UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (4 Viewers)

[kutta]

I think Silva/Jones would be a better fight than Silva/GSP. As much as I like GSP, he is just too small to handle Silva.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

GSP @ +190 vs Anderson is a steal.

Shogun @ +135 vs Jones is probably a good deal as well.

I am really curious as to why people don't think GSP can run a GnP clinic on Anderson. GSP has been taking down elite level wrestlers at 170 with regularity and his been holding them down and beating on them seemingly at will. GSP @ 190 is similar to the odds Sonnen would get in a rematch, except that I think GSP is a much better fighter than Chael, better standup, better grappler, better GnP. I won't go so far as to say he's a better wrestler than Sonnen, as I'm sure that Cheal works him in a straight wrestling match, but his effective wrestling in MMA can't be too far off.

15 lbs isn't going to make that big of a difference for a guy who typically doesn't overpower fighters. The weights will probably be even closer on at fight time as GSP is probably going to substantially bulk up by the time of the fight.

 

[modogg]

I think Silva/Jones would be a better fight than Silva/GSP. As much as I like GSP, he is just too small to handle Silva.

Alright, let's work this one out once and for all. In my opinion, the size difference won't mean much, if anything. Say Silva walks around 215 usually, GSP walks around 195. Depending how much time Dana gives GSP and Silva to prepare for this, there isn't much reason to think GSP couldn't put on a few pounds of muscle. My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc. But say anyway the size difference exists. You have a weight difference, and from what I can find GSP is 5'11" and Silva is 6'1". GSP's reach is 76" and Silva's is 77". I don't know what other measurables we could throw around, but outside of a weight difference, i don't know how much there will be (stength is a trough one to gauge because it is a very broad term, and different muscle groups are used in different facets of MMA). So, if the only significant difference is weight, let's think where it applies in a match-up. A good example may be Forrest-Rich Franklin. Also looking when BJ moves up in weight, the only significant advantage that is usually seen is with wrestling and takedowns. In this case, there is no doubt that GSP will utilizse wrestling a lot more then Silva, so i do not know where the possible difference in size will have a huge effect. I really don't think GSP will have trouble taking Silva down based on weight (not saying he will take Silva down at will, but it won't be because of weight if he does).So let's hear a counter-argument................

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Edgar vs Penn is pretty much a good example a wrestler fighting a guy at weight class above who is a non-wrestler, as Frankie is a much more natural FW than LW.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc

i think a quite legitimate concern would GSP's cardio if he adds on 5-10 lbs of muscle, although cutting less weight probably benefits him

 

[Cliff Clavin]

My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc

i think a quite legitimate concern would GSP's cardio if he adds on 5-10 lbs of muscle, although cutting less weight probably benefits him

That would probably be the least concern I'd ever have for GSP.

 

[Cavalier]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

Banning them would a pretty stupid move by the UFC. All it does is ensure that Evans doesn't get a title shot for the rest of his career.

 

[No. 16]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

So they would fight each other in a non-title match? If you're training buddies/friends I would ONLY fight them in a title match.

 

[hooter311]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

Why would anyone want to see two guys in there that don't want to fight? It's a poor decision for both of their career's, but it's there decision. I'm sure if they scheduled it they would fight rather than go back on their contract, but it probably wouldn't be very entertaining.

 

[Cavalier]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

So they would fight each other in a non-title match? If you're training buddies/friends I would ONLY fight them in a title match.

Jones said that when they were training he promised Rashard he would never fight him for his belt and when Rashard got hurt and Jones got the Rua fight Rashard made the same promise to him.

 

[Sea Ropes]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

The Black House guys have the same agreement.

 

[No. 16]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

So they would fight each other in a non-title match? If you're training buddies/friends I would ONLY fight them in a title match.

Jones said that when they were training he promised Rashard he would never fight him for his belt and when Rashard got hurt and Jones got the Rua fight Rashard made the same promise to him.

Again, so they would be willing to fight each other in a non-title match? Stupid.

 

[Cavalier]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

So they would fight each other in a non-title match? If you're training buddies/friends I would ONLY fight them in a title match.

Jones said that when they were training he promised Rashard he would never fight him for his belt and when Rashard got hurt and Jones got the Rua fight Rashard made the same promise to him.

Again, so they would be willing to fight each other in a non-title match? Stupid.

Maybe but I doubt it.

 

[kutta]

I think Silva/Jones would be a better fight than Silva/GSP. As much as I like GSP, he is just too small to handle Silva.

Alright, let's work this one out once and for all. In my opinion, the size difference won't mean much, if anything. Say Silva walks around 215 usually, GSP walks around 195. Depending how much time Dana gives GSP and Silva to prepare for this, there isn't much reason to think GSP couldn't put on a few pounds of muscle. My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc. But say anyway the size difference exists. You have a weight difference, and from what I can find GSP is 5'11" and Silva is 6'1". GSP's reach is 76" and Silva's is 77". I don't know what other measurables we could throw around, but outside of a weight difference, i don't know how much there will be (stength is a trough one to gauge because it is a very broad term, and different muscle groups are used in different facets of MMA). So, if the only significant difference is weight, let's think where it applies in a match-up. A good example may be Forrest-Rich Franklin. Also looking when BJ moves up in weight, the only significant advantage that is usually seen is with wrestling and takedowns. In this case, there is no doubt that GSP will utilizse wrestling a lot more then Silva, so i do not know where the possible difference in size will have a huge effect. I really don't think GSP will have trouble taking Silva down based on weight (not saying he will take Silva down at will, but it won't be because of weight if he does).So let's hear a counter-argument................

Let me preface this by saying I am a HUGE GSP fan. I love the guy. But I think he loses handily to Silva.GSP has been fight small guys his entire career. And he can't even finish those guys. Let's look at his last six fights, and imagine what Silva would have done to those guys:Koschek - decision - yes, GSP completely dominated. Silva would have beaten him much worseDan Hardy - decision - Dan #######g Hardy? GSP couldn't finish him, and again Silva would have completely destroyed himTiago Alves - decision - The only "big" guy GSP has faced in quite awhileBJ Penn - BJ quit but would have been a decision if he went another round - He can't even beat Frankie Edgar. Can you imagine what Silva would do to him?Jon Fitch - decision - Again, he would have no chance against Silva. Matt Serra - stopped due to knees - He beat GSP once, and GSP dominated him the second fight, but again, these guys are just too small to even think about fighting Silva.GSP dominates smaller guys, but he can't finish them. He is fighting guys that can legitimately fight in the next weight class DOWN, not UP.Now let's look at Silva's fights:Belfort - knockout - Could fight at light heavyweightSonnen - triangle - Could fight at light heavyweightMaia - decision - Could fight at light heavyweightForest - slaughtered him - does fight at light heavyweightAnd the list goes on - Henderson, Franklin, etc. All guys that could and do fight at 205.So the bottom line for me is that GSP fights guys in his weight class and below, and Silva fights guys in his weight class and above. I think that is a HUGE difference that will show itself during the fight. I don't think GSP would have a prayer of winning the 205 belt, but all Silva has to do is decide to do it and the belt is his (well, now that Jones is in the mix it just got a bit more difficult). Silva is bigger, quicker, and stronger, and I think GSP would lose handily.

 

[Possum]

Before the Jones/Bader fight I said to the group was with that Jon Jones would be a champion within a year which was roundly accepted by jeers and jokesThen the fight happenedJones might be the best athlete in MMA historyI think he beats a rusty Shogun

agree that Jones is an awesome athlete, but Shogun is a hell of an athlete too. I think this should be a great fight and I really think Shogun should still be the favorite.but if Jones wins this convincingly, though, I think the odds are good that he's headed for a Silva/GSP-type run at light heavy, which is insane considering the amount of time he's been training.

 

[Possum]

I love GSP but I have no idea how he would beat Silva. Definitely not in the standup and he isn't going to ground'n'pound him out or submit him. So it would have to be laying on him for 3 of 5. Just don't see it happening.

Agreed. Silva has the entire skill set of GSP, plus he will outweigh him by 15-20 pounds on the night of the fight.

well hopefully the sportsbooks feel the same way and GSP opens as a nice underdog. GSP has some legit stand-up, and it is likely that GSP could be quicker on his feet and have a bit of a boxing clinic like he did against Koscheck. Of course this won't happen because Silva is very dangerous on his feet. I am just thankful we can have these discussions and they are not all hypothetical like most of these conversations are (e.g. the discussions with Fedor vs. anybody in the UFC).And I can't even imagine the hate that would be directed jake Shields way if he happens to beat GSP in their upcoming fight. the gu7y has won 11 in a row (or whatever it is)....

I think Jake Shields' chances of beating GSP are slim at best - he's going to get beat up on his feet similar to Josh Koscheck (but worse, because Koscheck is Muhammad Ali compared to Shields' striking).

 

[Abrantes]

Edgar vs Penn is pretty much a good example a wrestler fighting a guy at weight class above who is a non-wrestler, as Frankie is a much more natural FW than LW.

Interesting comparison, but despite his lack of a traditional wrestling background, Penn's grappling is incredible, and his takedown defense is among the very best in the world. For all his merits, the same can't be said for Anderson.

 

[Abrantes]

I think Silva/Jones would be a better fight than Silva/GSP. As much as I like GSP, he is just too small to handle Silva.

Alright, let's work this one out once and for all. In my opinion, the size difference won't mean much, if anything. Say Silva walks around 215 usually, GSP walks around 195. Depending how much time Dana gives GSP and Silva to prepare for this, there isn't much reason to think GSP couldn't put on a few pounds of muscle. My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc. But say anyway the size difference exists. You have a weight difference, and from what I can find GSP is 5'11" and Silva is 6'1". GSP's reach is 76" and Silva's is 77". I don't know what other measurables we could throw around, but outside of a weight difference, i don't know how much there will be (stength is a trough one to gauge because it is a very broad term, and different muscle groups are used in different facets of MMA). So, if the only significant difference is weight, let's think where it applies in a match-up. A good example may be Forrest-Rich Franklin. Also looking when BJ moves up in weight, the only significant advantage that is usually seen is with wrestling and takedowns. In this case, there is no doubt that GSP will utilizse wrestling a lot more then Silva, so i do not know where the possible difference in size will have a huge effect. I really don't think GSP will have trouble taking Silva down based on weight (not saying he will take Silva down at will, but it won't be because of weight if he does).So let's hear a counter-argument................

Let me preface this by saying I am a HUGE GSP fan. I love the guy. But I think he loses handily to Silva.GSP has been fight small guys his entire career. And he can't even finish those guys. Let's look at his last six fights, and imagine what Silva would have done to those guys:Koschek - decision - yes, GSP completely dominated. Silva would have beaten him much worseDan Hardy - decision - Dan #######g Hardy? GSP couldn't finish him, and again Silva would have completely destroyed himTiago Alves - decision - The only "big" guy GSP has faced in quite awhileBJ Penn - BJ quit but would have been a decision if he went another round - He can't even beat Frankie Edgar. Can you imagine what Silva would do to him?Jon Fitch - decision - Again, he would have no chance against Silva. Matt Serra - stopped due to knees - He beat GSP once, and GSP dominated him the second fight, but again, these guys are just too small to even think about fighting Silva.GSP dominates smaller guys, but he can't finish them. He is fighting guys that can legitimately fight in the next weight class DOWN, not UP.Now let's look at Silva's fights:Belfort - knockout - Could fight at light heavyweightSonnen - triangle - Could fight at light heavyweightMaia - decision - Could fight at light heavyweightForest - slaughtered him - does fight at light heavyweightAnd the list goes on - Henderson, Franklin, etc. All guys that could and do fight at 205.So the bottom line for me is that GSP fights guys in his weight class and below, and Silva fights guys in his weight class and above. I think that is a HUGE difference that will show itself during the fight. I don't think GSP would have a prayer of winning the 205 belt, but all Silva has to do is decide to do it and the belt is his (well, now that Jones is in the mix it just got a bit more difficult). Silva is bigger, quicker, and stronger, and I think GSP would lose handily.

Though I see your bigger point, the whole "Anderson would crush the guys that GSP has beaten" thing is pretty silly to me. MMAth holds very little predictive value. St. Pierre and Anderson have very different styles, and the circumstances of each fight are always different. GSP focuses on the win above all else, with a more deliberate and cautious style than Anderson, but he's no less dominant. The fact that he gets more decisions has a lot to do with his style, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's incapable of finishing them, or that he'd lose to a guy who would finish those same guys.Weight disparities in MMA are often overstated, in my view. Didn't we just see Cain Velasquez taking down a man who likely outweighed him by at least 40 pounds? Yes, size matters, but it's not everything - particularly when it comes to a wrestler versus someone with suspect takedown defense. Also, Fitch is a huge welterweight and former middleweight who cuts a lot of weight, and GSP whupped him to the point that I felt bad.I really hate the idea of a superfight between champions from two different weight classes, but I'll definitely pay close attention to the line on St. Pierre if the fight is booked.

 

[Sebowski]

Give me Silva-Bones over Silva-GSP all day.

 

[Abrantes]

GSP @ +190 vs Anderson is a steal.

Shogun @ +135 vs Jones is probably a good deal as well.

I am really curious as to why people don't think GSP can run a GnP clinic on Anderson. GSP has been taking down elite level wrestlers at 170 with regularity and his been holding them down and beating on them seemingly at will. GSP @ 190 is similar to the odds Sonnen would get in a rematch, except that I think GSP is a much better fighter than Chael, better standup, better grappler, better GnP. I won't go so far as to say he's a better wrestler than Sonnen, as I'm sure that Cheal works him in a straight wrestling match, but his effective wrestling in MMA can't be too far off.

15 lbs isn't going to make that big of a difference for a guy who typically doesn't overpower fighters. The weights will probably be even closer on at fight time as GSP is probably going to substantially bulk up by the time of the fight.

 

[hooter311]

pic

This pic caught my eye as one of the coolest I've seen from the MMA world recently. The young lion roaring, while the old lion stalks in the shadows.

Probably would have leaned the dog either way in this one. Shogun at +135 seems like a gift. The "unorthodox" striking of Jones leaves him far too vunerable on the ground. Shogun has enough experience with huge dudes to not panic if he gets overpowered. I don't know if his sweeps will be enough to gain too much of a positional advantage on the ground though.

Bones crouched down across from Bader the other night was the most intimidating thing I've ever seen at that weight class, but again I'm not impressed with his fundamentals. Using video game moves only gets you so far for so long.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Going to have to brush up on Rua and see how he has fared on his back. Jones is going to put him there, and if Rua can't escape, Jones' elbows will finish the fight.

 

[Cavalier]

Going to have to brush up on Rua and see how he has fared on his back. Jones is going to put him there, and if Rua can't escape, Jones' elbows will finish the fight.

I don't see anyone providing a challenge to Jones at 205 and he isn't even really polished yet.

 

[hooter311]

Going to have to brush up on Rua and see how he has fared on his back. Jones is going to put him there, and if Rua can't escape, Jones' elbows will finish the fight.

I don't see anyone providing a challenge to Jones at 205 and he isn't even really polished yet.

Let's see how he actually does against a top 5 guy before crowning him an unconquerable champ. Bader was a great test, but he brought a terrible game plan with him.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Bader was a great test, but he brought a terrible game plan with him.

I really don't know what Bader could have done. Really like the guy (and think he is one of the better 205's out there). He was just outclassed here.Jones would win on feet with that reach advantage (Bader's only chance in fight was with lucky shot?) & he subbed the All-American wrestler on the ground. Maybe someone like Machida could frustrate him, but it's hard to see him losing the way he's going right now.

 

[modogg]

Bader was a great test, but he brought a terrible game plan with him.

I really don't know what Bader could have done. Really like the guy (and think he is one of the better 205's out there). He was just outclassed here.Jones would win on feet with that reach advantage (Bader's only chance in fight was with lucky shot?) & he subbed the All-American wrestler on the ground. Maybe someone like Machida could frustrate him, but it's hard to see him losing the way he's going right now.

Bader seemed beat near the start of the 2nd round. i have to think he was gassed or something when he pulled guard on Jones before getting subbed. i did not think we would see thatETA: nothing against Bader there because i agree i don't know what else he could have done

 

[Clayton Gray]

I think Bader realized that he didn't know what else he could have done. His corner's advice of "lay your ****ing hands on him" was pretty stellar though.

 

[modogg]

Did anyone see MMA live? Rashard and Jones have an agreement not to fight each other for the belt. They should both be banned from the UFC. Very lame IMO but Rashard would get crushed anyway.

So they would fight each other in a non-title match? If you're training buddies/friends I would ONLY fight them in a title match.

Jones said that when they were training he promised Rashard he would never fight him for his belt and when Rashard got hurt and Jones got the Rua fight Rashard made the same promise to him.

Again, so they would be willing to fight each other in a non-title match? Stupid.

Maybe but I doubt it.

i was watching the post-fight press conference and a related question came up like this to Jones. /he didn't take the defiant stance like the dorks at AKA do, rather hinted that he really wouldn't want to fight Rashad, but made it seem like Dana is the boss. i believe i also saw something that night that eluded to the possibility of Rashad going down to 185 if he had to. that would seem like a brutal cut in weight for him though

 

[modogg]

I think Bader realized that he didn't know what else he could have done. His corner's advice of "lay your ****ing hands on him" was pretty stellar though.

Seriously, Bader should have grabbed CB Dalloway and tossed him into the octagon and yelled for him to show him how to do it

 

[Sebowski]

pic

This pic caught my eye as one of the coolest I've seen from the MMA world recently. The young lion roaring, while the old lion stalks in the shadows.

Probably would have leaned the dog either way in this one. Shogun at +135 seems like a gift. The "unorthodox" striking of Jones leaves him far too vunerable on the ground. Shogun has enough experience with huge dudes to not panic if he gets overpowered. I don't know if his sweeps will be enough to gain too much of a positional advantage on the ground though.

Bones crouched down across from Bader the other night was the most intimidating thing I've ever seen at that weight class,

Since Shogun burst on the scene winning the Pride GP.

 

[hooter311]

i was watching the post-fight press conference and a related question came up like this to Jones. /he didn't take the defiant stance like the dorks at AKA do, rather hinted that he really wouldn't want to fight Rashad, but made it seem like Dana is the boss. i believe i also saw something that night that eluded to the possibility of Rashad going down to 185 if he had to. that would seem like a brutal cut in weight for him though

I seen a Rashad quote that said he would move up or down if Jones won the belt. Up seems much more likely, but what's his ceiling there? He wouldn't stand a chance with anyone ranked above Mir.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I think Bader realized that he didn't know what else he could have done. His corner's advice of "lay your ****ing hands on him" was pretty stellar though.

Seriously, Bader should have grabbed CB Dalloway and tossed him into the octagon and yelled for him to show him how to do it

Dolloway would have tapped out from the thump of landing on the canvas, then make faces with his giant weird lips and try to explain that he didn't just tap out.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

i was watching the post-fight press conference and a related question came up like this to Jones. /he didn't take the defiant stance like the dorks at AKA do, rather hinted that he really wouldn't want to fight Rashad, but made it seem like Dana is the boss. i believe i also saw something that night that eluded to the possibility of Rashad going down to 185 if he had to. that would seem like a brutal cut in weight for him though

I seen a Rashad quote that said he would move up or down if Jones won the belt. Up seems much more likely, but what's his ceiling there? He wouldn't stand a chance with anyone ranked above Mir.

He'd go down. He isn't exactly a big lhw to begin and is only 5'11". No way could he compete with the giants at the top of the hw food chain (Lesnar, Carwin, Cain).

 

[Abrantes]

pic

This pic caught my eye as one of the coolest I've seen from the MMA world recently. The young lion roaring, while the old lion stalks in the shadows.

Probably would have leaned the dog either way in this one. Shogun at +135 seems like a gift. The "unorthodox" striking of Jones leaves him far too vunerable on the ground. Shogun has enough experience with huge dudes to not panic if he gets overpowered. I don't know if his sweeps will be enough to gain too much of a positional advantage on the ground though.

Bones crouched down across from Bader the other night was the most intimidating thing I've ever seen at that weight class, but again I'm not impressed with his fundamentals. Using video game moves only gets you so far for so long.

Curiously enough, Shogun was known as the video game move guy in his early Pride days.

 

[kutta]

I think Silva/Jones would be a better fight than Silva/GSP. As much as I like GSP, he is just too small to handle Silva.

Alright, let's work this one out once and for all. In my opinion, the size difference won't mean much, if anything. Say Silva walks around 215 usually, GSP walks around 195. Depending how much time Dana gives GSP and Silva to prepare for this, there isn't much reason to think GSP couldn't put on a few pounds of muscle. My only concern with that is that GSP won't be used to fighting at the different weight and that it may mess up his quickness, etc. But say anyway the size difference exists. You have a weight difference, and from what I can find GSP is 5'11" and Silva is 6'1". GSP's reach is 76" and Silva's is 77". I don't know what other measurables we could throw around, but outside of a weight difference, i don't know how much there will be (stength is a trough one to gauge because it is a very broad term, and different muscle groups are used in different facets of MMA). So, if the only significant difference is weight, let's think where it applies in a match-up. A good example may be Forrest-Rich Franklin. Also looking when BJ moves up in weight, the only significant advantage that is usually seen is with wrestling and takedowns. In this case, there is no doubt that GSP will utilizse wrestling a lot more then Silva, so i do not know where the possible difference in size will have a huge effect. I really don't think GSP will have trouble taking Silva down based on weight (not saying he will take Silva down at will, but it won't be because of weight if he does).So let's hear a counter-argument................

Let me preface this by saying I am a HUGE GSP fan. I love the guy. But I think he loses handily to Silva.GSP has been fight small guys his entire career. And he can't even finish those guys. Let's look at his last six fights, and imagine what Silva would have done to those guys:Koschek - decision - yes, GSP completely dominated. Silva would have beaten him much worseDan Hardy - decision - Dan #######g Hardy? GSP couldn't finish him, and again Silva would have completely destroyed himTiago Alves - decision - The only "big" guy GSP has faced in quite awhileBJ Penn - BJ quit but would have been a decision if he went another round - He can't even beat Frankie Edgar. Can you imagine what Silva would do to him?Jon Fitch - decision - Again, he would have no chance against Silva. Matt Serra - stopped due to knees - He beat GSP once, and GSP dominated him the second fight, but again, these guys are just too small to even think about fighting Silva.GSP dominates smaller guys, but he can't finish them. He is fighting guys that can legitimately fight in the next weight class DOWN, not UP.Now let's look at Silva's fights:Belfort - knockout - Could fight at light heavyweightSonnen - triangle - Could fight at light heavyweightMaia - decision - Could fight at light heavyweightForest - slaughtered him - does fight at light heavyweightAnd the list goes on - Henderson, Franklin, etc. All guys that could and do fight at 205.So the bottom line for me is that GSP fights guys in his weight class and below, and Silva fights guys in his weight class and above. I think that is a HUGE difference that will show itself during the fight. I don't think GSP would have a prayer of winning the 205 belt, but all Silva has to do is decide to do it and the belt is his (well, now that Jones is in the mix it just got a bit more difficult). Silva is bigger, quicker, and stronger, and I think GSP would lose handily.

Though I see your bigger point, the whole "Anderson would crush the guys that GSP has beaten" thing is pretty silly to me. MMAth holds very little predictive value. St. Pierre and Anderson have very different styles, and the circumstances of each fight are always different. GSP focuses on the win above all else, with a more deliberate and cautious style than Anderson, but he's no less dominant. The fact that he gets more decisions has a lot to do with his style, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's incapable of finishing them, or that he'd lose to a guy who would finish those same guys.Weight disparities in MMA are often overstated, in my view. Didn't we just see Cain Velasquez taking down a man who likely outweighed him by at least 40 pounds? Yes, size matters, but it's not everything - particularly when it comes to a wrestler versus someone with suspect takedown defense. Also, Fitch is a huge welterweight and former middleweight who cuts a lot of weight, and GSP whupped him to the point that I felt bad.I really hate the idea of a superfight between champions from two different weight classes, but I'll definitely pay close attention to the line on St. Pierre if the fight is booked.

I disagree that there is not much predictive value in MMA. You have to admit that Silva would crush Hardy and Serra. My point was to show that GSP is mostly fighting guys in his weight class and below, while Silva fights in his weight class and above. And a lot of guys Silva has beaten would be tough for GSP to handle. The opposite is not necessarily true.When you talk about Cain, he is just a freak. Look what Lesnar did to Couture, mostly due to the size advantage.

 

[hooter311]

Shogun up to +185 at 5dimes. This is just crazy.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I disagree that there is not much predictive value in MMA. You have to admit that Silva would crush Hardy and Serra. My point was to show that GSP is mostly fighting guys in his weight class and below, while Silva fights in his weight class and above. And a lot of guys Silva has beaten would be tough for GSP to handle. The opposite is not necessarily true.When you talk about Cain, he is just a freak. Look what Lesnar did to Couture, mostly due to the size advantage.

BJ and Serra were guys a weight class below GSP. Fitch, Koscheck, Alves, and Hughes are certainly not, and I really don't think Hardy could possibly make 155. Maia and Leities could possibly make 170. Silva fights at 205 are a bit overrated for this matchup because the guys he fought there do not use a style that would use their size advantage. Hell, BJ took Machida to a decision @ 205 in a fight Machida wasn't particularly dominating. Silva has lost his last 5 full rounds vs elite wrestlers in the UFC. He was able to finish Henderson in the 2nd, but Henderson is notorious for having terrible cardio and falling in love with his standup and Sonnen sub defense is particularly bad for a top level MMA fighter. GSP and his camp are probably the best in MMA at creating a gameplan and sticking to it. Couple this with the fact that GSP's cardio and overall grappling is much better than those two, I really don't see a hole in GSP's game that I think Anderson could regularly support. Of course Anderson can finish him on the feet, but I'm pretty sure that GSP knows this and will put himself in position to make this unlikely.

 

[Sebowski]

I do not want to see GSP-Anderson. Anderson is way too big for GSP. Nothing would come of the fight. They are both all-time greats. They don;t need to fight each other to prove that.

We get to see two of the greatest MMA fighters go at it? They do not need to fight each other to pad tier resumes for P4P GOAT, but as a fan I would love to see arguably the two best MMA fighters ever face each other.

At different points in their career out of their ideal weightclass.

Silva is getting older so that's why it needs to be done ASAP, but 15 pounds is not a lot of ground to make up considering that both of these guys rely on technique/skill more than athleticism. Now, don't get me wrong but both have top notch athleticism, but the focus of the fight will be top notch striking and the classic wrestler vs bjj match up on the ground. I'd rather see GSP fight Silva than run through all the Welterweights for the 3rd time.

First, 15 fight pounds is a lot to give up. Anderson has said he walks around between 215 and 220; GSP just said he walks around at 190. I think you are underestimating Anderson's size and/or overestimating GSP's. pic of Silva next to a big dude pic of GSP next to a little dude

Second, I feel Silva peaked a couple years ago, and GSP is peaking right now. I don't think making them fight would prove anything in an all-time p4p list. I'd much rather see Anderson move up and take on challenges at 205 (Shogun, Rampage, Rashad) and see GSP move down and clean out the lightweights. GSP said he does weight training to look good. He has a lot of "show" muscle. He can lose that, drop down, and clear out 155 if someone there is dominating while GSP takes care of the rest of his 170 business (Shields, probably Fitch again, and a Condit/Alves winner; that's a year's worth of fights). Yes, he would be the heavy favorite in all of those, but that I don't hold that against him.

I feel the same way I did 2 months ago. Anderson needs to leave 185 behind and go after the 205 belt before he gets too old. Remember when everyone was wishing they could have seen Tyson-Holfield? And then we saw Tyson-Holyfield? Sure, some people will still say "wish we saw them in their prime", but the luster is all gone. I don;t see whats to gain from GSP-Anderson unless it's a fight of the year kind of fight. I think that is a huge long shot.

 

[kutta]

I disagree that there is not much predictive value in MMA. You have to admit that Silva would crush Hardy and Serra. My point was to show that GSP is mostly fighting guys in his weight class and below, while Silva fights in his weight class and above. And a lot of guys Silva has beaten would be tough for GSP to handle. The opposite is not necessarily true.When you talk about Cain, he is just a freak. Look what Lesnar did to Couture, mostly due to the size advantage.

BJ and Serra were guys a weight class below GSP. Fitch, Koscheck, Alves, and Hughes are certainly not, and I really don't think Hardy could possibly make 155. Maia and Leities could possibly make 170. Silva fights at 205 are a bit overrated for this matchup because the guys he fought there do not use a style that would use their size advantage. Hell, BJ took Machida to a decision @ 205 in a fight Machida wasn't particularly dominating. Silva has lost his last 5 full rounds vs elite wrestlers in the UFC. He was able to finish Henderson in the 2nd, but Henderson is notorious for having terrible cardio and falling in love with his standup and Sonnen sub defense is particularly bad for a top level MMA fighter. GSP and his camp are probably the best in MMA at creating a gameplan and sticking to it. Couple this with the fact that GSP's cardio and overall grappling is much better than those two, I really don't see a hole in GSP's game that I think Anderson could regularly support. Of course Anderson can finish him on the feet, but I'm pretty sure that GSP knows this and will put himself in position to make this unlikely.

I agree with most of what you say here. GSP will have a great game plan and he will be very prepared. I just think Silva is too big and strong for him. If Silva catches him one time, the fight is over. GSP will have to catch Silva multiple times in order to end it.I could possibly see GSP winning a decision, but I could easily see Silva finishing the fight in the 2nd or 3rd round by knockout our sub.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I could possibly see GSP winning a decision, but I could easily see Silva finishing the fight in the 2nd or 3rd round by knockout or sub.

:(

 

[sheerterror]

Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being

one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.

I'll preface this by saying that I've got some very substantial inside information on this fight, which is enough for me to bet it regardless.

However, when you look closer at the fight as well as the situation at hand, I think this is the perfect storm to unload on.

Villante is being brought in by Strikeforce to beef up the LHW division. He signed a 2 year/6 fight contract. He's been on Strikeforce's radar

for a while, they like him and they have plans for him - he's not just some local talent they are throwing on this card. Due to an injury to Dave Herman, a slot

opened up on the main card at this event and Strikeforce was quick to contact Villante knowing 1) that he was a highly regarded prospect who was on the UFC

and Bellator radar 2) was a local draw that could bring people with him and 3) has fought at heavyweight before. Everything lined up to bring Gian right onto

the main televised portion of this card. And what's even better is that it's against the perfect opponent in Chad Griggs.

Chad Griggs is a 32 year old, part time MMA fighter with only 10 pro fights in his 5 year career. Like Villante, he has an impressive record that consists

mostly of beating up talent at regional shows. His current claim to fame is playing punching bag/tackling dummy to juiced up Bobby Lashley en route to handing

Lashley his first career loss. In this fight, Lashely took Griggs down at will, landed some ground and pound, got back up and did the same thing for two rounds.

As time passed, Lashley's ground and pound got less and less effective as he tired substantially. Lashley gassed out so hard that this fight was actually stood

up from full mount because Lashley was actually stalling from one of the most dominant positions in all of MMA. Following the stand up, he shot in desperately,

was (finally) sprawled on, and Griggs landed a few punches. As the round expired, so did Lashley's pathetic gas tank and it resulted in a major upset victory for

Chad Griggs. We'll give Griggs his credit here because he managed to keep his Strikeforce career alive for an additional fight by outlasting Lashley. From

what I see of Griggs' skillset, he's a tough, durable fighter with OK stand up and not much else.

Villante is a 7-1 2 year vet with New Jersey based Ring of Combat (the organization responsible for producing guys like the Miller brothers, Frankie Edgar, Pete Sell,

Ricardo Romero and some other pro guys from the Northeast region.) He holds both the LHW and HW belts with ROC, and his only loss occurred via a fluke elbow injury

while fighting the underwhelming Demetrius Richards. Apart from this set back, Villante has finished all of his fights. Villante brings to the ring with him a great deal of athleticism evidenced by a very successful football career at Hofstra University, where he was an All American linebacker and ultimately tried out for a few NFL teams before moving on to MMA. While at Hofstra, he also wrestled for a season (I assure you this is overblown - he wasn't truly a collegiate wrestler) but was a very, very good wrestler in High School. He's got excellent kick boxing with some legitimate power, a strong wrestling base to take opponents down if needed, or keep the fights standing, an improving ground game once it does get to the ground, and most importantly, toughness. His biggest assets are likely his strength and his athleticism. He excels at overpowering guys he brings to the floor, impoving position, and raining down impressive ground and pound which has resulted in several TKO victories, and a few rear naked chokes when guys get tired of getting hit in the face. The one thing that has brought Gian down a bit in the past is his gas tank - which I know for certain will be improved for this fight. Villante was also likely to have been on TUF had they done a LHW season a year ago after he tried out. They ended up going with Middleweight that season and Gian returned to ROC.

This fight is the perfect opportunity for Villante to introduce himself to the mainstream MMA world with an impressive showing. This fight couldn't have aligned

itself better for Villante and Strikeforce, as he's taking on a "name" opponent in Chad Griggs who carries with him the stigma of being "the man who beat Bobby

Lashley" - but when we look at how that went down, we know it was probably more of a fluke/discredit to Lashley than it was a feather in Griggs' cap. This

fight is a way to build Gian's name up with a fight against a guy most of the Strikeforce crowd already knows thanks to his previous win, but also a guy who

realistically was brought in to pad Lashley's record which ultimately backfired - and Strikeforce knows this. I look for Villante to come out strong, hurt Griggs

early until he eventually brings Griggs down and finishes him either via TKO or a RNC in the first round. If Villante finds himself losing the standup battle early

he'll have no probably overpowering Griggs with a takedown and putting himself in a more comfortable position on the ground to work his ground and pound.

I'm not in love with the line - which actually opened (for about 2 minutes) at Villante +120, quickly got bet to -115/-115 and like a runaway train, has ballooned up to -240 since then - and rightfully so, because who the hell wants to lay -240 or anyone. I'd like to say hold off on betting Villante because MAYBE the public will come strolling in closer to Saturday with the "Hey, I've heard of Chad Griggs, he's at a + number?! Let me bet him" mentality which could maybe swing the line back in our favor...but truthfully, I don't know that this will happen. I believe Villante belongs in the -400 and up range, and regardless of any "value" I see in this current line, I believe he wins this fight with ease.

Here's an excellent video highlighting some of Villante's best moments inside the ring so far in his career http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYj8H0QkBx4

 

[modogg]

Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being

one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.

I'll preface this by saying that I've got some very substantial inside information on this fight, which is enough for me to bet it regardless.

However, when you look closer at the fight as well as the situation at hand, I think this is the perfect storm to unload on.

Villante is being brought in by Strikeforce to beef up the LHW division. He signed a 2 year/6 fight contract. He's been on Strikeforce's radar

for a while, they like him and they have plans for him - he's not just some local talent they are throwing on this card. Due to an injury Dave Herman, a slot

opened up on the main card at this event and Strikeforce was quick to contact Villante knowing 1) that he was a highly regarded prospect who was on the UFC

and Bellator radar 2) was a local draw that could bring people with him and 3) has fought at heavyweight before. Everything lined up to bring Gian right onto

the main televised portion of this card. And what's even better is that it's against the perfect opponent in Chad Griggs.

Chad Griggs is a 32 year old, part time MMA fighter with only 10 pro fights in his 5 year career. Like Villante, he has an impressive record that consists

mostly of beating up talent at regional shows. His current claim to fame is playing punching bag/tackling dummy to juiced up Bobby Lashley en route to handing

Lashley his first career loss. In this fight, Lashely took Griggs down at will, landed some ground and pound, got back up and did the same thing for two rounds.

As time passed, Lashley's ground and pound got less and less effective as he tired substantially. Lashley gassed out so hard that this fight was actually stood

up from full mount because Lashley was actually stalling from one of the most dominant positions in all of MMA. Following the stand up, he shot in desperately,

was (finally) sprawled on, and Griggs landed a few punches. As the round expired, so did Lashley's pathetic gas tank and it resulted in a major upset victory for

Chad Griggs. We'll give Griggs his credit here because he managed to keep his Strikeforce career alive for an additional fight by outlasting Lashley. From

what I see of Griggs' skillset, he's a tough, durable fighter with OK stand up and not much else.

Villante is a 7-1 2 year vet with New Jersey based Ring of Combat (the organization responsible for producing guys like the Miller brothers, Frankie Edgar, Pete Sell,

Ricardo Romero and some other pro guys from the Northeast region.) He holds both the LHW and HW belts with ROC, and his only loss occurred via a fluke elbow injury

while fighting the underwhelming Demetrius Richards. Apart from this set back, Villante has finished all of his fights. Villante brings to the ring with him a great deal of athleticism evidenced by a very successful football career at Hofstra University, where he was an All American linebacker and ultimately tried out for a few NFL teams before moving on to MMA. While at Hofstra, he also wrestled for a season (I assure you this is overblown - he wasn't truly a collegiate wrestler) but was a very, very good wrestler in High School. He's got excellent kick boxing with some legitimate power, a strong wrestling base to take opponents down if needed, or keep the fights standing, an improving ground game once it does get to the ground, and most importantly, toughness. His biggest assets are likely his strength and his athleticism. He excels at overpowering guys he brings to the floor, impoving position, and raining down impressive ground and pound which has resulted in several TKO victories, and a few rear naked chokes when guys get tired of getting hit in the face. The one thing that has brought Gian down a bit in the past is his gas tank - which I know for certain will be improved for this fight. Villante was also likely to have been on TUF had they done a LHW season a year ago after he tried out. They ended up going with Middleweight that season and Gian returned to ROC.

This fight is the perfect opportunity for Villante to introduce himself to the mainstreak MMA world with an impressive showing. This fight couldn't have aligned

itself better for Villante and Strikeforce, as he's taking on a "name" opponent in Chad Griggs who carries with him the stigma of being "the man who beat Bobby

Lashley" - but when we look at how that went down, we know it was probably more of a fluke/discredit to Lashley than it was a feather in Griggs' cap. This

fight is a way to build Gian's name up with a fight against a guy most of the Strikeforce crowd already knows thanks to his previous win, but also a guy who

realistically was brought in to pad Lashley's record which ultimately backfired - and Strikeforce knows this. I look for Villante to come out strong, hurt Griggs

early until he eventually brings Griggs down and finishes him either via TKO or a RNC in the first round. If Villante finds himself losing the standup battle early

he'll have no probably overpowering Griggs with a takedown and putting himself in a more comfortable position on the ground to work his ground and pound.

I'm not in love with the line - which actually opened (for about 2 minutes) at Villante +120, quickly got bet to -115/-115 and like a runaway train, has ballooned up to -240 since then - and rightfully so, because who the hell wants to lay -240 or anyone. I'd like to say hold off on betting Villante because MAYBE the public will come strolling in closer to Saturday with the "Hey, I've heard of Chad Griggs, he's at a + number?! Let me bet him" mentality which could maybe swing the line back in our favor...but truthfully, I don't know that this will happen. I believe Villante belongs in the -400 and up range, and regardless of any "value" I see in this current line, I believe he wins this fight with ease.

Here's an excellent video highlighting some of Villante's best moments inside the ring so far in his career http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYj8H0QkBx4

Wow bud, that was thorough. I will join and be in for a lot as well, so high hopes for Gian to avoid any "Octagon jitters" and dismantle Griggs in a hurry. I hope to look around for some props for him or something, I see the line is already bet to -170 for under 1 round

 

[Sebowski]

I'm rolling with you too, sheer. Pretty sizable by my standards. Hate betting on big favorites, but if you're that confident that works for me.

 

[Bobcat10]

Nice post on Gian.

Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

 

[modogg]

Nice post on Gian.Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

i got a little bit. the Strikeforce undercards are certainly something i need to brush up on, but i tried a few parlays with Gian and Del Rosario. i will probably have a little on Sefo. Also have some on arlovski and Fedor wins by decision +350

 

[Bobcat10]

Nice post on Gian.Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

i got a little bit. the Strikeforce undercards are certainly something i need to brush up on, but i tried a few parlays with Gian and Del Rosario. i will probably have a little on Sefo. Also have some on arlovski and Fedor wins by decision +350

I've got some with Gian and Fedor.Del Rosario seems like a safe play in parlays too.I read an article yesterday that picked all the favorites to win (main card only). I really thought they had some good points about why, although I wouldn't know enough about guys like Sefo/Johnson to discount that. I'm interested in what people think about the Arlovski/Kharitonov match. We all know how Andrei has looked lately....is he going to be super motivated for this? Does that even matter? I see Sergei ending this this halfway through the first more than I see Andrei taking it at any point or in a decision.

 

[Sebowski]

Nice post on Gian.

Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

i got a little bit. the Strikeforce undercards are certainly something i need to brush up on, but i tried a few parlays with Gian and Del Rosario. i will probably have a little on Sefo. Also have some on arlovski and Fedor wins by decision +350

I've got some with Gian and Fedor.Del Rosario seems like a safe play in parlays too.

I read an article yesterday that picked all the favorites to win (main card only). I really thought they had some good points about why, although I wouldn't know enough about guys like Sefo/Johnson to discount that. I'm interested in what people think about the Arlovski/Kharitonov match. We all know how Andrei has looked lately....is he going to be super motivated for this? Does that even matter? I see Sergei ending this this halfway through the first more than I see Andrei taking it at any point or in a decision.

Yes he is. He is training with Greg Jackson and sounds very motivated. There is an article up on Sherdog about it. Jackson will also corner him for the first time. I see that fight as a pick 'em, and am staying away. Excited about watching it.

 

[modogg]

Nice post on Gian.

Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

i got a little bit. the Strikeforce undercards are certainly something i need to brush up on, but i tried a few parlays with Gian and Del Rosario. i will probably have a little on Sefo. Also have some on arlovski and Fedor wins by decision +350

I've got some with Gian and Fedor.Del Rosario seems like a safe play in parlays too.

I read an article yesterday that picked all the favorites to win (main card only). I really thought they had some good points about why, although I wouldn't know enough about guys like Sefo/Johnson to discount that. I'm interested in what people think about the Arlovski/Kharitonov match. We all know how Andrei has looked lately....is he going to be super motivated for this? Does that even matter? I see Sergei ending this this halfway through the first more than I see Andrei taking it at any point or in a decision.

Yes he is. He is training with Greg Jackson and sounds very motivated. There is an article up on Sherdog about it. Jackson will also corner him for the first time. I see that fight as a pick 'em, and am staying away. Excited about watching it.

yup, those are my thoughts on Arlovski. he has been working a lot with Rashad and Jon Jones for i belive close to a year at this point. you could see some difference in his last fight , but he should do well here

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Nice post on Gian.

Anyone have anything on the rest of the card? I won't hold you to that standard lol...

i got a little bit. the Strikeforce undercards are certainly something i need to brush up on, but i tried a few parlays with Gian and Del Rosario. i will probably have a little on Sefo. Also have some on arlovski and Fedor wins by decision +350

I've got some with Gian and Fedor.Del Rosario seems like a safe play in parlays too.

I read an article yesterday that picked all the favorites to win (main card only). I really thought they had some good points about why, although I wouldn't know enough about guys like Sefo/Johnson to discount that. I'm interested in what people think about the Arlovski/Kharitonov match. We all know how Andrei has looked lately....is he going to be super motivated for this? Does that even matter? I see Sergei ending this this halfway through the first more than I see Andrei taking it at any point or in a decision.

Yes he is. He is training with Greg Jackson and sounds very motivated. There is an article up on Sherdog about it. Jackson will also corner him for the first time. I see that fight as a pick 'em, and am staying away. Excited about watching it.

yup, those are my thoughts on Arlovski. he has been working a lot with Rashad and Jon Jones for i belive close to a year at this point. you could see some difference in his last fight , but he should do well here

While it is good to see him putting full effort into his training, I doubt that Jackson has a remedy for a glass chin.