes and had 28 passing TD. The Giants last year had 517 passing attempts and only 12 passing TD. In 2019, KG averaged 18.3 YPR . . . the rest of his career he's averaged 15.9. IMO, it's pretty clear that 2019 was a production level greater than the rest of his playing career . . . yet in this case that is being used as the baseline for his production level in 2021.

The past three seasons, playing with a much better QB, indoors, on turf, Golladay ranked WR22, WR12, and WR 36 based on fantasy PPG in PPR leagues. In 2019, he averaged 15.62 fantasy PPG to rank 12th, but that average last year would have ranked 16th as there was more offense leaguewide last year (well, except for the Giants). In 2019, Golladay on a per game basis, was closer to the #72 WR (Anthony Miller) than he was the #1 WR (Michael Thomas).

Put another way, if Golladay lost a 30 yard TD reception in the 2019 season, his year end ranking would have been WR20 based on PPG scoring. Looking at the past three seasons, Golladay was one play away from ranking WR22, WR20, WR36 . . . which looks suspiciously similar to his current ADP of WR24 . . . and that was playing on a better offense than the Giants (with less competition for targets than he will have in NY).

As already mentioned, the Giants have more (and likely better) receiving options than the Lions did. Barkley, Shephard, Slayton, and Engram have all typically seen 7+ targets per game . . . and now they added Toney and Rudolph.

On a team that threw the ball more frequently, the Lions had one other player average 7 targets per game (Jones at exactly 7.0 targets per game) in 2019. But Jones, Amendola, and Hockenson all missed time with injuries . . . which left more targets for Golladay.

Granted, some of the target data for NYG is misleading in that rarely have had all those players been healthy and suited up together. But my point still stands that the Giants have many other options to throw to . . . and I personally don't see Golladay seeing as many targets as he did in DET (and his production should also be less than it was in 2019).

Sure, Golladay eventually got a decent payday as a FA . . . but most teams balked at giving him that amount of money. Just because he got a big contract doesn't necessarily make him worth it. We'll have to wait and see, but at this point I am guessing the Giants may wish they also passed on him.

His ADP is currently WR24.  I have seen him projected in the WR23-28 range. I would suggest his ADP represents that (I personally would probably pass at that price but would consider him if he fell another round or so). But obviously, IMO, I do not feel he is undervalued.

 
Golladay overrated and too many mouths to feed. Pass


I keep hearing this but every NFL team has multiple WRs and TEs on their roster. Who are these mouths that need to be fed on the NYG: One trick pony Slayton? The very average Sheppard? The underachieving Engram? The washed up Rudolph? The gadget guy Toney?

I'm just not seeing why we're worried so much about Golloday's targets.

 
Sure, Golladay eventually got a decent payday as a FA . . . but most teams balked at giving him that amount of money. Just because he got a big contract doesn't necessarily make him worth it. We'll have to wait and see, but at this point I am guessing the Giants may wish they also passed on him.


I think he had an issue getting interest because of his weird injury situation.  I think that the lack of interest was warranted because of that but if healthy he has elite skills for contested balls and is a big target downfield which is something Jones hasn't had.  Slayton can burn but isn't great on contested catches.  If Jones learns to trust Golladay on jump balls I don't see a reason Golladay can't be a top 15 WR provided he is healthy.   It's also likely that the Giants still suck and Jones doesn't let Golladay make plays or Golladay's injury is still an issue and he flames out.  He is a wide range of outcome guy.

 
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Will give a detailed response backed with stats…after work. 
Don't worry I've got you

Darnold across his career has a completion percentage under 60.  His highest qbr for a season was 45.9 in his rookie year and has been trending downward since.  He's thrown for 45 tds and 39 ints, but last year continued his downward progression by going 9tds to 11 ints.  He's never played a full 16 game season.  He is a bad quarterback who is getting worse.

Teddy has never had a single season as a starter or backup with a completion percentage under 60.  His qbr last year was 64.2 and his lowest for a season when he played more than mop up duty was 50.9.  He's never thrown for more ints in a season than tds (53/36 career).  He has played one full season and missed only one game last year. Teddy is a below average qb who has been playing at that level since returning from his early career injury.

Yeah, I was snarky earlier, but it's clear why when looking at the stats between the two.  Darnold is more than a Gase mess, he's just not good.  Bridgewater is a back up level qb, but at least he belongs.

 
wgoldsph said:
Don't worry I've got you

Darnold across his career has a completion percentage under 60.  His highest qbr for a season was 45.9 in his rookie year and has been trending downward since.  He's thrown for 45 tds and 39 ints, but last year continued his downward progression by going 9tds to 11 ints.  He's never played a full 16 game season.  He is a bad quarterback who is getting worse.

Teddy has never had a single season as a starter or backup with a completion percentage under 60.  His qbr last year was 64.2 and his lowest for a season when he played more than mop up duty was 50.9.  He's never thrown for more ints in a season than tds (53/36 career).  He has played one full season and missed only one game last year. Teddy is a below average qb who has been playing at that level since returning from his early career injury.

Yeah, I was snarky earlier, but it's clear why when looking at the stats between the two.  Darnold is more than a Gase mess, he's just not good.  Bridgewater is a back up level qb, but at least he belongs.
Also, and I may be wrong about this one, but Drew Lock's rookie season  (5 games, 64.1 completion percentage, 1020 yds, 7td/3int, 50.2 qbr) might just be better than any five game stretch in Darnold's career.  And Lock is a fringe backup at best.

The panthers must have been kicking themselves as Fields fell to them during the draft.

 
I am counting on him being Fitzpatrick. That is enough to make a HUGE difference compared to the dung we had last year. Why you think I'm comparing him to Brady is beyond my understanding.  :shrug:
Fitzmagic has a career 82.3 passer rating. His annual QBR numbers have been as low as the 30s up to the 60s prior to last year . . . where he had far and away a career high of 76.9. If you want the average Fitzpatrick season, then you will be hugely disappointed. 

 
Fitzmagic has a career 82.3 passer rating. His annual QBR numbers have been as low as the 30s up to the 60s prior to last year . . . where he had far and away a career high of 76.9. If you want the average Fitzpatrick season, then you will be hugely disappointed. 
Don't understand the love of Fitz.  I get he's developed this folk hero type of thing, but he's an extreme gunslinger who's just as likely to burn you as he is to tuck it and slam into seven defenders for a one yard td run.

 
I don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, but even still, Fitz is a HUGE upgrade to Haskins (AWFUL) and a one legged Alex Smith. He doesn't have to have a career year, if he's just average, it will help this team. And he has played better the last  few years, and is setup for success in this offense. 

 
I don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, but even still, Fitz is a HUGE upgrade to Haskins (AWFUL) and a one legged Alex Smith. He doesn't have to have a career year, if he's just average, it will help this team. And he has played better the last  few years, and is setup for success in this offense. 
Most qbs would be a step up from Haskins (who btw has a better career competion percentage than Sam Darnold), but nobody checks down like a one legged Alex Smith.

But... Can we be sure the three of them are better than the largely unknown yet playoff competent looking Taylor Heinicke?

 
TripItUp said:
What do you make of the 5th best fantasy WR in 2019 on just 116 targets?


He won't have Stafford feeding him the ball.....#1

#2, I've watched him here in Detroit. He's not elite. 

I just don't have a lot of confidence in him.

Oh, he also flat out quit on the Lions last year. If things go sour in NY, you could expect him to do the same. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
It’s not just the quality of QB, it’s the matching skill sets that is lost. KG is one of those long guys who wins 50/50 battles, he’s never good at getting separation. Can Danny throw a fastball into a tight window? 


There are a couple data points with Detroit WR having significant playing times with other teams, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones.  Both of those players looked better when Stafford was throwing to them.  I would be skeptical of expecting Golladay's numbers to improve.  

 

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