Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Nice little shoulder shot by Silva 
He's in Sonnen head.
He's in Sonnen head.
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
- Start date
MikeIke
Footballguy
Oh man, tomorrow I go on vacation to North Carolina and I'm hoping there's a bar there that's showing this fight, because I think it's gonna be GOOD!
My picks, for what they're worth:
Silva over Sonnen - submission 3rd round
Griffin over Ortiz - Unanimous Decision
Mendes over McKenzie - One-trick pony won't last long in the UFC. Unanimous decision
Guillard over Camoes - I've loved Guillard since his first UFC fight. KO in 2nd round.
The other fights on the card I have no opinion about.
ETA: If anyone has a working stream when the card starts, can you PM it to me? I'll be stuck on my crappy laptop and really want to watch.
My picks, for what they're worth:
Silva over Sonnen - submission 3rd round
Griffin over Ortiz - Unanimous Decision
Mendes over McKenzie - One-trick pony won't last long in the UFC. Unanimous decision
Guillard over Camoes - I've loved Guillard since his first UFC fight. KO in 2nd round.
The other fights on the card I have no opinion about.
ETA: If anyone has a working stream when the card starts, can you PM it to me? I'll be stuck on my crappy laptop and really want to watch.
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Bobcat10
Footballguy
Further into the Sensei's interview he says the new things are all from the standing position.Any good articles on Segal's impact on MMA or fighting in general? I don't know much about him besides he trains with Silva, made some movies in the past, and is a black belt at something. Does he work with anyone else in the UFC?'Sebowski said:
modogg
Footballguy
It's a funny question. 95% of people think he is a complete joke in MMA, and yet there are still 5% who think he brings something. He is a multi-black belt in whatever he has studies, but the thought process is that he hasn't done anything for MMA, is riding on the blackhouse guys' coattails, and for some reason the blackhouse guys keep pumping him up
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I think the Segal / Blackhouse thing is all shtick.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
I felt uncomfortable watching his interview with Ariel, it was almost comical in a way.....the one where he talked about teaching Silva a few new things for this fight, I think at the weigh in.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Yeah. I'm thinking standing 12-6 elbows. Maybe right to the collarbone. Maybe also also knee kicks.
Seagal has also worked with Machida. Blackhouse in general probably. He offered to work with Jon Jones, but Jones turned him down.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
If Chael had done that to Silva, people would be calling for this fight to not happen. Cheap shot. Chael will make him pay soon.Nice little shoulder shot by Silva
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Cung Le would agree....and Ariel was shocked to hear that.
Pick
Footballguy
Preach on!If Chael had done that to Silva, people would be calling for this fight to not happen. Cheap shot. Chael will make him pay soon.Nice little shoulder shot by Silva
No. 16
Footballguy
He needs to win the belt. I could listen to this guy all day.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Le and Nurmagomedov
EYLive
Footballguy
Wait, Silva gets physical at the weigh-in, which is out of character for him, yet he's the one in Sonnen's head? He gets all pouty and offended after Chael's trash talk, and suddenly he's got the psychological edge? Nice analysis, Sigmund.Nice little shoulder shot by Silva
Bobcat10
Footballguy
That's good to read...have them, Camoes, McKenzie, Alessio, Sonnen as far as dogs go...and Sonnen!
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
For whatever it's worth, I Like Camoes. Don't like McKenzie or Alessio.
modogg
Footballguy
I really think putting money on Mckenzie is throwing money away. I like Ahrn's calls of Khabib and Le, not as sure about Camoes. I like Fukoda and Menjivar too. The card overall is a strange betting card. The lines set are strange, like why Cote is more than a -200 favorite is beyond me. Talking about a guy just coming back to the UFC, who is taking this fight because Franklin took the Silva fight. I thought Cote was going to be the dog for this fight and i was ready to take him with + money, but i think getting Le at anything around +200 is a much better fight. And almost everything i am hearing has people on Sonnen, but i still can't find Silva at better than -270. I want to take Silva, but that line is off with Silva being too much of a favorite considering the variables in this one. there are others one too. Weird card with some of the playsAnd I have money on Alessio as well. Small bet though, and it is based much more as a bet against Roller than a bet for Allesio
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Sonnen needs to be a WWE superstar or promoter when he exits MMA.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Fukoda it, I'm on most dogs now. Favs I'm doing something with Kim and Griffin and whoever Oliveira is going to lose to.
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modogg
Footballguy
At the price i am guessing you got it at it won't kill you. There have been bigger upsets, Varner-Barboza stands out as the biggest in recent memory.
Sebowski
Footballguy
So I predicted 2 legal/illegal moves Seagal taught Silva. He said 3, so I'll predict a third...Open hand shot to the Adam's Apple.
hooter311
Footballguy
Main Card:
Anderson Silva (184) vs. Chael Sonnen (185)
Gotta roll with the American Gangster. If he can come out aggressive and close the distance quick and stay out of range, he has the same advantages he had in the last fight. Like someone said, Silva isn't all of a sudden going to learn how to defend takedowns.
Forrest Griffin (204) vs. Tito Ortiz (204)
Big Forrest fan but not sure if he gives a crap and I think Tito would love to go out on his shield.
Patrick Cote (185) vs. Cung Le (185)
Cote's style isn't much different than Franklin's so Le has had plenty of time to train for this. If Le really wants a UFC career I think we should see some takedowns from him.
Dong Hyun Kim (170) vs. Demian Maia (170)
Maia looked good at 170, but Kim's judo will dictate this fight and his style will gas Maia pretty quick.
Chad Mendes (146) vs. Cody McKenzie (145)
Chad has every skill advantage available but he is tiny compared to Cody and I think he finds the guillotine. If your book has props take Cody by submission because it is the only chance he has.
Mike Easton (135) vs. Ivan Menjivar (136)
Should be a great fight. Easton has a big reach advantage which makes me hesitate a little but his defense sucks and Menjivar is creative enough to find a way to exploit it.
Preliminary Card:
Khabib Nurmagomedov (155) vs. Gleison Tibau (155)
Damn close to a lock. Tibau is huge and has advantages in every area I can think of. Khabib even closes his eyes at time I noticed in watching his fight tapes. Uh oh.
Fabricio Camoes (156) vs. Melvin Guillard (155)
Melvin is lacking in the fight IQ department, if it hasn't been fixed by now, it probably won't ever be. Melvin will dominate the fight and end up getting choked out.
Riki Fukuda (185) vs. Constantinos Philippou (186)
I think this fight is pretty close to a coin flip. I think Philippou's power is overrated and Fukuda will be able to land the takedowns. Great bet to go the distance.
John Alessio (156) vs. Shane Roller (155)
Roller was a great college wrestler and had some success in the WEC but he has looked worse and worse the last few times in the Octagon. Alessio should have a striking advantage and sprawled and brawled with a prime Diego Sanchez back at UFC 60. Roller also had a pieced together camp in Oklahoma to train for this, while Alessio has been at Team Couture forever. Roller should not be favored.
Yoislandy Izquierdo (156) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (156)
Octagon jitters are out of the way and he should be able to showcase his striking here. Oliveira can be effective on the ground but his takedowns are terrible as well as telegraphed.
Anderson Silva (184) vs. Chael Sonnen (185)
Gotta roll with the American Gangster. If he can come out aggressive and close the distance quick and stay out of range, he has the same advantages he had in the last fight. Like someone said, Silva isn't all of a sudden going to learn how to defend takedowns.
Forrest Griffin (204) vs. Tito Ortiz (204)
Big Forrest fan but not sure if he gives a crap and I think Tito would love to go out on his shield.
Patrick Cote (185) vs. Cung Le (185)
Cote's style isn't much different than Franklin's so Le has had plenty of time to train for this. If Le really wants a UFC career I think we should see some takedowns from him.
Dong Hyun Kim (170) vs. Demian Maia (170)
Maia looked good at 170, but Kim's judo will dictate this fight and his style will gas Maia pretty quick.
Chad Mendes (146) vs. Cody McKenzie (145)
Chad has every skill advantage available but he is tiny compared to Cody and I think he finds the guillotine. If your book has props take Cody by submission because it is the only chance he has.
Mike Easton (135) vs. Ivan Menjivar (136)
Should be a great fight. Easton has a big reach advantage which makes me hesitate a little but his defense sucks and Menjivar is creative enough to find a way to exploit it.
Preliminary Card:
Khabib Nurmagomedov (155) vs. Gleison Tibau (155)
Damn close to a lock. Tibau is huge and has advantages in every area I can think of. Khabib even closes his eyes at time I noticed in watching his fight tapes. Uh oh.
Fabricio Camoes (156) vs. Melvin Guillard (155)
Melvin is lacking in the fight IQ department, if it hasn't been fixed by now, it probably won't ever be. Melvin will dominate the fight and end up getting choked out.
Riki Fukuda (185) vs. Constantinos Philippou (186)
I think this fight is pretty close to a coin flip. I think Philippou's power is overrated and Fukuda will be able to land the takedowns. Great bet to go the distance.
John Alessio (156) vs. Shane Roller (155)
Roller was a great college wrestler and had some success in the WEC but he has looked worse and worse the last few times in the Octagon. Alessio should have a striking advantage and sprawled and brawled with a prime Diego Sanchez back at UFC 60. Roller also had a pieced together camp in Oklahoma to train for this, while Alessio has been at Team Couture forever. Roller should not be favored.
Yoislandy Izquierdo (156) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (156)
Octagon jitters are out of the way and he should be able to showcase his striking here. Oliveira can be effective on the ground but his takedowns are terrible as well as telegraphed.
Abrantes
Footballguy
What I got:
Silva - MDK KTFO
Ortiz - If we're being honest, neither guy has looked all that impressive recently.
Coté - Le has always been overrated. Coté has huge punching power and good takedown defense, and has been fighting more regularly.
Maia - Not a homer pick. Kim is nothing special standing, and Maia should have a clear edge on the ground. Also, Kim's gas tank blows.
Mendes - Ehhhhh. I've talked #### about Mendes' style for a while now, but he's great at what he does. Really hope Cody pulls it off, though.
Menjivar - I honestly think very little of Easton, and Menjivar has far superior technique in all areas of the game.
Camões - Rolling the dice. Guillard has the edge on paper, but how many times has he been submitted in similar situations?
Tibau - Again, hate his style, but he's effective and doesn't lose to random dudes. Khabib would have to be much better than I expect.
Fukuda - Going with the veteran grappler, but who knows.
Alessio - One of my favorite MMA Hall of Very Good candidates.
Oliveira - Third time's the charm.
Silva - MDK KTFO
Ortiz - If we're being honest, neither guy has looked all that impressive recently.
Coté - Le has always been overrated. Coté has huge punching power and good takedown defense, and has been fighting more regularly.
Maia - Not a homer pick. Kim is nothing special standing, and Maia should have a clear edge on the ground. Also, Kim's gas tank blows.
Mendes - Ehhhhh. I've talked #### about Mendes' style for a while now, but he's great at what he does. Really hope Cody pulls it off, though.
Menjivar - I honestly think very little of Easton, and Menjivar has far superior technique in all areas of the game.
Camões - Rolling the dice. Guillard has the edge on paper, but how many times has he been submitted in similar situations?
Tibau - Again, hate his style, but he's effective and doesn't lose to random dudes. Khabib would have to be much better than I expect.
Fukuda - Going with the veteran grappler, but who knows.
Alessio - One of my favorite MMA Hall of Very Good candidates.
Oliveira - Third time's the charm.
derek245583
Footballguy
7:30 ET the fights start right?
modogg
Footballguy
i think so. I think there is one fight on facebook, the rest are on PPV or the Fuel/FX undercard (not sure which channel has the undercard)
Hoos First
Footballguy
FX at 8
Sebowski
Footballguy
Silva by destruction
Forrest by decision - Hoping these guys put on a little bit of a show, but can see this one being pretty slow.
Le by decision - Not a Cote fan. Le will control the exchanges and the grappling. Don't see Cote putting Le in any danger at all
Mendes - Working with the 209 Bros has to be helping McKenzie. I will be rooti8ng for him. Mendes is a tier above him right now though.
Forrest by decision - Hoping these guys put on a little bit of a show, but can see this one being pretty slow.
Le by decision - Not a Cote fan. Le will control the exchanges and the grappling. Don't see Cote putting Le in any danger at all
Mendes - Working with the 209 Bros has to be helping McKenzie. I will be rooti8ng for him. Mendes is a tier above him right now though.
derek245583
Footballguy
Took Allesio +140
modogg
Footballguy
looks like it will be 19-19 going into the 3rd
kutta
Footballguy
Just wanted to get on the record with my "Silva in the 3rd" pick.
I think the first round is a little slow as they feel each other out. Sonnen may get a take down and will at least try as few, but Silva won't go nuts on him.
In the 2nd, Silva will find his range and start beating on Sonnen pretty good.
Sonnen is a mess in the third and Silva finishes him off with TKO with 2:15 left in the round.
Take it to the bank.
I think the first round is a little slow as they feel each other out. Sonnen may get a take down and will at least try as few, but Silva won't go nuts on him.
In the 2nd, Silva will find his range and start beating on Sonnen pretty good.
Sonnen is a mess in the third and Silva finishes him off with TKO with 2:15 left in the round.
Take it to the bank.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
looks like a good night for wrestlers...
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Roller 29-28
Take downs and getting repeatedly beaten thereafter IS fighting Allesio.
Take downs and getting repeatedly beaten thereafter IS fighting Allesio.
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derek245583
Footballguy
Agreed, but that is a brutally boring fight. Wrestlers suck.
derek245583
Footballguy
Next fight ITD +155
modogg
Footballguy
Well, specifically Roller sucks. I'll bet against him again next time. I don't know why they chose to televise that fight instead of the Oliveira fight, they had to know it wasn't going to be exciting. And it isn't like Roller deserves a higher position on any card
skillz
Footballguy
It's sucked me in too. First time I bought a UFC PPV. Hoping Chael gets the W. I could listen to that guy talk all day. Listened to him on the Joe Rogan podcast for over 2 hours and he's mostly shtick but it's still entertaining to listen to him.
derek245583
Footballguy
Carlos Boozer is gonna knock him out
modogg
Footballguy
i don't think it comes on before 11 EST. I think quite a few of the fights on the main card will go full distance.And Ricky is kicking the crap out of Phillipou. Only thing that sucks is these Nevada judges love their punches, and don't always consider kicks equal to punches. I think Ricky should have this 2nd round, and it is probably 19-19 going to the 3rd again
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Boozer looks like he could knock this guy out at any moment with that right hand.
modogg
Footballguy
Same could be said about Phillipou's liver leaking out the side of his body from those body kicks and punches in the clinchETA: and Goldy and Rogan seem awfully bias in this one. Not sure why. I think Ricky won that 2nd round, and i think a lot of the live UFC blogs agree
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
It's over.
modogg
Footballguy
Yup. I don't think Phillipou wants to get back in this one, sounded like he got shot. Shame because Ricky landed a real nice body kick in that exchange too
gmbacm
Footballguy
So could he have choose to not continue, then win by dq there?Yup. I don't think Phillipou wants to get back in this one, sounded like he got shot. Shame because Ricky landed a real nice body kick in that exchange too
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Boozer 29-28
Think it was close though.
Kudos for continuing. Nothing scarier than those pokes in the eyes.
Think it was close though.
Kudos for continuing. Nothing scarier than those pokes in the eyes.
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