Ultimate Survivor - League 11 (1 Viewer)

[nittanylion]

Well, the Crown's still mine for now, but Week 1 looms ominously in the distance...

Drew the 1.01 - not my preferred Slot to Draft out of, but man's gotta do, and all that...

Very Solid Crew of Drafters. Nice job all around. From a Bye-Week perspective, next to nothing I targeted fell to me, so early on, I decided to make some lemonade. Remains to be seen if it's bitter...or sweet.

How things played out:

1.01 - Adrian Peterson - despite the drama that just won't go away, Peterson's 1st 5 Weeks wasn't something I could ignore in comparison to MJD schedule. Saddle up and ride that pony...

2.12/3.01 - Greg Jennings/Anquan Boldin - after what seemed like an eternity, the Draft came back to me. Bye Weeks be damned, at least they don't share one. Got me thinking about potentially working this high-risk, high reward angle the rest of the way.

4.12/5.01 - Philip Rivers/Tony Gonzalez - Again, I just couldn't bring myself to walk away from the Pass TD and PPR Value...just have to be focused the rest of the way to try and manage the risk.

6.12/7.01 - Donald Driver/Antonio Gates - take the talent, ignore the Byes. Keep a long view towards managing risk later on down the road.

8.12/9.01 - Ted Ginn/Trent Edwards - 1st Players since AP at 1.01 that didn't have a Week 4 or 5 Bye. Jeebus, you'd think I'd never done this before...

10.12/11.01 - Jerious Norwood/Darren Sproles - RB2BC in the making, built around PPR Upside. Back to the offsetting byes again. Maybe I'm the sane one? I'll keep telling myself that.

12.12/13.01 - Kevin Curtis/Patriots D/ST - scratch out some more PPR, and a D/ST with great 5-Week Value, Turnover and Scoring Upside...

14.12/15.01 - Davone Bess/Earl Bennett - Camarillo aside, locked down the Dolphins WR...whoo-hoo... Yet another WR with PPR potential coupled with an early Bye...what the hell am I thinking?

16.12/17.01 - Mewelde Moore/Jeremy Maclin - using glue and tongue depressors to patch together that PPR RB2, DeSean Jackson/Westie/McCoy/Celek/Evans can't catch all those balls, can they? Oy.

18.12/19.01 - Nate Kaeding/Jason Elam - hey if it works for Gonzo/Gates it might work at PK too?

20.12/21.01 - Chris Brown/Marc Bulger - I had a man-crush on Brown a few years ago...can't help but rekindle an old flame in the waning hours of this marathon. Bulger's pinkie might be gangrenous by Week 5, then again, he doesn't play in Cleveland...but it's close.

22.12 - Jared Cook - if Gates gets nicked, hoping Click-Clack 2 is anything but irrelevant.

Rivers, Edwards (vs Browns)/Bulger(vs Vikings) - let's hope I don't have to rely on Bulger for well, anything, but it is a League where PTD = 6, and he *might* have a spike in him here or there. I need to root SOMEONE to stay out of the Box Score...

APeterson and a Motley Crew (Norwood, Sproles, MeMoore, ChrBrown) - Counting on Peterson to be all he can be. Atl/SD/Pitt/Hou Offenses ought to be prolific enough for me to get enough out of this bunch to be relevant. Pretty much sacrificed RB2 to try and build some serious PPR elsewhere...this is what I get for hoping like hell that Felix Jones and Leon Washington would make it through the gauntlet. No Chester Taylor, either. Egad.

Boldin, Curtis, Maclin (Bye Week 4) / Jennings,Driver, EBennett (Bye Week 5) / Ginn, Bess (vs Bills, vs Jets) - counting on back to back home games vs Divisional Rivals to generate some WR3 #'s in Weeks 4/5. Risky strategy to say the least.

Gonzo (@49ers), Gates (@Steelers), JCook (@Jags, vs Colts) - if something happens to Gates, I like the shootout potential of those Jags and Colts games. If something happens to Gates, with all the rest of the risk I'm attempting to manage, a return to Leg 2 becomes well-nigh impossible. Geez, you'd think there was a Flex Option. Nope.

Kaeding/Elam - playing the same game as TE, but without the insurance. Hope old man Elam's leg doesn't atrophy until later in the Season.

Patriots - Bills, @Jets, Falcons, Ravens, @Broncos - plenty of opportunities here to cause general mayhem, accompanied by some sacks, mistakes, and maybe a score or 2...

Never in a million years thought my Team would look like this, or that I'd wind up buying into the idea of playing the hand I was being dealt through the swings right to the end.

Just...weird. I mean, there's some twisted logic to it all, but it's so convoluted...if this was Best Ball, rather than Survivor, I'd be a little more optimistic, but should at least be relatively stress-free through Weeks 1-3, dodge the 1-Cut Turk in Week 4, and pray like hell all the gambles pay off in Week 5 when the field trims from 6 to 4.

In the Kingdom of the Blind, and all that jazz...

Best of Luck to the rest of the Field!

 

[Jeff Haseley]

League 11 is in the books. Draft Results, Rosters

This leg of Ultimate Survivor covers Week 1 through Week 5. After Week 5, the teams that advance will draft a completely new team in a completely new league.

This league is a Best Ball, Survivor league. In Best Ball, your best available scoring line-up is automatically started each week.

In Survivor, the lowest scoring team (or teams) is (are) eliminated each week as follows:

* Week 1 - The two lowest scoring teams are eliminated

* Week 2 - The lowest scoring team is eliminated

* Week 3 - The two lowest scoring teams are eliminated

* Week 4 - The lowest scoring team is eliminated

* Week 5 - The two lowest scoring teams are eliminated

Staff:

Jeff Haseley, Jeff Tefertiller

Participants:

Nittanylion

Limp Ditka

IvanKaramazov

valence

Instinctive

George

Shadowfax

dgreen

Bostonfred

BusMan

Please say a few words about your team, how the draft went, your strategy, etc.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

My original plan had me drafting Moss at #3, but when MJD unexpectedly slipped I had to redo things a bit on the fly.

Campbell, Jason WAS QB - 8 Garrard, David JAC QB - 7 Manning, Eli NYG QB - 10I came into the draft expecting to take my first QB relatively late, but to take three of them to protect against injury (and hopefully for strength in numbers). That's exactly what happened. None of these guys is Tom Brady, but somebody out of this group should put up an acceptable score each week.

Bush, Reggie NOS RB (P) - 5 Harrison, Jerome CLE RB - 9 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 7 McClain, Le'Ron BAL RB - 7 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB - 4 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB (P) - 4

RB ended up being the strength of my team. MJD and Westbrook should be money most weeks, and Bush helps cover Westbrook's bye. This is a good group.

Hixon, Domenik NYG WR - 10 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR - 8 Jenkins, Michael ATL WR - 4 Stuckey, Chansi NYJ WR - 9 Ward, Hines PIT WR - 8 Welker, Wes NEP WR (P) - 8

Considering that I don't have a Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald on my squad, I think my WRs are okay. Welker, Holmes, and Ward figure to be my main contributors, and Hixon should help out too. The drawback of the QBBC strategy is that I was drafting QBs while other teams were adding to their WR depth, so I'm not as deep here as I would like.

McMichael, Randy STL TE (Q) - 9 Scaife, Bo TEN TE - 7

Crosby, Mason GBP PK - 5 Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 5 Rackers, Neil ARI PK - 4

Good kickers without byes went a little earlier than I expected, so I ended up blowing a bunch of late picks on guys with bye week issues. I really don't like having two guys off in week 5 at the same position, but oh well.

Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def - 4 Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def - 9

Minnesota is a good defense with a stupidly easy schedule during the contest period, so I came into the draft targeting them specifically. Arizona dropped a bit due to the bye and represented good value as a complementary D. Overall, I think this is a solid team that has a good chance to advance.

 

[george]

My strategy was to try and take advantage of the best ball format. I planned to have 3, probably 4 QBs and 3 Defenses since scoring is variable with these positions. I don't like my Forte pick in the 2nd round and likely should have went with a WR. I don't think I took advantage of the PPR part of the league and my WRs may be my downfall. I decided to wait on a TE and waited too long so ended up taking 3 to also try and take advantage of the best ball format. All 3TE (Miller/Fasano/Lewis) have the potential to have big games. My hope is that they take turns doing so each week.

Overall, I think my draft was okay. I like my QB/RB/Def makeup. Don't like my WR/TE options, especially with the PPR.

Roster:

QBs- I like my options. Took a late flyer on Sanchez with the hope that he gets some cheap TDs dumping off to TJones/Leon Washington

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

Ryan, Matt ATL QB

Delhomme, Jake CAR QB

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

RB-I feel I have a good mix here. Johnson is a force. Forte and Lewis will get yards. Stewart and Jackson could have some big games. And I don't have to decide each week who to start.

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

Forte, Matt CHI RB (P)

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB (P)

Lewis, Jamal CLE RB (P)

Jackson, Fred BUF RB

WR- My biggest disappointment. I've got some big question marks, but feel that Buf/Cle will both be throwing a lot to prove they can.

Edwards, Braylon CLE WR (P)

Owens, Terrell BUF WR (P)

Williams, Roy DAL WR

Chambers, Chris SDC WR

Clayton, Michael TBB WR (O)

TE-All are capable of big games, but none are elite. Hopefully, they take turns scoring big for me.

Miller, Heath PIT TE

Fasano, Anthony MIA TE

Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE

Kickers- Just wanted 2-3 that didn't have byes. But had to stick with 2 when I decided to take a 3rd TE.

Brown, Kris HOU PK

Scobee, Josh JAC PK

Defenses-They don't score Huge numbers but in a best ball format I like having several to account for the variability and not having to pick a starter.

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def

 

[dgreen]

I'm just hoping to make it to week 2. If, somehow, I get to week 3, I will declare victory. Seriously, I blew this thing bigtime.

 

[buck naked]

My original plan had me drafting Moss at #3, but when MJD unexpectedly slipped I had to redo things a bit on the fly.

Campbell, Jason WAS QB - 8 Garrard, David JAC QB - 7 Manning, Eli NYG QB - 10

I came into the draft expecting to take my first QB relatively late, but to take three of them to protect against injury (and hopefully for strength in numbers). That's exactly what happened. None of these guys is Tom Brady, but somebody out of this group should put up an acceptable score each week.

Bush, Reggie NOS RB (P) - 5 Harrison, Jerome CLE RB - 9 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 7 McClain, Le'Ron BAL RB - 7 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB - 4 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB (P) - 4

RB ended up being the strength of my team. MJD and Westbrook should be money most weeks, and Bush helps cover Westbrook's bye. This is a good group.

Hixon, Domenik NYG WR - 10 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR - 8 Jenkins, Michael ATL WR - 4 Stuckey, Chansi NYJ WR - 9 Ward, Hines PIT WR - 8 Welker, Wes NEP WR (P) - 8

Considering that I don't have a Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald on my squad, I think my WRs are okay. Welker, Holmes, and Ward figure to be my main contributors, and Hixon should help out too. The drawback of the QBBC strategy is that I was drafting QBs while other teams were adding to their WR depth, so I'm not as deep here as I would like.

McMichael, Randy STL TE (Q) - 9 Scaife, Bo TEN TE - 7

Crosby, Mason GBP PK - 5 Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 5 Rackers, Neil ARI PK - 4

Good kickers without byes went a little earlier than I expected, so I ended up blowing a bunch of late picks on guys with bye week issues. I really don't like having two guys off in week 5 at the same position, but oh well.

Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def - 4 Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def - 9

Minnesota is a good defense with a stupidly easy schedule during the contest period, so I came into the draft targeting them specifically. Arizona dropped a bit due to the bye and represented good value as a complementary D. Overall, I think this is a solid team that has a good chance to advance.

Excellent job. You have some bye week issues, but you may excel in the first 3 weeks of this thing.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

QBs

Carson Palmer 6.09

Shaun Hill 14.09

Matthew Stafford 15.04

I waited a little while on my QB, because after taking 3 consecutive WRs to begin the draft, I needed to secure some RBs. Palmer was there in the 6th and I felt if I let it slide any longer I would lose out on getting someone who has top 10 potential. I wanted to go with Jamarcus Russell as my backup, but he was taken, so I settled with Shaun Hill. I then took Stafford, because someone is going to have to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson. Hoping he gets the nod as the starter. The Lions have nothing to lose benching him.

RBs

Knowshon Moreno 4.09

Pierre Thomas 5.04

Joseph Addai 7.04

Donald Brown 10.09

Ahmad Bradshaw 11.04

Correll Buckhalter 21.04

After drafting 3 straight WRs to begin the draft, I needed RBs. Moreno at 4.09 was a great pick, IMO and then Pierre Thomas was there a round later, so I took him over Reggie Bush, who also was available. I knew I needed more RB depth, so the acquisition of the Colts backfield of AddaI and Donald Brown filled that void. Ahmad Bradshaw happened to fall right into my lap at 11.04. The Giants running game looks unstoppable and Bradshaw could get a few scores (if he scores from outside the 20, like last night's game). Buckhalter was insurance for Moreno.

WRs

Randy Moss 1.04

Steve Smith (CAR) 2.09

Dwayne Bowe 3.04

Lance Moore 8.09

Mark Bradley 16.09

Robert Meachem 17.04

Kenny Britt 20.09

It's hard to not have a strength at WR when you take three with your first three picks. Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are my team's core. If they don't produce, I'll be out by week two. Lance Moore was a nice pick in round 8 and I handcuffed Meachem to him later in round 17. Meachem is having a great camp. Hopefully things continue that way for him. Mark Bradley handcuffs Dwayne Bowe. Without Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs don't have many receiving threats. I've got a good chance for production with Bowe and Bradley. Kenny Britt was my last WR pick. I've always admired his talent since his freshman year at Rutgers. Someday he'll play in the NFL, I thought. Now he has his chance on a team that needs someone to stand up as a WR. Hopefully TEN doesn't sign Marivn Harrison.

TEs

Dustin Keller 9.04

Visanthe Shiancoe 12.09

This is a good, but not great combo. Both will be used fairly heavily in their offenses. If Keller can emerge as the Jets #2 receiving threat behind Cotchery, I'll be sitting pretty.

Defense

PHI 13.04

SF 19.04

I'll be riding the Eagles defense again this year. In week 4 when they have their bye, San Francisco hosts the Rams. Go Singletary!!

K

Lawrence Tynes 18.09

Dan Carpenter 22.09

Going with Tynes as my kicker. He has a week 10 bye, so no worries there, plus I like the Giants chances of scoring. He should have plenty of chances for FGs or PATs. Carpenter is insurance.

 

[BusMan]

Pre Draft Analysis/Setup

I used the default projections in the Draft Dominator and set up the software with the league rules. I fooled around a bit with setting the weekly weights higher to lower from week one to week five, but ultimately abandoned that plan as I simply tried to get a team that will post a high number in each week and therefore avoid the survivor sling blade. ADP is pretty useless in this short sprint league, but its hard to tell yourself that when you're staring at taking ADPs of the 6th and 8th round with your third and fourth round selections. Ultimately, my strategy was to ignore ADP (which was further reinforced when I drew the 12/13 turn) as it was impossible to assess what value would fall. Instead, I picked off the top of the list regardless of that annoying ADP number mocking me.

My experience in survivor leagues (last year's ultimate survivor and some of the SLs run in the mock draft forum) has shown that WRs are crucial in this format, especially when you have three starting spots to fill each week. My goal at the outset of the draft was to grab WRs at the top of my list that would excel in this PPR format. QBs, TEs, and, to a certain extent, RBs were marginalized in their value due to the lack of a flex spot and their lower starting numbers.

I only drafted one player with a bye during the league's span, and that was intentional, but I'm not sure it was the correct play. It certainly made it easier to pick the value at the top of my list, but I'm intrigued by nittanylion's approach. If he can get high value players with week four or five byes, he's bound to get higher returns in the non-bye weeks, putting himself in better position to avoid the cut downs. It is risky as he'll have less players available during those two weeks, but you can't win these things without taking a certain amount of risk.

The Draft

Lots of really good drafters in this one: Tefertiller and Haseley, who, of course, know what the heck they're doing; nittanylion, who won this whole thing last year (first place out of 144, including 24 staffers, is no joke); as well as some SL and MB regulars: bostonfred, Shadowfax, valence, etc.

1.12 - Peyton Manning, QB - IND/6: QB2 (after Brady) and best available value on my board. No bye issues is a bonus. This led directly to...

2.01 - Reggie Wayne, WR - IND/6: Top of the WR heap after Moss and AJ went. Plus I liked the synergy of having Peyton to Wayne bringing me lots of points at the top of my draft.

3.12 - Eddie Royal, WR - DEN/7: As the third round unfolded, I dreamed of a Royal/Marshall turn, but B-Marsh got grabbed by Tefertiller at 03.05. Despite that hit, I was still extremely pleased to grab the #6 WR on my board. Eddie Royal is going to be a nightmare in PPR leagues this year.

4.01 - Jerricho Cotchery, WR - NYJ/9: This one was mildly hard to pull the trigger on (although picking at the turn I was pretty much set in my picks by the time the draft made its way back to me). I kept staring at his ADP: 08.01. Was I taking him too high? I ultimately couldn't let that affect my decision, as he was the best value left on my board as WR17 (although I strongly considered Braylon Edwards).

5.12 - Ray Rice, RB - BAL/7: After grabbing my QB and top three wide outs, its time to address my RBs before they're all gone. I wasn't lucky enough to have any RB1s fall into my lap, but I'm OK with Rice as RB21 considering the strength at WR I was able to acquire.

6.01- Willie Parker, RB - PIT/8: Two straight AFC North backs in likely RBBCs. Nevertheless, he was RB22 on my board so I gladly took him. Hopefully he'll hold off Mendenhall and Moore for a vast majority of the early season production.

7.12 - Owen Daniels, TE - HOU/10: TEs were starting to move so I decided it was time to grab one before all the TE1s were gone. I was trying to anticipate positional runs since I was picking at the corner, and I think my timing was just right as six TEs went in Rounds 8 and 9.

8.01 - Josh Morgan, WR - SF/6: As a UVA alum with a pretty high hatred for all things Chokies, its a touch unpalatable to have two VT WRs on my squad. But value was my guide, and getting the 22nd receiver on my board as a WR4 seemed like the right play, collegiate alliances be damned.

9.12 - Earnest Graham - TB/8: With only two RBs rostered, its time to grab another one. I don't like Graham to get more touches than Ward, but I see him getting some good action nonetheless.

10.01 - Kyle Orton - DEN/7: I really didn't want to make this move. I'm a Broncos homer and have zero faith in Orton. I do have a load of confidence in McDaniels' stubbornness though, which to me, means Orton will get the first half of the season to lose his job. The offense should be dynamic despite Orton's propensity to throw it to the other team (maybe he's just getting it all out of his system in TC/preseason). I actually have him as the #6 QB on my board, so I have to take him here as he is just screaming "SUPER RISKY VALUE". My guess is the Broncos will have lots of throwing to do all year long. :fingerscrossed:

11.12 - Kevin Faulk, NE - NE/8: I love having Faulk in the best ball format. He catches passes out of the backfield and occasionally finds the endzone. Pretty decent for my fourth RB.

12.01 - Mike Walker, WR - JAC/7- Trying to stick to my strategy of loading up on WRs. Walker is a bit risky with his injury concerns and uncertainty about the Jaguars offense. Still the best WR on my board at this time, though.

13.12 - Indianapolis Colt, DEF - IND/6: Indy goes JAC, @MIA, @ARI, SEA, @TEN during this league. Hmm...

14.01 - Ricky Williams, RB - MIA/6: Icky Ricky was looking like value for a few rounds so I gladly scooped him here.

15.12 - Sidney Rice, WR - MIN/9: Rice, too, had been sticking around the top of my WR list for a bit. He could see some good early season action if Berrian's hamstring doesn't heal quickly.

16.01 - Tony Scheffler, TE - DEN/7: Yeah, another Bronco. I'm a sucker , I know. But decent value as TE13 on my board.

17.12 - Seattle Seahawks, DEF - SEA/7: Had them rated slightly lower than the Raiders but liked their complimentary schedule that matches up well with the Colts'.

18.01 - Brian Robiskie, WR - CLE/9: Not really easy to be excited about your WR7, but at least it seems like Cleveland with have to throw a lot to stay in/attempt to win games.

19.12 - Joe Nedney, PK - SF/6: Gotta grab a kicker before all the goods one are gone---oops too late! That said, he smells like a low-end PK1 in this format.

20.01 - Peyton Hillis, RB - DEN/7: Hey, at least I didn't grab Prater or the Broncos D or Chris Simms! No, I really wanted Hillis here and was worried he wouldn't make it back to me, such that I sloughed my second kicker. He continues to get rave reviews at TC and it seems like the Broncos are going to have to find a way to get him on the field. I love this guy.

21.12 - John Kasay, PK - CAR/4: My lone pick with a bye week issue. Perhaps I was getting a little sleepy at this point.

22.01 - Demetrius Williams, WR - BAL/7: One last WR for depth. I honestly know nothing about this cat. Perhaps he's a deep threat?

Apologies for typing "my board" so many, many times.

The Team

QB Peyton Manning, IND/6QB Kyle Orton "Hears a Boo", DEN/7RB Ray Rice, BAL/7RB Willie Parker, PIT/8RB Earnest Graham, TB/8RB Ricky Williams, MIA/6RB Kevin Faulk, NE/8RB Peyton Hillis, DEN/7WR Reggie Wayne, IND/6WR Eddie Royal, DEN/7WR Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ/8WR Josh Morgan, SF/6WR Sidney Rice, MIN/9WR Mike Walker, JAC/7WR Brian Robiskie, CLE/9WR Demetrius Williams, BAL/7TE Owen Daniels, HOU/10TE Tony Scheffler, DEN/7PK Joe Nedney, SF/6PK John Kasay, CAR/4DEF Indianapolis, IND/6DEF Seattle, SEA/7I like my QBs/WRs a lotI like my RBs OK.

I might have some TE/DEF/PK issues.

The Results...

Week 1 cuts: valence, Instinctive

Week 2 cut: Tefertiller

Week 3 cuts: bostonfred, Limp Ditka

Week 4 cut: IvanZaramazov

Week 5 cuts: dgreen, Haseley

Advancers: george, BusMan, nittanylion, ShadowFax

It was fun guys good luck to all!

 

[bostonfred]

Predraft thoughts:

- Obviously want to avoid players with week 4 and 5 byes early, but don't overdo it. Err on the side of week 4 byes, since there's only one elimination. If a couple teams seem to load up on week 4 byes early, then virtually disregard week 4 altogether and try to get the best talent.

- Don't overanalyze matchups for the first couple weeks, but focus on learning curve issues. For example, defenses that play against new QBs are better than defenses that play against weak offenses.

- Grab the shiny new toy if possible (e.g. Owens) in the hopes they will try to get the fans excited about the pickup.

- One big thing - avoid the high prices WRs in the early rounds. Don't waste an early pick on a guy who might blow up week one then put up a zero week two. Try to get a couple possession receivers like Welker, Mason, etc.

- Don't waste picks on players who might never score for your team or young players who are expected to take over a job later in the season. Go for the veteran who has the job now.

- Overspend at QB to capitalize on 6 point TDs and 1/20. Try to get three good QBs or two great ones.

- Try to get two stud RBs, another starter, and Maroney/Morris. New England has great matchups the first couple weeks, and I believe that Maroney is still the starter.

- Try to get a stud WR, a possession WR, and a little depth.

- Don't spend much on TEs - a lot of these guys come from the 16 team 2 PPR for TE survivor leagues and will overspend to get tight ends. Just get three decent ones.

- Take two kickers with late byes before the run - there are only 24 kickers in the league who have later byes, and some of them are in uncertain situations, so some teams are going to get stuck either taking three kickers, or only having one during a bye.

- Try to get at least one stud D. Early in the season, it seems like defenses are ahead of offense much like pitchers are ahead of batters early in the baseball season.

- Take three of each position except kicker.

- Make sure every pick counts - all starting players unless they're backups to my own guy.

Pick by pick:

1.11 11. Jackson, Steven STL RB - Excited when I saw two first round backs with later byes slipping to the end of the first in Jackson and Gore. I was shocked both were still here at the end of the first.

2.02 14. Gore, Frank SFO RB - Even more shocked to get Gore on the way back, but Busman started out with Manning/Wayne. Very happy with this start.

3.11 35. White, Roddy ATL WR - Not my favorite player, and he has a week 4 bye, but he was the last of the tier one WRs. Also, I was a little less worried about week 4 after Limp Ditka started with two backs with week 4 byes.

4.02 38. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB - One of the top 5 QBs. Yes, he has a week 5 bye, but QB scoring is high in this league. Would have taken Eddie Royal but Busman grabbed him the pick before. No other position was close.

5.11 59. Evans, Lee BUF WR - I didn't like Lee Evans here, but he had a good bye, and the only other quality WR here was Vincent Jackson (early bye, not enough receptions), Coles and Mason. I was hoping to get Mason in the 7th/8th as the WR frenzy died down - he'd slid in the earlier drafts and was very low on the MFL ADP rankings.

6.02 62. Warner, Kurt ARI QB - I already had Rodgers, but the opportunity to lock down two of the top five players at the position and virtually guarantee myself top scoring for the first five weeks was too valuable to pass up. The other WRs at this spot didn't really light my candle, and I felt set at RB.

7.11 83. Walter, Kevin HOU WR - Mason wasn't even close to the top of the WR list sorted by ADP, and Busman already had three studs, so I took the WR I thought he would be more likely to snag on me.

8.02 86. Mason, Derrick BAL WR - I lucked out. He did take a WR, but he took Josh Morgan. Love Mason in PPR survivor leagues.

9.11 107. Jones, Julius SEA RB - My third starting running back.

10.02 110. Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def - First fantasy defense taken, late bye week, lots of nationally televised games including the season opener.

11.11 131. Davis, Vernon SFO TE - My first TE. Hype without history

12.02 134. Celek, Brent PHI TE - My second TE. Even more hype with even less history.

13.11 155. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB - Like I said, I think he's the opening day starter. Love his value this late, especially paired with Morris. The Pats have a nice schedule early and it looks like they are going to score a lot.

14.02 158. Redskins, Washington WAS Def - Aside from the fact they added Haynesworth to an already stingy D, they have games at home against St. Louis (with Bulger's injured pinky), at Detroit, and home vs. a QB-muddled Tampa. I pulled the trigger on them over higher ranked Ds to get those games.

15.11 179. Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - He's an OK WR5. I think he gets more receptions than Miles Austin.

16.02 182. Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - Best kicker available with a late bye.

17.11 203. Baker, Chris NEP TE - Starting TE for the Pats this year.

18.02 206. Folk, Nick DAL PK - Best kicker available with a late bye.

19.11 227. Leinart, Matt ARI QB - Insurance for Warner. Might have taken him even if I didn't have Warner. Took him a little early as soon as the last starting QB went off the board because, to my dismay, someone had just bumped a thread in the Shark Pool about Warner limping.

20.02 230. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - Good defensive additions in the offseason. Week one they host Detroit. Week four they host the Jets and their unknown QB. Two home games against dicey QBs sounds good as a third defense.

21.11 251. Engram, Bobby KCC WR - If he has anything left in the tank, he's in the right situation. I would probably never take him in a normal league.

22.02 254. Morris, Sammy NEP RB - The fourth NE RB taken, I think he and Maroney are still the two guys to have in the NE backfield.

Leinart, Matt ARI QB - 4

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB - 5

Warner, Kurt ARI QB (P) - 4

Strongest QBs in the league. The Brady and Manning owners have terrible backups, so if either falters, they're going to struggle that week. Both have early byes, though, so I'll be flying solo the last two weeks if I make it that far.

Gore, Frank SFO RB - 6

Jackson, Steven STL RB - 9

Jones, Julius SEA RB - 7

Maroney, Laurence NEP RB - 8

Morris, Sammy NEP RB (P) - 8

One of the better running back groups in the league. Jackson/Gore up top is well above average. No early byes in the group.

Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - 6

Engram, Bobby KCC WR - 8

Evans, Lee BUF WR - 9

Mason, Derrick BAL WR - 7

Walter, Kevin HOU WR - 10

White, Roddy ATL WR - 4

White is a poor WR1/decent WR2 in this league, and Evans/Walter aren't consistent scorers. Love Mason in PPR - he's more like my WR2, and I would have taken him over Evans if I didn't think he'd slide. This is a below average group at an inconsistent position.

Baker, Chris NEP TE - 8

Celek, Brent PHI TE (P) - 4

Davis, Vernon SFO TE - 6

No studs, some potential. At least I have depth, which is important at an inconsistent position. Only 1 ppr for TEs devalues them compared to other survivors.

Folk, Nick DAL PK - 6

Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 9

Above average kickers with late byes.

Redskins, Washington WAS Def - 8

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - 5

Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def - 8

Steelers arguably the best fantasy D. At least one great matchup against an inexperienced or already-injured QB every week of the season:

Week 1: Detroit @ New Orleans

Week 2: St. Louis @ Washington

Week 3: Washington @ Detroit, Pittsburgh @ Cinci

Week 4: NY Jets @ New Orleans, Tampa @ Washington

Week 5: Pittsburgh @ Detroit

I was very pleased with this draft. A couple other notables:

- Ivan had a good draft, but he's at least as thin at WR/TE as I am and has no high end QBs.

- I like Jeff T's squad, too.

- I thought nittanylion shot himself in the foot by taking no starting RBs behind Peterson, two stud TEs (Gonzo/Gates), and only one D (New England).

- Limp Ditka had a decent draft, but his first two picks (Turner and DeAngelo) both had week 4 byes. To his credit, LenDale and Benson are decent one week fillins.

- George had a decent draft and seemed to go with a similar strategy to mine - take a few good WRs and load up at every other position. I especially liked the Fred Jackson pick.

- On that note, dgreen surprised me by taking Marshawn Lynch in the sixth round.

- Shadowfax did a good job of avoiding early round byes, and I think he targetted Portis because he usually starts strong and has good early matchups, but if you go by "normal" ADP his team is pretty weak. Not sure if he overthought it or not but I like the effort.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I looked at this as a Survivor league and tried to have a solid team. I was avoiding bye issues. I drafted conservatively for the most part. I took Brady at 1.05 with 6 point pass TD. Many scoffed when I took Favre in the last few rounds. But, he and Leftwich are decent bench guys. At RB, I was looking to stock up on NFL RB1 who could have big games. I like the top three guys to get carries early in the season. Plus, I think Hightower, Taylor, and Jennings could surprise. In Survivor leagues, I think the easiest position to committee is WR2/3/4. For this reason, I targeted the Bengal pair for upside and consistency. I am a little uneasy about Marshall coming out of the gate strong with the contract demands. But, I think the others could have some good games. The Schilens loss might hurt. I thought he was poised for a break out. Was surprised how far Muhammad fell, even with the bye issue. I like Cooley in PPR, and targeted two top kickers and defenses. The top passer, tight end, kickers, and defenses are an attempt to help make up for bad weeks elsewhere.

It was an interesting 24 hours, losing Schilens and gaining Favre. Overall, I do not love this team, but I do feel I have a good shot at advancing.

Player               Bye
Brady, Tom NEP QB (P) 	8
Favre, Brett FA* QB (P)- 	-
Leftwich, Byron TBB QB- 	8
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB - 	6
Hightower, Tim ARI RB - 	4
Jennings, Rashad JAC RB- 	7
Johnson, Larry KCC RB - 	8
Jones, Thomas NYJ RB - 	9
Taylor, Chester MIN RB - 	9
Breaston, Steve ARI WR - 	4
Coles, Laveranues CIN WR	8
Henry, Chris CIN WR 	- 	8
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 	7
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR- 	4
Robinson, Laurent STL WR 	9
Schilens, Chaz OAK WR - 	9
Cooley, Chris WAS TE - 	8
Finley, Jermichael GBP TE- 	5
Gostkowski, Stephen NEP 	8
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK - 	6
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def - 	6
Jets, New York NYJ Def - 	9

 

[Instinctive]

First off, I had to bug out with 19,20,21, and 22 remaining. I asked Clayton to make the following picks: 49ers, Pettigrew, and then all kickers without byes based on ADP. The 49ers got taken, but I ended up with Brady Quinn, Plaxico Burress, Garrett Hartley, and CAR Def. None of them are Pettigrew or kickers that will play. Really kind of pissed about the kickers. I have no kicker do to Hartley being suspended then on bye. I can understand nto gettign exactly the right guys...but no viable kickers at all? When I said draft just kickers?

QB

Jay Cutler

Matt Schaub

Brady Quinn

Schaub I wanted. Pretty good schedule, think he's a beast, and Cutler has DET in the matchup I thought Schaub would falter in. I don't know why I have Brady Quinn, he should be a kicker.

RB

Marion Barber

Felix Jones

Tashard Choice

Brandon Jacobs

Danny Ware

Willis McGahee

Mike Goodson

I got NYG and DAL because I liked their schedules. I missed out on Bradshaw by like 2 picks. I think Goodson could be a great help if Stewart's achilles problem gets serious and keeps him out of games.

WR

Bernard Berrian

Miles Austin

Marques Colston

David Clowney

Keenan Burton

Santana Moss

Devin Thomas

Plaxico Burress

Like the Berrian pick even more now that Favre has signed. Colston is my only bye, I like WAS schedule. I tried for lots of boom-bust here because it is best ball. Definitely my weak point.

Plaxico...really? I had no playing kicker at all, left instructions to draft only kickers, and got a guy who is in jail/suspended/not on a team?

TE

Zach Miller

Pettigrew should be here too, but he isn't. Either way, i think Miller would start all 5 weeks. This pick looks great now that Schilens is out too.

DEF

New York Giants

Carolina Panthers

I really liked the schedule of the Giants. Carolina is good, could surprise me, but should be a kicker. Again.

K

Garrett Hartley

Puzzles me like Plax. When i had to leave I said "all kickers without byes." There are multiple kickers without byes that went undrafted. I don't understand. A zero every week of the competition.

 

[dgreen]

Puzzles me like Plax. When i had to leave I said "all kickers without byes." There are multiple kickers without byes that went undrafted. I don't understand. A zero every week of the competition.

I believe Clayton just put you on autopilot so the computer drafted for you. Plax was the highest rated according to ADP at that point, so that's who it picked.

 

[Instinctive]

Puzzles me like Plax. When i had to leave I said "all kickers without byes." There are multiple kickers without byes that went undrafted. I don't understand. A zero every week of the competition.

I believe Clayton just put you on autopilot so the computer drafted for you. Plax was the highest rated according to ADP at that point, so that's who it picked.

Hmm. I guess the autopilot goes off of MFL's ADP and not the player queue you have like ESPN?

 

[BassNBrew]

Puzzles me like Plax. When i had to leave I said "all kickers without byes." There are multiple kickers without byes that went undrafted. I don't understand. A zero every week of the competition.

I believe Clayton just put you on autopilot so the computer drafted for you. Plax was the highest rated according to ADP at that point, so that's who it picked.

Hmm. I guess the autopilot goes off of MFL's ADP and not the player queue you have like ESPN?

Yup. You should have pre-drafted or picked a league with a better draft time for you. Tough uphill battle without a kicker.

 

[Shadowfax]

Pre-draft strategy

Avoid bye week players early so if good value presents itself, you aren’t crippled with multiple players on Week 4 and 5.

WRs will probably go early so try and grab 2 top 10-15 guys with late byes and fill in WR3 later with a mixture of PPR and home run guys.

Draft 3 QBs. Target QB1 from QB4-7 range. Since most of the these QBs land on the byes, back him up with 2 other “for sure” starters.

Get solid RB1 and fill in RB corps throughout draft as decent RBs have been falling this year.

Don’t overpay for a top TE.

Get 2 kickers with late byes and solid starting jobs.

Try to load up on other positions and then get 3 middle of the pack defenses.

Pick by Pick:

1.09 Clinton Portis – Was targeting a WR in Moss or AJ with my first pick but both went before me. Passed on Fitz because of the bye. Thought about SJax, who I actually have higher ranked, but I have SJax in multiples leagues already and wanted a change of pace. Besides, StL is starting to scare me early on with Bulger and Avery gimpy already. Portis has a good schedule and seems to start off strong every year.

2.04 Calvin Johnson – Surprised he was here and was a no-brainer decision. Couldn’t input his name fast enough. Happy with this start and one of objectives complete with a stud RB/WR to start.

3.09 Chad Ochocinco – Didn’t feel any value at QB or RB so looked at 85 or Royal. I really like 85 to bounce back this year and I thought it more likely for Royal to slide 6 picks and could pick him up next round. But busman snagged him. Apparently, I took 85 a little early and could have had him later. First little hiccup in the draft as I might have been able to draft Royal then 85…but I’m ok with it. Hopefully, 85 is more consistent than he has been the past year or two. One of those horrible 2-30 games could sting a little.

4.04 Dallas Clark – I was all set to select Kevin Smith here but changed my mind as I didn’t want both he and Calvin. Still had a decent WR tier left so went with Clark…and went against my own pre-draft strategy. I play a lot of 1.5/2.0 PPR TE leagues and wasn’t paying attention here and grabbed a TE earlier than I had wanted. Looking back and seeing how the other TEs fell, I reached on this pick but I now have a top TE with a late bye and the #2 option for Manning isn’t a bad thing at all.

5.09 Ryan Grant – I really like Grant this year, especially where you can draft him. He was hobbled early last year but looked much better after their bye. Down side is the week 5 bye and a week 4 game against Minny…but he’s had some success against them so we’ll see. We’ll also see if not picking Reggie Bush here was a big mistake. (Bush fell to 6.10 which was just robbery at that point).

6.04 Donavan McNabb – He was the last QB in my tier so it was an easy choice here. Phi has given him more weapons than ever and he has a pretty good schedule, save for the bye week 4. And it’s too early in the season to bench him .

7.09 Derrick Ward – Guys I was targeting all got sniped this round. Don’t really know what to make of Ward this year. Big contract for a RBBC? Really? Overall, not thrilled with the pick but should be ok as part of my RB2 committee.

8.04 Torry Holt – Needed to start shoring up my WR3BC. Ginn was on my short list but I felt it too early for him – and then he was picked later this round. I keep forgetting to draft players I like and stop waiting for them to fall later rounds. It doesn’t happen. Hopefully Holt’s knees can hold up for the first 5 weeks. Besides, there really is no other option in Jax so he should get a lot looks from Garrard in the beginning. I expect Garrard to lean on Holt until other options develop.

9.09 Jeremy Shockey – People seem to be forgetting how good this guy can be. He’s way undervalued this year. NO loves to throw, he’s healthy, and Moore and Bush aren’t. He had 50 catches last year, with an injury and lack of trust from Brees…both of which are supposedly history now. Thrilled to pair him with Clark.

10.04 Leon Washington – I felt the next tier of RBs about to go and was right as 10 of the next 16 picks were RBs. While Leon loses some appeal with .5 PPR, he’s a threat anywhere on the field and a great survivor play. A great RB4, IMO.

11.09 Justin Gage – Decent PPR guy. Big strong WR and seemed to grow with Collins as season went on. He should be the go to guy early until Washington and Britt earn their turns and perhaps earns it the whole year.

12.04 Nate Burleson – Seattle has a rushing game? Nah – expect Hasselbeck to air it often. Could be a solid PPR guy that can also score. Call it a hunch but Burleson is going to have a good year.

13.09 Joe Flacco – Waited too long on QB2s. Felt Flacco was best remaining QB with no bye week and total job security.

14.04 Jamarcus Russell – Yup. Back to back lower tier QBs. Exciting. Yes, Raiders are a rushing team but you know Al is just dying to let Russell throw it deep many times this year.

15.09 Tennessee DST – Defenses are flying off the board but Chicago was somehow staying alive…until the pick right before me. Hopefully, the loss of Haynesworth isn’t hugely noticeable.

16.04 Houston DST – Just another DST to roster. Houston addressed the defensive side of the ball in the offseason so hopefully this will move them up to a upper middle class defense.

17.09 Ladell Betts – People were handcuffing a lot and seemed a decent idea. Probably could have waited but I felt better just getting it over and done with. Betts has proven to be reliable for Portis.

18.04 Jacksonville DST – My 3rd DST. Not expecting a lot as they didn’t really seem to address the defense this offseason.

19.09 Jason Hanson – Not sure why I picked him. There were better options out there. Meh…it’s a kicker. Until I heard that he had minor knee surgery. Great.

20.04 Shayne Graham – Another kicker with job security and a late bye.

21.09 Johnnie Lee Higgins – A late round flyer. Kid looked good at the end of the year and was actually the Raiders leading WR with 38 catches. Pick looking better with the Schilens injury.

22.04 Darrius Heyward-Bey – after my JLH pick, decided to lock up the Raiders deep threats. Lol I actually expect Raiders to air it out this year and hopefully, JLH and DHB is the benefactor. It’s a double bonus if it happens with Russell on my roster too.

By Position

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 4

Flacco, Joe BAL QB - 7

Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB - 9

I should be ok here. I’ll lean on McNabb and Russell or Flacco may surprise a game or two. Hopefully, they can produce Week 4 with McNabb on bye – Flacco @ NE and Russell @ HOU isn’t promising though. But with only 1 team booted Week 4, I bet other teams have more issues.

Portis, Clinton WAS RB - 8

Grant, Ryan GBP RB - 5

Ward, Derrick TBB RB (P) - 8

Washington, Leon NYJ RB – 9

Betts, Ladell WAS RB - 8

Solid starters in Portis and Grant but nothing flashy. I don’t like Grant’s bye week and only really have 3 other RBs to post 2 scores. Some concern here. Average RB corps.

Johnson, Calvin DET WR (P) - 7

Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR – 8

Holt, Torry JAC WR - 7

Gage, Justin TEN WR - 7

Burleson, Nate SEA WR (P) - 7

Higgins, Johnnie Lee OAK WR (P) - 9

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR - 9

If Calvin can produce with the crap at QB last year, I don’t have any concerns this year. I need Ochocinco to step up. (hi JB). Got a couple PPR and deep threats for a decent mixture.

Clark, Dallas IND TE (P) - 6

Shockey, Jeremy NOS TE – 5

Strong duo. Wish this was 2 PPR like the MB survivor leagues. 2nd best in the league behind Nittany Lion’s – Gates, Gonzalez and Cook.

Graham, Shayne CIN PK - 8

Hanson, Jason DET PK (P) - 7

Yuck. No bye issues but how injured is Hanson? 3 worst in the league.

Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def - 7

Texans, Houston HOU Def - 10

Titans, Tennessee TEN Def - 7

We’ll see how this plays out. I’m a fan of adding the 3rd defense with larger rosters but wasn’t really thinking to pick all from AFC South. Could have and should have thought this through more clearly to get a better complement of defenses.

I was able to navigate the bye weeks fairly well. With only 1 team booted Week 4, I may have passed on some players I shouldn't have. I tried for a balance team with no glaring weaknesses and think I succeeded. On the flip side, I probably don’t have one position that stands out and will carry my squad. I don't think I have many players that will blow up one week but as long as I'm not the worst team or two each week, I'm ok with average. It was fun and l look forward to following this contest throughout the season.

 

[valence]

The Results...

Week 1 cuts: valence, Instinctive

I'd be willing to bet I don't leave week 1. I'll try to do my team analysis later tonight

 

[valence]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Rosenfels, Sage MIN QB

After Brady and Manning. Romo was my top QB without a week 5 or 6 bye. I was going to draft Favre in the last round, but he was taken a round earlier (this was before he unretired again). not having a 2nd starting QB sucks, but lead QB is a pretty good one that doesn't have a bye in the first 5 weeks.

Bush, Michael OAK RB

Fargas, Justin OAK RB

McFadden, Darren OAK RB

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

Smith, Kevin DET RB

Taylor, Fred NEP RB

Opening WR\WR and still getting McFadden and Smith was a nice surprise. These are two guys I am very high on this year and was thrilled to get them where I did. Fred Taylor could have a Corey Dillon like year in New England this year. I'd expected no less than 750 yards which i'll take as my RB3. Bush and Fargas ensures the monopoly on the Raiders rushing attack. Mendenhall was a 16th round flier. I'm not fond of his game, but he seemed like a steel in the 16th round.

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Camarillo, Greg MIA WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Floyd, Malcom SDC WR

Galloway, Joey NEP WR

Henderson, Devery NOS WR

Jackson, Vincent SDC WR

Johnson, Andre HOU WR

The obvious strength of my team. I knew I was taking AJ or Moss the whole time and planned to go RB in round 2, but I never expected Fitzgerald to still be available. Even though he has a week 4 bye, it's only a single elimination week. My strategy from here focused on padding my scoring potential to fill in for Fitzgerald missing week 4. Vincent Jackson as a WR3 is fantastic and covers Fitz in week 4 while Fitz covers VJax in week 5. Avery was worth the risk as my WR4. Camarillo could be deadly in full PPR leagues. Galloway gives me a piece of the NE passing attack as well. If Moss were to go down, he would be the direct beneficiary. Malcom Floyd is VJax insurance, and could post a score regardless. Henderson is a guy I love in bestball type leagues. You don't have to predict which game he is going to catch an 80 yard TD.



Carlson, John SEA TE

Winslow, Kellen TBB TE

Two great PPR TEs which are a focal point for their respective offenses.

Akers, David PHI PK

Reed, Jeff PIT PK

two solid kickers, Akers has a week 4 bye, but it doesn't worry me.

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def

Raiders, Oakland OAK Def

Two underrated defenses with late byes.

I'm fairly confident this team gets me to the next round if Romo doesn't have a bigtime dud in his first 5 games.

 

[BusMan]

The Results...

Week 1 cuts: valence, Instinctive

I'd be willing to bet I don't leave week 1. I'll try to do my team analysis later tonight

I'll say this: if you do survive Week 1, I expect you'll make it through.

 

[Instinctive]

I think I could go past week 1 even with my total lack of kicker scoring.

My RBs have really easy games. Any one of them, or even more than one, could absolutely go nuts. Just gotta hope it's one per team and they dont vulture each other.

 

[BusMan]

Ran the numbers again and here's what I got:

Week 1: Instinctive, george

Week 2: Tefertiller

Week 3: Limp Ditka, BusMan

Week 4: IvanZaramazov

Week 5: nittany lion, ShadowFax

Advancers: Haseley, bostonfred, valence, dgreen

So...um....that's completely different. Maybe when I run them next week the final four will be advancers in my book.

I guess the morale here is that its anybody's game.

 

[valence]

Ran the numbers again and here's what I got:Week 1: Instinctive, georgeWeek 2: TefertillerWeek 3: Limp Ditka, BusManWeek 4: IvanZaramazovWeek 5: nittany lion, ShadowFaxAdvancers: Haseley, bostonfred, valence, dgreenSo...um....that's completely different. Maybe when I run them next week the final four will be advancers in my book.I guess the morale here is that its anybody's game.

Looks like I'm good this week Bus

 

[Shadowfax]

Ran the numbers again and here's what I got:Week 1: Instinctive, georgeWeek 2: TefertillerWeek 3: Limp Ditka, BusManWeek 4: IvanZaramazovWeek 5: nittany lion, ShadowFaxAdvancers: Haseley, bostonfred, valence, dgreenSo...um....that's completely different. Maybe when I run them next week the final four will be advancers in my book.I guess the morale here is that its anybody's game.

Looks like I'm good this week Bus

sounds like you're taking some random projections a bit too seriously. All in good fun and I think it's interesting when busman does this.

 

[Shadowfax]

Haseley (152.5 pts)

Tefertiller (135.0 pts)

bostonfred (131.6 pts)

valence (163.9 pts)

IvanKaramazov (149.7 pts)

dgreen (110.0 pts)

BusMan (130.7 pts)

nittanylion (159.6 pts)

george (121.6 pts)

Limp Ditka (160.5 pts)

Shadowfax (157.2 pts)

Instinctive (110.0 pts)

Looks like we say goodbye to dgreen and Instinctive.

 

[Shadowfax]

With McNabb probably out, I'm not real comfortable with Flacco and Russell as my QBs. And my picks of DHB and JLH of Oakland look to be garbage so I don't have much WR depth. Hopefully, I can hang on but consider me very worried.

 

[valence]

Ran the numbers again and here's what I got:Week 1: Instinctive, georgeWeek 2: TefertillerWeek 3: Limp Ditka, BusManWeek 4: IvanZaramazovWeek 5: nittany lion, ShadowFaxAdvancers: Haseley, bostonfred, valence, dgreenSo...um....that's completely different. Maybe when I run them next week the final four will be advancers in my book.I guess the morale here is that its anybody's game.

Looks like I'm good this week Bus

sounds like you're taking some random projections a bit too seriously. All in good fun and I think it's interesting when busman does this.

not at all. i love it when people take the time to review teams and make predictions

 

[Instinctive]

Damn. Better luck next time I suppose.

 

[dgreen]

Haseley (152.5 pts)Tefertiller (135.0 pts)bostonfred (131.6 pts)valence (163.9 pts)IvanKaramazov (149.7 pts)dgreen (110.0 pts)BusMan (130.7 pts)nittanylion (159.6 pts)george (121.6 pts)Limp Ditka (160.5 pts)Shadowfax (157.2 pts)Instinctive (110.0 pts)Looks like we say goodbye to dgreen and Instinctive.

I was robbed!

 

[BusMan]

I've got way too many guys not seeing any action (Hillis, Graham, Robiskie, Demetrius Williams, Mike Walker). I don't see round 2 in the cards this year.

 

[george]

Haseley (152.5 pts)Tefertiller (135.0 pts)bostonfred (131.6 pts)valence (163.9 pts)IvanKaramazov (149.7 pts)dgreen (110.0 pts)BusMan (130.7 pts)nittanylion (159.6 pts)george (121.6 pts)Limp Ditka (160.5 pts)Shadowfax (157.2 pts)Instinctive (110.0 pts)Looks like we say goodbye to dgreen and Instinctive.

Dodged the bullet this week with 10th lowest score. Hope I improve next week. Cause I better!

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Overall, I think this is a solid team that has a good chance to advance.

 

[nittanylion]

You might be OK, Ivan...it looks to me like there might be something glitchy with the Live Scoring at our MFL Site.

Click on your Team Score, and check the details - the software is supposed to maximize our Starting Lineup from the highest scorers at each Position, or so I think...

Using you as an example, Garrard had 28.8, while EManning had 28.7, yet Eli appears as your Starter. Westbrook had 8.1, while Reggie Bush had 15.0, yet Westbrook appears in your Starting Lineup.

Unless I'm totally wrong, this is something we'll need to keep an eye on...

 

[da_budman]

You might be OK, Ivan...it looks to me like there might be something glitchy with the Live Scoring at our MFL Site.Click on your Team Score, and check the details - the software is supposed to maximize our Starting Lineup from the highest scorers at each Position, or so I think...Using you as an example, Garrard had 28.8, while EManning had 28.7, yet Eli appears as your Starter. Westbrook had 8.1, while Reggie Bush had 15.0, yet Westbrook appears in your Starting Lineup.Unless I'm totally wrong, this is something we'll need to keep an eye on...

the downloadable live scoring program is correct. The one on the website is all screwed up

 

[nittanylion]

Looks like everything has been straightened out now...

http://www21.myfantasyleague.com/2009/home/51747

 

[Shadowfax]

Is there anywhere on the site that shows the teams that didn't advance? So far dgreen, instinctive and ivan are out. It would be nice to see that on the site instead of trying to remember or tracking it here.

 

[george]

Is there anywhere on the site that shows the teams that didn't advance? So far dgreen, instinctive and ivan are out. It would be nice to see that on the site instead of trying to remember or tracking it here.

 

[da_budman]

Is there anywhere on the site that shows the teams that didn't advance? So far dgreen, instinctive and ivan are out. It would be nice to see that on the site instead of trying to remember or tracking it here.

maybe post it on the message board there ?

 

[george]

Things are not looking good for my team this week...

 

[valence]

whew. just barely made it through there despite no TDs from Romo. GG george and Ditka

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

so, who are the five that are gone?

DGreen

Instinctive

Ivan K

George

Limp Ditka

 

[Limp Ditka]

WR was probably going to kill me anyway, but to think that I'm out because of a pedestrian day by Brees vs Buffalo is pretty surprising.

 

[bostonfred]

 

[BusMan]

so, who are the five that are gone?

DGreen

Instinctive

Ivan K

George

Limp Ditka

linkStatus After Week 3

bostonfred - 184.3

BusMan - 179.7

Tefertiller - 132.4

Haseley - 131.6

nittanylion - 121.6

Shadowfax - 118.1

valence - 109.6

george - 107.1 (booted in Week 3)

Limp Ditka - 92.9 (booted in Week 3)

IvanKaramazov (booted in Week 2)

Instinctive (booted in Week 1)

dgreen (booted in Week 1)

Status After Week 2

nittanylion - 179.0

george - 172.7

valence - 157.1

bostonfred - 156.7

Tefertiller - 148.5

Shadowfax - 140.3

Haseley - 139.6

BusMan - 125.9

Limp Ditka - 120.7

IvanKaramazov - 117.7 (booted in Week 2)

Instinctive (booted in Week 1)

dgreen (booted in Week 1)

Status After Week 1

valence - 167.4

Limp Ditka - 165.3

nittanylion - 164.3

Shadowfax - 162.4

Haseley - 154.4

IvanKaramazov - 154.2

Tefertiller - 140.4

bostonfred - 136.6

BusMan - 134.6

george - 126.4

Instinctive - 114.3 (booted in Week 1)

dgreen - 113.0 (booted in Week 1)

 

[BusMan]

Looks like it'll be one of bostonfred, nittanylion, or valence getting the Week 4 boot.

 

[Shadowfax]

Looks like it'll be one of bostonfred, nittanylion, or valence getting the Week 4 boot.

bostonfred-105.2 (Rodgers -0)nittanylion-107.9 (Peterson -2.1, Driver/Jennings -3.6/-4.7)valence-122.9 (done)nittanylion should get enough tonight to be safe. So it all comes down to Rodgers and 17.7 points. It's not looking good for valence. What happens in the unlikely event of a tie?

 

[valence]

Looks like it'll be one of bostonfred, nittanylion, or valence getting the Week 4 boot.

bostonfred-105.2 (Rodgers -0)nittanylion-107.9 (Peterson -2.1, Driver/Jennings -3.6/-4.7)valence-122.9 (done)nittanylion should get enough tonight to be safe. So it all comes down to Rodgers and 17.7 points. It's not looking good for valence. What happens in the unlikely event of a tie?

dang. 122.9 not good enough. gg all.

 

[bostonfred]

That was close. I just need to survive one more week without my first round pick (Gore) and now my highest scorer (Rodgers) and third highest scorer (Saints DST) on bye. I knew that going in, and have Kurt Warner and the Steelers and Redskins Ds to back them up, but still, it would suck to be the highest scorer through the first four weeks and then get knocked out the last week.

Still, nittanylion loses Rivers, Sproles, Gates, Jennings, Driver, Earl Bennett, and Kaeding - wow. That's a third of his roster.

Shadowfax loses Shockey and Ryan Grant. Jeff H loses Pierre Thomas, Meachem and Lance Moore, and may be without Stafford's services depending on the injury.

Jeff T only loses Jermichael Finley, and Busman doesn't lose anyone, having apparently crossed everyone from Green Bay, New Orleans, Chicago and San Diego off his draft board.

Interesting how close everyone is bundled around the league average scoring. This was obviously a pretty tight draft. Also interesting that the top six scorers remain, after #7 got booted last week.

 

[Shadowfax]

I've been scraping by the past 2 weeks but I'm not optimistic about Week 5.

Flacco has been a godsend (to offset the ultimate suck in Russell) and hopefully it will help to get McNabb back this week. My RBs just haven't really produced.

WRs have been ok but Oakland is a wasteland so I'm really only going with 5 WRs as DHB and JLH might as well have been off my roster. Gage now looks to be an afterthought...so make that 4 WRs. TEs have been productive and K/DST have been ok. So far it's been just good enough to advance.....but......

Portis hasn't been worth my 1st pick and doesn't look like a threat to score much. Grant has been worse than I thought and now he's on bye. Ward is hurt and Leon hasn't had a good game nor a TD yet. My top 2 WRs have bad matchups -- Calvin is against Pitt (I hope Troy is out one more week) and Ochocinco is against Bal. Not looking good. Even though Shockey is out this week, Clark should still put up good points against Ten. But I fear my RBs and WRs will give me the big ol' boot next week. <_<

 

[nittanylion]

Whew. I know Week 5 is going to be a gamble, but I never thought I'd feel the heat in Week 4.

Well, this was the gamble I took during the Draft, coming out of Position 1. At the far turns, I had to decide if I wanted to take Upper Tier falling Players, or manage Bye Weeks, and I just couldn't resist the value of all the Week 4/5 Guys that were coming my way...

Post-Draft, going into the Season, Week 4 didn't concern me, since there was only 1 elimination paring the League from 7 to 6. I didn't think I'd be standing when the music stopped, and this was closer than it should have been with Peterson, Jennings and Driver going last night. That was one weird Game...but I made it.

Week 5 is going to be a challenge, no question. Plenty of guys off, but I think the matchups of the Players I do have going give me a puncher's chance

Edwards vs Browns - I can live with this.

Peterson at Rams/MeMoore at Lions - couldn't write a better opportunity for Peterson to have a blow-up performance following getting stifled against the Packers on MNF. Mendenhall is going to have to show some consistency before I'm concerned about him. MeMo is still a critical piece of that Offense. I purposely made RB2 my weakness, but I expected more from Norwood - maybe coming out of the Bye, I'll get that. Falcons might need a new wrinkle at a tough Niner D.

Boldin vs Texans/Ginn&Bess vs NYJets/Curtis&Maclin vs Buccaneers...this looked better during the Draft, not so much now due to the Pennington Injury and the dominance of the Jets D. At least Boldin, Curtis and Maclin are coming off byes and facing softer D's (Texans, Buccaneers), which might help some.

Gonzo has a tough matchup at the 49'ers, and if they minimize him, that might be all it takes to derail me.

Thought Elam might have more juice in him. Praying for a good game.

Pats D/ST - I was convinced they'd be a dominant unit, and I loved that early season schedule. They haven't killed me yet, but if they don't come up big vs Broncos - something I was counting on, when my Roster started getting heavy with Week 5 Byes and I decided to go with only 1 D/ST, well...

Peterson always gives a reason for hope, and the Week 5 matchup vs the Rams was one reason I felt it was a manageable gamble to have all those other guys on Bye. Edwards, Boldin and Gonz give me some foundational guys that should post decent stats in support. MeMoore/Norwood, Ginn/Bess, Curtis/Maclin, Elam and the Pats...here's where it gets dicey, and quite dicey at that. Not much gold to be mined from that group without a minor miracle.

It's not out of the question that I can finish ahead of 2 of the remaining Teams, but once again, I'm going to find myself paying VERY close attention to the MNF Game (Jets at Dolphins), hoping like heck that Henne generates some balls to whoever Revis isn't covering...well, at least the Game is in Miami...

 

[BusMan]

LD's take on the final six in Week 5:

BusMan - 135.1

Haseley - 127.3

ShadowFax - 126.1

bostonfred - 124.9

Tefertiller - 117.9

nittany lion - 110.2

 

[bostonfred]

BusMan (158.7 pts)

Haseley (151.5 pts)

Shadowfax (150.9 pts)

You've all but made the cut. All you need is to avoid not one, but two improbable comebacks, and all of you still have players left to play.

--

bostonfred (137.5 pts) --> On the line with no players left to play. Need to hold off a 30 point surge by Jeff T. or a 21.8 point surge by NL. Like in poker, I'd usually rather be ahead than drawing, but this is not a comfortable lead.

--

nittanylion (115.8 pts) --> have Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, Jr minus zero and 15.4, respectively. Not looking good.

Tefertiller (107.4 pts) --> have both the Jets and Dolphins Ds, as well as Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones minus 13.2 and 14.4, respectively. Probably the best chance of knocking me off.