50% per Rasmussen?A thread to celebrate Trump’s often overlooked successes.
Link?like Larry Sabato said
Hillary & Trump both finished 2 points higher than what Ras had in 2016.Probably more like 55%, like Larry Sabato said you always round up on Trump’s approval because of polling suppression.
There's no need to create a new thread every time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily hits 50%.A thread to celebrate Trump’s often overlooked successes.
Are you talking about the same Larry Sabato who predicted a Clinton landslide in 2016?Probably more like 55%, like Larry Sabato said you always round up on Trump’s approval because of polling suppression.
I actually think understanding the stark difference between reality and “this is the end of the world" 'tone taken on by most members of this forum is interesting and worthy of discussion.There's no need to create a new thread every time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily hits 50%.
Seriously, ask yourself how you and your likeminded posters would feel if squistion created a new thread every single time Trump's approval number dropped below 50%.
Rasmussen's polling method is designed to target conservatives.Probably more like 55%, like Larry Sabato said you always round up on Trump’s approval because of polling suppression.
Who else has more land lines than anyone else in 2019? Older white people.Rasmussen's polling method is designed to target conservatives.
You didn't create this thread to discuss differences. You created the thread to celebrate Trump. And you picked a very bizarre method of doing that, as if you think that a poll itself is an achievement.I actually think understanding the star difference between reality and “this is the end of the world tone” taken on by most members of this forum is interesting and worthy of discussion.There's no need to create a new thread every time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily hits 50%.
Seriously, ask yourself how you and your likeminded posters would feel if squistion created a new thread every single time Trump's approval number dropped below 50%.
Works for me.There's no need to create a new thread every time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily hits 50%.
Seriously, ask yourself how you and your likeminded posters would feel if squistion created a new thread every single time Trump's approval number dropped below 50%.
Rasmussen numbers are reality?I actually think understanding the star difference between reality and “this is the end of the world tone” taken on by most members of this forum is interesting and worthy of discussion.
I think they’re consistently skewed towards Republicans by about 10%. That’s what aggregate polling has shown for years. So personally I’m not miffed at all at a 50% approval rating. In fact I’m pleased.Are you claiming they are fake?
But they are reality because they aren't fake?I think they’re consistently skewed towards Republicans by about 10%. That’s what aggregate polling has shown for years. So personally I’m not miffed at all at a 50% approval rating. In fact I’m pleased.
Reality skewed by 10%.But they are reality because they aren't fake?
They exclusively use land lines for polling as has been pointed out in this forum dozens of times. People who use land lines tend to be older and more conservative which would favor Trump. So, once again, Rasmussen is an outlier.Are you claiming they are fake?
And the polls that cnn was promoting during the last election were not really close...I’m certainly not trusting those.They exclusively use land lines for polling as has been pointed out in this forum dozens of times. People who use land lines tend to be older and more conservative which would favor Trump. So, once again, Rasmussen in an outlier.
Still real polling numbersThey exclusively use land lines for polling as has been pointed out in this forum dozens of times. People who use land lines tend to be older and more conservative which would favor Trump. So, once again, Rasmussen is an outlier.
Weren't CNN's poll numbers for the popular vote and not the electoral college? If so, they were spot on.And the polls that cnn was promoting during the last election were not really close...I’m certainly not trusting those.
Yes, real polling numbers exclusively using land lines which means the responses will be more old white people who tend to be conservative.Still real polling numbers
You sure about that?And the polls that cnn was promoting during the last election were not really close...I’m certainly not trusting those.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.htmlWeren't CNN's poll numbers for the popular vote and not the electoral college? If so, they were spot on.
And as I recall most polls that showed Hillary winning were within the margin of error (which is why Nate Silver was skeptical of Hillary victory up to election eve).
Weren’t you the guy starting a thread about emotion overweighing logic?A thread to celebrate Trump’s often overlooked successes.
Yes and how many of those reflected what ended up the actual popular vote and not the electoral college?
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/315145-one-last-look-2016-polls-actually-got-a-lot-right?amp
Like you?Who else has more land lines than anyone else in 2019? Older white people.
Of course it isn't, it is another Trump cheerleading piece based on one outlier poll.https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/315145-one-last-look-2016-polls-actually-got-a-lot-right?amp
And Rasmussen sucks...its a bad poll. Its not a great representative and guess what, it also isn't like the polling in 2016. These are approval polls that go back many many years and the aggregate continues to show Rasmussen to be a right wing outlier. Its been discussed...it didn't need its own thread. And no independent would keep pushing it, just as no independent would have copy ans pasted a list of accomplishments from Hannity. This thread isnt about any actual discussion.
LolOf course it isn't, it is another Trump cheerleading piece based on one outlier poll.
I think I should take Scooter's suggestion and start a thread every time there is a new poll showing Trump's approval rating below 45%. It would keep me busy.
Do you think you just scored a point or something?Like you?Who else has more land lines than anyone else in 2019? Older white people.
>>The national polls weren't that off — they did predict more people would vote for Clinton. That's what happened.<<
I have used a cell phone for my work, business and personal calls since the late 90s.Like you?
Please don't.I think I should take Scooter's suggestion and start a thread every time there is a new poll showing Trump's approval rating below 45%. It would keep me busy.
>>Trump voters weren’t responding to telephone surveys because they had lower levels of civic engagement.<<
Always good to hear from a centrist Democrat from WisconsinNo shock
record unemployment
stock market at all time high
Americans spending at a good clip
smoking hot housing market
fed to cut interest rates, more fuel for the fire
trade war over with Mexico
if and a big if, we get deal with China, everyone wins big time
people vote with their pocket books
are you better off now then 2 years ago, I am big time
>>Because many traditional likely-voter models incorporate measures of enthusiasm into their calculus, 2016’s distinctly unenthused electorate – at least on the Democratic side – may have also wreaked some havoc with this aspect of measurement.<<https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
Ok...then maybe others do as well. You should not judge or generalize as who uses landlines. Older black, latino, asian and whites may all use landlines. We do not know.I have used a cell phone for my work, business and personal calls since the late 90s.
Dude, I don't want to spend the time looking for links, but landlines are used more by older white people and less by younger folks and minorities (many of which are poor and don't have the money to pay the monthly bill for a landline).Ok...then maybe others do as well. You should not judge or generalize as who uses landlines. Older black, latino, asian and whites may all use landlines. We do not know.
I agree and you don`t have to. Just don`t generalize like it is fact as we have no idea who was polled.Dude, I don't want to spend the time looking for links, but landlines are used more by older white people and less by younger folks and minorities (many of which are poor and don't have the money to pay the monthly bill for a landline).
I thought you were the links master.Dude, I don't want to spend the time looking for links, but landlines are used more by older white people and less by younger folks and minorities (many of which are poor and don't have the money to pay the monthly bill for a landline).
Yeah thats not true at all.Let’s all be honest. Polling tells you what you want to hear. So we can all dismiss it and stop debating it.
Come on, man.Ok...then maybe others do as well. You should not judge or generalize as who uses landlines. Older black, latino, asian and whites may all use landlines. We do not know.I have used a cell phone for my work, business and personal calls since the late 90s.