Cavalier said:
When I was in Vegas I saw Carwin +150 against Mir. Does anyone think he is really a dog to Mir?
I think there's tremendous value in Carwin. Let's consider if this fight would have taken place a few months after Mir lost to Lesnar at UFC 111, and Carwin was coming off his win against Gonzaga. That's not to say this fight was going to/supposed to happen, but it's just to put into context how much a fighter's immediate recent history plays into lines IMO. I don't think there's any way Carwin would have been any worse than a slight favorite in that fight, as he had just showed a great chin, nice standup ability against a superior grappler, and dynamite KO power as he knocked out a very tough guy with a rabbit punch. Mir was just coming off a loss to a fighter very, very similar to Shane Carwin in Brock Lesnar. There's little debate that Lesnar's got better wrestling credentials than Carwin, and he may have a slight advantage in size/strength, but Lesnar's punching power pales in comparison to Carwin's. Now since both of those fights have happened, Carwin and Mir have gone in to seperate directions. Mir hit the weights and rebuilt himself, realizing that if he wants to compete with guys like Carwin and Lesnar, he's going to have to get quite a bit stronger. He then went on to dominate gatekeeper Cheick Kongo, and all of a sudden, Mir has become this superfighter because now he's jacked and looked great on his feet against a striker. Carwin has been on the sidelines for over a year with a combination of waiting for Lesnar and then surgery. Ring rust is certainly a possibility for this coming fight, but when you consider the experience factor for both fighters, Carwin has more room for improvement in his game, and as a result, likely benefitted from all this additional time training.As far as the fight is concerned - does Mir look improved? Sure he does. But adding all of that muscle will not improve his wrestling by itself, so unless he's really been diligent in working his takedown defense, he COULD very well suffer a similar fate that he did against Lesnar at UFC 100, where the stronger, more powerful wrestler takes him down, uses the size and wrestling advantage to maintain position and rain down the G'N'P en route to a tko stoppage. The biggest danger Carwin faces in this fight is letting it get to the mat IMO. I don't care how Mir looked against a broken down Nogueira and mediocre Kongo, he's never fought a HW with the power of Shane Carwin, and that includes his two fights against Lesnar. If Mir tries to stand and bang with Carwin, he may very well connect a few times, but we know Carwin's got an iron chin, and once Mir tastes Carwin's power, he's not going to respond well as he's not the type of fighter that likes to get hit.To me, Mir's primary path to victory is getting Carwin to the ground and subbing him. How do you get a bigger, stronger, better wrestler to the ground? Likely ONLY by stunning Carwin, and taking him down the way Gonzaga did. Carwin was able to stand up almost instantaneously with Gonzaga on top, and he's just as highly credentialed a grappler as Mir. Carwin has a few paths to victory, as I see it more likely that if this fight stays standing, Carwin KOs Mir much more often than Mir KOs Carwin. Factor in the wrestling advantage, and the fact that Carwin will likely be able to take this fight to the mat when he wants and hold Mir down and punish him, and you can see how Carwin can also win by TKO on the ground or via points. Of course, I could be completely underestimating the "new and improved Frank Mir" and his standup could really be legit, his wrestling improved, and his new muscles enough to negate Carwin's perceived strength/size advantage, and Mir's experience could very well allow him to dominate the less experienced, potentially rusty Carwin. However, I LOVE Shane Carwin at a positive number, and this will be a multi unit play for me at +130.
I agree. I will likely load up oin Carwin some more, I am very confident he will win. i think Mir's only chance is to win by submission, and i'm sure Carwin is preparing plenty for that. this isn't like Mir's first fight with Lesnar, Shane has been fighting quite a bit, and i think Carwin's big step-up in competition was his fight with Gonzaga. Gonzaga did rock Shane a bit, but Carwin's ability to respond to that showed a lot. And I think Goinzaga has more power than Mir.i love this one, and there is one fight at 112 I am wetting myself about right now. and i do look forward to wagering on the UFC on VS. and the Dream event.
Negatory on the plus event, the undercard messed me up pretty good. nice job Sheer on cleaning up, i have faith this upcoming weekend will be a nice money maker with Carwin, Almeida, and some others
Negatory on the plus event, the undercard messed me up pretty good. nice job Sheer on cleaning up, i have faith this upcoming weekend will be a nice money maker with Carwin, Almeida, and some others
. That line has moved all around, but i have to think the money comes in on Carwin come closer to Saturday. I am a little surprised with the movement of the Alves-Fitch line though, I did not think there was such a big advantage there. And I am done loading up on one of my future picks, it is one i am in love with:
awesome.
