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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (4 Viewers)
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SIDA!
Footballguy
Going back to your first comment that I replied to above...it is fascinating to see how people respond/gravitate toward certain fighters. Many of our opinions can be formed off of an initial impression or a snippet from an interview or whatever.
Condit and Cerrone are both very confident, cocky fighters. While I would argue that their confidence generally comes out in a much different manner than McGregor's,...I am sure if you were to go back and look at various interviews that at certain times each of them may have appeared or sounded disrespectful towards other fighters.
In the fight game where every man is truly on an island it is always going to be a delicate balance between being confident in yourself, hyping a fight, getting yourself hyped for a fight, and also being respectful towards opponents.
kutta
Footballguy
Agreed, but I just really hate the outward disrespect I see from guys like the Diaz brothers and McGregor. I feel like it cheapens the sport. Sure, most fighters are confident and you have to have some swagger to even step in the ring, but that doesn't mean should act like those guys do.
I've never seen Cerrone or Condit act anywhere close to the Diaz brothers or McGregor. There is a big difference. Some people like the bravado and others don't. That's what makes this so much fun.
I will say that it works to promote fights. You enjoy their antics so you want to see the fights. I hate their antics so I want to see their fights in the hopes that they lose.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
McGregor has backed it up so far which is a big difference IMO. If/when he starts losing, his shtick will wear thin pretty quick (big fan though).
I love guys who have a unique style like McGregor, Diaz's, Machida, Silva, Gunnar, Oliveira, etc. over generic boxer/wrestlers like Mendes, Edgar, Hendricks, Weidman, Cain, etc.
I love guys who have a unique style like McGregor, Diaz's, Machida, Silva, Gunnar, Oliveira, etc. over generic boxer/wrestlers like Mendes, Edgar, Hendricks, Weidman, Cain, etc.
SIDA!
Footballguy
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kutta
Footballguy
I do agree there is a difference, but grabbing Aldo's belt at the press conference was a pretty punkish move.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I am not a big fan of interim champs.
While it may be impractical from a business aspect, I would prefer the following:
If a defending champ has to pull out of a title fight, the following should happen
1) title is stripped from current champ
2) his contender in the fight and the next most eligible fighter then fight for the title
3) if and when the hurt former champ returns, his first fight can be for the belt if he chooses.
While it may be impractical from a business aspect, I would prefer the following:
If a defending champ has to pull out of a title fight, the following should happen
1) title is stripped from current champ
2) his contender in the fight and the next most eligible fighter then fight for the title
3) if and when the hurt former champ returns, his first fight can be for the belt if he chooses.
SIDA!
Footballguy
As much as I am a McGregor fanboy...I don't think Aldo should be stripped of a title just because he got injured during training for the fight. I think that is kind of douchey. Not really a fan of interim titles myself, but not sure what the best answer is to this recurring problem.
Miss a second fight and stripped I can get behind. I realize that Aldo has missed fights before...but I think you have to miss at least two fights or some time length of a certain duration without a defense.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
It happens way too often these days IMO. I feel like stricter rules might force the fighters to rethink how easy it is for them to bail.
It does not have to be their first offense, but putting in any number of fights you bail on before losing the title might help the fighters mentality.
I feel like back in the day, fighters fought when they were banged up. Now it feels like fighters only fight if they are in perfect condition.
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
My buddy's sister makes her UFC debut on Sunday, Michelle Waterson! 
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I'll go:
Mendes
Lawler
Bermudez
Thatch
Almeida
also, Matt Brown & Quick Swick on the prelims.
I don't actually expect Mendes to win, but I can't stand McDooshnozzle.
Mendes
Lawler
Bermudez
Thatch
Almeida
also, Matt Brown & Quick Swick on the prelims.
I don't actually expect Mendes to win, but I can't stand McDooshnozzle.
Possum
Footballguy
I like your picks for the first three main card fights, but I think Rory gets his revenge on Lawler tomorrow, and I think Swick is gonna get beaten up. Brown-Means is going to be a war, think you got that one right too.
Hard to pick the main event - I'm rooting for Conor because a win by him will put some excitement back in the division. I would've probably given him a slight edge against Aldo, but I'd have to bet on the most likely outcome being that Mendes is going to hump his way to a decision win, though.
NutterButter
Footballguy
How the hell is McGregor the main event when Lawler is the champ? This McGregor hype is stupid. I hope Mendes crushes him. I hate MacDonald as well so this should be a good card for rooting interest.
modogg
Footballguy
because McGregor is almost the sole reason for 75% of the PPV buys and sales. you can hate him, but the man sells fights
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I picked Swick mostly because he's an old school dude, and I've met him a couple times. I think he's like 35 or so, so he's gotta be getting close to the end.
NutterButter
Footballguy
so, put him before the championship fight. people are still going to buy the ppv. its unheard of and just plain stupid that a championship fight in the welterweight division isn't the main event.
NutterButter
Footballguy
SIDA!
Footballguy
When I read a comment like this, it really makes me question and discount just about anything you have to say. You could tell me the Earth revolves around the sun and I would double check to confirm.
NutterButter
Footballguy
Possum
Footballguy
cool - yeah I almost always root for old schoolers like that too. I think this Garcia kid is a tall order for him though. Like you said, Swick is getting pretty long in the tooth and also hasn't fought in a couple years because of injuries - this feels like a matchup of a vet without much left in the tank vs. a young athletic KO artist, and those aren't usually good for the old guy.
Possum
Footballguy
I agree that it's crazy that an actual title fight at 170 is getting second billing to an interim title fight at 145, but it's smart business from a money standpoint. PPV buys aren't what they used to be these days and Mcgregor's one of the few names that can still sell an event, so Dana's gonna ride that train as far as he can.so, put him before the championship fight. people are still going to buy the ppv. its unheard of and just plain stupid that a championship fight in the welterweight division isn't the main event.
NutterButter
Footballguy
I'm surprised they're shooting their whole load on this one card. These are two of the bigger drawing fights you're going to see. The McGregor fight would've sold big regardless. The Lawler fight is just icing.I agree that it's crazy that an actual title fight at 170 is getting second billing to an interim title fight at 145, but it's smart business from a money standpoint. PPV buys aren't what they used to be these days and Mcgregor's one of the few names that can still sell an event, so Dana's gonna ride that train as far as he can.so, put him before the championship fight. people are still going to buy the ppv. its unheard of and just plain stupid that a championship fight in the welterweight division isn't the main event.
Possum
Footballguy
I've been picking Thatch to win tonight but the more I think about this one, the more I'm starting to have second thoughts on that. Nelson got overpowered against Story, and Thatch is even bigger and stronger and a brutal striker.
but in the Bendo-Thatch fight, Thatch had a really tough time with Henderson's grappling and elusiveness, and those are both strengths for Gunnar. Thatch also looked pretty bad on the ground there, and Nelson has at least as good BJJ as Ben (and probably better).
but in the Bendo-Thatch fight, Thatch had a really tough time with Henderson's grappling and elusiveness, and those are both strengths for Gunnar. Thatch also looked pretty bad on the ground there, and Nelson has at least as good BJJ as Ben (and probably better).
hooter311
Footballguy
I have the same read on it, the only thing I really am confident in is the fight finishing. Either Thatch ending on the feet early, or Gunnar on the ground late.
Thatch went down real easy against Bendo as the fight wore on, and Gunnar uses a lot of karate/judo hybrid trips. Bendo is probably a little bigger at 170 than Gunnar is even though it wasn't his regular weight class.
Awesome, awesome fight as booked. This card is great.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
a reminder that TUF final is on tomorrow (Sunday) at 7pm on fox sports 1. would have forgot all about it.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Hooter and Mo like Mendes. Just finished up reading the wagering thread. Sucks that I won't be home til 1030-11 tonight so I have to lock everything in and watch on delay. Enjoy the evening guys.
EYLive
Footballguy
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
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IC FBGCav
Footballguy
When my buddy asked me how I can hate McGregor so much but be such a big fan of the Diaz bros, I told him: The Diaz bros (Nick particularly) are dumb as a box of rocks... Connor is just pretending to be.
I think he has a bright future in the sport but is way overhyped right now. I am praying he gets put in his place tonight. Then we'll see how many fans he really has.
You guys remember when Brock Lesnar and Kimbo Slice where the big names attracting the "casual" MMA fan right?
kutta
Footballguy
You really think Mendes has no chance? I like him to win. I also like Lawler to win.
The only thing that scares me about Mendes is he didn't have much time to prepare. But he stays in pretty good shape all the time so he should be fine.
kutta
Footballguy
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Just to be clear. It's all or nothing.
If Mendes and Lawler win, you owe me 100.
If McGregor and McDonald win, I owe you 100.
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IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'll be pulling for McGregor and Lawler, but if I were to lay down $$$, it would be on Mendes and McDonald. Wrestling > striking typically.
SIDA!
Footballguy
Well, I am pulling for the Big Mac attack of McGregor and MacDonald.
The great thing about these fights is each side has legitimate arguments, strengths and weaknesses, for why their guy should win. I will not be surprised one bit if Mendes and Lawler win. But, here is how I see the Mendes/McGregor fight playing out.
I don't think Mendes can strike with McGregor. McGregor is superior here and on top of the reach advantage he also has the height. I see Mendes getting flustered without being able to get within range.
He will then resort to what he knows best and is his strength. I see him going for the take down and though he might in fact get McGregor to the ground a couple of times I believe McGregor will be able to scramble and get back to his feet quickly. I also think McGregor has some great sprawling ability and again...with his height and reach will be able to stuff most of the take down attempts.
I then see the fight turning into a replay of the Esparza/Jedrzejczyk. In that fight, Esparza could not stand and strike and got toasted. Then stuffed on weak take downs that sapped her energy.
I ultimately see Conor winning by TKO stoppage.
Alternatively, Mendes has great power and though Conor has yet to really get rocked as far as I can recall he has a tendency to drop his hands. If Mendes can drop a bomb on Conor and shake him up there is no telling what might happen.
I hear and read time and time again critical things about McGregor and MacDonald. These guys are still young fighters. To think that just because Conor hasn't demonstrated wrestling skills in the Octagon against an opponent that his wrestling skills are non-existent or circa 2010 it a woeful miscalculation. As much as this is an area of strength for Mendes I really think the advantage has been dramatically overblown.
The fighter that McGregor is today versus a year ago are probably vast. The notion that MacDonald may have only made marginal improvements since he last fought Lawler would be silly.
One final thought. As fans of any sport, we tend to place to suggest that the differences between fighters, baseball players, teams is far greater than it actually is. When you are dealing with elite talent (e.g. any professional athlete who makes it to the top of the food chain like the UFC, MLB, NFL, etc) the differences between the best and the very good is microscopic.
On any given Sunday (pardon the cliche) or any given fight...just the slightest change in the location of a punch landing or a pitch being thrown can change the outcome in a split second. We as fans blow these things out of proportion.
I watched an interview of Tim Lincecum sometime in the past year I think where it was talking about his struggles after being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. He expanded upon this in a way I wish I could repeat verbatim. But it was along the lines of this where even the weakest players in the game at the MLB were all-world studs from their area...the absolute best of the best.
So, I guess that it a long-winded way of saying that anything can happen and I don't believe that just because a fighter wins a fight that he is the better fighter, etc. It is like trying to argue that a pitcher with a 4+ ERA and lots of run support with 20 wins is better than a guy who had a sub 3 ERA and no run support with 12 wins and 10 losses.
The great thing about these fights is each side has legitimate arguments, strengths and weaknesses, for why their guy should win. I will not be surprised one bit if Mendes and Lawler win. But, here is how I see the Mendes/McGregor fight playing out.
I don't think Mendes can strike with McGregor. McGregor is superior here and on top of the reach advantage he also has the height. I see Mendes getting flustered without being able to get within range.
He will then resort to what he knows best and is his strength. I see him going for the take down and though he might in fact get McGregor to the ground a couple of times I believe McGregor will be able to scramble and get back to his feet quickly. I also think McGregor has some great sprawling ability and again...with his height and reach will be able to stuff most of the take down attempts.
I then see the fight turning into a replay of the Esparza/Jedrzejczyk. In that fight, Esparza could not stand and strike and got toasted. Then stuffed on weak take downs that sapped her energy.
I ultimately see Conor winning by TKO stoppage.
Alternatively, Mendes has great power and though Conor has yet to really get rocked as far as I can recall he has a tendency to drop his hands. If Mendes can drop a bomb on Conor and shake him up there is no telling what might happen.
I hear and read time and time again critical things about McGregor and MacDonald. These guys are still young fighters. To think that just because Conor hasn't demonstrated wrestling skills in the Octagon against an opponent that his wrestling skills are non-existent or circa 2010 it a woeful miscalculation. As much as this is an area of strength for Mendes I really think the advantage has been dramatically overblown.
The fighter that McGregor is today versus a year ago are probably vast. The notion that MacDonald may have only made marginal improvements since he last fought Lawler would be silly.
One final thought. As fans of any sport, we tend to place to suggest that the differences between fighters, baseball players, teams is far greater than it actually is. When you are dealing with elite talent (e.g. any professional athlete who makes it to the top of the food chain like the UFC, MLB, NFL, etc) the differences between the best and the very good is microscopic.
On any given Sunday (pardon the cliche) or any given fight...just the slightest change in the location of a punch landing or a pitch being thrown can change the outcome in a split second. We as fans blow these things out of proportion.
I watched an interview of Tim Lincecum sometime in the past year I think where it was talking about his struggles after being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. He expanded upon this in a way I wish I could repeat verbatim. But it was along the lines of this where even the weakest players in the game at the MLB were all-world studs from their area...the absolute best of the best.
So, I guess that it a long-winded way of saying that anything can happen and I don't believe that just because a fighter wins a fight that he is the better fighter, etc. It is like trying to argue that a pitcher with a 4+ ERA and lots of run support with 20 wins is better than a guy who had a sub 3 ERA and no run support with 12 wins and 10 losses.
SIDA!
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Mendes trains with guys like Faber, TJ, and Joe B every single day. Conor is likely much much easier than a random daily practice for Mendes in terms of grappling. The advantage of a truly top gym really can't be over-stated here, IMO. If Conor somehow has acquired the wrestling to hold off Mendes, he'll be literally the first Western European to do so ever without spending time in a major US gym. See Gustafson vs Davis, then vs Jones a few years later, etc. Gunnar and random Irish dudes <<<<< Faber etc at Alpha Male. IMO this is Mendes' fight to lose; if he fights smart, he'll beat up Conor for 5 rounds 50 - 45.