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Trump tax reform! Latest CBO update shows increase in deficit projections of 1T (2 Viewers)

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

The BEA released country by country data on "reinvested" earnings today. So we know that U.S. firms brought around $300b back from the world's main corporate tax havens in 2018. That's less than expected/ only a fraction of the funds accumulated in these jurisdictions since 05

 
Slapdash said:
Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

The BEA released country by country data on "reinvested" earnings today. So we know that U.S. firms brought around $300b back from the world's main corporate tax havens in 2018. That's less than expected/ only a fraction of the funds accumulated in these jurisdictions since 05
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Benefits from the corporate tax cuts as I undestand have largely taken the form of dividends as well. A third of which was paid to foreign investors. 

 
Jackstraw said:
Benefits from the corporate tax cuts as I undestand have largely taken the form of dividends as well. A third of which was paid to foreign investors. 
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The Investor Class wins again!  They are on a real roll these last few decades.  Can't say the same for the working man.  Guess I'll have to blame the immigrants for stealing my jerb.

 
Don't Noonan said:
lower taxes for majority of Americans, lower taxes for corporations leading to higher wages and lower unemployment rate for Americans, and a fairer tax system has been implemented.
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You are dead on, our small business saved a ton in taxes compared to previous year and just hired a new employee last month based on this. We aren’t a large corporation but it made a significant difference for us. 

Complainers gonna complain though, same as it always is in here. 

 
GoBirds said:
You are dead on, our small business saved a ton in taxes compared to previous year and just hired a new employee last month based on this. We aren’t a large corporation but it made a significant difference for us. 

Complainers gonna complain though, same as it always is in here. 
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Great to see some trickle down but the biggest benefactor has been corporations and most of that went to stock buybacks which benefit the rich.  It also came at a tremendous cost that will be difficult if not impossible to repay even in this economy. 

Adding the fact that the tax benefits to individuals are temporary and while the corporate rates do not there are some good reasons to view the "tax reform" with skepticism.

 
Godsbrother said:
Great to see some trickle down but the biggest benefactor has been corporations and most of that went to stock buybacks which benefit the rich.  It also came at a tremendous cost that will be difficult if not impossible to repay even in this economy. 

Adding the fact that the tax benefits to individuals are temporary and while the corporate rates do not there are some good reasons to view the "tax reform" with skepticism.
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That's not how it works in here.  We go with the anecdotes as the rule rather than vice versa.  And if your anecdote doesn't fit the preconceived narrative, you're a liar.

 
The Commish said:
That's not how it works in here.  We go with the anecdotes as the rule rather than vice versa.  And if your anecdote doesn't fit the preconceived narrative, you're a liar.
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Oh,and we've been down this road before with these two guys, so it's mostly posting by rote now ("to pwn the libs"?). nothing news ever emerges

 
2.1% Q2 GDP.

Wow, surely the best economy in the history of the world!  When's the press conference like the one he had the only time GDP was actually > 4%.  You know, like he promised?

 
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James Daulton said:
2.1% Q2 GDP.

Wow, surely the best economy in the history of the world!  When's the press conference like the one he had the only time GDP was actually > 4%.  You know, like he promised?
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Not only that, but 2018 GDP just got revised downward to +2.5%.

Since 1992, the average yearly GDP was +2.58%, including the year of the great recession from the housing collapse that Obama inherited.

Trump's bluster about the greatest economy ever is like a 95 OPS+ hitter saying that he's better than Mike Trout.

 
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Mile High said:
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

11m

Q2 GDP Up 2.1% Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck. Almost no inflation. USA is set to Zoom!
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lmfao this guy literally has zero shame.  A 2.5% Fed rate is an anchor?  It's practically the lowest in history.

Man oh man his followers will swallow anything he says.  It's so bizarre. 

 
Oops, data:

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

The revised GDP data further erodes the already weak argument that regulatory/tax changes have noticeably boosted investment. Investment growth did pick up starting in 2017 (left) but excluding oil/gas sector which is driven by oil price changes (right) investment growth slowed.

 
Mile High said:
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

11m

Q2 GDP Up 2.1% Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck. Almost no inflation. USA is set to Zoom!
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Also slowed by the democrats picking up seats in the house last fall, of course.  And the witch hunt.

 
Slapdash said:
Oops, data:

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

The revised GDP data further erodes the already weak argument that regulatory/tax changes have noticeably boosted investment. Investment growth did pick up starting in 2017 (left) but excluding oil/gas sector which is driven by oil price changes (right) investment growth slowed.
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And corp spending was down.

Because those who got the brunt of the benefit of tax changes...pocketed the money or bought back stock...nothing trickled down.  Shocking...I know.

 
sho nuff said:
And corp spending was down.

Because those who got the brunt of the benefit of tax changes...pocketed the money or bought back stock...nothing trickled down.  Shocking...I know.
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But that can't be right, Trump supporters have assured me the tax cuts for the rich helped everyone and this is the greatest economy in the history of the universe. 

 
Godsbrother said:
Great to see some trickle down but the biggest benefactor has been corporations and most of that went to stock buybacks which benefit the rich.  It also came at a tremendous cost that will be difficult if not impossible to repay even in this economy. 

Adding the fact that the tax benefits to individuals are temporary and while the corporate rates do not there are some good reasons to view the "tax reform" with skepticism.
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THIS.  

And oh yeah a ton of people on the coasted got screwed. And oh yeah that while debt thing....

 
So what did this tax cut do for us? Same growth as under Obama, and way more deficit and debt. And it's Trump's main achievement right? What was the point?

 
timschochet said:
So what did this tax cut do for us? Same growth as under Obama, and way more deficit and debt. And it's Trump's main achievement right? What was the point?
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Not the same growth, Obama had money being printed at record rates and Rates being artificially kept at 0% for record amounts of time. Can't really compare as no President in history was given the type of assistance from the Fed Obuma did.  Nice try though, enjoy your weekend. 

 
GoBirds said:
Not the same growth, Obama had money being printed at record rates and Rates being artificially kept at 0% for record amounts of time. Can't really compare as no President in history was given the type of assistance from the Fed Obuma did.  Nice try though, enjoy your weekend. 
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Nice try? I think you have the wrong guy. One of the very few things I have praised President Trump for has been the state of the economy. I started a thread giving him credit for it. You posted in that thread, and even praised me for it, have you forgotten?

I have no argument to make. I had a question: what did the tax cut achieve? Criticizing Obama is not an answer to that question. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Short term pain on trade deal hurts GDP but it will be a huge win once done.  HTH
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You're talking about the China deal? I sure hope so. What makes you think it will be done anytime soon? We've been promised this for several months. I thought it would be done last month.

 
timschochet said:
You're talking about the China deal? I sure hope so. What makes you think it will be done anytime soon? We've been promised this for several months. I thought it would be done last month.
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Yes.  I don't know that it will be done soon but I think very good chance by year end.  Trump knows that a deal will help him in election.

 
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