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Two Hours of Live Audible Tonight 8/19 10 pm Eastern (1 Viewer)

Please ask Matt if he plans on a 2010 follow up to the article he wrote in 2009 which identified Breakout Wide Receivers. He identified them as receivers between their second and fifth season who in the prior year had at least 41 receptions, 400 yards, and two scores.

This is an excellent article and I'd like to know who he is considering this year based on that criteria. Some that come to mind are Hester, Knox, Aromashodu of the Bears. I'd be interested in knowing his thoughts on such receivers as my drafts are coming up soon.
Link for 2010 version

Since writing this, I like the Bears WRs even more (mostly Knox and Aromashodu)

 
I got a question for Matt Waldman: Why did you go out of your way to convince me that Jonathan Dwyer is a good football prospect?
Did you read my NY times piece? I don't think it was a very endearing analysis...
I was specifically referring to it. And I hope you know I'm kidding. I did draft him based on your thoughts that he could make it in the NFL but I always blame only myself for my picks.
LOL - no worries :)I still think he has a chance if he stops fooling around...
 
I'm a Longtime listener. Thanks for the continued exceptional content.

10 team standard scoring redraft except for 6pt TD passes. 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, TE. 1RB/WR Flex. I've got SJax and Knowshon already. Does it make any sense to draft a 3rd RB before a second starting wideout? We're talking JStewart/LeSean vs SSmith (either)/OchoNamo/Boldin. What if BWells drops to the mid-5th ?

Thanks,

Drew

 
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Incredible stuff guys. Incredible.

Could you rank the guys below real quick and mention why you rank them that way? In dynasty but looking at production for this season only. Guys like:

Knox

Santana Moss

Floyd

Gaffney / Royal

Would you start Crabtree over this mötley crüe?

Thanks!

 
Why do people insist on claiming that QB value doesn't increase in leagues with 6pt passing td, points for completions, or point per 20yrd passing? The way I see it, as QBs score more points there will be more points separating each QB, and it will be harder to make up those points with other players. In a 4pt league the difference between throwing 20 and 25 tds is 20 points, while in a 6pt per td league the difference is 30 points.I feel a lot of people are confused about this. I also want to thank you for answering my questions. Also, my user name is 'em-rip' :thumbdown:
I dont think it really increases the spread that much. If a top tier QB throws 8 more TDs than a second tier QB, thats only a point a week difference from the 4 pt per pass TD league, not enough to change my strategy greatly. I do think things like 300 yard game and long distance TDs bonus do increase the spread in a way that makes a difference more than 6 pts per pass TD. Also leagues with a QB flex + 6 pts per pass TD really enhance QB value.
 
go for jugular and trust your later picks/WW pickups to be your depth

Geekjock said:
Gents,Longtime listener, love the show. Love the “Always Sunny” references too.Question for you on auction strategy. Here’s the league settings breakdown:10 Teams 19 Man SquadsPPR6pts per passing TD, 7pts per rush/rec TD, 5 point bonuses at 100 yds rush or rec, or 300 yds passing, .05pts/passing yard, .1pts/ru/re yard2 Keepers – 15% increased value from prior year’s auction costStarters of: 1QB – 2RB – 3WR – 1TE – 1 Flex (RB-WR-TE) – K and DSTI have keepers of, get this, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. No, this isn’t a league of extraordinary idiots either. My question boils down to, do I go for the throat and target 3-4 outright studs and then switch to $1 value picks for the rest, or do I hit 2 studs and get a few more value picks to mix in with the $1-2 filler?My priorities are to get a stud WR1, stud TE1 and from there I could either target a stud WR2 and a QB1, or try to hang back and let my wonderfully acquired “Audible Live” knowledge take over and get the undervalued guys. Options at WR1 look like Cal Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Reggie Wayne, though I’m partial to the first two. I’m going to be targeting Gates at TE1 and am somewhat certain I can get him. The likely outcomes may look like, based on my league’s auction history, the following:Go for the throat:QB – Romo, HenneRB – Peterson, C. Johnson, D. Brown, McGahee, Ringer, ChoiceWR – Cal Johnson, B. Marshall, Gaffney, Hester, Cotchery, M. Williams (TBB)TE – Gates, CarlsonBlended studs/value:QB – Eli, HenneRB – Peterson, C. Johnson, J. Best, D. Brown, Gerhart, RingerWR – Cal Johnson, H. Nicks, P. Harvin (or maybe Crabtree), D. Bryant, Knox, GaffneyTE – Gates, CarlsonThe differences when framed in a trade view would be:Romo, McGahee, Choice, Marshall, Hester, Cotchery, WilliamsOr Eli, J. Best, Gerhart, Nicks, Harvin, Bryant, KnoxThanks for the input. Keep up the great work!
 
Its really hard to know if coaches are just trying out things to see if they work well enough to even include in the playbook/game plan, or if they are really trying out the primary mode of attack. I wouldnt read too much into it.

Hey guys,Love the audible. I download anything from Footballguys religiously on iTunes, and anticipate an episode everyday.I know that the preseason is a snooze-fest by the time 4th quarter comes around (if not sooner). Any stats put up by those players can largely be ignored. BUT! I do wonder about play calling. I see that the Head coaches are still heavily involved in the play calling during the snooze-fest.Does play calling in the pre-season transfer over to regular season? Because the NYG are calling so much pass plays, despite Tom Coughlin's comment about a more balanced attack. This could be especially important for me in the fantasy season whether to draft Jacobs or not
 
There has been a lot of talk about players you guys like and are targeting, but what about guys that you are avoiding like a plague?
I dont know about avoiding like the plague, but you arent likely to see Brees/Rodgers/Peyton on my teams, nor Reggie Wayne, PThomas, JStewart among early round guys.
 
gotta go RB. WR is deep, youll be fine.

First time Shark Pool poster!

I have the 3rd overall pick in a 12-team, modified “3RR”-style redraft league. We start 2 RBs, 3 WRs & 1 Flex. Standard PPR scoring format.

With that 3rd overall selection, would you go MJD or Rice? Six of one, half-dozen of the other I guess huh? Or, since this is a PPR format and we can start up to 4 WRs, would it be too far a reach to go with Andre Johnson? I know this sounds insane, but since I will not select again until #22 overall in the 2nd & #34 overall in the 3rd, I am concerned that my WRs will not be competitive enough in this format if I go with an RB in the first.

On the other hand, if I go AJ in the first, I could either nab a solid ppr-RB like Charles in the 2nd or pair AJ with a solid #2 WR in the 2nd then assemble a plethora of RBs in the early mid-rounds. You know…the ole “throw ##### against the wall and see what sticks” method!

Any insight on how you would build the foundation of my team is greatly appreciated!
 
In a PPR yardage bonus league, I won last year, but this means I have the 14th pick every round (non-snake). With All Day, Frank Gore, and Roddy White as keepers, would you target a top tier QB or TE first over a 3rd running back or 2nd WR? We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR/TE flex.Thanksdenverswope
2nd WR - maybe Nicks
 
Floyd WR3/Flex (like better in nonPPR) Royal Flex/WR4 (like better in PPR)

Hey guys thanks for the help last week, it's appreciated and I love the show!In a PPR what do you see coming (numbers wise) from Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal. I had Royal last year and was burned by him (like everyone else lol) but think the talent is there to be a nice PPR sleeper. I also had V-Jax last year and think he too can produce as SD's top WR. Thoughts?Thanks again!**edit- Welker started so I pulled my question about him hitting the PUP**
 
Hey guys, great job with the show. I read as much as I can and listen to multiple podcasts. The one thing that I hear over and over is. "he's worth a flyer in deeper leagues" or the opposite end of the spectrum is "Standard Leagues" Since there are so many different variations of leagues available can you clarify what constitutes a "deep" league. Thanks
more than 20 roster spots or more than 12 teams.
 
Hey guys, love the shooooooow. 10 team, 18 man roster, ppr, start rb,rb,flex,wr,wr, redraft, $200 auction.My question is about being flexible during an auction draft. I've been doing dynasty auctions for about 5 years now and feel it's the ONLY way to draft in fantasy football. Last year I introduced it to my redraft league and everyone loved it. But I got caught off guard a bit by the studs being paid WAY more than what the dominator (my weapon of choice for drafting) said they should go for. So my question is this, do you "if you can't beat 'em join 'em" and spend more than recommended for the studs or do you hang back while the top 5 at each position go off the board and kill it during the 2nd and 3rd teir of player callups? Is it realistic to expect to win if you've got a bunch of second teir $10-$15 guys compared to some $40-$50 studs??Thanks and keep on keepin on. Cory in PR
Hang back and kill it later. You can trade your breakout cheapo guys for a stud or two later.
 
Which non 1st round rookie offensive linemen have won starting jobs if any? Any info on how Bruce Campbell is doing at guard?
:goodposting: Honestly, Im not quite up to speed on the OL situations around the league to answer this right now, will post as I learn more.
 
In a 16 team non-ppr that counts punt and kick return yards (1/10 and 1/20 yds) are there any fantasy backup RBs that become considerations as starters in this format (e.g. The Hyphen in Arizona)?Thanks,Mr D
maybe not starters, but LSH could have value, as could deji karim
 
id say less by 10-20%

Derrick Mason & Austin Collie ..... in my "main league" i have these 2 as my WR3 & WR5 (non-ppr) same stats as last year for these guys ?less than last year ? (due to Boldin & Gonzalez)better than last year ? (Flacco makes the "jump" & Boldin takes the #1 CB --- 1 more year in the system, sure hands, & Manning believes in the kid)
 
only for weather (which has ruined Brady during the playoffs here and there, including in the record season of 07). three outdoor northeast games in december this year for him.

Hey Guys, another Audible Addict here.

My question pertains to my mixed keeper league. I have Brady as my QB keeper (We keep a starting lineup basically). Besides the fact that I feel I can no longer trust him if my team gets to the playoffs, I'm concerned about when the time to find his replacement is. How do you decide it is time to move on from your stud QB? OK, I know you should always be looking to get that next better piece to the puzzle, but it is Brady.

I'm confident that he can help get my team to the playoffs, but I don't think he can help win me a championship.

I've thought about benching him in the playoffs (assuming I get there) and rolling with Alex Smith or Josh Freeman (love their playoff schedules) am I crazy?

Very QB friendly scoring league.
 
welker back, moss primed for big year, lots of young weapons developing. I like him as #5 QB this year. not quite the ceiling of the top 4.

Guys,Great show as usual! I caught the Conan reference last week.. nice touch. It's always inspiring! :goodposting:Question regarding Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack in general. Do you see some upside here, with the possibility of both Welker and Edelman working out of the slot? I read an article on ESPN that alluded to this, and I was wondering what you thought about it. Brady is one of the two top QBs left in my Auction Keeper league, and I am tempted to try and steal him while his value is low.Thanks in advance!
 
I have snagged WR Harry Douglas in the last round in 33 of 41 of my PPR leagues. WHat role could he have in ATL this season? Can he win the WR#2 job over Michael Jenkins outright? If he does, I'm winning at least 2 dozen league championships this year.
Welker-lite could be his role. Wont start on the outside, pure slot receiver.
 
Can we got some clarity as to the current situation with the New England wideouts. People are saying Edelman, others are saying Tate, others Price for that third spot. How is Welker really looking and if he is healthy are any of these other guys worth rostering in redraft or dynasty.
Its Tate, but all 3 have value in dynasty leagues.
 
get that #1 WR

I'm a Longtime listener. Thanks for the continued exceptional content.10 team standard scoring redraft except for 6pt TD passes. 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, TE. 1RB/WR Flex. I've got SJax and Knowshon already. Does it make any sense to draft a 3rd RB before a second starting wideout? We're talking JStewart/LeSean vs SSmith (either)/OchoNamo/Boldin. What if BWells drops to the mid-5th ?Thanks, Drew
 
yes on Crabtree over that groupKnox first 90 catch upsideMoss could return to glory with McNabbthen Floyd big play upsideDen guys lastjust as you listed em

Incredible stuff guys. Incredible. Could you rank the guys below real quick and mention why you rank them that way? In dynasty but looking at production for this season only. Guys like:KnoxSantana MossFloydGaffney / RoyalWould you start Crabtree over this mötley crüe?Thanks!
 
There has been a lot of talk about players you guys like and are targeting, but what about guys that you are avoiding like a plague?
I dont know about avoiding like the plague, but you arent likely to see Brees/Rodgers/Peyton on my teams, nor Reggie Wayne, PThomas, JStewart among early round guys.
Didn't listen yet, will itunes it and listen tomorrow. But saw this comment. Two questions Sigmund (12 team redraft, non-ppr)...1) any chance you can expand on why you don't like Wayne, Thomas, and JStew? 2) if you draft in the 1 or 2 slot, and a Peyton makes it to you at the 2/3 turn, would you consider him? Seems like a huge dropoff in QBs will occur before it snakes back to you at 4/5. Thx!
 
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Which non 1st round rookie offensive linemen have won starting jobs if any? Any info on how Bruce Campbell is doing at guard?
Sounds like both Iupati and Davis are going to start for San Fran. Pouncey should also start for the Steelers and has been quite impressive in camp. Reports on Trent Williams say he's been a little rough, but should start for the Redskins early if not week one. Campbell has actually been impressing according to some reports from Jerry McDaniels from ANG Newspapers. He may not harness those spectacular physical skills enough to play at tackle, but sliding him inside will help cover up some of his deficiencies.
 
Guys,Great show as usual! I caught the Conan reference last week.. nice touch. It's always inspiring! :thumbup:Question regarding Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack in general. Do you see some upside here, with the possibility of both Welker and Edelman working out of the slot? I read an article on ESPN that alluded to this, and I was wondering what you thought about it. Brady is one of the two top QBs left in my Auction Keeper league, and I am tempted to try and steal him while his value is low.Thanks in advance!
I think Brady can be as good as ever regardless of Welker's health/productivity. Edelman, Tate, and Hernandez are capable of picking up the slack as a trio if Welker turns out to be a year away.
 
Waldman vs. Bloom...mano a mano.Jahvid Best or C.J. Spiller in a PPR Dynasty League. Go!!
For me, it's still clearly Best - He has the starting job and it didn't come by default due to a summer injury. What separates Best and Spiller in my opinion is Best's patience between the tackles. Where there are times that Spiller (and he admitted this much about his play last week) can be tentative with his decisions, which I think stems from him being over reliant on his vast athleticism, Best is willing to go with the play design and get the tough 3-4 yards that keeps the offense on schedule and in a decent situation for the team's game plan. Spiller definitely can improve in this area, and improve quickly enough to become a terrific player in the NFL, but I'm not convince he's done so. Both are good receivers and I would get the slight edge to Spiller here. Overall, Spiller reminds me of Reggie Bush when he entered the league. Best reminds me of what we thought Bush could become.
 
Can we got some clarity as to the current situation with the New England wideouts. People are saying Edelman, others are saying Tate, others Price for that third spot. How is Welker really looking and if he is healthy are any of these other guys worth rostering in redraft or dynasty.
Its Tate, but all 3 have value in dynasty leagues.
I'm really starting to think it might be Hernandez.
 
How good of a prospect is Mark Ingram for 2011? Where would he have gone in this draft?
Although I would say Trent Richardson, Ingram's backup, has even more potential (which is scary), I think Ingram is a fine NFL prospect and there would be some NFL teams that would have preferred him over Ryan Mathews in this draft. I actually think teams that had Mathews No.1 on its boards with Ingram in this draft would have been the minority. I'm not certain I agree with that notion, but he hits all the check marks I think personnel directors like: big-time school, big-time production, championship team, prerequisite size, etc. Although I'm saying these evaluators might have been wrong about putting Ingram over Mathews with ease, it doesn't mean I wouldn't rate him as one of the three best backs in the 2010 draft if he came out. If you're in a dynasty league that allows you to draft a college player that hasn't declared for the draft I would put Ingram at the top of the list alongside A.J. Green and above Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas .
 
Question for Matt, who is the best young running back that is not a starter or committee guy in the NFL. Meaning who are the real sleepers that have the talent to win fantasy leagues if the stars align.
RBs Under the Radar...(in a rough order)1. Javon Ringer - he's a smart enough runner to do a lot of damage behind the Titans line. A lot like Chester Taylor. 2. Rashad Jennings - I liked what I saw (a lot) of Jennings in limited time last year. If MJD gets hurt, I think Jennings can be a fantasy starter. He has everything you need to be a solid fantasy starter: hands, shiftiness, power, burst, some long speed. I think he has more ability than Ringer, but not the best situation.3. Anthony Dixon - He's obviously still not adjusting to the finer points of the game or Westbrook wouldn't be in town, but he has great instincts and all-around skills that must need to be refined. He might hurt the team with conceptual mistakes if forced into the lineup, but he'll produce with the ball in his hands.4. Tyrell Sutton - This kid can play. He always showed he could run tough between the tackles. His legs rarely go dead after contact, he catches the ball well, and he has some burst. I believe he has endeared himself to the Panthers despite working in the shadows of the Carolina duo Williams/Stewart. If one of these backs is allowed to pursue the open market in the next year or two, Sutton could be the reason. He'll never be a superstar, but he could carry the load if needed and get you 4-4.5 ypc behind this o-line.5. Jalen Parmele - He's a smart, shifty, player with some power and versatility. If McGahee gets traded it's because of him (and undrafted rookie Curtis Steele who is probably another season or two away from making this list, but he has the skills). OthersKareem Huggins - I haven't seen him play, but when you see a quote from the team's coordinator that says to the effect, "I would be very surprised if Huggins didn't become a player in this league," you have to give the guy heavy consideration. Joique Bell - He continues to play well and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills give Spiller a little break just to see what Bell can do versus a first-team defense. They should give him a shot, because it's conceivable Jackson, Lynch, and Spiller could all miss time and force Bell into the lineup early in the year. He reminds me of Marion Barber in some respects. Good balance, some burst, excellent second effort runner. If he develops at a quick rate and doesn't let the game get ahead of him, I could see him as the Bills' Barber to Spiller's Jones - with the share divided more to Spiller at this point. Curtis Steele - One of my favorite undrafted backs this year. He has already impressed against the Ravens first-team defense. He's like a lighter/speedier Marion Barber - which could get him into trouble if he doesn't gain more weight, which the Ravens have immediately asked Steele to do. This is why I think he's probably a year or two away from getting a chance to spell Rice along with Parmele, but I think they see something in the kid. He's a tough, second-effort runner with good quickness and agility. Excellent at making the first (two) guys miss. Cedric Peerman - I still believe in his abilities, but I'm concerned that he can't stay healthy enough to get on the field long enough to show anything. He's going to run out of chances soon.
 
I'm not much of a college football watcher. But who should I keep an eye on since I have three first round dynasty picks in 2011?
Very brief list...QBsJake LockerGreg McElroy (not talked about as much as other prospects, but I think a good year raises his rating)RBMark IngramDaniel ThomasWRA.J. GreenPettis (Boise State)
 
Matt, why do you think Welker's production will be more than cut in half this year? You really think that the Pats will abandon their most productive receiver in game plans in favor of 3 TE sets, featuring Alge Crumpler and two rookies and Edelman? That's gotta be one of the boldest predictions I've heard yet about this season. It's pretty obvious Welker is healthy or he wouldn't have played, and when he did he looked fine. He's got two more weeks to recover as well.

 
Clifford said:
Matt, why do you think Welker's production will be more than cut in half this year? You really think that the Pats will abandon their most productive receiver in game plans in favor of 3 TE sets, featuring Alge Crumpler and two rookies and Edelman? That's gotta be one of the boldest predictions I've heard yet about this season. It's pretty obvious Welker is healthy or he wouldn't have played, and when he did he looked fine. He's got two more weeks to recover as well.
I'm just not convinced that a couple of flat routes and hits taken means that Welker is at the point that he can come back less than a year after ACL surgery and be the same productive player. He was brought down at first contact on the plays I saw and they were short routes. They were routes that didn't require him to sink his hips and bend his knees into hard cuts and the didn't show the ability to make hard lateral cuts as a receiver or runner last night. We see receivers every year that play hurt and they are healthy enough to get on the field, but not healthy enough to achieve peak production. I still have doubts based on history that he's any different.We're talking about a player with 110-120 receptions a year for the past few years. Can you name a receiver that has come back less than a year after an ACL tear and approached elite stats? I can't. If there is someone, then I want to know and I'll have to be more considerate of Welker doing the same. While I can envision him having a 50-60 catch season at best, I don't think we're going to see him do it. I think this 3-TE set is equally about the personnel (mainly Hernandez as the receiver and the other two as blockers) as it is the scheme. This is a wrinkle that I believe will make the Pats more balanced, tougher on the ground, better in the red zone, and more difficult to defend because Hernandez can play the Welker role. If anything, I believe Welker (in addition to his talent, which I'm not contesting) came to prominence in the NE offense because they simply couldn't get the production from Ben Watson or Daniel Graham that they long-hoped to have. You don't draft two of the top TE prospects and add Alge Crumpler - a proven run blocker and a solid receiver (although his athleticism in this area has been on the decline for a few years) unless you plan on using them. The game last night showed four different ways that the Patriots are using this set (all in the 1st quarter with 1st team players) to get match up advantages on the ground and through the air. Even Tedy Bruschi on ESPN mentioned this set on the air after week one, discussing it's success. When you have a former Patriot with two minutes to pick anything to point out on a national TV telecast and he decides this is the most significant thing to discuss, it's worth paying attention. Hernandez has also been frequently targeted in practice. Recently he was cites as the one of the most targeted guys in 2-minute drills (even ahead of Moss at times). It only takes 4-5 targets per game going elsewhere (Hernandez, Tate, and Edelman) for Welker to see his opportunities drop significantly. I think Hernandez has the chance to make that kind of impact. Welker in round 7-9 sounds like a good value to me. I know I'm in the minority, but I just can't reconcile taking him in round 4-5. M
 
Thanks Sig and Matt for taking my question. You sold me on Harrison and that great Offensive line in Cleveland

 

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