bengalbuck
Footballguy
There are only a handful of guys at each position that are so talented that they are almost guaranteed to put up big numbers each year and they’re usually pretty easy to spot (Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, etc.). The real key in my opinion is finding guys in the next tier that have enough talent that they can put up big fantasy numbers, but only if they end up in a good situation. Here are some WRs who I think have the talent and could potentially end up in better situations next season that are worth trading for in dynasty leagues with late trade deadlines:
1. Austin Collie is a guy who has fallen off the map without Peyton. Next year, he is almost guaranteed to have either Manning or (more likely) Andrew Luck. If Luck’s the guy, you’d have to think the Colts think about going young a bit and FA Reggie Wayne isn’t likely to be in their plans (and he may want a contender not a rebuild even if the Colts do want him back). Pierre Garcon is also a FA, though more likely to come back. Basically, Collie has a very good chance to be Luck’s #1 or #2 WR (and a reception magnet) for a long time and if Luck is as good as many think, he could end up a fantasy WR1 or 2.
2. Santonio Holmes has a lot of talent. Greg Cosell has said he’s top 5 in the league at WR in talent due to the separation he is able to gain. Obviously with Sanchez and the run first game plan, he has pretty limited value right now. But both the OC and Sanchez could be playing for their futures. If a guy like Peyton Manning becomes available this offseason, I’d bet the Jets would be all over him and they’d be an attractive destination for him if he is choosing. Plus who knows what the future holds for FA Plaxico Burress? Again, another guy who if the cards fall right, could be a WR1.
3. Marques Colston is another guy who has proven that he can be a top 10 talent, but his value has really fallen due to injuries and everyone wanting the “next big thing” which leads to a somewhat boring guy like Colston falling in drafts and in perceived value. Obviously his knee injuries are worrisome, but his situation and talent make him a good gamble at his current prices. Robert Meachem is a FA and I doubt the Saints go out of their way to re-sign him which opens up even more opportunity for Colston going forward. Regardless of Meachem, if Colston is even close to fully healthy next year, he’s a fantasy WR1 in his prime years age-wise on one of the most consistent passing offenses in the league. I think a lot of owners see him as being at the end of his career and some "rebuilding" owners are shopping him for young guys that aren't nearly as talented as he is.
4. Desean Jackson looks to me like he could use a change of scenery. When you look at the contracts that guys like Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes got a couple months ago, it becomes pretty clear that a WR-needy franchise is going to give him a very big contract (likely to be their #1 WR) this March. DJax has shown he has WR1 or high WR2 talent from the second he stepped on the field. The question to me is whether Andy Reid has helped or hurt his fantasy value. Looking at Philly’s history of really spreading the ball around and never having a consistent go-to guy at WR, I suspect he has the potential to catch a lot more balls and be much more consistent from a fantasy perspective on another team. He’s dirt cheap right now and it never hurts to add a young guy with a boatload of talent to your dynasty roster. What if he ends up with the Shanahans in Washington as the #1 WR with a guy like Barkley or Robert Griffin at QB? In my opinion, there are realistic scenarios that make him much more valuable that aren't being factored into the equation when looking at his overall trade value.
5. Brandon Lloyd is another guy who can be acquired pretty cheap who has the potential to be a fantasy WR1 if he lands in a good spot as a FA. His best bet may actually be to re-sign with the Rams. If the Rams can fix their OL this offseason (Matt Kalil at LT would be a great start) and just get some guys (Bradford, Saffold, Amendola, etc.) healthy, they are a team that could go from fantasy wasteland to very productive very quickly. And we’ve already seen that Lloyd has the talent in this offensive system (and with a worse QB) to put up gigantic fantasy numbers. Like Colston, he's not young and there is also a bit of a perception that he's a 1 year wonder. But he can be had for a song from rebuilding owners who see his age and lack of production this year and will take whatever they can get for him. He could still be a great player for 3+ seasons if he ends up on the right team with an OC/QB who believe in him.
Disclaimer: Just because I think these guys all have the potential to be top 15 WRs (or higher) in the medium term doesn't mean I'd pay that price for them. I just think they are attractive in large part because they have that potential (and decent floors as well) and can be had in most leagues at a relatively low price.
Any other guys who fit this mold? Any major disagreements with these 5?
1. Austin Collie is a guy who has fallen off the map without Peyton. Next year, he is almost guaranteed to have either Manning or (more likely) Andrew Luck. If Luck’s the guy, you’d have to think the Colts think about going young a bit and FA Reggie Wayne isn’t likely to be in their plans (and he may want a contender not a rebuild even if the Colts do want him back). Pierre Garcon is also a FA, though more likely to come back. Basically, Collie has a very good chance to be Luck’s #1 or #2 WR (and a reception magnet) for a long time and if Luck is as good as many think, he could end up a fantasy WR1 or 2.
2. Santonio Holmes has a lot of talent. Greg Cosell has said he’s top 5 in the league at WR in talent due to the separation he is able to gain. Obviously with Sanchez and the run first game plan, he has pretty limited value right now. But both the OC and Sanchez could be playing for their futures. If a guy like Peyton Manning becomes available this offseason, I’d bet the Jets would be all over him and they’d be an attractive destination for him if he is choosing. Plus who knows what the future holds for FA Plaxico Burress? Again, another guy who if the cards fall right, could be a WR1.
3. Marques Colston is another guy who has proven that he can be a top 10 talent, but his value has really fallen due to injuries and everyone wanting the “next big thing” which leads to a somewhat boring guy like Colston falling in drafts and in perceived value. Obviously his knee injuries are worrisome, but his situation and talent make him a good gamble at his current prices. Robert Meachem is a FA and I doubt the Saints go out of their way to re-sign him which opens up even more opportunity for Colston going forward. Regardless of Meachem, if Colston is even close to fully healthy next year, he’s a fantasy WR1 in his prime years age-wise on one of the most consistent passing offenses in the league. I think a lot of owners see him as being at the end of his career and some "rebuilding" owners are shopping him for young guys that aren't nearly as talented as he is.
4. Desean Jackson looks to me like he could use a change of scenery. When you look at the contracts that guys like Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes got a couple months ago, it becomes pretty clear that a WR-needy franchise is going to give him a very big contract (likely to be their #1 WR) this March. DJax has shown he has WR1 or high WR2 talent from the second he stepped on the field. The question to me is whether Andy Reid has helped or hurt his fantasy value. Looking at Philly’s history of really spreading the ball around and never having a consistent go-to guy at WR, I suspect he has the potential to catch a lot more balls and be much more consistent from a fantasy perspective on another team. He’s dirt cheap right now and it never hurts to add a young guy with a boatload of talent to your dynasty roster. What if he ends up with the Shanahans in Washington as the #1 WR with a guy like Barkley or Robert Griffin at QB? In my opinion, there are realistic scenarios that make him much more valuable that aren't being factored into the equation when looking at his overall trade value.
5. Brandon Lloyd is another guy who can be acquired pretty cheap who has the potential to be a fantasy WR1 if he lands in a good spot as a FA. His best bet may actually be to re-sign with the Rams. If the Rams can fix their OL this offseason (Matt Kalil at LT would be a great start) and just get some guys (Bradford, Saffold, Amendola, etc.) healthy, they are a team that could go from fantasy wasteland to very productive very quickly. And we’ve already seen that Lloyd has the talent in this offensive system (and with a worse QB) to put up gigantic fantasy numbers. Like Colston, he's not young and there is also a bit of a perception that he's a 1 year wonder. But he can be had for a song from rebuilding owners who see his age and lack of production this year and will take whatever they can get for him. He could still be a great player for 3+ seasons if he ends up on the right team with an OC/QB who believe in him.
Disclaimer: Just because I think these guys all have the potential to be top 15 WRs (or higher) in the medium term doesn't mean I'd pay that price for them. I just think they are attractive in large part because they have that potential (and decent floors as well) and can be had in most leagues at a relatively low price.
Any other guys who fit this mold? Any major disagreements with these 5?