Turner and Tomlinson (1 Viewer)

[DLeo]

i would wait and see if i could get him in the last round. if someone else drafts him before that they will just be hoping LT gets hurt.

whatever yuo do..do not do the above as he willbe long gone. IMO you have it right take him at the 9.01 turn. He is a must have if you get LT just in case somehting happens and its jusst the smart thing to do to get him.

so someone will draft turner who is not a LT owner and waste a roster spot when they could of drafted a player that could help their team as a starter, good strategy

Of course they will! You never seen an owner burn the LT owner in drafts..or the Portis owner this year? I have been in well over 300 mocks or survivors this eyar and Turner seldomly makes it to round 11-12. Having Turner on your bench this year is a big time chip to have esp if your in a trade league. One can get a nice #2 WR or better in a package deal with the LT owner maybe. Either way Turner is nice to hav on your roster as he will be a decent flex starter a few times this year and a league winner had LT go down or not play weeks 15 and or 16,17.

 

[bcr8f]

I don't believe in handcuffs unless it's someone with an injury history(Priest) with a stud(LJ) right behind him.

Didn't draft Michael Bennett for this reason.

 

[bcr8f]

i would wait and see if i could get him in the last round. if someone else drafts him before that they will just be hoping LT gets hurt.

whatever yuo do..do not do the above as he willbe long gone. IMO you have it right take him at the 9.01 turn. He is a must have if you get LT just in case somehting happens and its jusst the smart thing to do to get him.

so someone will draft turner who is not a LT owner and waste a roster spot when they could of drafted a player that could help their team as a starter, good strategy

If noone picked these guys their owners could just wait until the 18th round. No thanks. Have to keep them honest.

 

[Willowdoc]

I'm torn on this question. On one hand, Turner is bar none the best backup in the league. No backup has a better situation and more talent to capitalize on becoming the starter if the guy ahead of him went down with a catastrophic injury.On the other hand, LT is tough as nails. The groin and rib injuries that slowed him in 2004 and 2005 would have sidelined most backs. So you are basically hedging against LT suffering a major injury. I have no idea how to gauge the chances of that, but its gotta be <10%. I guess that when you look at the players available at 8.12, and the harsh reality that a serious injury to LT would probably end your title hopes if you didnt have Turner (unless you NAILED the rest of the draft), I'd probably do the safe, but unexciting thing and take Turner at the 8/9 turn.

Really? you'd rather have Micheal Turner as the unquestioned starter in San Diego than Maurice Jones Drew as the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville or Ladell Betts as th unquestioned starter in Washington? or Reggie Bush in New Orleans? Two of these guys are consistently being drafted in the top 15 overall and yet they are backups. MT might be the best handcuff, but I think I could still argue Betts here. Doesn't change the fact that if I somehow get LT with the second pick I'll be taking MT at the end of the 8th round.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

You should draft Turner in the same spot regardless of whether or not you have LT already on your team or not. You should draft Turner when he provides more value to you than any other players available, and that point should be the same regardless of if you have LT or not.

In my opinion, which players you already have on your roster can substantially affect the value to your team of other players you're considering drafting.To take an obvious example, if you draft Peyton Manning in the second round, that drops the value to your team of taking Carson Palmer in the third (assuming you start one QB). The value of any player you draft is roughly proportional to both the value he'll give you when he starts, and the chance that he'll start for you. Palmer has low value once you've drafted Manning because there's not much of a chance he'll start for you.

With Turner, there's not much of a chance he'll start for your team, but you're drafting him in the eight or ninth round. There's not much of a chance any player at a key position you draft there will start for you. But if Tomlinson gets hurt, Turner will both (a) score lots of fantasy points, and (b) fill a major team need for you. Part (b) is why Turner is more valuable to a Tomlinson-owner than to a non-Tomlinson-owner.

Or, as I put it here:

Handcuffing refers to the practice of drafting two players at the same position from the same NFL team. Suppose I draft Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew in the second round. I might then "handcuff" Jacksonville Jaguars RB Fred Taylor to Jones-Drew by picking Taylor in the sixth round. Since Jones-Drew's playing time will be negatively correlated with Taylor's playing time, and I already have Jones-Drew on my team, Taylor will be worth more to me than his VBD value would indicate.

Here's why. Fred Taylor has direct value to my fantasy team when he starts for my fantasy team (rather than when he is on the bench). When is Taylor likely to start for my fantasy team? When both of the following occur: (a) one of my starting RBs is injured or is performing poorly, and (b) Taylor starts playing a lot for the Jaguars.

Situations (a) and (b) are more likely to coincide for me if I own Jones-Drew than if I do not own Jones-Drew. (Do you see why?) Therefore, Taylor is more likely to have value for me if I own Jones-Drew than if I do not own Jones-Drew.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm torn on this question. On one hand, Turner is bar none the best backup in the league. No backup has a better situation and more talent to capitalize on becoming the starter if the guy ahead of him went down with a catastrophic injury.On the other hand, LT is tough as nails. The groin and rib injuries that slowed him in 2004 and 2005 would have sidelined most backs. So you are basically hedging against LT suffering a major injury. I have no idea how to gauge the chances of that, but its gotta be <10%. I guess that when you look at the players available at 8.12, and the harsh reality that a serious injury to LT would probably end your title hopes if you didnt have Turner (unless you NAILED the rest of the draft), I'd probably do the safe, but unexciting thing and take Turner at the 8/9 turn.

Really? you'd rather have Micheal Turner as the unquestioned starter in San Diego than Maurice Jones Drew as the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville or Ladell Betts as th unquestioned starter in Washington? or Reggie Bush in New Orleans?

Personally, yes, I would.

 

[BigOlBar]

This is a very tough one. I am in the High Stakes WCOFF League (flying out to Atlantic City) with the 1st Pick (that is NOT the tough part)

Since we start QB/2RB/3WR/Flex/TE/D/K with 20 roster positions, we are still filling our skilled starting positions at the 8/9 draft slot. Makes it very hard to take Turner there and it is very risky that he lasts until 10.12.

I guess the basic premise is, would you rather have Turner vs a quality backup like D Foster or F Taylor? Or a WR starter like G Jennings or DJ Jackett? I am still undecided...

 

[jurrassic]

How soon would you take Turner as a handcuff in a keeper league? The guy is a free agent next year so he has value. Do I need to take him in the 6th or can I wait until pick 7.12?

 

[Christo]

How soon would you take Turner as a handcuff in a keeper league? The guy is a free agent next year so he has value. Do I need to take him in the 6th or can I wait until pick 7.12?

I bet he won't be there in the sixth. I did a draft when McGahee and Larry Johnson were rookies and McGahee was taken in the 4th and Johnson was taken in the 5th. Someone is going to take a flyer thinking Turner's going to be their RB1 starting next year.