UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (4 Viewers)

[modogg]

Does anyone have Dream 11 lines at their books? Nothing on Bet365 or Sportsbook.

It feels like a long time since I bet on an MMA event, but i will take a swing at that upcoming Dream event since Sportsbook put the lines up. I will go back to my man who treated me well in the 1st round of the super hulk tournament, and with another guy who indirectly cost me some coin, but won me some at the same time:Minowa +145 over Hang Man Choi for .66 unitHansen +175 over Aoki for .5 unitHansen cost me indirectly because i went in pretty good with Eddie Alvarez's coming out party in the first tournament when the odds of him winning were something insane. Stupid injury messed him up, and we had the first Hansen vs. Aoki. Aoki hasn't been too spectacular lately, and i think Hansen has a shot again. I also like Minowa to take out Choi, Minowa is famous for fighting the "freaks" in MMA and will know how to take out Choi, my guess by a heel hook or something. Anybody else have any thoughts on this card? I think it is late Tuesday night

 

[SKribbles]

Does anyone have Dream 11 lines at their books? Nothing on Bet365 or Sportsbook.

It feels like a long time since I bet on an MMA event, but i will take a swing at that upcoming Dream event since Sportsbook put the lines up. I will go back to my man who treated me well in the 1st round of the super hulk tournament, and with another guy who indirectly cost me some coin, but won me some at the same time:Minowa +145 over Hang Man Choi for .66 unitHansen +175 over Aoki for .5 unitHansen cost me indirectly because i went in pretty good with Eddie Alvarez's coming out party in the first tournament when the odds of him winning were something insane. Stupid injury messed him up, and we had the first Hansen vs. Aoki. Aoki hasn't been too spectacular lately, and i think Hansen has a shot again. I also like Minowa to take out Choi, Minowa is famous for fighting the "freaks" in MMA and will know how to take out Choi, my guess by a heel hook or something. Anybody else have any thoughts on this card? I think it is late Tuesday night

I like both of those bets and would go heavier on Minowa. He knows how to handle his freaks and made easy work out of Bob Sapp in the first round. Sapp >>> Choi. I may have to reload at sports book to make these bets.ETA: Nevermind, I just found them. Worse numbers than you are getting though. Minowa +135 and Hansen +155. 2U on Minowa and 1U on Hansen.

 

[sheerterror]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

 

[modogg]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

Bibiano was the only other one i was considering. He was actually +160 last night, but i wanted to look some more up on him. His BJJ is sick, but Joe Warren screwed me once already with beating Kid, and he looks for real. I like the idea of a small .5 bet though, and i alos like being on all underdogs with this card. Makes it a lot more fun with small risk and hopefuly a nice reward

 

[sheerterror]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

Lame - Hansen was winning the fight against Aoki despite spending much of his time on his back. He was active, constantly going for subs and mounting offense from a defensive position. Aoki landed virtually no damaging strikes, catches Hansen in a nice looking armbar with about a minute left which Hansen fends off excellently, then inexplicably with about :10 left in the fight, decides to change his position which allows Aoki to sink it in deep and tap him. I think Hansen had the decision up until that point, so I'm very disappointed in the way that played out.

 

[SKribbles]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

Lame - Hansen was winning the fight against Aoki despite spending much of his time on his back. He was active, constantly going for subs and mounting offense from a defensive position. Aoki landed virtually no damaging strikes, catches Hansen in a nice looking armbar with about a minute left which Hansen fends off excellently, then inexplicably with about :10 left in the fight, decides to change his position which allows Aoki to sink it in deep and tap him. I think Hansen had the decision up until that point, so I'm very disappointed in the way that played out.

I thought Hansen had the fight up until that point. Silly move by him.The Fernandes/Takaya fight was great! Wild slugfest the whole time.And a big to Minowa Man for taking out the giant.

 

[modogg]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

Lame - Hansen was winning the fight against Aoki despite spending much of his time on his back. He was active, constantly going for subs and mounting offense from a defensive position. Aoki landed virtually no damaging strikes, catches Hansen in a nice looking armbar with about a minute left which Hansen fends off excellently, then inexplicably with about :10 left in the fight, decides to change his position which allows Aoki to sink it in deep and tap him. I think Hansen had the decision up until that point, so I'm very disappointed in the way that played out.

I thought Hansen had the fight up until that point. Silly move by him.The Fernandes/Takaya fight was great! Wild slugfest the whole time.And a big to Minowa Man for taking out the giant.

i thought the card was tonight , the Japanese fight times always mess me up. Taking 2 of 3 with underdogs is nice, and it sounds like Hansen was a good call as well. I'm a little pissed though because i wanted to take a shot with Minowa for the Super Hulk tourny winner, but i didn't see odds for it. Nice job here guys, pleasure doing business and hopefuly we can keep this going

 

[modogg]

Does anyone have Dream 11 lines at their books? Nothing on Bet365 or Sportsbook.

It feels like a long time since I bet on an MMA event, but i will take a swing at that upcoming Dream event since Sportsbook put the lines up. I will go back to my man who treated me well in the 1st round of the super hulk tournament, and with another guy who indirectly cost me some coin, but won me some at the same time:Minowa +145 over Hang Man Choi for .66 unit

Hansen +175 over Aoki for .5 unit

Hansen cost me indirectly because i went in pretty good with Eddie Alvarez's coming out party in the first tournament when the odds of him winning were something insane. Stupid injury messed him up, and we had the first Hansen vs. Aoki. Aoki hasn't been too spectacular lately, and i think Hansen has a shot again. I also like Minowa to take out Choi, Minowa is famous for fighting the "freaks" in MMA and will know how to take out Choi, my guess by a heel hook or something.

Anybody else have any thoughts on this card? I think it is late Tuesday night

I'm not one to toot my own horn, or at least i try not to, but i do have to pat mysealf on the back for not only calling the win by sumbmission, but also by the exact submission he would use. Of course this is a little like calling Houston Alexander by KO or by getting KO'd, but still.

 

[SKribbles]

I'm playing Hansen +175 for 1u and Fernandes +140 for .5u.

Lame - Hansen was winning the fight against Aoki despite spending much of his time on his back. He was active, constantly going for subs and mounting offense from a defensive position. Aoki landed virtually no damaging strikes, catches Hansen in a nice looking armbar with about a minute left which Hansen fends off excellently, then inexplicably with about :10 left in the fight, decides to change his position which allows Aoki to sink it in deep and tap him. I think Hansen had the decision up until that point, so I'm very disappointed in the way that played out.

I thought Hansen had the fight up until that point. Silly move by him.The Fernandes/Takaya fight was great! Wild slugfest the whole time.And a big to Minowa Man for taking out the giant.

i thought the card was tonight , the Japanese fight times always mess me up. Taking 2 of 3 with underdogs is nice, and it sounds like Hansen was a good call as well. I'm a little pissed though because i wanted to take a shot with Minowa for the Super Hulk tourny winner, but i didn't see odds for it. Nice job here guys, pleasure doing business and hopefuly we can keep this going

I thought the card was pretty good. Hanson/Aoki was good as was the final of the tourney. Warren vs Fernandes was quick but entertaining.Nice call on the heal hook

 

[modogg]

this is interesting: http://tapology.com/2009/10/mma-odds-favor...ng-70-of-bouts/

if people don't want to click on it, it basically states that the favorites have won 70.9% of the fights for '08-'09. here is the article:

As mixed martial arts solidifies its place in the North American sports mainstream, fans increasingly look to professional oddsmakers for their predictions in major upcoming bouts. Tapology’s comprehensive analysis of betting lines over the past two years shows the sportsbooks are correctly calling the eventual winner in some 70% of fights. Their performance has dropped slightly so far in 2009 compared to 2008 but is relatively consistent. If you’re a fight fan who can consistently beat the 70% threshold, it might be time to put your day job on hold and take advantage of your omniscience.

Tapology pooled together the results of 727 completed mixed martial arts fights in 2008 and 2009 where the oddsmakers had posted betting lines. The underdogs rose to the occasion and knocked off the favorite 29.1% of the time in 2008. Thus far in 2008 the oddsmakers are faring slightly worse, with the underdogs victorious 30.5% of the time.

Think you can do better? There are plenty of online sportsbooks that would be happy to take you as a customer. Beating the odds might not be as easy as it sounds, however. Correctly calling an occasional UFC main event is one thing, but including the lesser known undercards for all of the major promoters makes it a whole different ball game entirely.

Year Fights Oddsmaker’s

Favorite Won Oddsmaker’s

Underdog Won

2008 399 70.9% 29.1%

2009 328 69.5% 30.5%

Tapology’s MMA odds analysis uses posted lines across more than five of the major sportsbook websites. The final lines available immediately before the start of each fight were used. Bouts from Affliction, Dream, EliteXC, Sengoku, Strikeforce, UFC, and WEC were used in the above figures.

 

[sheerterror]

We may get our wish after all: Gegard Mousasi will be fighting on the November 7 Strikeforce card - opponent TBD but rumored opponents include Paulo Filho and Sokoudjou. My guess if Filho is unlikely because of his apparent inability to pass a drug test, leaving Sok - anything at -300 or better and I'm bridgejumping.

 

[modogg]

We may get our wish after all: Gegard Mousasi will be fighting on the November 7 Strikeforce card - opponent TBD but rumored opponents include Paulo Filho and Sokoudjou. My guess if Filho is unlikely because of his apparent inability to pass a drug test, leaving Sok - anything at -300 or better and I'm bridgejumping.

i have been reading that stuff as well. I would think that Soku would be a more guarnateed fight, with Filho having a dangerous ground game. i think Soku would hopefuly get some credit for his wins in the super hulk tournament and we could stat at Moussasi at -200.

 

[sheerterror]

We may get our wish after all: Gegard Mousasi will be fighting on the November 7 Strikeforce card - opponent TBD but rumored opponents include Paulo Filho and Sokoudjou. My guess if Filho is unlikely because of his apparent inability to pass a drug test, leaving Sok - anything at -300 or better and I'm bridgejumping.

i have been reading that stuff as well. I would think that Soku would be a more guarnateed fight, with Filho having a dangerous ground game. i think Soku would hopefuly get some credit for his wins in the super hulk tournament and we could stat at Moussasi at -200.

Not a chance Sok only gets a few cents less respect than Babalu did against Mousasi a few months ago. Unfortunately, books are not dumb enough to give Sok any additional respect for being that can Bob Sapp - I think we see something in the -300 range, anything better than that is gravy. -200 (I don't think it would ever happen) and I'm reupping everywhere I can to hammer that line.

 

[modogg]

While we wait for some other lines to be put out for 104 this is a clip i saw a week ago or something that cracked me up. 1) I do enjoy seeing bullies or thugs picking fights with the wrong people, and 2) I do not underdstand the facination with some MMA guys and dressing up as women (Seth Petruzelli, Ryan Baeder i believe, etc.), but it is kind of funny. Anyway, if you haven't seen it already, enjoy the clip:

http://www.cagepotato.com/mma-fighters-drag-are-famous-now

Edit: the clip is set-up funny. First you see the thugs acting like idiots for the first minute or so, then they continue on their ways, and hopefuly they learned their lesson.

 

[modogg]

I have looked a little closer at UFC 104 lines, and think no matter what, it will be a light one for me. Just not really any good anglesI like Anthony Johnson, but he is -365 or something (i read today he weighed 220 a few weeks ago, was something like 190 today. 20 lbs. in a week??) and possibly Hardonk, but i need help with the following one. Can somebody talk me out of:

Rothwell +230 over Cain Valesquez: I like Cain Valesquez as well, and i think he has a bright future. However, Ben is a 10-year vet or something, and Cain is only on his 7th fight. The only fight of note was beating Kongo, which he beat because Kongo opted to not defend any takedowns. The fight Cain had before that wasn't that impressive either, the fight against Dennis Stojnic at one of the fight nights. Rothwell looked pretty horrible against Arlovski, but he still made it to the 3rd round where he eventually lost by TKO. Big Ben's resume is limited because he was in the IFL and everything, but 2 wins over K-Sos and a win over Roy Nelson is better then the first 5 fights Cain had.

So help me out here, anybody else thinking this is a possible win for Ben, or am i off my rocker here?

 

[SKribbles]

I have looked a little closer at UFC 104 lines, and think no matter what, it will be a light one for me. Just not really any good anglesI like Anthony Johnson, but he is -365 or something (i read today he weighed 220 a few weeks ago, was something like 190 today. 20 lbs. in a week??) and possibly Hardonk, but i need help with the following one. Can somebody talk me out of:

Rothwell +230 over Cain Valesquez: I like Cain Valesquez as well, and i think he has a bright future. However, Ben is a 10-year vet or something, and Cain is only on his 7th fight. The only fight of note was beating Kongo, which he beat because Kongo opted to not defend any takedowns. The fight Cain had before that wasn't that impressive either, the fight against Dennis Stojnic at one of the fight nights. Rothwell looked pretty horrible against Arlovski, but he still made it to the 3rd round where he eventually lost by TKO. Big Ben's resume is limited because he was in the IFL and everything, but 2 wins over K-Sos and a win over Roy Nelson is better then the first 5 fights Cain had.

So help me out here, anybody else thinking this is a possible win for Ben, or am i off my rocker here?

I haven't start looking into the Rothwell / Valequez fight yet but what I read (probably the same as you) about Johnson has made me stay away from that fight.

 

[sheerterror]

I have looked a little closer at UFC 104 lines, and think no matter what, it will be a light one for me. Just not really any good anglesI like Anthony Johnson, but he is -365 or something (i read today he weighed 220 a few weeks ago, was something like 190 today. 20 lbs. in a week??) and possibly Hardonk, but i need help with the following one. Can somebody talk me out of:

Rothwell +230 over Cain Valesquez: I like Cain Valesquez as well, and i think he has a bright future. However, Ben is a 10-year vet or something, and Cain is only on his 7th fight. The only fight of note was beating Kongo, which he beat because Kongo opted to not defend any takedowns. The fight Cain had before that wasn't that impressive either, the fight against Dennis Stojnic at one of the fight nights. Rothwell looked pretty horrible against Arlovski, but he still made it to the 3rd round where he eventually lost by TKO. Big Ben's resume is limited because he was in the IFL and everything, but 2 wins over K-Sos and a win over Roy Nelson is better then the first 5 fights Cain had.

So help me out here, anybody else thinking this is a possible win for Ben, or am i off my rocker here?

Definitely not off your rocker here Mo. Velasquez has become the darling of the HW division, and his lines are starting to become inflated accordingly. He's becoming a known name (especially with the UFC's recent attempts to really promote Latino fighters) and I believe that this juiced up line is a representation of the public love/anticipation thereof. I have not yet capped this fight, but just based on experience and Cain' previous performance against Kongo, I tend to believe there to be value in Rothwell at the current odds. I have enjoyed the cash cow that his been Cain Velasquez in his previous few fights, but I think that ends now as he is starting to either a) have inflated lines or b) will be fighting much better competition from here on out.Here's a few key points I'm going to make sure to look at when capping this fight:

-Rothwell's wrestling: How is his takedown defense, and how is his ability to scramble and get back to his feet? If he can be taken down easily, and struggles off his back, you can bet that Cain is going to exact a very similar strategy against Ben that he did against Kongo.

-Rothwell's striking: How does Ben do on his feet? How's his power? We all saw Velasquez's glaring weakness in his fight against Kongo - he still leaves a lot to be desired in the striking department. But to his credit, he completely proved he has a chin made of granite, as Kongo repeatedly tagged him but was unable to knock Cain out, or stun him enough to finish him off with strikes. However, I wonder how differently this fight may have gone had Kongo shown any semblance of takedown defense whatsoever. Also, it's tough to accuarely base Cain's next fight (namely, his striking) off of his last fight because he is so young and, relatively speaking inexperienced, and will therefore likely show marked improvement in most facets of his game on a fight by fight basis.

Really, all of these things seem to be pointing towards a no play blindly, but I'm going to dig deeper and then compare and contrast with some others to see if this fight is playable. I tend to believe that although Cain may very well win this fight, at these odds he may make it much more of a sweat than it is worth to back him.

Also, I agree that this is looking to be the lightest I'll have been on a UFC card in a longggg time. Not only are there not many fights with particularly attractive odds, but I'll also be at this one live so I don't want to "ruin" my experience there should I end up having a bad night from a gambling aspect. I mentioned it in the Wagering thread, I'll likely just end up on a few moderate sized parlays involving Rumble, Okami and Machida, but I don't anticipate any side plays that will be larger than 1u or so...unless of course Mr. Performify sees something that I've been completely missing.

 

[modogg]

I have looked a little closer at UFC 104 lines, and think no matter what, it will be a light one for me. Just not really any good anglesI like Anthony Johnson, but he is -365 or something (i read today he weighed 220 a few weeks ago, was something like 190 today. 20 lbs. in a week??) and possibly Hardonk, but i need help with the following one. Can somebody talk me out of:

Rothwell +230 over Cain Valesquez: I like Cain Valesquez as well, and i think he has a bright future. However, Ben is a 10-year vet or something, and Cain is only on his 7th fight. The only fight of note was beating Kongo, which he beat because Kongo opted to not defend any takedowns. The fight Cain had before that wasn't that impressive either, the fight against Dennis Stojnic at one of the fight nights. Rothwell looked pretty horrible against Arlovski, but he still made it to the 3rd round where he eventually lost by TKO. Big Ben's resume is limited because he was in the IFL and everything, but 2 wins over K-Sos and a win over Roy Nelson is better then the first 5 fights Cain had.

So help me out here, anybody else thinking this is a possible win for Ben, or am i off my rocker here?

Definitely not off your rocker here Mo. Velasquez has become the darling of the HW division, and his lines are starting to become inflated accordingly. He's becoming a known name (especially with the UFC's recent attempts to really promote Latino fighters) and I believe that this juiced up line is a representation of the public love/anticipation thereof. I have not yet capped this fight, but just based on experience and Cain' previous performance against Kongo, I tend to believe there to be value in Rothwell at the current odds. I have enjoyed the cash cow that his been Cain Velasquez in his previous few fights, but I think that ends now as he is starting to either a) have inflated lines or b) will be fighting much better competition from here on out.Here's a few key points I'm going to make sure to look at when capping this fight:

-Rothwell's wrestling: How is his takedown defense, and how is his ability to scramble and get back to his feet? If he can be taken down easily, and struggles off his back, you can bet that Cain is going to exact a very similar strategy against Ben that he did against Kongo.

-Rothwell's striking: How does Ben do on his feet? How's his power? We all saw Velasquez's glaring weakness in his fight against Kongo - he still leaves a lot to be desired in the striking department. But to his credit, he completely proved he has a chin made of granite, as Kongo repeatedly tagged him but was unable to knock Cain out, or stun him enough to finish him off with strikes. However, I wonder how differently this fight may have gone had Kongo shown any semblance of takedown defense whatsoever. Also, it's tough to accuarely base Cain's next fight (namely, his striking) off of his last fight because he is so young and, relatively speaking inexperienced, and will therefore likely show marked improvement in most facets of his game on a fight by fight basis.

Really, all of these things seem to be pointing towards a no play blindly, but I'm going to dig deeper and then compare and contrast with some others to see if this fight is playable. I tend to believe that although Cain may very well win this fight, at these odds he may make it much more of a sweat than it is worth to back him.

Also, I agree that this is looking to be the lightest I'll have been on a UFC card in a longggg time. Not only are there not many fights with particularly attractive odds, but I'll also be at this one live so I don't want to "ruin" my experience there should I end up having a bad night from a gambling aspect. I mentioned it in the Wagering thread, I'll likely just end up on a few moderate sized parlays involving Rumble, Okami and Machida, but I don't anticipate any side plays that will be larger than 1u or so...unless of course Mr. Performify sees something that I've been completely missing.

Congrats on going live to this one, is this your first live event? It is a good time, and i do recommend not betting too heavy on anything. I got caught up while i was at UFC 101 and added some bets while i was there on K-FLo and Griffin getting caught up in the moment. I think a couple of little plays on some underdogs would be nice, or parlays like you mentioned. I haven't even looked at it yet, but with football season in effect, i know yo can combine football bets with MMA bets to parlay, so that would be an option maybe.as for Rothwell, i pretty much see this as the same way as you with the line going to far in favor of Cain. I thought about a little bit on Rothwell before, but like you mention, likely less then a unit play if anything. Regarding your question about his wrestling, etc., i read this today:

Training-wise, what have you done to prepare specifically for him?

The biggest thing was I brought in Mike Whitehead, who wrestled the same division as Cain. He’s a really good wrestler and he’s bigger than Cain and he’s helped me with a lot of things. I’ve also got good guys like Steve Rusk, who most people don’t know, but he threw guys like Mark Coleman and Matt Lindland. I’ve got Ryan McGivern who mimics the speed and pace. He was an Iowa wrestler. Of course, Mike [Ciesnolevicz] has an excellent ground game and a better stand-up game than Cain, too.

(Source: http://www.cagepotato.com/interview-ben-ro...gamblers-happy)

Not sure if that equals Cain's training partners at AKA, but on the same hand, i am not sure how good the HWY fighters are at AKA.

 

[sheerterror]

I have looked a little closer at UFC 104 lines, and think no matter what, it will be a light one for me. Just not really any good anglesI like Anthony Johnson, but he is -365 or something (i read today he weighed 220 a few weeks ago, was something like 190 today. 20 lbs. in a week??) and possibly Hardonk, but i need help with the following one. Can somebody talk me out of:

Rothwell +230 over Cain Valesquez: I like Cain Valesquez as well, and i think he has a bright future. However, Ben is a 10-year vet or something, and Cain is only on his 7th fight. The only fight of note was beating Kongo, which he beat because Kongo opted to not defend any takedowns. The fight Cain had before that wasn't that impressive either, the fight against Dennis Stojnic at one of the fight nights. Rothwell looked pretty horrible against Arlovski, but he still made it to the 3rd round where he eventually lost by TKO. Big Ben's resume is limited because he was in the IFL and everything, but 2 wins over K-Sos and a win over Roy Nelson is better then the first 5 fights Cain had.

So help me out here, anybody else thinking this is a possible win for Ben, or am i off my rocker here?

Definitely not off your rocker here Mo. Velasquez has become the darling of the HW division, and his lines are starting to become inflated accordingly. He's becoming a known name (especially with the UFC's recent attempts to really promote Latino fighters) and I believe that this juiced up line is a representation of the public love/anticipation thereof. I have not yet capped this fight, but just based on experience and Cain' previous performance against Kongo, I tend to believe there to be value in Rothwell at the current odds. I have enjoyed the cash cow that his been Cain Velasquez in his previous few fights, but I think that ends now as he is starting to either a) have inflated lines or b) will be fighting much better competition from here on out.Here's a few key points I'm going to make sure to look at when capping this fight:

-Rothwell's wrestling: How is his takedown defense, and how is his ability to scramble and get back to his feet? If he can be taken down easily, and struggles off his back, you can bet that Cain is going to exact a very similar strategy against Ben that he did against Kongo.

-Rothwell's striking: How does Ben do on his feet? How's his power? We all saw Velasquez's glaring weakness in his fight against Kongo - he still leaves a lot to be desired in the striking department. But to his credit, he completely proved he has a chin made of granite, as Kongo repeatedly tagged him but was unable to knock Cain out, or stun him enough to finish him off with strikes. However, I wonder how differently this fight may have gone had Kongo shown any semblance of takedown defense whatsoever. Also, it's tough to accuarely base Cain's next fight (namely, his striking) off of his last fight because he is so young and, relatively speaking inexperienced, and will therefore likely show marked improvement in most facets of his game on a fight by fight basis.

Really, all of these things seem to be pointing towards a no play blindly, but I'm going to dig deeper and then compare and contrast with some others to see if this fight is playable. I tend to believe that although Cain may very well win this fight, at these odds he may make it much more of a sweat than it is worth to back him.

Also, I agree that this is looking to be the lightest I'll have been on a UFC card in a longggg time. Not only are there not many fights with particularly attractive odds, but I'll also be at this one live so I don't want to "ruin" my experience there should I end up having a bad night from a gambling aspect. I mentioned it in the Wagering thread, I'll likely just end up on a few moderate sized parlays involving Rumble, Okami and Machida, but I don't anticipate any side plays that will be larger than 1u or so...unless of course Mr. Performify sees something that I've been completely missing.

Congrats on going live to this one, is this your first live event? It is a good time, and i do recommend not betting too heavy on anything. I got caught up while i was at UFC 101 and added some bets while i was there on K-FLo and Griffin getting caught up in the moment. I think a couple of little plays on some underdogs would be nice, or parlays like you mentioned. I haven't even looked at it yet, but with football season in effect, i know yo can combine football bets with MMA bets to parlay, so that would be an option maybe.as for Rothwell, i pretty much see this as the same way as you with the line going to far in favor of Cain. I thought about a little bit on Rothwell before, but like you mention, likely less then a unit play if anything. Regarding your question about his wrestling, etc., i read this today:

Training-wise, what have you done to prepare specifically for him?

The biggest thing was I brought in Mike Whitehead, who wrestled the same division as Cain. He’s a really good wrestler and he’s bigger than Cain and he’s helped me with a lot of things. I’ve also got good guys like Steve Rusk, who most people don’t know, but he threw guys like Mark Coleman and Matt Lindland. I’ve got Ryan McGivern who mimics the speed and pace. He was an Iowa wrestler. Of course, Mike [Ciesnolevicz] has an excellent ground game and a better stand-up game than Cain, too.

(Source: http://www.cagepotato.com/interview-ben-ro...gamblers-happy)

Not sure if that equals Cain's training partners at AKA, but on the same hand, i am not sure how good the HWY fighters are at AKA.

Yup, first one live. Super pumped, especially to get away from the cold-### Northeast.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I've only seen 3 or 4 of Rothwell's fights, but I think CV is gonna roll through him.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I've only seen 3 or 4 of Rothwell's fights, but I think CV is gonna roll through him.

I agree with this.

 

[modogg]

Yup, first one live. Super pumped, especially to get away from the cold-### Northeast.

I highly recommend joining the UFC fight club. it is corny as hell, and i never go on there, but when you join they give you a chance to go to a fighter Q&A before the weigh-in, and you always have kick ### seats for teh weigh-ins. There is some other random stuff too which is alright, but I know the 2 live shows i have been too they really puty together a lot of stuff before and after the fight, if you are up for it. Actually, i think my login and stuff is still valid, not sure if it would work for you, but i may be able to get a pass to the Q&A thing and send it to you if you want. Let me know.The Q&A is with Shane Carwin, should be a good one. I had Dana White with the last one, pretty sweet as well.

 

[Softballguy]

Eric Schafer +300

 

[modogg]

Eric Schafer +300

i really agree, and this is the only play i have in so far (i think). Really strange line, and i have no idea what in the world would make the line makers put Darth Bader at -500. i really have to think nobody in their right mind would put money on Bader at that number.

 

[sheerterror]

Eric Schafer +300

i really agree, and this is the only play i have in so far (i think). Really strange line, and i have no idea what in the world would make the line makers put Darth Bader at -500. i really have to think nobody in their right mind would put money on Bader at that number.

The curse of the overinflated lines on TUF fighters.I'll PM you about the Fight Club thing, that'd be pretty cool.

 

[Balco]

I am going to UFC 106 (Lesnar-Carwin)

Fight Card

Friend is a fight club member, might go to the weigh ins and extras this card.

 

[sheerterror]

I am going to UFC 106 (Lesnar-Carwin)

Fight Card

Friend is a fight club member, might go to the weigh ins and extras this card.

That's shaping up to be an absolutely incredible card. Little Nog is also scheduled to take on Luiz Cane which should be an amazing fight, but it's not officially announced. Sick line up, top to bottom.MAIN CARD

* Champ Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (for UFC heavyweight title)

* Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

* Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira*

* Ricardo Almeida vs. Jon Fitch

* Dustin Hazelett vs. Karo Parisyan

PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)

* Phil Baroni vs. Amir Sadollah

* Marcus Davis vs. Ben Saunders

* Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt

* Brian Foster vs. Brock Larson*

* Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno*

* Jason Dent vs. George Sotiropoulos

 

[modogg]

Eric Schafer +300

i really agree, and this is the only play i have in so far (i think). Really strange line, and i have no idea what in the world would make the line makers put Darth Bader at -500. i really have to think nobody in their right mind would put money on Bader at that number.

The curse of the overinflated lines on TUF fighters.I'll PM you about the Fight Club thing, that'd be pretty cool.

Sounds good man, let me know. I saw BJ penn at UFC 78 and that was a lot of fun too, a lot of fighters hanging out everywhere tooAnd new lines went up on Sportsbook . I'd love to hear anybody's thoughts on what is up nowI hit 2 up already. Swick -150 and -165, and Amir Sadollah -140. I hit the Amir one pretty good, i anticipate both lines will move against these guys so even if i choose to change my side, i will be able to hedge alright

 

[modogg]

i think my biggest bet for the night will be Josh Neer +105. Tibau is a good and a guy i like, but Ner is a bad match-up for him, and Neer should win.

 

[modogg]

alright biggest bet i have had in awhile, getting close to Sean Sherk level.

Forrest Griffin -105, and some on -115 over Tito Ortiz

Was Tito's last fight his fight against Machida? i may hedge if i hear some crazy stuff regarding the fight as it gets closer, but i am very confident Forrest destroys Tito. any thoughts?

 

[Clayton Gray]

alright biggest bet i have had in awhile, getting close to Sean Sherk level.

Forrest Griffin -105, and some on -115 over Tito Ortiz

Was Tito's last fight his fight against Machida? i may hedge if i hear some crazy stuff regarding the fight as it gets closer, but i am very confident Forrest destroys Tito. any thoughts?

Yes. That was his most recent fight.I'm leaning exactly opposite here and will be very surprised if Griffin wins. I like watching him fight because it won't be dull, but Griffin really isn't that good. Let's look back at his UFC fights (with the most recent):

Loss to Anderson Silva - No shame in losing to him, but Griffin looked as bad as Chris Leben.
Loss to Rashad Evans - Griffin had a few moments, but he was dominated by Evans.
Win over Quinton Jackson - This is probably his most impressive performance, but there is certainly room to tear down Griffin's win. His opponent was in pretty poor condition, and while Griffin did turn in one dominating round, he didn't win convincingly. I thought Griffin won this fight, but I can also see the argument for Jackson.
Win over Shogun Rua - This is the biggest name on Griffin's resume, but it rings pretty hollow. Rua gassed faster than Tank Abbott and was obviously in no shape to be in a fight. Rua sandwiched a pair of surgeries around this fight, but I think they split the first two rounds.
Win over Hector Ramirez - This guy's biggest win is over Kendall Grove. Impressive.
Loss to Keith Jardine - Griffin got pummeled.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (rematch) - Griffin won this easily, but Bonnar is decidedly mediocre and wouldn't be in the UFC if he hadn't put on such a great show in the TUF1 finale.
Loss to Tito Ortiz - Some claim Griffin won this fight, but I didn't see that being the case at all.
Win over Elvis Sinosic - "The King of Rock n Rumble" has a losing record and is Griffin's last TKO win.
Win over Bill Mahood - Unremarkable fighter.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (TUF1 finale) - Epic fight, but I thought Bonnar won.Anyway, I sum up Forrest Griffin as nothing more than a good fighter whose aura (created in large part by his TUF1 performance and also his lovable character) is far greater than his ability. Even though Ortiz is far past his prime, I think he still outclasses Griffin. Assuming Ortiz is healthy, I see him controlling this fight on the ground and either winning at least two rounds in a decision or getting a stoppage due to ground strikes.

 

[modogg]

alright biggest bet i have had in awhile, getting close to Sean Sherk level.

Forrest Griffin -105, and some on -115 over Tito Ortiz

Was Tito's last fight his fight against Machida? i may hedge if i hear some crazy stuff regarding the fight as it gets closer, but i am very confident Forrest destroys Tito. any thoughts?

Yes. That was his most recent fight.I'm leaning exactly opposite here and will be very surprised if Griffin wins. I like watching him fight because it won't be dull, but Griffin really isn't that good. Let's look back at his UFC fights (with the most recent):

Loss to Anderson Silva - No shame in losing to him, but Griffin looked as bad as Chris Leben.
Loss to Rashad Evans - Griffin had a few moments, but he was dominated by Evans.
Win over Quinton Jackson - This is probably his most impressive performance, but there is certainly room to tear down Griffin's win. His opponent was in pretty poor condition, and while Griffin did turn in one dominating round, he didn't win convincingly. I thought Griffin won this fight, but I can also see the argument for Jackson.
Win over Shogun Rua - This is the biggest name on Griffin's resume, but it rings pretty hollow. Rua gassed faster than Tank Abbott and was obviously in no shape to be in a fight. Rua sandwiched a pair of surgeries around this fight, but I think they split the first two rounds.
Win over Hector Ramirez - This guy's biggest win is over Kendall Grove. Impressive.
Loss to Keith Jardine - Griffin got pummeled.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (rematch) - Griffin won this easily, but Bonnar is decidedly mediocre and wouldn't be in the UFC if he hadn't put on such a great show in the TUF1 finale.
Loss to Tito Ortiz - Some claim Griffin won this fight, but I didn't see that being the case at all.
Win over Elvis Sinosic - "The King of Rock n Rumble" has a losing record and is Griffin's last TKO win.
Win over Bill Mahood - Unremarkable fighter.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (TUF1 finale) - Epic fight, but I thought Bonnar won.Anyway, I sum up Forrest Griffin as nothing more than a good fighter whose aura (created in large part by his TUF1 performance and also his lovable character) is far greater than his ability. Even though Ortiz is far past his prime, I think he still outclasses Griffin. Assuming Ortiz is healthy, I see him controlling this fight on the ground and either winning at least two rounds in a decision or getting a stoppage due to ground strikes.

Yikes, I was hoping everybody was leanig toward Griffin. One of the main reasons i went so heavy here was that i was thinking this would be a line that would shoot Forrest -180 or so in a few weeks. You have good points here, let me try a couple of counter-points:1. One of the biggest for me is ring rust. It seems to be a very real thing a lot of fighters deal with, and if we are looking at Tito's last fight as 5/08, that is a year and a half without a fight. Now one thing in Tito's favor is he is a cardio guy and comes into fights in great shape, so he may combat this a bit, but i think a year and a half will have a significant impact.

2. In looking at Tito's last bunch of fights, his last significant win was against Vitor Belfort in 2/05. Since then, he got killed by Chuck, beat Forrest in a controversial decision (i believe), had a draw with a very green Rashad, and beat Ken Shamrock twice. Now i think he gave Lyoto a good run for his money and pushed Machida more then most have. But i think the fights against Forrest, Rashad and Lyoto were all when these 3 guys were green andnot truly ready for a big time fight.

3. I'm not sure about Tito's training anymore. You have Forrest who should be looking to bounce back from a truly mysterious fight against Silva, training at Xtreme Couture which should have him against a lot of top guys. Tito will likely do his Big Bear deal and I don't know if he will evolve his camp. His style has worked in the past, but they say Forrest is one of the bigger 205'ers by the time they get in the cage.

there are a couple of others, and i agree Forrest may be more of a fan favorite then a top 3 or 4 205'er, but i am more sure Tito isn't either. but you do have me thinking now.

Edit: Well, the line moved to -150 now at sportsbook, so i beat the rush. Now i am thinking i should have more on it, but oh well. It won't reach Sherk level, which may be a good thing.

 

[SKribbles]

alright biggest bet i have had in awhile, getting close to Sean Sherk level.

Forrest Griffin -105, and some on -115 over Tito Ortiz

Was Tito's last fight his fight against Machida? i may hedge if i hear some crazy stuff regarding the fight as it gets closer, but i am very confident Forrest destroys Tito. any thoughts?

Yes. That was his most recent fight.I'm leaning exactly opposite here and will be very surprised if Griffin wins. I like watching him fight because it won't be dull, but Griffin really isn't that good. Let's look back at his UFC fights (with the most recent):

Loss to Anderson Silva - No shame in losing to him, but Griffin looked as bad as Chris Leben.
Loss to Rashad Evans - Griffin had a few moments, but he was dominated by Evans.
Win over Quinton Jackson - This is probably his most impressive performance, but there is certainly room to tear down Griffin's win. His opponent was in pretty poor condition, and while Griffin did turn in one dominating round, he didn't win convincingly. I thought Griffin won this fight, but I can also see the argument for Jackson.
Win over Shogun Rua - This is the biggest name on Griffin's resume, but it rings pretty hollow. Rua gassed faster than Tank Abbott and was obviously in no shape to be in a fight. Rua sandwiched a pair of surgeries around this fight, but I think they split the first two rounds.
Win over Hector Ramirez - This guy's biggest win is over Kendall Grove. Impressive.
Loss to Keith Jardine - Griffin got pummeled.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (rematch) - Griffin won this easily, but Bonnar is decidedly mediocre and wouldn't be in the UFC if he hadn't put on such a great show in the TUF1 finale.
Loss to Tito Ortiz - Some claim Griffin won this fight, but I didn't see that being the case at all.
Win over Elvis Sinosic - "The King of Rock n Rumble" has a losing record and is Griffin's last TKO win.
Win over Bill Mahood - Unremarkable fighter.
Win over Stephan Bonnar (TUF1 finale) - Epic fight, but I thought Bonnar won.Anyway, I sum up Forrest Griffin as nothing more than a good fighter whose aura (created in large part by his TUF1 performance and also his lovable character) is far greater than his ability. Even though Ortiz is far past his prime, I think he still outclasses Griffin. Assuming Ortiz is healthy, I see him controlling this fight on the ground and either winning at least two rounds in a decision or getting a stoppage due to ground strikes.

:greatposting:I've never really bought into the Forrest hype. I definitely won't be putting money on him but I also think this fight goes the distance and who knows what the judges are going to come up with.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet.

If he can avoid Johnson putting serious hands on him in the first 3 minutes, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and run a clinic on Rumble. With Johnson coming in 6 lbs over, I'm sure the weight cut will take a huge toll on his cardio and will make it easier for Yoshida to get it to the ground. Rumble has a very good sprawl to avoid takedowns, but that won't be a factor vs Yoshida's Judo game.

 

[Clayton Gray]

1. One of the biggest for me is ring rust. It seems to be a very real thing a lot of fighters deal with, and if we are looking at Tito's last fight as 5/08, that is a year and a half without a fight. Now one thing in Tito's favor is he is a cardio guy and comes into fights in great shape, so he may combat this a bit, but i think a year and a half will have a significant impact.

Yes, this is a concern, but as you said, his cardio should help him here.

2. In looking at Tito's last bunch of fights, his last significant win was against Vitor Belfort in 2/05. Since then, he got killed by Chuck, beat Forrest in a controversial decision (i believe), had a draw with a very green Rashad, and beat Ken Shamrock twice. Now i think he gave Lyoto a good run for his money and pushed Machida more then most have. But i think the fights against Forrest, Rashad and Lyoto were all when these 3 guys were green and not truly ready for a big time fight.

Man, I guess this is a difference in perspective. Those guys may have been youngish, but they were definitely ready for prime time and all of the non-wins were to fighters superior to Griffin.

3. I'm not sure about Tito's training anymore. You have Forrest who should be looking to bounce back from a truly mysterious fight against Silva, training at Xtreme Couture which should have him against a lot of top guys. Tito will likely do his Big Bear deal and I don't know if he will evolve his camp. His style has worked in the past, but they say Forrest is one of the bigger 205'ers by the time they get in the cage. there are a couple of others, and i agree Forrest may be more of a fan favorite then a top 3 or 4 205'er, but i am more sure Tito isn't either. but you do have me thinking now.

Oh, Ortiz is certainly not elite, but I see him as being better than Griffin.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet. If he can avoid Johnson putting serious hands on him in the first 3 minutes, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and run a clinic on Rumble. With Johnson coming in 6 lbs over, I'm sure the weight cut will take a huge toll on his cardio and will make it easier for Yoshida to get it to the ground. Rumble has a very good sprawl to avoid takedowns, but that won't be a factor vs Yoshida's Judo game.

Josh Koscheck beat up Yoshida in just a couple of minutes at Fight for the Troops, and Johnson's striking is far better. While he might be able to get a take-down or two, I don't think there is much of a chance Yoshida can avoid getting KOed for 15 minutes.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet. If he can avoid Johnson putting serious hands on him in the first 3 minutes, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and run a clinic on Rumble. With Johnson coming in 6 lbs over, I'm sure the weight cut will take a huge toll on his cardio and will make it easier for Yoshida to get it to the ground. Rumble has a very good sprawl to avoid takedowns, but that won't be a factor vs Yoshida's Judo game.

I wouldn't go anywhere near that. Unless you think AJ is so drained from his cut that's he's going to look like a different fighter than who we've seen already....

 

[SKribbles]

Can anyone think of a way that Rothwell can win? I doubt he has the power to knock Cain out. He couldn't finish Arlovski who may have the weakest chin in MMA and Cain survived some huge shots from Kongo. He isn't going to beat him on the ground... so how can he win?

 

[Clayton Gray]

Can anyone think of a way that Rothwell can win? I doubt he has the power to knock Cain out. He couldn't finish Arlovski who may have the weakest chin in MMA and Cain survived some huge shots from Kongo. He isn't going to beat him on the ground... so how can he win?

Agreed.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet. If he can avoid Johnson putting serious hands on him in the first 3 minutes, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and run a clinic on Rumble. With Johnson coming in 6 lbs over, I'm sure the weight cut will take a huge toll on his cardio and will make it easier for Yoshida to get it to the ground. Rumble has a very good sprawl to avoid takedowns, but that won't be a factor vs Yoshida's Judo game.

Josh Koscheck beat up Yoshida in just a couple of minutes at Fight for the Troops, and Johnson's striking is far better. While he might be able to get a take-down or two, I don't think there is much of a chance Yoshida can avoid getting KOed for 15 minutes.

AJ's a better pure striker, but the threat of Koscheck's wrestling also played a factor. With AJ's cardio concerns, exacerbated by the cut lead me to think that Yoshida can weather the first few minutes more than the 1 out of 4 times to make this bet break even. Yoshida's camp requested a fight with AJ specifcally also leads me to believe they see something in his game to exploit. Missing weight by 6 lbs is ridiculous and leads me to believe that AJ could easily be injured going into this fight.

 

[Abrantes]

I really wanted to lay some money down on Yoshida, but Rumble is just massive. He apparently walks around at 220lbs. when he's not training for a fight. His ground game is definitely suspect, but Yoshida will have to manage to keep him in the clinch if he wants to use his judo, and I'm not sure if he'll manage to control him there. Rumble's cardio has always been suspect, and it's still a solid bet, but I don't know.

 

[Sebowski]

I am going to UFC 106 (Lesnar-Carwin)

Fight Card

Friend is a fight club member, might go to the weigh ins and extras this card.

That's shaping up to be an absolutely incredible card. Little Nog is also scheduled to take on Luiz Cane which should be an amazing fight, but it's not officially announced. Sick line up, top to bottom.MAIN CARD

* Champ Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (for UFC heavyweight title)

* Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

* Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira*

* Ricardo Almeida vs. Jon Fitch

* Dustin Hazelett vs. Karo Parisyan

PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)

* Phil Baroni vs. Amir Sadollah

* Marcus Davis vs. Ben Saunders

* Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt

* Brian Foster vs. Brock Larson*

* Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno*

* Jason Dent vs. George Sotiropoulos

Almeida is hurt. Thiago Alves is stepping in. I was excited to see Almeida at 170, but can't complain one bit about the replacement.

 

[SKribbles]

Only play for me tonight is a Machida / Velasquez / Stevenson parlay @ +127. Too much juice to bet anyone individually and I don't have a clue about Neer vs Tibau.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet. .

I wouldn't go anywhere near that.

 

[[icon]]

Total bull#### decision. Machida lost that fight.

Had 1u bet at +300 against him.... shoulda cashed.

 

[Sebowski]

Couture is a slight underdog vs. Vera at -110 whil Vera is -120. I jumped on that. Couture should have no problems with Vera. I put $10 on James Thompson at +850 against Overeem last night. Oh well. Worth the 10 bucks. Talked myself out of betting on Sakuraba as the underdog.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I am crazy or is Yoshida @+300 looking like a great bet. .

I wouldn't go anywhere near that.

Good call, I was way off of this one. Even before the knockout, Yoshida didn't look like he trained standup, ever.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Any thoughts on the Mayhem vs Jake Shields fight?

Mayhem's best attribute is his sub defense and if Shields doesn't catch Miller with a sub, I am not sure how he can finish. Mayhem's striking, while not great, is probably better than Shields. Mayhem's strengths seem to matchup well in this fight. Jacare' seemed like a worst style matchup, elite top position grappler and a better wrestler, for Mayhem and he wasn't a stong of a favorite as Shields @ -300.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Well this sucks

http://mmajunkie.com/news/16628/brock-lesn...-to-illness.mma

Brock Lesnar pulls out of UFC 106 title defense with Shane Carwin due to illness

 

[modogg]

Well this sucks

http://mmajunkie.com/news/16628/brock-lesn...-to-illness.mma

Brock Lesnar pulls out of UFC 106 title defense with Shane Carwin due to illness

in terms of wagering issues, i am getting killed with these situations. I got Lesnar at -200 when the lne first opened, no way i will get that again. I have been killed on so many of these fights being cancelled it is insane. Sorry for the complaining, i feel better. Word has it that it will be rescheduled for 1/2. not too bad