sheerterror
Footballguy
That Cerrone-Varner fight was unbelievable. Sucks it ended the way it did but it was some very good back and forth action. Really made me a fan of the WEC, which I never really watched all that much of prior to this.
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
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modogg
Footballguy
yeah it reminded me of that Hasim Rahman match from a few years back (http://www.thescore.ca/blogs/footy/hasim-rahman11.jpg). he is a tough dude though. it sucks because it was a real good fight. Personally i think that poke in the eye Cerrone got looked jsut as rough as the knee Varner caught, but of course i say this as i am stuffing potato chips in my mouth watching the two of them fight. Cerrone looked impressive, and Varner did what he had to to do to win. I have to think we will see a rematch soon between these 2, and i'll take Cerrone again next time.On a side note, the funniest part was when Varner was standing up for the final read, and his corner guy went to put a hat on him after he just got kneed in the head. You see Jamie swat at the guy who was trying to get all of the promo stuff in he could when he was standing to get to the center of the ring.
and seeing that i went 1-2 for tonight, let's start looking at this upcoming card. here are the preliminary, unofficial lines that aren't in the books i have seen:
Akihiro Gono +640
Jon Fitch -680
Dong-Hyun Kim +190
Karo "The Heat" Parisyan -210
Clay "The Carpenter" Guida -115
Nate Diaz -125
Christian "The Hungarian Nightmare" Wellisch +340
Jake O'Brien -360
Jon Jones +310
Stephan "The American Psycho" Bonnar -330
Dan Cramer +170
Matt Arroyo -180
John Howard +560
Chris Wilson -600
Manvel "Pitbull" Gamburyan +100
Thiago Tavares -110
SO anybody see anything they really like?
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, WEC always puts on a good show with exciting fights. i don't know how they do it, and i wasn't really totally into it either, but erveytime it is on and i catch it i love it.
modogg
Footballguy
I just watched Dana White's Vlog Day 1, and he interviewed a bunch of fighters at the UFC event who they think will win. Almost all of them picked BJ to win. Now you guys got me a little nervous, but then i see highlights of GSP and his last 3 fights, and i still can't see how BJ will win. c'mon, why do you feel BJ will win?
zander_s
Footballguy
zander_s
Footballguy
Stevenson over Diego? HmmmmI'm gonna have to think on that one.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I'm definitely backing Machida, hoping the line continues to drop as we get closer to Saturday though.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
I will be rooting for GSP, but purely from a betting perspective I think BJ Penn is the better value
They are very evenly matched fighters IMO, so being able to get up to +166 on Penn (at Pinnacle) seems too good to be true
They are very evenly matched fighters IMO, so being able to get up to +166 on Penn (at Pinnacle) seems too good to be true
Gadabout
Footballguy
Prolly cuz a focused BJ Penn (and he will be focused) is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
Deadpool
Footballguy
i agree...
Abrantes
Footballguy
Hard to pick once you get to the very best 5 or 6 pound for pound fighters out there, but I guess we'll have a clearer picture after this fight. I'm taking GSP in a very competitive fight, personally. Strictly from a betting perspective, BJ is the better choice, though.
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modogg
Footballguy
i thought about it for a bit too, but i like the odds with Stevenson and wasn't sure which direction this would go. Diego is a sick dude, but my thoughts are that he was in good shape at 170, and this is his first fight at 155. I am not sure how much he is used to dropping weight like that, but i know for quite a few fighters their first fight at a lower weight is always pretty rough (i can only think of Mike Swick and Brandon Vera off the top of my head, but there are others), and Joe Stevenson has a good build to be able to fight Diego on the ground. I am not much of a Stevenson fan actually (mostly because dude cost me a boatload when i bet on Melvin Guillard over him), but i think he will come out strong after his loss to BJ and he has had a lot of time to get ready for this one.zander_s said:
zander_s
Footballguy
Good points!I'm starting to lean Stevenson.
modogg
Footballguy
Manny is a good pick, but we haven't seen him fight much more than a round. i also like Thiago Tavares a lot so i decided to stay away, but Manny should win this one (better stand up then Thiago, unless he has improved much since his earlier fights).and you guys are right with the odds and BJ, i just really can't see how GSP will lose this fight. I don't think BJ can knock out GSP because he doesn't have that kind of power (Caul Uno obviously an exception here, still an absoultely nasty fight), and I can't see George getting submitted because of his growth with his BJJ. do people agree that GSP has the advantage if the fight goes past 3 rounds? i think the whole Penn and his non-conditioning is way over-rated, but looking at fights like the GSP-Fitch fight GSP is dangerous in all 5 rounds. I think GSP's 2 losses (Hughes and Serra) were mental losses, and i think the only way BJ can win is if GSP is not in the right mindset to fight BJ, and i don't think Greg Jackson would let that happen. The last time i was this confident though was the Eagles vs. the Cards 2 weeks ago and I didn't think there was any way the Eagles could lose that oneDeadpool said:
Either way, i can't see how this won't be a great fight
Abrantes
Footballguy
Although I'm also shying away from any bets on that fight, I think a standup battle definitely favors Thiago. He's always had excellent Muay Thai, but when he got in the UFC, all he wanted to do was submit his opponents on the ground, so he never fully commited to the striking game. He's looked more comfortable on his feet recently, which along with his sizable reach advantage, bodes well for him if they decide to make this a brawl (although I suspect Manny has a different strategy in mind).
modogg
Footballguy
I'm glad to hear that about Thiago, i liked the guy for sometime but was not that familiar with his Muay Thai bkgd. I wonder what kind of impact that Manny-Rob Emerson fight will have about his style. He loves coming out full throttle and just throwing, but nobody is taken by surprise by that anymore. I ust hope we get to see it
modogg
Footballguy
I think Clay has fought the tougher competition lately. Those Diaz boys always are looking to fight, but i hope we see some of the old Clay when he comes out just ready to brawl. I think Guida may have one of the best entrances in the UFC these days, the guy is so pumped coming out you can't help but root for him. i am hoping that Diaz's BJJ makes Guida think more about standing and trading with him. i think if he trys to ground and pound he can get submitted by Diaz as well.
I use 5dimes and it is pretty reliable.
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sheerterror
Footballguy
I heard an unconfirmed rumor at another board ("insider") that Karo is coming into this fight hurt. Kim is ~+250ish i believe, seems like good value given these circumstances.
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modogg
Footballguy
man i hope so. I unloaded a lot on Kim earlier today when i had a chance. more than i should have. Kim is good, but Karo is very good too. I know Karo has talked extensively in the past about severe panic attacks he gets before fights. i am thinking he may not come in with the best mindset, and as long as Kim doesn't get submitted or KO'd, he should take a decision if Karo is off his game.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Local just released their lines for this fight:
St. Pierre -180/Penn +150: I side with GSP here, but it will likely be a no play. I'd rather just enjoy the fight.
Machida -280/Silva +220:
I was hoping for a much better price than this on Machida, however this will still be my biggest play of the night. Hopfully it gets down to the -250 range.
Also looking to play Kim at +220, Diaz -115, Arroyo -200 and possibly Tavares -120. No line up for Fitch for some reason, but I've seen -600 most places, which is more than I'm willing to lay.
St. Pierre -180/Penn +150: I side with GSP here, but it will likely be a no play. I'd rather just enjoy the fight.
Machida -280/Silva +220:
I was hoping for a much better price than this on Machida, however this will still be my biggest play of the night. Hopfully it gets down to the -250 range.Also looking to play Kim at +220, Diaz -115, Arroyo -200 and possibly Tavares -120. No line up for Fitch for some reason, but I've seen -600 most places, which is more than I'm willing to lay.
modogg
Footballguy
My thought is Karo shows. I think the same site (mmamania) has an interview with Karo from yesterday and they didn't mention anything about him being in any trouble of going. Then i read how he has an interview, maybe on UFC.com, where people say he sounds horrible in terms of really congested and just sounding sick. who knows, but my guess is Karo shows because he needs to get paid. he hasn't fought in about a year, and i don't know what other income he has but this could be the bulk of it. My guess is he shows, but if he will be completely into the fight i don't know. I look forward to seeing the weigh-ins and seeing if he is there and how he looks
modogg
Footballguy
you should be good. I actually think Cramer has a chance to take Arroyo (though i like Arroyo a lot) so i didn't want to take anything there. Arroyo should win, but Cramer has good stand-up that could handle Arroyo. One bet i was hoping would garner better odds is the John Jones-Bonner fight. I think Jon Jones is a monster, and is going to be quite a force in the near future. good test here, but he could very well win. I was hoping the line for Jones would be better then +140, and i still may put a little on him, but that is one to think about. and my bets so far is i went heavy with GSP and on Kim. I am really banking on Karo not coming in 100%Local just released their lines for this fight:St. Pierre -180/Penn +150: I side with GSP here, but it will likely be a no play. I'd rather just enjoy the fight.Machida -280/Silva +220:
sheerterror
Footballguy
Ideally, Karo is coming in knowing that after his last showing and all the reports that he has been having panic attacks etc. and "forces" himself into this fight, even if he isn't 100% physically or mentally. There's great value in Kim if that becomes the case.Looking around, I don't think too many people are getting that much better of a price on Machida - althought Sportsbook had him at -245, but I just don't have enough in that account to make a sizeable bet on him despite the better price...besides, I'd rather deal with the real money with my local and his -280. It's been covered ad naseum in a lot of writeups on the web, but I really think Machida presents a tremendous style mismatch for Silva. The guy is just so damn patient and accurate that he'll outscore Silva if Silva tries to outwait/outstrike him. He's also got tremendous takedown defense, and if the fight does manage to go to the ground, he's got solid BJJ to lock in a sub. I also think that this is a great fight to set Machida up and put him into that upper echelon of light heavyweights and put him in contention for a title shot. He gets a "name" opponent who also has an astonishing record, yet when you consider the respective styles of each fighter, this is a fight that Machida should win more often than not, so he still gets quite a bit of credibility added to his resume with a victory.
If I didn't get so damn gunshy after that Nog fight regarding laying big vig on fights I was 100% confident in, I'd have won quite a bit more on Barnett and Fedor than I did..and I'd be looking to lay a lot more on this fight. It's just one of these feelings I have that it's a chance to make a nice sized score. Maybe Bball goes well tonight and tomorrow afternoon and allows me to justify laying more here.
modogg
Footballguy
I remember when Affliction first started with some of the UFC guys. My fiance knows i am a big GSP fan and was going to get me a GSP-Afflictio shirt, and i told her i had no desire to ever wear an $80 t-shirt. I am so thankful she never got one for me, it is real funny seeing those crowds now adays, it is seriously getting out of control. I just hope Mask's face paint catches on more and the same guys with the faux hawks start wearing face paint.
modogg
Footballguy
I think Machida definately wins this one too. I am trying to remember all of Thiago's fights, but Machida has always come in ready. I think you are safe holding out until tomorrow to see because that Machida line won't go up a lot (at least i don't think). he isn't popular with the mainstream crowd, and they won't put much money on him. I think he definately wins. and the weigh-ins are being shown all over ESPN, and i know on DirecTV there are 4 channels or so going to have them on at 7. I have put so much money on bball and UFC this weekend, it could really be an absolutely terrible weekend. GL to all of us
sheerterror
Footballguy
We'll be OK buddy, it's all about building the bankroll for GooRoo's Superbowl props!Re: Silva's fights, I haven't seen all of them but I've heard someone mention that his most "impressive" win seemed to be against Tomas Drwal (who? lol) meanwhile, Machida's resume includes wins against BJ Penn, Rich Frankling (both in Pride obviously) and Tito Ortiz. Now, obviously, he didn't fight any of these fighters at their true peak necessarily, but have you ever seen a more impressive resume go as unnoticed publicly as his? All of this leads me to believe we are actually seeing significant value in this line at under -300 because so few people know just how good he is. If the public were aware that Machida realistically has a shot at the LH belt in the near future or if Silva didn't also sport an unblemished record, this would be getting bet up to into the 400s IMO.
modogg
Footballguy
thanks for the bolded above. i got a little over zealous with my picks, and realized I had more than i ought to have on tonight's bball and tomorrows UFC event. I think you are spot on with Machida, so you should be fine. I am trying to remember if he caught any real good shots against anybody in a bit, but he has avoided that. we haven't seen enough from Thiago to know what he can do, but Machida should be a safe betWe'll be OK buddy, it's all about building the bankroll for GooRoo's Superbowl props!
Re: Silva's fights, I haven't seen all of them but I've heard someone mention that his most "impressive" win seemed to be against Tomas Drwal (who? lol) meanwhile, Machida's resume includes wins against BJ Penn, Rich Frankling (both in Pride obviously) and Tito Ortiz. Now, obviously, he didn't fight any of these fighters at their true peak necessarily, but have you ever seen a more impressive resume go as unnoticed publicly as his? All of this leads me to believe we are actually seeing significant value in this line at under -300 because so few people know just how good he is. If the public were aware that Machida realistically has a shot at the LH belt in the near future or if Silva didn't also sport an unblemished record, this would be getting bet up to into the 400s IMO.
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sheerterror
Footballguy
Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.
So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.
ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.
So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.
ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.
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modogg
Footballguy
Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac
sheerterror
Footballguy
Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....
modogg
Footballguy
you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one
modogg
Footballguy
another guy i would love to put money on but i am out to unload on is Chris Wilson. I don't know a ton about John Howard, but i was watching some of Wilson's fights earlier today and i forgot how good he was. just in case anybody has a bunch of money laying around burning a hole in your pocket
sheerterror
Footballguy
http://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mmahttp://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one
I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.
FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Added parlay:
Tavares
Diaz
Donginator
Machida
Pays +1350
Tavares
Diaz
Donginator
Machida
Pays +1350
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, i've been following Performity for a long time as well. He had a bad run about 10-15 UFC shows ago and i stopped paying attn. to his picks, but i think that was the same time all of the crazy upsets were happening each card. I've heard the same thing about guys picking Kim before the news of Karo's injury, so that is why i unloaded on him. But i do feel better seeing the consensus with picking Kimhttp://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mmahttp://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94
I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.
FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.
Abrantes
Footballguy
Chris Wilson is a bad mofo. Dude even gave Jon Fitch a rough time in their fight. He's probably the surest bet on the whole card.
modogg
Footballguy
wow, nice. Where did you get a parlay with these guys? It wasn't sportsbook was it? i love the idea of taking a parlay with some of these guys. Definately a good way to do it.
Abrantes
Footballguy
In my original predictions for the card a week ago, I figured that the more experienced Karo would probably run over Kim, who looked in trouble even against the mediocre Matt Brown. Still, I'm thinking Kim corrected the problems he had with his gas tank, while Karo looked horribly soft at the weigh-in and everyone is seemingly concerned over his panic attacks and mental state. Looks more and more like Kim is a great bet.Yeah, i've been following Performity for a long time as well. He had a bad run about 10-15 UFC shows ago and i stopped paying attn. to his picks, but i think that was the same time all of the crazy upsets were happening each card. I've heard the same thing about guys picking Kim before the news of Karo's injury, so that is why i unloaded on him. But i do feel better seeing the consensus with picking Kimhttp://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mmahttp://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94
I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.
FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Actually - my local accepts them. I bet through a site that has options for just about everything you can find on a regular online book, but it's all on credit then we meet 1x/week to collect or pay.
modogg
Footballguy
thanks. A buddy of mine tried connecting me with some deal like that, but i was getting over my compulsive gambling and wanted to avoid it. Of course now i found these threads and am in pretty deep, but as long as we're winning all is good. i imagine that that system is real sweet for the NBA props and for options like the parlay you got here so maybe i should look back into it. as for tonight, Not starting off too well here with that bum who plays for San Diego Toreros, but the night is young
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