Unpredictabilty of the NFL (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

 

[glock]

 

[FDC]

At first glance I had the same thoughts you did. On second thought, I'm not sure I'm all that surprised.

 

[Billy Bats]

One thing has remained consistent, Andy Reid is still a joke of a head coach.

 

[Rovers]

At first glance I had the same thoughts you did. On second thought, I'm not sure I'm all that surprised.

One word: Greene.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I doubt it's any more unpredictable now than it has been at week 6 in any other season.

 

[Shutout]

More of the same and same as it ever was. This is the NFL, post the great dynasty years.

 

[munygon2]

All of the players are the best of the best, even on the so-called worst teams in the league.

 

[FDC]

At first glance I had the same thoughts you did. On second thought, I'm not sure I'm all that surprised.

One word: Greene.

I did not see a day that big coming, I'm just not that surprised in retrospect. I understand the FF community is down on Greene. But we've seen solid production from average talents before. We've seen Nick Goings blow up for 120 and 3TDs

Indy was the #3 worst defense against the run last year, and has allowed 177 1 TD to MJD, and 122 3 TDs to Chi RBs.

 

[Black]

At first glance I had the same thoughts you did. On second thought, I'm not sure I'm all that surprised.

One word: Greene.

I did not see a day that big coming, I'm just not that surprised in retrospect. I understand the FF community is down on Greene. But we've seen solid production from average talents before. We've seen Nick Goings blow up for 120 and 3TDs

Indy was the #3 worst defense against the run last year, and has allowed 177 1 TD to MJD, and 122 3 TDs to Chi RBs.

Last year every RB playing STL put up 250 yards and looked like the second coming of ...whoever. This year, it's IND.

To me the interesting part is the focus on and improvement of many defenses. With really improving DEF, and some that are turnstiles, it upsets the predictive power of fantasy numbers.

Now, still no idea about how TB and NYG crushed this weekend...but upsets and blowouts (or both) ALSO really contribute to unpredictability of fantasy numbers.

 

[FDC]

Now, still no idea about how TB and NYG crushed this weekend...but upsets and blowouts (or both) ALSO really contribute to unpredictability of fantasy numbers.

KC's D is a sieve (although that Balt game is a head scratcher)SF - played an elite D line that brought back some of those David Carresque scared of his own shadow like pocket presence in Alex Smith.

 

[FDC]

Looking at San Fran's schedule, Smith's pocket presence issues very well might keep up. (vs Sea, @ ARi, vs STl, vs CHI).

Kaepernick the preemptive pickup?

 

[otb_lifer]

Indy; not too shocking ... they played with a hell of a lot of emotion and fire last week, at home.

Absolutely due for a letdown; hitting the road after leaving damn near everything on the field in Indy last week.

A drained and spent team.

 

[MacAvery]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.

A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

No offense, but this is really dumb. It's not a predictive "theory," it's backwards-looking nonsense.

 

[Judge Smails]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

No offense, but this is really dumb. It's not a predictive "theory," it's backwards-looking nonsense.

No it's not. Good teams that are desperate (Packers) are dangerous. I thought they'd beat the Texans last night. And you better believe that the Giants came in extremely focused looking at the last 2 weeks of game film on the 49rs. That being said, there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging.

 

[rickyg]

It goes more like this:

Indy beats gb. Houston trounces the jets.

Gb trounces Houston. The jets trounce Indy .

Sf beat gb then gets trounced by the giants.

Giants lost to Dallas who got trounced by the bears.

Packers trounced the bears.

So what does that tell us? I don't know my brain hurts.

 

[MacAvery]

It goes more like this: Indy beats gb. Houston trounces the jets. Gb trounces Houston. The jets trounce Indy . Sf beat gb then gets trounced by the giants. Giants lost to Dallas who got trounced by the bears. Packers trounced the bears. So what does that tell us? I don't know my brain hurts.

Lots of variables: scheduling, injuries, game planning, teams with problems getting those problems sorted out, etc.In the NFL, there are beasts on both teams. Sometimes "want to" just trumps everything else.

 

[just_want_2_win]

It goes more like this: Indy beats gb. Houston trounces the jets. Gb trounces Houston. The jets trounce Indy . Sf beat gb then gets trounced by the giants. Giants lost to Dallas who got trounced by the bears. Packers trounced the bears. So what does that tell us? I don't know my brain hurts.

Lots of variables: scheduling, injuries, game planning, teams with problems getting those problems sorted out, etc.In the NFL, there are beasts on both teams. Sometimes "want to" just trumps everything else.

Some teams just match up better or worse against others. In the case of the 49ers, I think part of both losses this year was some overconfidence after some big wins and lots of media praise. SF had trounced the Jets and Bills and figuring they had so nearly beaten the Giants last year in the playoffs (and having beat them last year in the regular season), probably figured they were going to beat NYG too.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

No offense, but this is really dumb. It's not a predictive "theory," it's backwards-looking nonsense.

No it's not. Good teams that are desperate (Packers) are dangerous. I thought they'd beat the Texans last night. And you better believe that the Giants came in extremely focused looking at the last 2 weeks of game film on the 49rs. That being said, there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging.

There is so much wrong with "bounce theory" it's hardly worth the time picking it apart. It's not a predictive theory, it's just an explanatory narrative. You said it yourself - "there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging." If "bounce theory" was a real thing with predictive power, it would be pretty easy to consistently profit by identifying the teams that will "bounce" up or down on any given week. But it isn't, at least not based on loosely-defined notions like, "A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down."

It's just ex post facto reasoning. Green Bay was a "good" team that had been underperforming, and they win - therefore they "bounced" up. In week 4, Detroit was a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat Minnesota? In week 3, the Saints were a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat the Chiefs?

 

[FF Ninja]

I doubt it's any more unpredictable now than it has been at week 6 in any other season.

Or week 1. Or week 10. Or week 21.We all love the super bowl, but one game playoffs are inherently a crapshoot. Due to the nature of this game, there is no other way, but if there was a way to measure the best team in the NFL, I'd put money that the best team in the NFL only wins the super bowl one out of five times at best.

 

[MacAvery]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

No offense, but this is really dumb. It's not a predictive "theory," it's backwards-looking nonsense.

No it's not. Good teams that are desperate (Packers) are dangerous. I thought they'd beat the Texans last night. And you better believe that the Giants came in extremely focused looking at the last 2 weeks of game film on the 49rs. That being said, there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging.

There is so much wrong with "bounce theory" it's hardly worth the time picking it apart. It's not a predictive theory, it's just an explanatory narrative. You said it yourself - "there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging." If "bounce theory" was a real thing with predictive power, it would be pretty easy to consistently profit by identifying the teams that will "bounce" up or down on any given week. But it isn't, at least not based on loosely-defined notions like, "A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down."

It's just ex post facto reasoning. Green Bay was a "good" team that had been underperforming, and they win - therefore they "bounced" up. In week 4, Detroit was a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat Minnesota? In week 3, the Saints were a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat the Chiefs?

There are no hard and fast rules. If there was than beating Vegas would be too easy. It's not as simple as bouncing up or down from one week to the next. It's a feel you get for a team's motivation based on their circumstances. For example if Brady had lost 2 straight, would you be betting he wins this week? Those sort of opportunities don't present themselves every week. But when they do, you can usually rely on them.BTW...Detroit bounced up yesterday against Philly.

 

[lod01]

It goes more like this: Indy beats gb. Houston trounces the jets. Gb trounces Houston. The jets trounce Indy . Sf beat gb then gets trounced by the giants. Giants lost to Dallas who got trounced by the bears. Packers trounced the bears. So what does that tell us? I don't know my brain hurts.

On any given week any team can be beat by any team. As it has always been.

 

[sdp1226]

I agree, very unpredictable thus far.

4 way tie in the AFC east?! I would have never seen that coming.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

There are no hard and fast rules. If there was than beating Vegas would be too easy. It's not as simple as bouncing up or down from one week to the next. It's a feel you get for a team's motivation based on their circumstances. For example if Brady had lost 2 straight, would you be betting he wins this week? Those sort of opportunities don't present themselves every week. But when they do, you can usually rely on them.BTW...Detroit bounced up yesterday against Philly.

Figured it was just more gambler nonsense (e.g. confirmation bias, hindsight bias, etc.) It all sounds good and it's all dumb and wrong.

 

[Lascelle]

I agree, very unpredictable thus far.4 way tie in the AFC east?! I would have never seen that coming.

Technically, the Jets are in outright 1st place due to owning the best division record.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Houston trounces the jets.

link?

 

[SYMPHONY X]

The most odd thing to me is the success of the rookie QB's this year. ALL of them are performing beyond expectations for the most part. RGIII and Luck, you could see it coming, but to this level this early? The we have Tannehill, Weeden, and perhaps the most suprising, Wilson all getting W's for their respective clubs this week. In the famous soundbite of Vince Lombadi "What the hell is going on out here!"

In fantasy football, you used to be able to "rely" on those rookie QB's (not that there has ever been 5 of them starting a season before) as a great matchup for the defense that you picked up off of the waiver wire that week to face them. What happened to those days? Is it that the NFL is so ridiculously geared toward the passing game? I've heard the talk about QB's being more ready for the game at the pro-level, but THIS ready? You can come in and beat Tom freakin Brady and Bill Bellichek, when you are down by 13 in the 4th QTR? Really?

 

[Rovers]

I agree, very unpredictable thus far.4 way tie in the AFC east?! I would have never seen that coming.

Just another thing that IMO does make this year less predictable than other years. The Greene anomoly... and it WAS an anomoly is my biggest head scratcher and it cannot be explained simply by what we all know is a porous run defense. I watch every Jets game. Usually twice if I can stand it. Greene has NOT shown the burst, power or wiggle he displayed yesterday at all this year, and it's not even close. It's like he transformed into a different player. His previous performances were dismal. No power, no burst, no speed, zero elusiveness. Hesitant to hit the hole. Going down on first contact. He was a different RB yesterday. I think with Greene it's all in his head. He came into the game beleiving he could have a good game, and ran like an RB with purpose, with confidence. You can't play in this league scared. I think CJ-no-K is having the same sort of problem. It's in his head. "Oh, my O line sucks, no holes, I can't win here... yadayada."

 

[Donnybrook]

As soon as I start laying big money on the home team underdogs, the NFL universe will conspire against me and everthing will return to normal.

 

[Statcruncher]

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.

A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

 

[duaneok66]

So, last week the Colts beat GB. GB does to Houston and destroys the undefeated "best in the AFC" Texans the very next week. Just powns them. Then Indy plays the hapless Jets and gets massacred by none other than S Greene, who actually looked like an NFL RB again, something I knew I would never see again. The Giants wipe the 49'ers all over their home field. It's SEATTLE, not the Pats who come back to win in a tight game.

I mean I get the any given Sunday thing, but come on man!

Bounce theory. Bettors know it. We should heed it too.A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down.

Green Bay is a damn good team. For whatever reason they haven't really performed to their talent level. They were also hurting in the standings. Bounce up against an over performing Houston defense that just lost its QB.

Indy over performing their talent level ironically against the Packers. Bounce down against a desperate Jet team.

No offense, but this is really dumb. It's not a predictive "theory," it's backwards-looking nonsense.

No it's not. Good teams that are desperate (Packers) are dangerous. I thought they'd beat the Texans last night. And you better believe that the Giants came in extremely focused looking at the last 2 weeks of game film on the 49rs. That being said, there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging.

There is so much wrong with "bounce theory" it's hardly worth the time picking it apart. It's not a predictive theory, it's just an explanatory narrative. You said it yourself - "there is a reason I don't bet anymore. Trying to predict which teams will be up or down any given week is really challenging." If "bounce theory" was a real thing with predictive power, it would be pretty easy to consistently profit by identifying the teams that will "bounce" up or down on any given week. But it isn't, at least not based on loosely-defined notions like, "A good team that has been under performing is likely to bounce. A team that has been over performing is likely to bounce down."

It's just ex post facto reasoning. Green Bay was a "good" team that had been underperforming, and they win - therefore they "bounced" up. In week 4, Detroit was a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat Minnesota? In week 3, the Saints were a "good" team that had been underperforming, why didn't they "bounce" up and beat the Chiefs?

outstanding post. THe OP has it right - some of this stuff is just unpredictable.

Greg Cosell, who has spent a career watching tape, doesn't like to predict games because he said (paraphrasing) that there are too many variables.

 

[cstu]

I agree, very unpredictable thus far.4 way tie in the AFC east?! I would have never seen that coming.

The entire AFC West with three 4-2 teams and the worst is 3-3?

 

[cstu]

I agree, very unpredictable thus far.4 way tie in the AFC east?! I would have never seen that coming.

Just another thing that IMO does make this year less predictable than other years. The Greene anomoly... and it WAS an anomoly is my biggest head scratcher and it cannot be explained simply by what we all know is a porous run defense. I watch every Jets game. Usually twice if I can stand it. Greene has NOT shown the burst, power or wiggle he displayed yesterday at all this year, and it's not even close. It's like he transformed into a different player. His previous performances were dismal. No power, no burst, no speed, zero elusiveness. Hesitant to hit the hole. Going down on first contact. He was a different RB yesterday. I think with Greene it's all in his head. He came into the game beleiving he could have a good game, and ran like an RB with purpose, with confidence. You can't play in this league scared. I think CJ-no-K is having the same sort of problem. It's in his head. "Oh, my O line sucks, no holes, I can't win here... yadayada."

He was good against an average Bills defense. Then he sucked against the Steelers, Dolphins, 49ers and Texans - all top 10 defenses. Sunday he demolished the 29th ranked Colts defense.It might be in his head, but I don't think he has the skills to play against good defenses. He's got three more tough matchups coming up vs. the Pats, Dolphins and Seahawks.

 

[texasheat]

One thing has remained consistent, Andy Reid is still a joke of a head coach.

I'll trade you Jason Garrett straight up, I'll even throw in a bag of Cheetos to sweeten the deal.

 

[Ryan99]

One thing has remained consistent, Andy Reid is still a joke of a head coach.

God, Reid is terrible. You'd think the best ever head coach of the 6th oldest NFL franchise, the 16th highest-winning-percentage coach ever in the NFL, would be at least average.