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While I agree that Fedor would be a sizable favorite in the rematch, unless the loss greatly changes him, he still goes to the ground with Werdum. Fedor has always fought to his opponent's strength.
Fedor did not simply get "caught" in a submission... he got sloppy and had no respect for Werdum. I thought Werdum went to the ground more because he lost balance, rather than get dazed but I could see how Fedor thought Werdum was dazed so it's cool that he jumped on him. However, once Werdum is trying to set up a triangle/arm bar Fedor should have put on the breaks and gained control. Fedor was lucky/good enough to get out of the 1st triangle attempt and instead of trying to get his arm out of there and gaining side control of getting deeper into Werdum guard Fedor continued to punch with one arm. STUPID move.At a time Fedor was the best, but I've been sick of people claiming he was the best fighter in the world. Dude hasn't fought anyone in a long time and the best HW he beat have been demolished by the new crop of HW. With all that said in a re-match Fedor would destroy Werdum.i don't think this played a part at all, but the theories will be rabid. by the way, Fedor simply got caught in a submission that many would have been caught in. Werdum had him setup for it, and was trying for it the whole time. But even before this fight, i would argue Fedor was the GOAT. Personally i may have chose GSP as the GOAT. he has some losses, but has learned from his losses, and has reasons why he lost them. At this point, i don't now of anyone who will beat GSP or Anderson Silva, and if you really want to thin of a GOAT, i thin one of these 2 is certainly should be in the conversation.
and i wonder where Strikeforce goes from here. Fedor losing can't help them, i can't imagine the enthusiasm for Overeem-Werdum will not be the same as Fedor-Overeem
Great post here.Fedor did not simply get "caught" in a submission... he got sloppy and had no respect for Werdum. I thought Werdum went to the ground more because he lost balance, rather than get dazed but I could see how Fedor thought Werdum was dazed so it's cool that he jumped on him. However, once Werdum is trying to set up a triangle/arm bar Fedor should have put on the breaks and gained control. Fedor was lucky/good enough to get out of the 1st triangle attempt and instead of trying to get his arm out of there and gaining side control of getting deeper into Werdum guard Fedor continued to punch with one arm. STUPID move.At a time Fedor was the best, but I've been sick of people claiming he was the best fighter in the world. Dude hasn't fought anyone in a long time and the best HW he beat have been demolished by the new crop of HW. With all that said in a re-match Fedor would destroy Werdum.i don't think this played a part at all, but the theories will be rabid. by the way, Fedor simply got caught in a submission that many would have been caught in. Werdum had him setup for it, and was trying for it the whole time. But even before this fight, i would argue Fedor was the GOAT. Personally i may have chose GSP as the GOAT. he has some losses, but has learned from his losses, and has reasons why he lost them. At this point, i don't now of anyone who will beat GSP or Anderson Silva, and if you really want to thin of a GOAT, i thin one of these 2 is certainly should be in the conversation.
and i wonder where Strikeforce goes from here. Fedor losing can't help them, i can't imagine the enthusiasm for Overeem-Werdum will not be the same as Fedor-Overeem
I can't stand Tito myself, but he is beginning to get that "Matt Hughes" aura for me. I do hope the guy fights again because i enjoy watching him lose, but it isn't a hateful thing, more like a heel from Pro Wrestling kind of thing. I mean how can you not pay attention to the guy when he has quotes like this:"I'm the Muhammad Ali of mixed martial arts. I'm the guy who... promotes and tries to make it better for the fighter's future. All the fighters; Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, Babalu, all these guys who make great money now... they can thank me. Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, they can thank me."
rganizations
Oh god. This is the last person we need in hereFedor did not simply get "caught" in a submission... he got sloppy and had no respect for Werdum. I thought Werdum went to the ground more because he lost balance, rather than get dazed but I could see how Fedor thought Werdum was dazed so it's cool that he jumped on him. However, once Werdum is trying to set up a triangle/arm bar Fedor should have put on the breaks and gained control. Fedor was lucky/good enough to get out of the 1st triangle attempt and instead of trying to get his arm out of there and gaining side control of getting deeper into Werdum guard Fedor continued to punch with one arm. STUPID move.At a time Fedor was the best, but I've been sick of people claiming he was the best fighter in the world. Dude hasn't fought anyone in a long time and the best HW he beat have been demolished by the new crop of HW. With all that said in a re-match Fedor would destroy Werdum.i don't think this played a part at all, but the theories will be rabid. by the way, Fedor simply got caught in a submission that many would have been caught in. Werdum had him setup for it, and was trying for it the whole time. But even before this fight, i would argue Fedor was the GOAT. Personally i may have chose GSP as the GOAT. he has some losses, but has learned from his losses, and has reasons why he lost them. At this point, i don't now of anyone who will beat GSP or Anderson Silva, and if you really want to thin of a GOAT, i thin one of these 2 is certainly should be in the conversation.
and i wonder where Strikeforce goes from here. Fedor losing can't help them, i can't imagine the enthusiasm for Overeem-Werdum will not be the same as Fedor-Overeem
I think Lesnar will get away from the southpaw stance after a minute in the octagon. In the words of Mr. Tyson himself "Everybody has a plan until they get hit". I also think Lesnar's wrestling will play a factor in the 1st, but if Carwin can survive it, I think lesnar may have trouble taking Shane down as the fight progresses. A lot of guessing there, but I hear a lot of people talk about the Herring fight and how Lesnar dominated completely there with wrestling, but I don't think Heath had one offensive moment that whole fight, and I would take Carwin over Herring even with a Herring in his prime
Why do you think this? Just wondering what your reasoning why Brock will have difficulty later on.
IMO it doesnt even get to a later round. If the fight makes it out the first 3 minutes i will be surprised. Actually, if they dance and keep their distance for the first couple minutes, i could see it going late into the first. But, i just dont think Lesnar has seen power like Carwins right hand. One punch KO power can end a fight reallll quick like
Yah but will Carwin be able to get a shot? Sounds like Brock is planning on keeping this fight on the ground with a switch to the southpaw stance. Just depends if Carwin can stop that from happening.
I'm not a medical doctor, but i have a hard time thinking a guy can go through a life threatening disease where he loses over 55 pounds and come back to fight at the same level 5 months later. Maybe I am under-estimating his abaility to bounce back, and maybe the disease was a lot of water weight, but still i think there is no way he can be back to 100%. Maybe I'm wrong, but adding in a possible ring rust factor from not fighting and not training for half of the last year, i would think Lesnar will be at a disadvantage here. Both guys will wear eachother down with their strength and it will take a lot of energy for Lesnar to hold Carwin on the ground when he gets him there. Maybe I am wrong with that statement, but i would think it won't be as easy as it was against Herring and Mir who just turtled up and covered up. I also think people are falling into the fallacy that just because Carwin hasn't made it out of the first round, that for some reason his cardio is weaker. We don't know Carwin's cardio in a 5-round fight, but he has been training for 5 rounds now for a long time. I do not think heis cardio will ber anything less than average.
Nothing worse then getting into discussions about Pacquiao-Mayweather or Fedor-Lesnar to have them go nowhere
I think you are definately right that Madson's gameplan will be very predeictable, and if he sticks to it can probably beat Vemola. The only advantage possible for Vemola is he trains with Mustafa Al Turk, so they have been preparing for Madson for some time. but i do hope some money comes in on Vemola, and i will take off some of my Vemola bet. this was a 90% emotional bet, so i am hoping the betting public comes up big and presents a good opportunity.
Performify says it pretty well in his article:This line opened with Lesnar around -185. Sources in the gambling industry indicate that this fight likely will be the most wagered MMA fight in history, eclipsing the Lesnar-Mir event from UFC 100. Everyone I've spoken to indicates that the books are all generally exposed on the Lesnar side. So unless the continually lowering odds on Lesnar attract some serious action on the other side, this is going to be either a bloodbath for the books or for the MMA betting public.
the only way I see Carwin winning is if he lands a big punch early, but I don't think Lesnar's going to let him get much of a chance. I think Shane's gonna get taken down quick and pounded on, and I think he's going to A) lose his confidence once he finds out how easy Lesnar puts him on the mat, and B) lose his stamina after a round or two of laying on his back getting punched in the face.the hype on Carwin is a little out of control to me - the guy's 12-0, but he's only got two wins against decent competition. The rest of his KOs are against some serious nobodies. People always rag on Lesnar only having five fights, but even with five fights he's got a better resume than Carwin.
I suspect that Lesnar's cardio would be better than Carwin's because we've seen Lesnar go 3 rounds and looked fine and Carwin looks pretty stiff when fighting. However, I don't see this becoming too much of an issue because if it goes into the 2nd or 3rd round one of them will likely be dominating.I'm not a medical doctor, but i have a hard time thinking a guy can go through a life threatening disease where he loses over 55 pounds and come back to fight at the same level 5 months later. Maybe I am under-estimating his abaility to bounce back, and maybe the disease was a lot of water weight, but still i think there is no way he can be back to 100%. Maybe I'm wrong, but adding in a possible ring rust factor from not fighting and not training for half of the last year, i would think Lesnar will be at a disadvantage here. Both guys will wear eachother down with their strength and it will take a lot of energy for Lesnar to hold Carwin on the ground when he gets him there. Maybe I am wrong with that statement, but i would think it won't be as easy as it was against Herring and Mir who just turtled up and covered up. I also think people are falling into the fallacy that just because Carwin hasn't made it out of the first round, that for some reason his cardio is weaker. We don't know Carwin's cardio in a 5-round fight, but he has been training for 5 rounds now for a long time. I do not think heis cardio will ber anything less than average.
I also think Carwin gets more of an advantage if the fight goes a few rounds because I could see Lesnar not being able to hold him down all round, and when they are up and swinging Carwin can connect and hurt Lesnar (basically i think we could see more stand-up in the later rounds because Carwin will want it there).
As I have mentioned in a few of my posts, the best thing i love about analyzing this, is we will have some of these answers in only 2 daysNothing worse then getting into discussions about Pacquiao-Mayweather or Fedor-Lesnar to have them go nowhere
Any idea how the amount of $$$ compares to other events. Is the most wagered MMA fight in history comparable to an NFL preseason game, regular season, or playoff game?
I think you make some good points, but I just disagree on this - where do you see Carwin having an advantage other than KO power?Speed/Quickness - Lesnar by quite a bit
I agree that if Lesnar's still suffering some ill effects from his injury that could be a big factor, and the ring rust thing is definitely a possibility too. But everything out of his camp, including Couture's report, is that he's 100% healthy and feeling better than ever, and I'm gonna assume that information's correct. If it is, I just do not see Shane Carwin having much success against a healthy Brock Lesnar - Carwin's too slow, too plodding, and he leaves himself much too open to getting hit and taken down. If Gabe Gonzaga could do it to him with ease, Lesnar is gonna have a field day.I'm interested in the Sotiropoulos fight you mentioned and the Leben/Akiyama fight - will be interesting to see how Leben handles fighting two times so close to each other. I really don't have a lot of interest in the other two fights, but they both should be pretty entertaining.
hmm, I haven't heard anything about this, where did you get this information from? Pretty interesting, and if there is a chance it is the case I would definately want to know. For example, if the source is Franklin McNeal, I'll throw the thought to the wolves because he tricked me with talking about Shogun's severe injury before the Machida fight, causing me to buy out of my Shogun bet and add additional funds to Machida. That move sucked. But i also have made some good money based off of info like this (i forget what card it was, but it was a Japanese card and i grabbed a guy at +400 and it paid off great). So i would love to heara any addl. info you may have on this.and i am geting more and more excited for this card. i think i will buy out a bit from my Carwin bet because i want to be able to really enjoy the card, and not have to much on the line for that fight. Big question for the Lesnar backers though, if Brock wins this fight, who do you think will beat Brock? I think Carwin matches up against him better than some of the other contendors, so who matches up best with Brock after Carwin? I think if Carwin wins, you have plenty of exciting fights with Cain and JDS, etc. still to come. but if Lesnar dominates Carwin through his wrestling, i would think he will definatly do the same to Cain and JDS
Exactly. Brock is just too athletic and too good for anyone else. The only reason any of us are even excited about this fight is because Carwin has one hit KO power, otherwise this would be Brock in a landslide. But you're right Velasquez is a mini-Brock Lesnar and JDS is too slow and plodding. Really if Brock beats Carwin, I would only get really excited if Brock faces Fedor and possibly Overeem. Other than that I really don't see anyone else even close to Brock. It's pretty much Carwin or bust IMO.
Eh. Tallying up individual skill advantages hardly ever gives the true picture of how a fight goes down. There's way too many factors to try to sum it up with an arbitrary set of criteria. At any rate, the edges in each category seem largely irrelevant, other than a technical wrestling edge to Lesnar and a striking advantage to Carwin. I don't think dismissing both as inadequate strikers paints the whole picture here. Carwin looks far mroe comfortable in the standup than Lesnar, for the most part.Like I said in my first post, it's a gut feeling. Lesnar obviously has the skill to finish the fight in the first round too, but I'm more confident in what I've seen so far from Carwin, partly because his greater number of fights paints a clearer picture of who he is as a fighter, while Brock still leaves me wondering. Carwin is Lesnar's first opponent with this combination of size and wrestling skill, so this could get interesting.
What? Cigano is slow and plodding now? Where did this come from?Also, I'd gladly bet on Dos Santos as a tougher striker and overall opponent than overhyped Overeem.
It's cool, your guess is as good as mine - nothing in this game is ever a sure thing. I don't really agree that we've seen that much more from Carwin than we have from Lesnar though - I read somewhere that with all his fights ending in the first round, Carwin's only spent a total of something like 17 minutes in the cage. Brock went almost that long in just the Herring fight.I feel like I've seen enough of Lesnar to show me that he's a freaking beast - couple his high-level athleticism with his wrestling ability and sheer aggression, and I think the guy to beat him is going to have to be a skilled fighter with high-level athleticism as well. I don't think size is nearly as important as athleticism for a HW to take out Lesnar, and I'm just not convinced that Carwin is that guy.
What? Cigano is slow and plodding now? Where did this come from?Also, I'd gladly bet on Dos Santos as a tougher striker and overall opponent than overhyped Overeem.
to the JDS not being slow comments - dude has some fast hands and quick footwork for a HW.dunno who I'd pick with him against the Reem though, that would be fun to watch for sure.
You're right. For some reason Antonio Silva popped into my head when I read JDS.JDS would be a good fight, but I don't think he's strong enough to fend of Brock and the way Overeem manhandled Brett Rogers was just impressive.
Brock is too athletic and too good for anyone else - based on what? Just like Fedor is invincible? There's wayyyy too small of a sample size on Lesnar to think he's invincible, ESPECIALLY after coming off a year long lay off that saw him lose substantial muscle mass. Other than his second fight with Mir, he hasn't finished anyone in nearly convincing enough fashion to believe that he's going to retire undefeated or any other nonsensical assessment some people are coming up with about him.
Based on this statement, Cain Velasquez comes to mind immediately.
Sorry I missed this a few days ago
erhaps annihilation was a hyperbole, but let's suffice it to say Fedor had a very swift knockdown of Werdum before diving into his guard - I'm quite confident that if that fight were to stay standing, Fedor wins the exchanges pretty handily.I didn't make my statement in an attempt to downplay Werdum's ability or what he accomplished in the fight. Most know Werdum is one of the best HW grappler's around, and he certainly deserves credit for the win. It's definitely not as though Fedor lost to some no name scrub - although the betting lines for the fight prior to money coming in on Werdum would have indicated such (Fedor being at -800 for a while was just ridiculous) - it was just shocking that while Fedor made a career of beating other fighters at their game, it would also be his downfall in this fight. It becomes a question of did he flat out make a mental error in going back into Werdum's guard, or was he overconfident in his ability to overcome his opponent's strengths to use that as his path to victory?
Fedor was never invincible to me. He's been overrated since PRIDE went away. Please tell me what HW has similar size/strength/speed/skill (college wrestling champion) compared to Brock Lesnar?
How about he made a mental error going back into Werdum's guard because he was overconfident in his ability to overcome his opponent's strength?Seems like both, not one or the other.Sorry I missed this a few days ago
I didn't make my statement in an attempt to downplay Werdum's ability or what he accomplished in the fight. Most know Werdum is one of the best HW grappler's around, and he certainly deserves credit for the win. It's definitely not as though Fedor lost to some no name scrub - although the betting lines for the fight prior to money coming in on Werdum would have indicated such (Fedor being at -800 for a while was just ridiculous) - it was just shocking that while Fedor made a career of beating other fighters at their game, it would also be his downfall in this fight. It becomes a question of did he flat out make a mental error in going back into Werdum's guard, or was he overconfident in his ability to overcome his opponent's strengths to use that as his path to victory?
Cain Velasquez would be the best HW in UFC if it wasn't for Brock Lesnar, IMO. With that said the 20 pound difference in weight is a huge advantage for Brock.
So I have to say, I really don't have a lot of faith in any of these bets i made. I am sure i will bet down on most, but i think the match-ups on this card are very good and hard to really find an advantage. A great card, that it would probably be one of those cards where you bet $25 on every underdog and hope for the best. I don't know if looking at more stuff will even help, there are a lot of unknown variables on this card and there isn't any fight you can look at and feel that comfortable that it is a lock the guy will win. I think the bet i like the most above is the Petruzelli bet.
I would be a little worried with that one. Not saying Tusch should win, but I don't think we have seen enough of Schaub to feel that he wins this outright. Tusch trains with Lesnar, and that camp has had a lot of work for the last few months. Tusch looked alright against Gonzage before he got blasted in the nuts. Schaub is probably the right play, but i think you may be better off not putting too much into that one
I appreciate your opinion mo and will take it into consideration. I guess I need to watch that Gonzaga fight again and probably a few more of Schaubs's.
you may be right, i haven't looked a ton into these 2. if i were to put the balance on the line, i would think about putting it on Lytle. He fights like a goofball half the time standing and brawling, when his skill set is probably better than brown's standing and on the ground. Lytle looked good in his last fight, and i could see him continuing that rise. The only problem is Brown can hit like a ton of bricks, and if he catches Lytle it could be "Good Night Eireen!!!". It is a tough card to wager on and the books set the lines pretty well (except for opening Carwin at +185 and Leben at +260)
I don't like that bet. I jumped on Tuchs a while ago when I saw those odds. Really thought it would move towards him.
I will probably put even more on him.Really glad I've been waiting on Lesanr's line to come down. I'll probably wait a little longer hoping it gets to -130. A lot of hype on Carwin right now. I just don't see him getting that clean shot to knock Lesnar out. Lesnar will wear him out and get the stoppage eventually.I also like Leben at +160. I don;t think Akiyama is big enough for the American middleweights. He won;t be able to keep Leben down. That means Leben will land. That means Akiyama will fall.
Agreed. I was talking to a friend about this earlier. Velasquez probably needs a little more time to get himself a few pounds heavier to compete with Brock. Based on what he showed in the Nog fight, he's got better boxing than Lesnar. Lesnar's speed/athleticism advantage is minimal on Cain, and his wrestling abilities might be neutralized if Cain were to get himself a little thicker.Either way, the division includes future matchups involving all of Lesnar-Carwin-Velasquez-Dos Santos and that is pretty damn awesome. It's a shame that all 4 of these guys won't be in their prime at the same time.
This is a good question, that i tried to find out what the answer was. They have talked about how MMA gambling has grown a lot in the last year or 2, and is comparable to other major sports, but i would guess that it may rival a regular season game for the NFL, maybe a Monday night game. i honestly don't know, but it is an interesting question
Agree on betting the house on Lytle, except that I don't worry about Brown stopping him. Lytle has never been stopped by his opponent except twice where the doctor ended the fight due to deep cuts. One instance was the first time I heard anyone say, "I can see his skull." - Lytle was pissed at the stoppage.
How often do the Vegas book take a bath?
