What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (7 Viewers)

I think the play is either Lesner or no play. There's just not enough value in Velasquez. If Lesner gets him down which I think he will, its over. Carwin is a very good wrestler, the same size as Lesner and he couldn't budge Lesner in the slightest once he was on top. Lesner is just a monster of a man. He gets on you spreading himself out and just envelopes you. What he did to Mir from top position was unprecedented. I've never seen someone do that type of damage from that position. That wasn't typical ground and pound. That was just throwing blows from the side, but they came with such force. And Mir was just defenseless. And I think that everything in that division in that position would be defenseless as well. Lesner is just too damn big to move. Velasquez is going to have the speed and stamina advantage but once Lesner gets his paws on him whether via a shoot or just engaging against the cage, its going to the ground and Velasquez is going to be in big trouble.

 
Damn, I waited to long to place a bet on the Brock vs. Cain fight.

Brock win inside 5 is even? I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance that happens seeing how Congo rocked Cain.

 
Just made a moderate sized play on Lesnar/Velazquez o7 minutes -125. I think the magnitude of this fight will lead to a relatively conservative first few minutes. Both fighters have shown tremendous durability and ability to absorb punishment (Cain taking several killshots from Kongo, Lesnar surviving Carwin's onslaught) and since both come from a grappling background, there's a good chance this fight gets to the floor (IMO with Lesnar on top) in the first round that can lead to a few minutes of positioning/light ground and pound. Should Cain be on top, it's likely as a result of rocking Lesnar and being able to take him down, and we saw Brock's ability to absorb ground and pound punishment from a much more powerful Carwin. Also - Carwin-Lesnar made it past this mark, and that was despite Carwin devastating Brock, and included Carwin being gassed out in the second round and eventually being taken down and submitted.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The one thing i haven't seen mentioned anywhere about the Brock-Cain fight is brock's stand-up defense against Cain. Everybody talks about how Cain has the advantage on the feet, and I am pretty sure he does, but everybody forgets how big Lesnar is and how that influences his stand-up defense. I love watching when Brock has his gloves up and arms together in front of his face. There is literally no way Cain can get his hands through Brocks forearms and lunchbox hands when they are put together. he has to try with hooks and uppercuts, which means he has to get in closer to Brock who already has a 4" reach advantage.

Just a random observation as I have made that continues to reinforce money behind Brock :rolleyes:

 
I totally respect Cain Velasquez, but Brock Lesnar will probably outweigh him by 35-40 pounds by the time the fight starts.

I don't see this ending well for the smaller man.

 
Okay, I'm going to buy this crap tonight and I expect this thread to pay for it.

Not going anywhere, feed me winners all night. What time does this start?

 
guru_007 said:
Okay, I'm going to buy this crap tonight and I expect this thread to pay for it.Not going anywhere, feed me winners all night. What time does this start?
Click to expand...
Really tough card to bet IMO. There's a lot of fights lined between -200 - +200 and I think those are the most difficult lines to bet. I don't personally see any dog that seems "live" at their current odds, and most of the favorites - while rightfully favored - currently aren't worth their prices IMO. I've got some money on Lesnar at -125 and over 7 minutes. I do believe he will win, but not enough to lay the -150 and up that he's currently sitting at. Velasquez is going to be a very tough opponent for him, and does have the technical striking advantage and ability to land repeatedly on Brock to potentially cause a knockdown/set up a takedown. He won't gas out like Carwin did, but also doesn't have Carwin's power, so will need to hope he can stuff or dance away from Lesnar's takedowns long enough for his strikes to accumulate damage and hope to finish it on the floor.I realize I provided ZERO winners for you there - but it's my honest take of this card from a gambling standpoint. Good luck, at the very least it should be a very entertaining card.
 
guru_007 said:
I don't care about the Lesnar fight, let's make money on the undercard!
Click to expand...
i dno'ty knwo what bets are still available. I think Lawlor is a nice live dog at +160, same with Jensen at +190. Not heavy plays, but they are prelims on Spike and both guys have a significant chance to win. I like Paulo Thiago, Schaub, Hammill, Kampmann and Lesnar for the rest of them. i actually think this card has some good value.
 
guru_007 said:
Thanks Sheerterror. Rangers are up3-1 Post your plays, I'll follow, don't worry about losing we will WIN!
Click to expand...
Geez, forgot about them with CFB and getting prepped for these fights.I really don't have much - Lesnar for a few units at a price that's long gone and over 7 minutes (MarshallPlan style - prob not available anywhere.)Had a few parlays with a bunch of fights that already went off. If you're hankering for some action, I like Lesnar, Shields (price keeps dropping like crazy, down to -170, opened -365, I'll jump on that soon) and maybe a little on Hammil. Tito seems old, washed up, banged up, and doesn't really care much about the sport anymore. Hammil's got to much heart to not give this fight his all - but I hesitate to bet because of how Hammil looked against the ever underwhelming Keith Jardine. Other guys on here probably like some of their bets a lot more than I do.
 
sheerterror said:
guru_007 said:
Thanks Sheerterror. Rangers are up3-1 Post your plays, I'll follow, don't worry about losing we will WIN!
Click to expand...
Geez, forgot about them with CFB and getting prepped for these fights.I really don't have much - Lesnar for a few units at a price that's long gone and over 7 minutes (MarshallPlan style - prob not available anywhere.)Had a few parlays with a bunch of fights that already went off. If you're hankering for some action, I like Lesnar, Shields (price keeps dropping like crazy, down to -170, opened -365, I'll jump on that soon) and maybe a little on Hammil. Tito seems old, washed up, banged up, and doesn't really care much about the sport anymore. Hammil's got to much heart to not give this fight his all - but I hesitate to bet because of how Hammil looked against the ever underwhelming Keith Jardine. Other guys on here probably like some of their bets a lot more than I do.
Click to expand...
i'm surprised with the late money coming in on Kampmann. I do agree if it drops to -170 it seems like a no brainer bet.
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
guru_007 said:
Thanks Sheerterror. Rangers are up3-1 Post your plays, I'll follow, don't worry about losing we will WIN!
Click to expand...
Geez, forgot about them with CFB and getting prepped for these fights.I really don't have much - Lesnar for a few units at a price that's long gone and over 7 minutes (MarshallPlan style - prob not available anywhere.)Had a few parlays with a bunch of fights that already went off. If you're hankering for some action, I like Lesnar, Shields (price keeps dropping like crazy, down to -170, opened -365, I'll jump on that soon) and maybe a little on Hammil. Tito seems old, washed up, banged up, and doesn't really care much about the sport anymore. Hammil's got to much heart to not give this fight his all - but I hesitate to bet because of how Hammil looked against the ever underwhelming Keith Jardine. Other guys on here probably like some of their bets a lot more than I do.
Click to expand...
i'm surprised with the late money coming in on Kampmann. I do agree if it drops to -170 it seems like a no brainer bet.
Click to expand...
Has to be the injury rumors. I like Kampmann in an upset, but I always find a reason to pick Kampmann. He's won my more than lost. His value might be gone though.
 
guru_007 said:
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzag -155 Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub +125
Click to expand...
the odds have got pretty good for this one, not a great advantage either way. Schaub opened as a much bigger dog. Napao has the advantage on the ground, but the best bet for this one may be that it ends in the 1st round because both guys will come out swinging. i like Schaub, but at +125 it would be a small play
 
guru_007 said:
Jensen looks goooood. Shoulda taken him at 2:1
Click to expand...
You would think the guy would have some better conditioning coming into this. I am not trying to put the guy down for it, but how do you dominate a 1st round and die out that fast?And I hope Rogan isn't this bias through the entire night.
 
modogg said:
guru_007 said:
Jensen looks goooood. Shoulda taken him at 2:1
Click to expand...
You would think the guy would have some better conditioning coming into this. I am not trying to put the guy down for it, but how do you dominate a 1st round and die out that fast?And I hope Rogan isn't this bias through the entire night.
Click to expand...
yeah....I mean these guys are mma fighters...Jensen was out of gas after the first round. he looked good though. needs better training
 
Lesnar climbed to -190 on my site, so I'm staying away. Kampmann lost his value too.

I'm going with 1u on MBP @ -150 and tempted to put a 1/2 u on Diego for fun.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sebowski said:
Lesnar limbed to -190 on my site, so I'm staying away. Kampmann lost his value too. I'm going with 1u on MBP @ -150 and tempted to put a 1/2 u on Diego for fun.
Click to expand...
Same here. Crazy how much that shot up. Not enough value there. I did see that its at -135 for Lesnar to win within 5 rounds. I can't see how this thing goes 5. Might do that.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
NutterButter said:
Sebowski said:
Lesnar limbed to -190 on my site, so I'm staying away. Kampmann lost his value too. I'm going with 1u on MBP @ -150 and tempted to put a 1/2 u on Diego for fun.
Click to expand...
Same here. Crazy how much that shot up. Not enough value there. I did see that its at -135 for Lesnar to win within 5 rounds. I can't see how this thing goes 5. Might do that.
Click to expand...
yup, perfect time to arb out of the Lesnar bets at -130 with Cain +160, now i just have to think if i want to do it or not. i have a lot of faith in Brock winning
 
modogg said:
NutterButter said:
Sebowski said:
Lesnar limbed to -190 on my site, so I'm staying away. Kampmann lost his value too. I'm going with 1u on MBP @ -150 and tempted to put a 1/2 u on Diego for fun.
Click to expand...
Same here. Crazy how much that shot up. Not enough value there. I did see that its at -135 for Lesnar to win within 5 rounds. I can't see how this thing goes 5. Might do that.
Click to expand...
yup, perfect time to arb out of the Lesnar bets at -130 with Cain +160, now i just have to think if i want to do it or not. i have a lot of faith in Brock winning
Click to expand...
Always a tough call. Take the small amount of sure money or go for the gold. I always go for the gold.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 6 (members: 0, guests: 6)
Back
Top