UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (8 Viewers)

[Tremendous Upside]

If Lawler tried to get Manhoef down he'd have a real chance, but all the interviews beforehand indicate he's going to stand and bang, which is a mistake

Have to admit, I am intrigued by seeing Herschel Walker here, even if it is an "insult to MMA" as some apparently feel

Hieron/Riggs, which should be an excellent fight and should be televised, will be aired on the web at EAsportsmma.com

Webcast starts at 9, not sure when that fight comes on

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Have to admit, I am intrigued by seeing Herschel Walker here, even if it is an "insult to MMA" as some apparently feel

I see both sides of the argument. On one side -- if he's serious about it and training correctly, why not?On the other side, this is lose-lose for MMA as a sport. If he loses tonight, To non educated fans, this is just a step removed from celebrity boxing. If he wins tonight, what does it say about a sport that a 47 year old newbie can come in and beat a fighter who's likely been doing this for a long time?Having said all of that, I do want to see him fight too.

 

[sheerterror]

Forgot about this thread. Here's my post from the general wagering thread a few hours ago:

Some Strikeforce thoughts for tonight:

I'm on Melvin Manhoef pretty heavy over Robbie Lawler. Got in on this at -170, and the line has crept up a bit but I still think there's some tremendous value. Manhoef has some pretty sickening punching power and happens to be matched up against a guy who has the habit of standing and banging with people because he tends to have a striking advantage...not the case in this fight. Manhoef outlcasses Lawler standing both in power and technique, and if Robbie tries to trade (he's said recently that he plans on standing and banging - but take it with a grain of salt) he's likely going to get highlight reel KO'd. Lawler's got a significant grappling advantage on Manhoef but I believe that 1) Lawler isn't smart enough to try to take it there given his tendency to not gameplan particularly well in fights and 2) Lawler would struggle to take Melvin down, and even if he did, he'd have trouble keeping him on the ground. This is one of those don't blink fights, as it'll likely be over in a flash. I like Melvin by decapitation in the first round to win 2.5 units.

Big fan of Jay Hieron's. He's a very solid, well rounded fighter that should have had a title shot against Nick Diaz in the welterweight division over the summer, but due to Diaz's refusal to take a drug test, Hieron ended up fighting scrub Jesse Taylor on the undercard. Now he gets stuck on the undercard tonight because of Strikeforce's insistance to televise sideshow fights with Bobby Lashley and Hershel Walker. He takes on mediocre veteran Joe Riggs who couldn't even finish Phil Baroni in his last fight despite the fact that Baroni was gassed out for the last roughly 13 minutes of the fight. Not a ton of value in Hieron's current line of around -300, but I still believe he warrants a small play.

In the main event of the night, I'll be backing Nick Diaz. As much as I hate him and his brother Nate, it's hard to deny their talents. Diaz has that annoying pawing style of striking where he uses his reach advantage to repeatedly tag his opponent with quick little shots that tend to accumulat quite a bit of damage of the course of entire fights. Despite his repuation as a pothead, Nick's got pretty good endurance, which is sure to favor him in a 5 round title fight, especially against a guy like Marius Zaromiskis who tends to tire out early in fights while looking for quick finishes. I believe Zaromski's only clear path to victory in this fight is with one of those famous high kicks he's used to end his last 3 fights. Diaz has a very, very solid chin, and provided he can avoid that homerun shot, I believe Nick outlcasses Zaromskis in every other facet of the game. I'm on Nick for 1.5u.

Really sucks that books are starting to really inflate MMA lines big time. All 3 of these favorites that I'm backing certainly warrant being pretty large favorites, but probably not exactly at the prices they are at (less Manhoef, who I think still holds value up to around -250.) I've probably got more exposed on this card than I should, but I'm pretty confident in these 3 favorites based on how I expect the fights to play out. I think a nice way to get some action on all 3 if you don't like laying this kind of juice (which comes with the territory of betting MMA) is parlaying all 3 for a decent price of around +190 at Betus.

 

[kutta]

Well it looks like the wife and I are going to be attending UFC 109 in Vegas. She's a huge Couture fan, so she's really looking forward to it.

Looks like a pretty good card, but I generally don't bet on UFC. Does anyone see any standouts on this card that I could put some money on?

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Well it looks like the wife and I are going to be attending UFC 109 in Vegas. She's a huge Couture fan, so she's really looking forward to it.Looks like a pretty good card, but I generally don't bet on UFC. Does anyone see any standouts on this card that I could put some money on?

Not all of the lines are in yet. For the ones that are, Matt Serra at -160 over Frank Trigg seems like smart money to me.

 

[kutta]

Well it looks like the wife and I are going to be attending UFC 109 in Vegas. She's a huge Couture fan, so she's really looking forward to it.Looks like a pretty good card, but I generally don't bet on UFC. Does anyone see any standouts on this card that I could put some money on?

Not all of the lines are in yet. For the ones that are, Matt Serra at -160 over Frank Trigg seems like smart money to me.

Oof. You had to pick that fight, didn't you? Serra is my wife's least favorite fighter, and there is no way I could even bet a penny on him. She'd probably divorce me right then and there.Any other brilliant ideas?

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

The only other lines I see are are for Couture/Coleman and Koscheck/Thiago, and both Kos and Randy are heavy favorites, and I expect both to win. with both at -500, not much value in either of them.

edit: Old Lines. I'm a #######.

 

[kutta]

The only other lines I see are are for Couture/Coleman and Koscheck/Thiago, and both Kos and Randy are heavy favorites, and I expect both to win. with both at -500, not much value in either of them.

Ok. Thanks. Let me know if you see something that looks good later in the week.BTW, it looks like Swick is taking Koscheck's place on the card.

 

[zander_s]

Forgot about this thread. Here's my post from the general wagering thread a few hours ago:

Some Strikeforce thoughts for tonight:

I'm on Melvin Manhoef pretty heavy over Robbie Lawler. Got in on this at -170, and the line has crept up a bit but I still think there's some tremendous value. Manhoef has some pretty sickening punching power and happens to be matched up against a guy who has the habit of standing and banging with people because he tends to have a striking advantage...not the case in this fight. Manhoef outlcasses Lawler standing both in power and technique, and if Robbie tries to trade (he's said recently that he plans on standing and banging - but take it with a grain of salt) he's likely going to get highlight reel KO'd. Lawler's got a significant grappling advantage on Manhoef but I believe that 1) Lawler isn't smart enough to try to take it there given his tendency to not gameplan particularly well in fights and 2) Lawler would struggle to take Melvin down, and even if he did, he'd have trouble keeping him on the ground. This is one of those don't blink fights, as it'll likely be over in a flash. I like Melvin by decapitation in the first round to win 2.5 units.

Big fan of Jay Hieron's. He's a very solid, well rounded fighter that should have had a title shot against Nick Diaz in the welterweight division over the summer, but due to Diaz's refusal to take a drug test, Hieron ended up fighting scrub Jesse Taylor on the undercard. Now he gets stuck on the undercard tonight because of Strikeforce's insistance to televise sideshow fights with Bobby Lashley and Hershel Walker. He takes on mediocre veteran Joe Riggs who couldn't even finish Phil Baroni in his last fight despite the fact that Baroni was gassed out for the last roughly 13 minutes of the fight. Not a ton of value in Hieron's current line of around -300, but I still believe he warrants a small play.

In the main event of the night, I'll be backing Nick Diaz. As much as I hate him and his brother Nate, it's hard to deny their talents. Diaz has that annoying pawing style of striking where he uses his reach advantage to repeatedly tag his opponent with quick little shots that tend to accumulat quite a bit of damage of the course of entire fights. Despite his repuation as a pothead, Nick's got pretty good endurance, which is sure to favor him in a 5 round title fight, especially against a guy like Marius Zaromiskis who tends to tire out early in fights while looking for quick finishes. I believe Zaromski's only clear path to victory in this fight is with one of those famous high kicks he's used to end his last 3 fights. Diaz has a very, very solid chin, and provided he can avoid that homerun shot, I believe Nick outlcasses Zaromskis in every other facet of the game. I'm on Nick for 1.5u.

Really sucks that books are starting to really inflate MMA lines big time. All 3 of these favorites that I'm backing certainly warrant being pretty large favorites, but probably not exactly at the prices they are at (less Manhoef, who I think still holds value up to around -250.) I've probably got more exposed on this card than I should, but I'm pretty confident in these 3 favorites based on how I expect the fights to play out. I think a nice way to get some action on all 3 if you don't like laying this kind of juice (which comes with the territory of betting MMA) is parlaying all 3 for a decent price of around +190 at Betus.

Exactly what i did. Nice write up, i agree with all three picks.

 

[Abrantes]

Some Strikeforce thoughts for tonight:I'm on Melvin Manhoef pretty heavy over Robbie Lawler. Got in on this at -170, and the line has crept up a bit but I still think there's some tremendous value. Manhoef has some pretty sickening punching power and happens to be matched up against a guy who has the habit of standing and banging with people because he tends to have a striking advantage...not the case in this fight. Manhoef outlcasses Lawler standing both in power and technique, and if Robbie tries to trade (he's said recently that he plans on standing and banging - but take it with a grain of salt) he's likely going to get highlight reel KO'd. Lawler's got a significant grappling advantage on Manhoef but I believe that 1) Lawler isn't smart enough to try to take it there given his tendency to not gameplan particularly well in fights and 2) Lawler would struggle to take Melvin down, and even if he did, he'd have trouble keeping him on the ground. This is one of those don't blink fights, as it'll likely be over in a flash. I like Melvin by decapitation in the first round to win 2.5 units.Big fan of Jay Hieron's. He's a very solid, well rounded fighter that should have had a title shot against Nick Diaz in the welterweight division over the summer, but due to Diaz's refusal to take a drug test, Hieron ended up fighting scrub Jesse Taylor on the undercard. Now he gets stuck on the undercard tonight because of Strikeforce's insistance to televise sideshow fights with Bobby Lashley and Hershel Walker. He takes on mediocre veteran Joe Riggs who couldn't even finish Phil Baroni in his last fight despite the fact that Baroni was gassed out for the last roughly 13 minutes of the fight. Not a ton of value in Hieron's current line of around -300, but I still believe he warrants a small play.In the main event of the night, I'll be backing Nick Diaz. As much as I hate him and his brother Nate, it's hard to deny their talents. Diaz has that annoying pawing style of striking where he uses his reach advantage to repeatedly tag his opponent with quick little shots that tend to accumulat quite a bit of damage of the course of entire fights. Despite his repuation as a pothead, Nick's got pretty good endurance, which is sure to favor him in a 5 round title fight, especially against a guy like Marius Zaromiskis who tends to tire out early in fights while looking for quick finishes. I believe Zaromski's only clear path to victory in this fight is with one of those famous high kicks he's used to end his last 3 fights. Diaz has a very, very solid chin, and provided he can avoid that homerun shot, I believe Nick outlcasses Zaromskis in every other facet of the game. I'm on Nick for 1.5u.Really sucks that books are starting to really inflate MMA lines big time. All 3 of these favorites that I'm backing certainly warrant being pretty large favorites, but probably not exactly at the prices they are at (less Manhoef, who I think still holds value up to around -250.) I've probably got more exposed on this card than I should, but I'm pretty confident in these 3 favorites based on how I expect the fights to play out. I think a nice way to get some action on all 3 if you don't like laying this kind of juice (which comes with the territory of betting MMA) is parlaying all 3 for a decent price of around +190 at Betus.

Nice read, but I think you underestimate Lawler quite a bit. Manhoef has the clear edge in pure punching power and explosiveness, but plain and simple, I think Lawler's a far smarter striker, and I don't think Manhoef's actual technique is that great either (particularly in terms of footwork and judging distance). If Manhoef really wanted to, he could probably chop Lawler down all day with leg kicks, but i doubt he goes that route. If Lawler weathers the inevitable early storm, I think he's more than capable of winning it standing or on the ground. I'd love to see Lawler KTFO'd, but I'm thinking he pulls this one out.Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

####, I was looking at a post that was a month old for lines. I was thinking that 109 was still 2 PPVs away.

Here's what I see:

Maia -500

D Miller +325

Marquardt -525

Sonnen +325

Couture -550

Coleman +350

Serra -155

Trigg +125

If you're feeling brave you could try D Miller with the upset....I like his chances better than Colemans or Sonnens. Or Maybe you can see what youd get on a Couture / Marquardt parlay.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.

His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over.

I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Some Strikeforce thoughts for tonight:I'm on Melvin Manhoef pretty heavy over Robbie Lawler. Got in on this at -170, and the line has crept up a bit but I still think there's some tremendous value. Manhoef has some pretty sickening punching power and happens to be matched up against a guy who has the habit of standing and banging with people because he tends to have a striking advantage...not the case in this fight. Manhoef outlcasses Lawler standing both in power and technique, and if Robbie tries to trade (he's said recently that he plans on standing and banging - but take it with a grain of salt) he's likely going to get highlight reel KO'd. Lawler's got a significant grappling advantage on Manhoef but I believe that 1) Lawler isn't smart enough to try to take it there given his tendency to not gameplan particularly well in fights and 2) Lawler would struggle to take Melvin down, and even if he did, he'd have trouble keeping him on the ground. This is one of those don't blink fights, as it'll likely be over in a flash. I like Melvin by decapitation in the first round to win 2.5 units.Big fan of Jay Hieron's. He's a very solid, well rounded fighter that should have had a title shot against Nick Diaz in the welterweight division over the summer, but due to Diaz's refusal to take a drug test, Hieron ended up fighting scrub Jesse Taylor on the undercard. Now he gets stuck on the undercard tonight because of Strikeforce's insistance to televise sideshow fights with Bobby Lashley and Hershel Walker. He takes on mediocre veteran Joe Riggs who couldn't even finish Phil Baroni in his last fight despite the fact that Baroni was gassed out for the last roughly 13 minutes of the fight. Not a ton of value in Hieron's current line of around -300, but I still believe he warrants a small play.In the main event of the night, I'll be backing Nick Diaz. As much as I hate him and his brother Nate, it's hard to deny their talents. Diaz has that annoying pawing style of striking where he uses his reach advantage to repeatedly tag his opponent with quick little shots that tend to accumulat quite a bit of damage of the course of entire fights. Despite his repuation as a pothead, Nick's got pretty good endurance, which is sure to favor him in a 5 round title fight, especially against a guy like Marius Zaromiskis who tends to tire out early in fights while looking for quick finishes. I believe Zaromski's only clear path to victory in this fight is with one of those famous high kicks he's used to end his last 3 fights. Diaz has a very, very solid chin, and provided he can avoid that homerun shot, I believe Nick outlcasses Zaromskis in every other facet of the game. I'm on Nick for 1.5u.Really sucks that books are starting to really inflate MMA lines big time. All 3 of these favorites that I'm backing certainly warrant being pretty large favorites, but probably not exactly at the prices they are at (less Manhoef, who I think still holds value up to around -250.) I've probably got more exposed on this card than I should, but I'm pretty confident in these 3 favorites based on how I expect the fights to play out. I think a nice way to get some action on all 3 if you don't like laying this kind of juice (which comes with the territory of betting MMA) is parlaying all 3 for a decent price of around +190 at Betus.

Nice read, but I think you underestimate Lawler quite a bit. Manhoef has the clear edge in pure punching power and explosiveness, but plain and simple, I think Lawler's a far smarter striker, and I don't think Manhoef's actual technique is that great either (particularly in terms of footwork and judging distance). If Manhoef really wanted to, he could probably chop Lawler down all day with leg kicks, but i doubt he goes that route. If Lawler weathers the inevitable early storm, I think he's more than capable of winning it standing or on the ground. I'd love to see Lawler KTFO'd, but I'm thinking he pulls this one out.Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

Lawler's not great at striking from range, which would be his only advantage striking against Melvin, due to Melvin's poor reach. Lawler really hasn't put people away early in fights and the longer the fight goes, I have a hard time seeing Lawler avoid Melvin's power.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Sonnen may be a better pure wrestler than NM is, but NM is a BJJ blackbelt and a Pancrase champion. At best for Sonnen, I see the grappling game being a wash, and Marquardt outshines him in striking and in submissions. I wouldn't go near Sonnen.

 

[Abrantes]

Some Strikeforce thoughts for tonight:I'm on Melvin Manhoef pretty heavy over Robbie Lawler. Got in on this at -170, and the line has crept up a bit but I still think there's some tremendous value. Manhoef has some pretty sickening punching power and happens to be matched up against a guy who has the habit of standing and banging with people because he tends to have a striking advantage...not the case in this fight. Manhoef outlcasses Lawler standing both in power and technique, and if Robbie tries to trade (he's said recently that he plans on standing and banging - but take it with a grain of salt) he's likely going to get highlight reel KO'd. Lawler's got a significant grappling advantage on Manhoef but I believe that 1) Lawler isn't smart enough to try to take it there given his tendency to not gameplan particularly well in fights and 2) Lawler would struggle to take Melvin down, and even if he did, he'd have trouble keeping him on the ground. This is one of those don't blink fights, as it'll likely be over in a flash. I like Melvin by decapitation in the first round to win 2.5 units.

Nice read, but I think you underestimate Lawler quite a bit. Manhoef has the clear edge in pure punching power and explosiveness, but plain and simple, I think Lawler's a far smarter striker, and I don't think Manhoef's actual technique is that great either (particularly in terms of footwork and judging distance). If Manhoef really wanted to, he could probably chop Lawler down all day with leg kicks, but i doubt he goes that route. If Lawler weathers the inevitable early storm, I think he's more than capable of winning it standing or on the ground. I'd love to see Lawler KTFO'd, but I'm thinking he pulls this one out.Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

Lawler's not great at striking from range, which would be his only advantage striking against Melvin, due to Melvin's poor reach. Lawler really hasn't put people away early in fights and the longer the fight goes, I have a hard time seeing Lawler avoid Melvin's power.

Really? I think the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Lawler, as Melvin's gas tank is extremely suspect. I'd say Lawler is a patient enough striker to wait for his opportunity.

 

[modogg]

If Lawler tried to get Manhoef down he'd have a real chance, but all the interviews beforehand indicate he's going to stand and bang, which is a mistakeHave to admit, I am intrigued by seeing Herschel Walker here, even if it is an "insult to MMA" as some apparently feelHieron/Riggs, which should be an excellent fight and should be televised, will be aired on the web at EAsportsmma.comWebcast starts at 9, not sure when that fight comes on

I disagree with Robbie. I am a fan of Melvin's, but I have to think Robbie fights this one smart. His loss to Jake Shields was a demonstration of him thinking he could do more then he could, and i think he knows he can't lose 2 in a row like that. I do not think he will stand and bang with melvin at all, he may for a little, but his game plan will be much smarter this time

 

[Abrantes]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Sonnen may be a better pure wrestler than NM is, but NM is a BJJ blackbelt and a Pancrase champion. At best for Sonnen, I see the grappling game being a wash, and Marquardt outshines him in striking and in submissions. I wouldn't go near Sonnen.

Sonnen may have better wrestling credentials, but in terms of functional MMA grappling, it's a pretty even fight. Part of the reason he looked good in his last two fights is that he had sharper striking than his opponents. Since I give Nate a big edge in striking for this one, Chael might be forced to take more chances, which doesn't bode well for him. Nate is just a more well-rounded jack-of-all-trades.I agree that +375 looks great, but I wouldn't go for it.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I've got a small play on Lawler at +155 tonight. Don't like any of the other lines. I read Nagy was +550, but my site has him at +250. Starting think that 550 was a publicity stunt.

Man, GL with that. I'm thinking RL goes to sleep quickly tonight.

Agreed. Manhoef is ferocious.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I doubt Lawler is going to get hit standing and keep his focus on his gameplan. Melvin's wrestling and ability to get up isn't awful, his sub defense, especially out of scrambles, is what is abysmal. Lawler's sub game isn't good either, so I think Melvin can survive being taken down once or twice.

For Lawler to win, he'd have to not get hot headed and try to bang with Melvin for most of the fight. From what I've seen of Robbie, I don't think he'll do that. If he does, Lawler should win though.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Sonnen may be a better pure wrestler than NM is, but NM is a BJJ blackbelt and a Pancrase champion. At best for Sonnen, I see the grappling game being a wash, and Marquardt outshines him in striking and in submissions. I wouldn't go near Sonnen.

Sonnen may have better wrestling credentials, but in terms of functional MMA grappling, it's a pretty even fight. Part of the reason he looked good in his last two fights is that he had sharper striking than his opponents. Since I give Nate a big edge in striking for this one, Chael might be forced to take more chances, which doesn't bode well for him. Nate is just a more well-rounded jack-of-all-trades.I agree that +375 looks great, but I wouldn't go for it.

I agree that, on the whole, NM's grappling is better than Sonnen's. But Nate is best at top position grappling, and if Nate cannot put Sonnen on his back, Nate's bottom game isn't going to win the fight. Perhaps Nate can take advantage of Sonnen's poor sub D, but I think he gets controlled by Sonnen's top game.Perhaps I am being too shortsighted, but I was very impressed with Sonnen's ability to take and hold down Okami and Dan Miller and think if there is a chance he can LnP his way to a decision here.

 

[sheerterror]

Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

This is certainly possible that Showtime is to blame - but Strikeforce has GOT to step in and make sure the Hieron fight is televised. If he wins, he's getting a title shot. This now makes 2 events in a row that Hieron was not on the televised portion of the card - how does Strikeforce honestly think they are going to be able to build their brand and generate interest among casual MMA fans when they are going to have trouble promoting title fights because those casual MMA fans wil have no idea who the challenger is due to him getting stuck on the undercard? At least Zaromskis had some exposure via Dream. I just think they are going about it wrong here.

 

[modogg]

I doubt Lawler is going to get hit standing and keep his focus on his gameplan. Melvin's wrestling and ability to get up isn't awful, his sub defense, especially out of scrambles, is what is abysmal. Lawler's sub game isn't good either, so I think Melvin can survive being taken down once or twice. For Lawler to win, he'd have to not get hot headed and try to bang with Melvin for most of the fight. From what I've seen of Robbie, I don't think he'll do that. If he does, Lawler should win though.

A few things:1. i think the fight between Manhoef and Filho could be an indication of how this fight couold go. Manhoef should have knocked Filho out too, but Filho withstood some damage and got him. Filho has a good chin, but i think Melvin needs more experience. I can see him coming out like a bat out of hell tonight, and Robbie being veteran enough to know that2. Any consideration to the fact that some of these guys are fighting in the US for (i think) the first time? It is not a huge deal, but i have to think it is not that easy to do. Maybe i am wrong though.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

This is certainly possible that Showtime is to blame - but Strikeforce has GOT to step in and make sure the Hieron fight is televised. If he wins, he's getting a title shot. This now makes 2 events in a row that Hieron was not on the televised portion of the card - how does Strikeforce honestly think they are going to be able to build their brand and generate interest among casual MMA fans when they are going to have trouble promoting title fights because those casual MMA fans wil have no idea who the challenger is due to him getting stuck on the undercard? At least Zaromskis had some exposure via Dream. I just think they are going about it wrong here.

Strikeforce is terrible at promoting long term. They seem to be promoting simply card to card, which works well for a regional show, but on the national level it won't cut it. The way they are handling the Cyborg is a great example. They botched the CBS card by not putting Carano - Cyborg on it. It still was the most watched fight in Showtime history, and now the have the winner of the fight on the card and they haven't tried to hype it up. Really, Cyborg - Coenen should be the main event, as Cyborg is probably a bigger draw to casual fans than Diaz and Americans have no idea who Marius Zarmoskis is.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Maia -500D Miller +325Marquardt -525Sonnen +325Couture -550Coleman +350Serra -155Trigg +125If you're feeling brave you could try D Miller with the upset....I like his chances better than Colemans or Sonnens. Or Maybe you can see what youd get on a Couture / Marquardt parlay.

I know Mrs. Kutta hates Serra, but I agree with Ahrn that he's the best play here.For a parlay, I would try Maia and Marquardt as I'd be shocked if either lost.For a dog, I'd go with Coleman. Couture's biggest strength is controlling his opponent with his wrestling, but I could see Coleman being a good enough grappler to nullify that strength. Of course, since Mrs. Kutta is a Couture fanboy, this is probably a no-go as well.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I doubt Lawler is going to get hit standing and keep his focus on his gameplan. Melvin's wrestling and ability to get up isn't awful, his sub defense, especially out of scrambles, is what is abysmal. Lawler's sub game isn't good either, so I think Melvin can survive being taken down once or twice.

For Lawler to win, he'd have to not get hot headed and try to bang with Melvin for most of the fight. From what I've seen of Robbie, I don't think he'll do that. If he does, Lawler should win though.

A few things:1. i think the fight between Manhoef and Filho could be an indication of how this fight couold go. Manhoef should have knocked Filho out too, but Filho withstood some damage and got him. Filho has a good chin, but i think Melvin needs more experience. I can see him coming out like a bat out of hell tonight, and Robbie being veteran enough to know that



2. Any consideration to the fact that some of these guys are fighting in the US for (i think) the first time? It is not a huge deal, but i have to think it is not that easy to do. Maybe i am wrong though.

This is a concern. The cage combined with a PED testing policy is a very, very good point.

 

[modogg]

Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

This is certainly possible that Showtime is to blame - but Strikeforce has GOT to step in and make sure the Hieron fight is televised. If he wins, he's getting a title shot. This now makes 2 events in a row that Hieron was not on the televised portion of the card - how does Strikeforce honestly think they are going to be able to build their brand and generate interest among casual MMA fans when they are going to have trouble promoting title fights because those casual MMA fans wil have no idea who the challenger is due to him getting stuck on the undercard? At least Zaromskis had some exposure via Dream. I just think they are going about it wrong here.

No doubt, but you are giving the people at Showtime too much credit. I agree there is no logical reason not to have the Heiron fight televised, but look at the push to bring Hershel and Lashley on to put on TV. I have to think that may have been some outside influences, and less so from Scott Coker who has built Strikeforce well. It won't break Strikeforce because unlike EliteXC they are not dependent on Lashley and Walker, but if the UFC did this the bashing they would take would be huge. They got detroyed for bringing Lesnar in. I think this is Showtime bringing in the non-MMA crowd to watch this. Look at those folls on PTI, saying they would watch this card because Hershel was on it. So it worked, not good for MMA as a whole, but will help Strikeforce

 

[Clayton Gray]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Meh. I like Sonnen, but Marquardt is FAR above him.

 

[sheerterror]

Side note: I believe Showtime is responsible for determining most of the fights they air, and likely chose Lashley/Sims and the Walker fight for pure freak show potential, so I wouldn't be so quick to blame StrikeForce for that.

This is certainly possible that Showtime is to blame - but Strikeforce has GOT to step in and make sure the Hieron fight is televised. If he wins, he's getting a title shot. This now makes 2 events in a row that Hieron was not on the televised portion of the card - how does Strikeforce honestly think they are going to be able to build their brand and generate interest among casual MMA fans when they are going to have trouble promoting title fights because those casual MMA fans wil have no idea who the challenger is due to him getting stuck on the undercard? At least Zaromskis had some exposure via Dream. I just think they are going about it wrong here.

No doubt, but you are giving the people at Showtime too much credit. I agree there is no logical reason not to have the Heiron fight televised, but look at the push to bring Hershel and Lashley on to put on TV. I have to think that may have been some outside influences, and less so from Scott Coker who has built Strikeforce well. It won't break Strikeforce because unlike EliteXC they are not dependent on Lashley and Walker, but if the UFC did this the bashing they would take would be huge. They got detroyed for bringing Lesnar in. I think this is Showtime bringing in the non-MMA crowd to watch this. Look at those folls on PTI, saying they would watch this card because Hershel was on it. So it worked, not good for MMA as a whole, but will help Strikeforce

No doubt about that - Lashley and Walker will certainly draw non-MMA fans to watch this event - I guess my beef is moreso with them not finding a way to get the Hieron fight on the card as well, given the long(er)term impact that would have on the organization assuming a future title fight.

 

[Abrantes]

I've got a small play on Lawler at +155 tonight. Don't like any of the other lines. I read Nagy was +550, but my site has him at +250. Starting think that 550 was a publicity stunt.

Man, GL with that. I'm thinking RL goes to sleep quickly tonight.

Agreed. Manhoef is ferocious.

Guess I'm in the minority on this one. Lawler all the way.

 

[sheerterror]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Meh. I like Sonnen, but Marquardt is FAR above him.

Sonnen's a solid wrestler, but given Nate's tremendous strength and advantages nearly across the board, I think it's hard to justify a bet on Sonnen. I've been on Marquardt's bandwagon for a while, and I was heartbroken to see the ridiculously inflated line on this fight, as he should not be as big of a favorite as he is - but thank the linesmakers for acknowledging all the talk of "if Marquardt wins, he'll get his rematch with Silva" and forcing us to really pay if we want to back him. That said, I've locked in Marquardt at -350 at Betus which I believe is by far the best price available out there.

 

[modogg]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Meh. I like Sonnen, but Marquardt is FAR above him.

Sonnen's a solid wrestler, but given Nate's tremendous strength and advantages nearly across the board, I think it's hard to justify a bet on Sonnen. I've been on Marquardt's bandwagon for a while, and I was heartbroken to see the ridiculously inflated line on this fight, as he should not be as big of a favorite as he is - but thank the linesmakers for acknowledging all the talk of "if Marquardt wins, he'll get his rematch with Silva" and forcing us to really pay if we want to back him. That said, I've locked in Marquardt at -350 at Betus which I believe is by far the best price available out there.

you also have to consider that Marquardt regularly trains with Rashad and GSP, and I would bet that Rashad and GSP may have better wrestling then Sonnen. I agree the lines they are setting are heart braking, but hopefully they will come back. as for picks for the card, I think Clayton had the best advice. Serra is a good play, and a parlay on Maia and Marquardt should be good to go as well. and Couture-Coleman is such an anomaly, i did not think Coleman would take Bonner when they fought (still did not see the whole fight though).

 

[Clayton Gray]

i did not think Coleman would take Bonner when they fought (still did not see the whole fight though).

Coleman just smothered him. I read an article recently where Bonner had a dream before the fight that he would via spinning back kick. He believed that was an omen and tried to set it up all fight long. :wacko:

 

[Sebowski]

I've got a small play on Lawler at +155 tonight. Don't like any of the other lines. I read Nagy was +550, but my site has him at +250. Starting think that 550 was a publicity stunt.

Man, GL with that. I'm thinking RL goes to sleep quickly tonight.

Agreed. Manhoef is ferocious.

Guess I'm in the minority on this one. Lawler all the way.

I'm with you. I have money on Lawler.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Not sure if "Scott Smith'ing" a fight has been coined as a verb yet, but GD that's sure what Lawler did. Could not believe that. He's not going to be walking for about a week. Grats Sebowski on the lootcakes.

Walker...zzz. I know he doesn't have much training but the guy needs a lot more work before I want to see him again, and at 47 he doesn't have the luxury of time.

Lashley looked good, but they need to stop giving him cans. Let's see Lashley vs Bigfoot Silva next!

Coenen looked good, better than I expected but the power and the ferocity and the penis and the balls of Cyborg were too much. Anyone seen this Erin Toughhill they keep mentioning as her next potential opponent?

I know I'm in the minority but I have serious manlove for the Diaz brothers. Yes, their combined IQ is lower than room temperature, but they are always, always entertaining. I'm guessing that Shields and Diaz won't fight? Who's on the horizon for Diaz now? Jay Heiron?

All in all pretty good card of fights. 5 fights and all were finished, no judges...gotta like that.

 

[kutta]

Maia -500D Miller +325Marquardt -525Sonnen +325Couture -550Coleman +350Serra -155Trigg +125If you're feeling brave you could try D Miller with the upset....I like his chances better than Colemans or Sonnens. Or Maybe you can see what youd get on a Couture / Marquardt parlay.

I know Mrs. Kutta hates Serra, but I agree with Ahrn that he's the best play here.For a parlay, I would try Maia and Marquardt as I'd be shocked if either lost.For a dog, I'd go with Coleman. Couture's biggest strength is controlling his opponent with his wrestling, but I could see Coleman being a good enough grappler to nullify that strength. Of course, since Mrs. Kutta is a Couture fanboy, this is probably a no-go as well.

Thanks for the help guys. We'll see what kind of odds we can get once we get there. I can pretty much guarantee that no "kutta money" will be put on Coleman or Serra. Actually, from what I'm hearing from the wife, I might be forced to bet on Trigg...

 

[Sebowski]

Not sure if "Scott Smith'ing" a fight has been coined as a verb yet, but GD that's sure what Lawler did. Could not believe that. He's not going to be walking for about a week. Grats Sebowski on the lootcakes.I know I'm in the minority but I have serious manlove for the Diaz brothers. Yes, their combined IQ is lower than room temperature, but they are always, always entertaining. I'm guessing that Shields and Diaz won't fight? Who's on the horizon for Diaz now? Jay Heiron?

Thanks. I said Lawler "pulled a Scott Smith" to someone, so I guess it is gaining steam. I love Nick Diaz. Not so much Nate. Probably because Nate doesn't back it up like Nick does. There is no stopping Nick in Strikeforce. I wouldn't bet against him no matter the opponent, but I'd have to concede that GSP would take him down at will and lay on him for three rounds for a win. I listened to an interview with Nick last week where he talked about the state of MMA judging. His best point was that a fighter should not be rewarded for trying to survive a fight for three rounds. The fighter who is attacking should be rewarded. Too many guys just try wo play the points game and win a decision. That is the problem with the athletes and sportsmen like GSP in mma, and that is what draws me to the fighters like Diaz and Penn. Yes, mma is a sport, one of the best in the world, but it is still a fight. That is at least how it should be judged in my book. Surviving should not earn you as many points as fighting. Diaz's other point was one I have said before. Judges need to factor in "who would have won had the fight kept going" This should be a key in judging. You can also break that down to the round. When I guy is about to tap, but the bell saves him he should lose that round even if he had a bunch of takedowns that didn't go anywhere.

 

[Abrantes]

GSP hate fascinates me to no end.

 

[Sebowski]

GSP hate fascinates me to no end.

I don't hate the player. I hate the game. Just used GSP because he is the most successful at the game. I respect GSP tremendously. If he had a chin he would be totally unstoppable at 170. As it stands fighters only have a punchers chance against him. He has mastered the sport. I still wish he went for finishes and I still wish we could eliminate weight cutting though. That is another story though.

 

[kutta]

GSP hate fascinates me to no end.

I don't hate the player. I hate the game. Just used GSP because he is the most successful at the game. I respect GSP tremendously. If he had a chin he would be totally unstoppable at 170. As it stands fighters only have a punchers chance against him. He has mastered the sport. I still wish he went for finishes and I still wish we could eliminate weight cutting though. That is another story though.

His wins have been:8 (T)KO's - 42%

5 Submissions - 26%

6 Decisions - 31%

One loss was a TKO, and the other a submission.

 

[Sebowski]

GSP hate fascinates me to no end.

I don't hate the player. I hate the game. Just used GSP because he is the most successful at the game. I respect GSP tremendously. If he had a chin he would be totally unstoppable at 170. As it stands fighters only have a punchers chance against him. He has mastered the sport. I still wish he went for finishes and I still wish we could eliminate weight cutting though. That is another story though.

His wins have been:8 (T)KO's - 42%

5 Submissions - 26%

6 Decisions - 31%

One loss was a TKO, and the other a submission.

That is too many decisions. He does whatever it takes to win without putting himself in danger. Unfortunately for the fans that means he doesn't go for the kill.

 

[Sebowski]

Someone please talk me off Sonnen at those odd.His wrestling is better than Marquardt's and Nate's biggest strength is his top position grappling. Perhaps I underrrated Nate's striking, but I'm thinking that he didn't absolutely dominate Thales Leities on the feet (although that fight is a while ago) so Sonnen has a decent chance to survive long enough to get into the clinch and let his Greco take over. I don't see Sonnen as a favorite, I'm thinking +375 is a very good price.

Meh. I like Sonnen, but Marquardt is FAR above him.

Sonnen's a solid wrestler, but given Nate's tremendous strength and advantages nearly across the board, I think it's hard to justify a bet on Sonnen. I've been on Marquardt's bandwagon for a while, and I was heartbroken to see the ridiculously inflated line on this fight, as he should not be as big of a favorite as he is - but thank the linesmakers for acknowledging all the talk of "if Marquardt wins, he'll get his rematch with Silva" and forcing us to really pay if we want to back him. That said, I've locked in Marquardt at -350 at Betus which I believe is by far the best price available out there.

I think Marquardt would be a good play at -500. There is no chance Sonnen wins this fight.

 

[modogg]

That is too many decisions. He does whatever it takes to win without putting himself in danger. Unfortunately for the fans that means he doesn't go for the kill.

I have to completely disagree. GSP makes it a complete art form. If he didn't tear his groin against Thiago he may have put him out, and his fight against Fitch was more of an indication that Fitch wouldn't quit. Making BJ quit like he did was very impressiveas for this weekend's card i forget what all i have. I have some on Marquardt and i'm not sure what else i will do with the main card.

i think there is some value in the undercard, that i need to explore a little more, but so far i got:

Nover +105 over Emerson: I jsut do not have faith in Emerson. Hard to have faith in Nover at this point as well, but i think the money is safe here. One thing i do on occassion is weigh in what Joe Silva sees. Example here is that Joe Silva felt Nover was worthy of taking on Sam Stout, a guy that i put certainly put well above Emerson. Emerson's win over Manny was an impressive shot, and i didn't see his fight against Nakamura, but he is coming off 2 losses to Dos Anjos and Pellegrino. i also think that the line on Nover is effected by his perception by some that he is weak because of his feinting issues and that he was over-rated on the show

Chris Tuchscherer -200 over Hague: I don't know either guy all that well, but Tuchscherer is certainly tough as nails after coming back form his kick in the nuts he received from Gonzaga. he trains with Lensar, and i have not been all that impressed by Hague (though i have a soft spot for the guy being that he was a kindergarten teacher and just loves to fight). but with money involved, i think Thuchs is pretty safe here

Melvin Guillard -135 over Ronys Torres: I have to look more into Torres, but apparently the guy is in the middle of a 40 pound weight cut (something like 18 more pounds to go) and his last fight was in September of '08. Guillard has been costly for me in the past because he is such a knucklehead, but i have some faith that he has matured a bit and with his training under Greg Jackson i think he will be better. He has also been working with Guida and Joe Stevenson with submission defenses, etc. Hopefully this is Guillard's coming out party

lighter bets for now because i want to look into these some more, but i may add more as the fights get closer

 

[Abrantes]

That is too many decisions. He does whatever it takes to win without putting himself in danger. Unfortunately for the fans that means he doesn't go for the kill.

I have to completely disagree. GSP makes it a complete art form. If he didn't tear his groin against Thiago he may have put him out, and his fight against Fitch was more of an indication that Fitch wouldn't quit. Making BJ quit like he did was very impressiveas for this weekend's card i forget what all i have. I have some on Marquardt and i'm not sure what else i will do with the main card.

i think there is some value in the undercard, that i need to explore a little more, but so far i got:

Nover +105 over Emerson: I jsut do not have faith in Emerson. Hard to have faith in Nover at this point as well, but i think the money is safe here. One thing i do on occassion is weigh in what Joe Silva sees. Example here is that Joe Silva felt Nover was worthy of taking on Sam Stout, a guy that i put certainly put well above Emerson. Emerson's win over Manny was an impressive shot, and i didn't see his fight against Nakamura, but he is coming off 2 losses to Dos Anjos and Pellegrino. i also think that the line on Nover is effected by his perception by some that he is weak because of his feinting issues and that he was over-rated on the show

Melvin Guillard -135 over Ronys Torres: I have to look more into Torres, but apparently the guy is in the middle of a 40 pound weight cut (something like 18 more pounds to go) and his last fight was in September of '08. Guillard has been costly for me in the past because he is such a knucklehead, but i have some faith that he has matured a bit and with his training under Greg Jackson i think he will be better. He has also been working with Guida and Joe Stevenson with submission defenses, etc. Hopefully this is Guillard's coming out party.

Surprised at Nover's line. His takedown defense hasn't looked all that hot since the Escudero fight on the TUF Finale, but that shouldn't be a big issue against Emerson, and I definitely think the Filipino Assassin's striking is a lot sharper. Regardless of their UFC win-loss records, I'm taking Nover here.As for Torres, he's a little beast of a lightweight, in the mold of fellow Brazilians Gleison Tibau and Thiago Tavares (though not as massive as Tibau). Last I heard (on a Tatame article published a day or two ago), he had about 15lbs left to cut, and plans on having about 7lbs left on the day of the weigh-in. Apparently this kind of weight cut isn't out of the norm for him, but possible fatigue is a concern, particularly combined with ring rust.

On the flip side, I have absolutely zero faith in Guillard. His ground game is still embarrassing, and it's hard for me to back him purely on faith that Greg Jackson will knock some sense into him. Despite flying under the radar, Torres is an experienced, well-rounded fighter with good takedowns and the slick jiu-jitsu you'd expect from a Nova União fighter. If he's fit enough, I take him to win by submission. Gave up on waiting for Guillard's coming out party, even though he's still pretty young.

 

[modogg]

On the flip side, I have absolutely zero faith in Guillard. His ground game is still embarrassing, and it's hard for me to back him purely on faith that Greg Jackson will knock some sense into him. Despite flying under the radar, Torres is an experienced, well-rounded fighter with good takedowns and the slick jiu-jitsu you'd expect from a Nova União fighter. If he's fit enough, I take him to win by submission. Gave up on waiting for Guillard's coming out party, even though he's still pretty young.

Thanks for the input. The more i have looked into this fight the more i am hearing about Torres' potential. I am not as concerned about Guillard being subbed because it is a lot of the guillotine choke (he lost to Rich Clementi by Rear Naked, but that fight was just a mess for melvin. and his other somewhat recent submission loss was to Josh Neer by triangle choke in 1/06). This will be a lighter play, but i'm banking that 3 months working with Guida and Stevenson had to help him some, as well as Torres being a little rusty from the year and a half lay-off, and a little overwhelmed from the huge jump to a UFC show, televised on Spike. Wow, that last point I just made was really grasping . If Guillard loses, he will begin to enter jake Shields land for me for guys that have killed my MMA gambling (betting against Shields, as opposed to betting on Guillard)

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Not sure if "Scott Smith'ing" a fight has been coined as a verb yet, but GD that's sure what Lawler did. Could not believe that. He's not going to be walking for about a week. Grats Sebowski on the lootcakes.I know I'm in the minority but I have serious manlove for the Diaz brothers. Yes, their combined IQ is lower than room temperature, but they are always, always entertaining. I'm guessing that Shields and Diaz won't fight? Who's on the horizon for Diaz now? Jay Heiron?

Thanks. I said Lawler "pulled a Scott Smith" to someone, so I guess it is gaining steam. I love Nick Diaz. Not so much Nate. Probably because Nate doesn't back it up like Nick does. There is no stopping Nick in Strikeforce. I wouldn't bet against him no matter the opponent, but I'd have to concede that GSP would take him down at will and lay on him for three rounds for a win. I listened to an interview with Nick last week where he talked about the state of MMA judging. His best point was that a fighter should not be rewarded for trying to survive a fight for three rounds. The fighter who is attacking should be rewarded. Too many guys just try wo play the points game and win a decision. That is the problem with the athletes and sportsmen like GSP in mma, and that is what draws me to the fighters like Diaz and Penn. Yes, mma is a sport, one of the best in the world, but it is still a fight. That is at least how it should be judged in my book. Surviving should not earn you as many points as fighting. Diaz's other point was one I have said before. Judges need to factor in "who would have won had the fight kept going" This should be a key in judging. You can also break that down to the round. When I guy is about to tap, but the bell saves him he should lose that round even if he had a bunch of takedowns that didn't go anywhere.

GSP is a poor example of this, he does greatly benefit from the overvalue placed on takedowns and control by North American MMA judges, but he does is constantly looking to improve position and cause damage. A better example would be the last Rashad Evans fight, which Evans often took Thiago Silva down and let him up so that he could take him down again and the judges gave him the fight on that. Another is the Diego Sanchez - Clay Guida fight, Sanchez was pummeling Guida both standing and while in guard yet some judge gave the 2nd round to Guida seemingly based solely on a takedown.The idea of control under the Unified Rules combined with the influence of wrestling on the UFC during the creation of these rules is the cause of the scoring differing so much from the Japanese system in which the highest weight is placed on "effort to finish the fight." For the future of the sport, I really hope the scoring is changed soon. If it wasn't for the UFC's policy of keeping undercard fights standing with fight of the night and KO of the night bonuses, the number of decisions would be much, much larger. And GSP's decision ratio is probably not that high for A and B level guys at below LHW. 3 rounds is often not enough to clearly separate top guys.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Well it looks like the wife and I are going to be attending UFC 109 in Vegas. She's a huge Couture fan, so she's really looking forward to it.

Looks like a pretty good card, but I generally don't bet on UFC. Does anyone see any standouts on this card that I could put some money on?

Performify's Picks for UFC 109- Mike Swick (-200) : 1 unit to win .5 units

- Frank Trigg (+125) : .4 units to win .5 units

- Ronys Torres (-113) : 1.13 units to win 1 unit

- Rolles Gracie (-475) : 4.75 units to win 1 unit

 

[sheerterror]

Not really much for me on this card.

I hit Marquardt at -350 a week or two ago but I wouldn't play him at the -500ish that he sits at now. While he's got some pretty clear paths to victory, a wrestler as strong as Sonnen (a guy who I've bet against in his last two fights) is always a threat for a lay n' pray decision victory.

I played Swick for a little purely based on the fact that Performify and 2 other write-ups I follow are on him, and very rarely have I found that to be a losing proposition, so I risked a unit there. All 3 are also on Trigg, but I just don't see it, so that's a no play for me. May look to add a bit to Torres as Guilard is a total flake and Torres definitely has some skills.

All in all, a pretty underwhelming card both froma fan and betting perspective. Should start to get much better from UFC 110 and on.

 

[modogg]

Not really much for me on this card.

I hit Marquardt at -350 a week or two ago but I wouldn't play him at the -500ish that he sits at now. While he's got some pretty clear paths to victory, a wrestler as strong as Sonnen (a guy who I've bet against in his last two fights) is always a threat for a lay n' pray decision victory.

I played Swick for a little purely based on the fact that Performify and 2 other write-ups I follow are on him, and very rarely have I found that to be a losing proposition, so I risked a unit there. All 3 are also on Trigg, but I just don't see it, so that's a no play for me. May look to add a bit to Torres as Guilard is a total flake and Torres definitely has some skills.

All in all, a pretty underwhelming card both froma fan and betting perspective. Should start to get much better from UFC 110 and on.

I completely agree here. I know Performify is a bit of a fanboy for Trigg, and with Trigg doing the MMAJunkie radio show i do wonder if there is any influence. I just looked again though, and I realized that i originally thought he had 4 units on trigg, not .4 . That makes more sense. I agree the card is weak, but i think Tuchscherer is a valuable pick at around -200, and i think Nover is a good pick at his odds. I also just did my infamous dopey plays, and put a little on Brian Stann at +210 and Beltran at +375. One of these days i will exercise some discipline with those, it is these damn late night plays, get me almost all of the time.

 

[modogg]

my betus acct. is just about a dead duck, but i would like to put a parlay or 2 in to see if i can gain some ground. So far, i have 3 plays i would like to put in and that is:

Tuchscherer -200

Randy/Coleman over 2.5 rounds -260

Nate -500

and i am looking to add some UFC 110 plays, which seem to be the safest to add:

Big Nog -120 vs. Valesquez -110

Wandy -150 vs. Bisping +120

Joe Stevenson -300 vs. George Sotiropoulos +220

Bader -150 vs. Keith Jardine +120

Cro Cop -150 vs. Ben Rothwell +120

There is a lot of good value on that card. I think Jardine and Rothwell are both good bets.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Cro Cop -150 vs. Ben Rothwell +120

Can you guys imagine what the line on this fight would have been 4 years ago?