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- Thread starter shnikies
- Start date
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I expect Charles to be close over the 2nd half of the year.
Jackal King
Footballguy
Ryan Grant HAS to be on that list.
TitanicHornet
Footballguy
Shonn Greene.
shnikies
Footballguy
I think Grant is right on the fence. I have a strange feeling that Brandon Jackson + miscellaneous keeps him under 65%.
shnikies
Footballguy
I think Slaton is a bigger part of the offense than most think. Slaton + miscellaneous and I see Foster in the 50-55% range.
shnikies
Footballguy
Cadillac got barely over 50% last year. He's not getting younger and Graham and Huggins are there. I'd say the chance of him getting 65% of the carries is about .65%. Grant had 65% on the button last year and I could see him losing a few more carries this year.
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Jackal King
Footballguy
Grant had 281 carries last year...which was >75% of the total.Jackson had 37 carries last year.Right now...the Packers only have two RB's on the roster.
massraider
Footballguy
That's not the complete story. He was babied early in the year, had 22 carries the first three weeks. Graham and Huggins are there, but every team has backup RBs. Neither one is guaranteed to get a certain number of carries. The team isn't going to gameplan to make sure Earnest Graham gets carries. Huggins looked nice this summer, but there are plenty of August Hall of Famers that never went anywhere.I think Caddy is definitely the man there. Now, the OP said barring injury, but with Caddy you can't discount injury. But I think, when healthy, he gets at least 65% of the carries.
shnikies
Footballguy
I see 282 out of 438 = 64.3%I might be looking at the wrong page.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2009.htm
I think M.Moore and RR keep Mendenhall below that this year. Just not a believer in the guy.
shnikies
Footballguy
Yeah, I said team carries in the topic title.
Jackal King
Footballguy
Humpback was right. I was looking at RB carries only. Yep...just under 65% is the right number.Aside from my poor math skills...I still think Grant is a good bet for the list.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Moreno had 247 carries as a rookie. You can expect him to get more than that this year as a featured back. Yes, I know he can get injured just like any other running back in the NFL. I am sure this thread has the standard "barring injuries" disclaimer like all other predictions.
shnikies
Footballguy
There is the standard "barring injuries" disclaimer but not "barring injured". They might ease him back slowly, falling too far behind in carries to catch up.
mr roboto
Footballguy
OK, out on a limb...
Addai.
I know, I know, Donald Brown.
Brown has been having a hard time in pass protection/picking up blitzes.
If this doesn't change, I can't see him becoming more than a change-of-pace back. If he's in and teams know he can't really pass-protect, they can stack the box knowing it will likely be a run.
Addai.
I know, I know, Donald Brown.
Brown has been having a hard time in pass protection/picking up blitzes.
If this doesn't change, I can't see him becoming more than a change-of-pace back. If he's in and teams know he can't really pass-protect, they can stack the box knowing it will likely be a run.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Slaton will not see nearly the number of carries he did when healthy 2 years ago. And he's not fully healthy now. He has turf toe. And, you think a neck/back injury just goes away?He's a 'scat/3rd down/pass-catching' (fill in the cliche) type back. They will pound the rock with Foster and get Slaton in there for passing situations mainly.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I think what you meant was "injured on the first day of practice 36 days ago" which is plenty of time to heal before the first game. If he injured himself a week ago, I could see your point. He has been practicing for a week now.
shnikies
Footballguy
The Texans carried the ball 425 times last year and if they carry it the same amount this year Foster would need 276 carries and I don't see that happening.
shnikies
Footballguy
Didn't he say himself that he only felt 80% recently? Throw in the fact he hasn't seen full contact and you really think they'll give him 20 carries + receptions week 1?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
good list. I definitely think Grant is on it. As for Foster, he could be, but lots has to go right. Stay healthy, don't fumble, etc. Don't think Shonn Greene will - I'm convinced LT gets a bunch of carries.
shnikies
Footballguy
Plus, on volume alone, how could anyone project Greene to get 65% of a possible 600 team carries?
seatownfavorite
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Maybe not, but if you are trying to get together a list of lead dogs, he needs to be on it.
The Dynasty
Footballguy
Maybe it's just me but I don't think the 47 carries Rodgers got for the Packers should count towards what percentage Grant is going to get.
The Dynasty
Footballguy
I think percentage stats are misleading. Greene could get >65% and still get more carries over the year than backs who get <65% of their teams carries.
shnikies
Footballguy
Maybe but by doing total carries you don't have to differentiate a busted pass play turned into QB run from an intended QB run like a sneak or a naked bootleg. There are other flaws in making this list like the fact Shonn Greene probably won't get 65% of the Jets' carries but he'll almost certainly get more than Best who is on this list.Maybe it's just me but I don't think the 47 carries Rodgers got for the Packers should count towards what percentage Grant is going to get.
Nero
Footballguy
I'd remove Rice - didn't do last year. Benson - lot of carries so he still gets 300. Plenty carries left for B. ScottBest - it will be a more of a rbbc than people realize IMOI'd addGrant - did last year, no reason to think he won't do it againForte - even though he was horrible, he did it last year and I'd don't think Chester will be able to make any difference.Portis - because LJ is done.Spiller - because he will be Buffalo's offense.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Based on Team RB carries, with injuries blended into the mix, 65% is a high percentage. Here were the only backs that got 50% of his team's RB carries . . .
MJD 87.4
Steven Jackson 85.8
Chris Johnson 83.1
Matt Forte 78.9
Ryan Grant 75.4
ADP 74.5
Frank Gore 69.6
Cedric Benson 66.6
Joseph Addai 64.8
Fred Jackson 64.7
Rashard Mendenhall 64.2
Thomas Jones 62.2
Kevin Smith 61.6
Knowshon Moreno 61.0
Cadillac Williams 60.8
LT 57.9
Marion Barber 54.3
Brandon Jacobs 54.2
Chris Wells 53.7
Ricky Williams 53.0
LeSean McCoy 51.5
Julius Jones 50.7
Jamal Charles 50.4
MJD 87.4
Steven Jackson 85.8
Chris Johnson 83.1
Matt Forte 78.9
Ryan Grant 75.4
ADP 74.5
Frank Gore 69.6
Cedric Benson 66.6
Joseph Addai 64.8
Fred Jackson 64.7
Rashard Mendenhall 64.2
Thomas Jones 62.2
Kevin Smith 61.6
Knowshon Moreno 61.0
Cadillac Williams 60.8
LT 57.9
Marion Barber 54.3
Brandon Jacobs 54.2
Chris Wells 53.7
Ricky Williams 53.0
LeSean McCoy 51.5
Julius Jones 50.7
Jamal Charles 50.4
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nysportsfan
Footballguy
+1
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Why? According to Yudkin's stats, he got 2/3 of team carries. And he did that in essentially 12 uninjured games. Barring injury, he'll easily clear that number this year.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
They're especially misleading when you misuse the > and < signs.
footballnerd
Footballguy
the bigger number.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Darkhorse possibility is LeSean McCoy.
I strongly disagree. Barring injury Mendenhall will be the bell cow for the Steelers.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Nope. He did not say that. He said "80-some percent". Also, he said that on Aug 31. The Broncos play their first game on Sept 12th, which will give them plenty of extra time to give ice, massage and electrical stimulation. The trainers for the Broncos are certainly on top of it. Is it possible that he is limited in week 1? Sure. IMHO he should not play at all until he is 100%. No need to take chances with a hammy.
Traders2001
Footballguy
Forte will get the carries , i dont think Taylor will be more then a 3rd down back..
I strongly disagree with this. I think that LT2 will take a significant amount of carries and playing time away from Greene.
the spanker
Footballguy
No way. Bush is too great of a weapon.I think Pierre Thomas is going to sneak in to this category.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Only 5 guys in the league had over 75% of the RB carries last year. If you're saying that 75% of RB carries is basically the same as 65% of team carries, then you really think that the number of RBs to get that percentage will more than double from last year? I don't think so.And I'd take Best off the list and add Forte and Grant. That would be the list of guys I think would have a shot at having those numbers anyway.
