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There obviously can't be a 1:1 for percentages but I was just saying for the people that were using 65% for running back carries that the number should be higher like 75%. This is barring injury, obviously there are people on the list that will get injured and will miss games so comparing the number of running backs that did it last year to the amount on the list doesn't make sense. How many players would have done it last year if nobody got injured?
Who got injured and missed enough time to cost them those percentages last year? Gore and Fred Jackson I think would have been the only guys to make that percentage last year that didn't due to injury. And Jackson was helped by the Lynch suspension.65% of a team's carries is a REALLY high bar to set. The only guys that are going to do it are guys that:1) Have no other real talent at the position on the roster2) Are MUCH more talented than the guys behind them on the roster3) Are 3 down backs4) Are fairly young and can take the grind of a full season5) Have no durability questions surrounding them that would make a coach use them a bit lessHonestly, I think the list probably looks more like this:Michael TurnerSteven Jackson (and only because he plays through injury and there is NOBODY else on that roster to take carries)Rashard MendenhallRyan GrantChris JohnsonMatt ForteI'm even a bit iffy on Turner and CJ. I think it's a coin flip on whether Fisher will use CJ as much this year or if he'll try not to kill him. And I think there's decent enough talent behind Turner that he could see less touches.I think all the other RBs on your list either have enough talent behind them for teams to not risk overworking their bell cow, or have enough durability concerns for teams to give carries to other players anyway.
Can someone explain to me why in the word we would care about "team" carries, rather than RB carries?I assume the intent of this thread is to find feature backs. What does a quarterback's propensity to scramble on passing plays have to do with that?
Bingo, Hillis and Davis will get far fewer carries than most people think. Barring injury Harrison will get a TON of carries.Now, I don't think his YPC will be very high this year, but that's a different story
Best off, Spiller on? I like all of your suggestions but that one..Spiller currently contends with Fred Jackson and Lynch, 2 very capable backs.. Best's competition shredded his knee less than a year ago.. RB's typically have a hard time coming back immediately from those type of injuries.
total carries or situational carries would be more important than % of carries as well..
Well, your guess is wrong. I ran the numbers, and anyone is free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of these, but these are the only guys to have over 65% of their team's rushing carries last year:Steven Jackson 78.8%Chris Johnson 71.7%MJD 69.8%Matt Forte 69%Adrian Peterson 67%The only other guys even close were:Ryan Grant 64.3%Frank Gore 61.7%Joseph Addai 59.8%Cedric Benson 59.6%65% of a team's carries is a REALLY high number and only a very few guys in specific situations that manage to stay healthy are going to reach a number like that. With the exception of S-Jax, all of those guys stayed healthy. They all were clearly their team's best option without much of anything behind them on the depth chart. And they almost all are 3 down backs.
This was really meant to hold projected team carries as a constant. Offensive philosophies can change. I understand 65% of X could be less than 55% of Y. For this topic I wanted to just project which running backs will have the most carries relative to their own teams. I could see why people wouldn't care to know but I was just starting a harmless topic that people don't have to participate in if they think it has no #####. ##### = value, which is a dirty word
This made me laugh, thanks.
Which Jackson are you adding into the 6 since Steven was already included in the first 5?
Nope. LT will take a good chunk of his carries.
I included Fred Jackson because I thought he was limited in the middle of the season due to an injury but I was mistaken.
