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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (9 Viewers)

I will never again bet against BJ at 155 :loco: that was most impressive. wish i would've followed through on that MIR bet with a bit more $$$ :scared:

 
Mir won that fight fight on his feet. Great punch. Really impressive. I still want to see him fight Cain, Carwin or a Staff-less Nog before he thinks about a title. I ended up doing very well with this:
I took Belcher at -120Heavy parlay on BJ, Fitch, and BelcherTiny Parlay on Guida and Kongo
Glad I kept it small on the underdog parlay. It is easy to talk yourself into increasing those.
I'm salivating at the opportunity to make back what I lost on Nog the first time he fought Mir if they were ever to have a rematch.
I'm going to stay away from that one. The staf infection really hurt Nog, but Mir has improved since then too. If one is a decent underdog I'll probably go that way.
 
Mir won that fight fight on his feet. Great punch. Really impressive. I still want to see him fight Cain, Carwin or a Staff-less Nog before he thinks about a title. I ended up doing very well with this:
I took Belcher at -120Heavy parlay on BJ, Fitch, and BelcherTiny Parlay on Guida and Kongo
Glad I kept it small on the underdog parlay. It is easy to talk yourself into increasing those.
I'm salivating at the opportunity to make back what I lost on Nog the first time he fought Mir if they were ever to have a rematch.
I'm going to stay away from that one. The staf infection really hurt Nog, but Mir has improved since then too. If one is a decent underdog I'll probably go that way.
We'll see if it even happens, and then we can definitely break it down further but I don't think Mir has done anything to prove he's on Nog's level in any aspect of the game. I can see this one being a -150/+120 type of line with Nog opening as the favorite, in which case I would likely hammer the crap out of (assuming Nog's smart enough to not fight this time around if he gets sick/injured while training.)
 
lines came out for the WEC event and Strikeforce event. I only looked at them briefly, but grabbed 2 right away:

Thomson -115 over Melendez

Hordecki +160 over Njokuani

I like Njokuani quite a bit, but that line seems to me to be really off.

 
@ -265 I think there is value on Jacare' over Lindland.
good call. i thought so too, but i was pissed at this line. i thought it would be more value, but the line setters weren't swayed by Lindland's name. i do think back to Lindland being somewhat game with Fedor (at least for a few minutes), and Mayhem looked to have the advantage over Jacare' for the limited time that fight lasted. But i think this is also over-thinking it, and Jacare wins this 90% of the time.
 
@ -265 I think there is value on Jacare' over Lindland.
good call. i thought so too, but i was pissed at this line. i thought it would be more value, but the line setters weren't swayed by Lindland's name. i do think back to Lindland being somewhat game with Fedor (at least for a few minutes), and Mayhem looked to have the advantage over Jacare' for the limited time that fight lasted. But i think this is also over-thinking it, and Jacare wins this 90% of the time.
The Mayhem rematch was only about 2 minutes of a stalemate and I think Jacare cut Miller's forehead during that. The only way I see Jacare' losing is if he either caught by something fluky, like the Mousassi upkick, or Lindland wins an incredibly boring 3 round decision. Especially with no elbows to the head on the ground in Strikeforce, Jacare' should dominate if the fight gets the floor. Both guys have poor standup, and Lindland's best chance is to keep the fight standing. Jacare' is a good wrestler but not quite as good as Lindland, so I can see him pulling guard to get the fight on the ground. The ground game in this fight would be similar to Big Nog vs Couture. Lindland's ground is similar to Couture but Jacare's BJJ is on another level compared to Nog.
 
@ -265 I think there is value on Jacare' over Lindland.
good call. i thought so too, but i was pissed at this line. i thought it would be more value, but the line setters weren't swayed by Lindland's name. i do think back to Lindland being somewhat game with Fedor (at least for a few minutes), and Mayhem looked to have the advantage over Jacare' for the limited time that fight lasted. But i think this is also over-thinking it, and Jacare wins this 90% of the time.
The Mayhem rematch was only about 2 minutes of a stalemate and I think Jacare cut Miller's forehead during that. The only way I see Jacare' losing is if he either caught by something fluky, like the Mousassi upkick, or Lindland wins an incredibly boring 3 round decision. Especially with no elbows to the head on the ground in Strikeforce, Jacare' should dominate if the fight gets the floor. Both guys have poor standup, and Lindland's best chance is to keep the fight standing. Jacare' is a good wrestler but not quite as good as Lindland, so I can see him pulling guard to get the fight on the ground. The ground game in this fight would be similar to Big Nog vs Couture. Lindland's ground is similar to Couture but Jacare's BJJ is on another level compared to Nog.
my bigger bets of the night are Jacare and Benevidez. Also grabbed Whitehead and Scott Smith for light plays because their lines are crazy off (got Whitehead +500 and Smith +300), and will load more on to "The Punk" (Josh Thompson) if these work out pretty well (i.e. i don't go 0-4)
 
my bigger bets of the night are Jacare and Benevidez. Also grabbed Whitehead and Scott Smith for light plays because their lines are crazy off (got Whitehead +500 and Smith +300), and will load more on to "The Punk" (Josh Thompson) if these work out pretty well (i.e. i don't go 0-4)
Whitehead blows, maybe King Mo at -800 was correct :lol:at least Jacare' looks in full control of this one
 
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Great Round 3 KO again by Scott Smith after getting absolutely manhandled for 2.5 rounds by Cung Le.

 
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Great Round 3 KO again by Scott Smith after getting absolutely manhandled for 2.5 rounds by Cung Le.
Yeah it was. That guy will always have a career and should have almost all of his fights on TV. I still like the Pete Sell-Scott Smith fight more, but that was an amazing comeback. as for UFC 102 this weekend, i have some picks in:

Rashad -225 over Thiago Silva - about 3 units

Kampmann -200 over Volkmann - about 2 units

Yvel +230 over Dos Santos - about .66 units

I may add a little more here or there when it gets closer, but i think it is a good start

 
Any other UFC 108 or NYE thoughts?

I like Mach Sakurai @ -175 but nothing else on that card.

For the UFC, not sure how I feel on Evans-Silva. Rashad doesn't pressure guys so I don't think he'll take advantage of Thiago's questionable cardio, but I don't Thiago being able to use one of his best assets, his top position grappling. I guess I like Thiago at +180, but I fear Evans' will be able to catch onto his rhythm and land a big right or a double leg and finish him in the 2nd.

 
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yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :thumbup:

 
the first several fights were snoozers but it got better later into the card.

Minowa at +250 over Sokoudjou doesn't seem like a terrible idea to me.
:goodposting:Gaygaurd demolishes Goodridge, as expected. and dear lord, I thought I hated Aoki before last night. Now he may have just bumped Dirty Diego for my most hated. What a POS. :lmao: Last nights spectacle after he cries and takes timeouts for phantom eye pokes and nutshots. I wish he'd grow a pair and let BJP kick the #### out of him at 155 over here.
 
yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :jawdrop:
WOW, never seen so much fluff/dead time between fights before!! And what the hell was the guy and posse in wigs???
 
yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :jawdrop:
WOW, never seen so much fluff/dead time between fights before!! And what the hell was the guy and posse in wigs???
didn't even stop to watch -- I've learned my lesson with previous Dream / Sengoku cards.... Just FFwd from ending bell to opening bell of next fight
 
yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :blackdot:
WOW, never seen so much fluff/dead time between fights before!! And what the hell was the guy and posse in wigs???
didn't even stop to watch -- I've learned my lesson with previous Dream / Sengoku cards.... Just FFwd from ending bell to opening bell of next fight
The Aoki guy busted the guys arm then flipped him off??>? WTF??
 
and dear lord, I thought I hated Aoki before last night. Now he may have just bumped Dirty Diego for my most hated. What a POS. :D Last nights spectacle after he cries and takes timeouts for phantom eye pokes and nutshots. I wish he'd grow a pair and let BJP kick the #### out of him at 155 over here.
:pickle: Would love to see that, but it will never happen.
 
zander_s said:
AhrnCityPahnder said:
zander_s said:
yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :thumbup:
WOW, never seen so much fluff/dead time between fights before!! And what the hell was the guy and posse in wigs???
didn't even stop to watch -- I've learned my lesson with previous Dream / Sengoku cards.... Just FFwd from ending bell to opening bell of next fight
The Aoki guy busted the guys arm then flipped him off??>? WTF??
his corner, and his organization.
 
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zander_s said:
AhrnCityPahnder said:
zander_s said:
yeah, the bad side of that is making room for 8 hours of HD on your DVR -- it's like 25% of the disk space. You almost have to DVR them....these cards live are terrible with time management. Typically ~ 20-30 mins between each fight. :lmao:
WOW, never seen so much fluff/dead time between fights before!! And what the hell was the guy and posse in wigs???
didn't even stop to watch -- I've learned my lesson with previous Dream / Sengoku cards.... Just FFwd from ending bell to opening bell of next fight
The Aoki guy busted the guys arm then flipped him off??>? WTF??
his corner, and his organization.
I heard the fans too. I missed DVR'ing it, but heard all about it. I had some money on Manhoef, so that was nice. Pissed though because i went to put a little on Kanahera and Minowa (good call AhrnCity) and i missed them because of the stupid time differences again. One of these days i will figure out what time the japanese events start here in the USand i think tonight's UFC 108 will be a good card. One of those surprises that people think will suck, but will have mostly all good fights. I have a variety of picks out there, but mostly:EvansKampmannYveland less on Ellenberger Ludwigand am contemplating a little on Stout)
 
No UFC 108 thread? Still time to jinx it with a couple last-minute injuries!

My picks:

Evans

Hazelett

Lauzon

Miller

Dos Santos

Kampmann

Miller

Munoz

Ellenberger

Oliveira

Thiago has knockout power, but he's a bit of a sloppy striker and his chin worries me. I'm sure he could make something happen, but Rashad seems like the safer call. Given Daley's ground game, Hazelett will win by flying gogoplata or something (unless he's silly enough to keep it standing like Kampmann). J-Lau's far more well-rounded than Stout, and his chances of winning it on the ground look real good. Similarly, I think Miller's grappling is sharper than Ludwig's, and he should turn it into a ground battle. Dos Santos/Yvel is the most interesting fight on the card for me. Dos Santos and Yvel are both really dangerous strikers, but Yvel's ground game is nonexistent, while Dos Santos trains with the Nogueiras, and they say he can more than hold his own on the ground. "Coachspeak" or not, it might be smart for Dos Santos to try to take it to the ground if he can, but I have him winning it regardless of where the fight takes place. I just think he's the more polished fighter, though Yvel has the edge in experience.

 
No UFC 108 thread? Still time to jinx it with a couple last-minute injuries!My picks:EvansHazelettLauzonMillerDos SantosKampmannMillerMunozEllenbergerOliveiraThiago has knockout power, but he's a bit of a sloppy striker and his chin worries me. I'm sure he could make something happen, but Rashad seems like the safer call. Given Daley's ground game, Hazelett will win by flying gogoplata or something (unless he's silly enough to keep it standing like Kampmann). J-Lau's far more well-rounded than Stout, and his chances of winning it on the ground look real good. Similarly, I think Miller's grappling is sharper than Ludwig's, and he should turn it into a ground battle. Dos Santos/Yvel is the most interesting fight on the card for me. Dos Santos and Yvel are both really dangerous strikers, but Yvel's ground game is nonexistent, while Dos Santos trains with the Nogueiras, and they say he can more than hold his own on the ground. "Coachspeak" or not, it might be smart for Dos Santos to try to take it to the ground if he can, but I have him winning it regardless of where the fight takes place. I just think he's the more polished fighter, though Yvel has the edge in experience.
It should be a good card. The only potential snoozer i think (and i am not even sure this is on the main card) is Miller-Ludwig, because i could see Miller try and keep Ludwig pinned to the ground for most of the fight. and the only one i see a little different then you is the J-Lau-Stout fight. all things considered, J-Lau would dominate this fight, but i am pretty sure he hasn't fought in over a year. Stout has some solid stand-up, but now that i think about it, it is more crisp then power, so J-Lau should survive it. i have convinced myself to order the card because it should be an exciting one, so we will see.EDIT: and i read a funny one about thecurse with this card. Apparently the injury bug has gotten so bad, that even Joe Silva got injured. He messed up his MCL i believe and will be hobbling all around tonight.
 
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did anybody else look at these lines throughout the week? the line movement was pretty insane, numbers moved a lot. i don't remember ever seeing such heavy movement, and i can't imagine this card got this much attention, i wonder if the books are over sensitive with these or what? it was strange.

and yikes, that was a devastating choke on the prelims.

 
I heard the fans too. I missed DVR'ing it, but heard all about it. I had some money on Manhoef, so that was nice. Pissed though because i went to put a little on Kanahera and Minowa (good call AhrnCity) and i missed them because of the stupid time differences again. One of these days i will figure out what time the japanese events start here in the US

and i think tonight's UFC 108 will be a good card. One of those surprises that people think will suck, but will have mostly all good fights. I have a variety of picks out there, but mostly:

Evans

Kampmann

Yvel

and less on

Ellenberger

Ludwig

and am contemplating a little on Stout)
Should have added more to Stout and kicked Ludwig out of the equation. Fell bad for Joe, i thought the ring rust would make a difference, but man not that bad. I hope Sam Stout continues to grow from this one, i always liked him.
 
I LOVE Henderson at +115 against Varner tomorrow night.

Varner will not be able to hang with Henderson's pace for 5 rounds after being off over a year from various injuries.

Making that my only play for the next two nights.

 
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No real good place to put this, so it gos here.

:lmao:

http://twitter.com/SI_JoshGross/

For DirecTV subscribers concerned they'll miss UFC on Versus (Jones-Vera, Gonzaga-dos Santos) I'm told a resolution is expected by March.
Was supposed to be settled already, so I'll reserve my :lmao: for now.
Pretty sure that will be the icing on the cake if they do not reach an agreement by then. Vs. seems to have some ground to stand on with the UFC saying they will hold a few cards a year on Vs. Funny, because the UFC can go to any cable channel they want, and will improve the ratings there
 
Seriously DirecTV and Versus, get it together by March 21st:

Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera

Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

John Howard vs. Anthony Johnson

Clay Guida vs. Sean Sherk

 
Seriously DirecTV and Versus, get it together by March 21st:

Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera

Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

John Howard vs. Anthony Johnson

Clay Guida vs. Sean Sherk
man, that fight is just going to be a blur of action.
i think we will begin to see the effects of the previous cards being hurt by injuries. 112 looks pretty sick, same with 111. Lot of good cards coming up.
 
Since there is another week or so before we get more MMA, let me show everyone the future of MMA:

http://www.cagepotato.com/tag-team-mma-pro...ot-future-sport

There is comparable ideas toward the end of that article, with the XArm Championships (i believe this is arm wrestling with the added challenge of allowing competitors to punch eachother in the face). Who in the world thinks these are good ideas, and would put any money at all into this?

the XArm championships:

http://www.cagepotato.com/2008/11/19/xarm-...e-about-society

 
I've got a small play on Lawler at +155 tonight. Don't like any of the other lines. I read Nagy was +550, but my site has him at +250. Starting think that 550 was a publicity stunt.

 

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