Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Some major tweaks in this version.
Orginal top-ten from February
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1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson
4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green
5. Arizona - LB Von Miller
6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton
7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert
8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn
Updated top-ten list on March 5th
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1. Carolina - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
The Combine hurt Fairley's value. Peter King swears he has fallen. On the other hand Dereus had a great combine and the raw numbers show him being 20 lbs heavier and having a quicker short-shuttle, i.e., explosion off the snap than Fairley. All signs point to him being a 'safer' pick and rising up draft boards so I moved him in to the top slot.
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
I stick with Bowers going to Denver.
3. Buffalo - LB Von Miller
I've come around on Von Miller having big time pass rush game.
4. Cincinnati - CB Patrick Paterson
No corner has ever gone with the first pick before so I don't see it.
5. Arizona - QB Blaine Gabbert
Cam raised enough questions that his stock dropped. Comparatively Gabbert's stock rose and I think if Miller is off the board that Arizona will go QB and nab Gabbert.
6. Cleveland - WR A.J. Green
Green has done nothing wrong but is nudged down due to Gabbert getting taken higher.
7. San Francisco - DE/OLB Robert Quinn
Quinn's is a pass rushing force who projects as an OLB ALA DeMarcus Ware and that could work in his favor rather than having to play up on the LOS because I think he's weak against the run and he could fit better if he doesn't have to directly take on blockers every snap.
8. Tennessee - DT Nick Farley
Fairely could go much higher, even back to #1 but if he gets passed on the top three picks then he could slide all the way down to the 8th pick.
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
Prince to Dallas still seems a good fit to me.
10. Washington - QB Cam Newton
Cam is at least one year away from transfering his raw incredible athletic skills into being a legit starter. I don't feel he's ready to plug and play and that he needs a solid offensive QB guru like Shanahan to, coach, mentor, ride him into growing into his potential.
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Latest update March 31st
1. Carolina – QB Cam Newton
The reasoning fits into a classic decision-box. If I’m the new Lina head coach I wouldn’t bet my NFL career on Jimmy Clausen but I don’t want to spend the first pick on a guy like Cam so I first look to NFL free agency but I can’t count on landing anyone in free agency with the NFL blocking that path. Second I look at a possible trade but once again I am blocked by the NFL labor issue. Third I would prefer to get a guy who drops into the second round and use the top pick on a sure-fire D-lineman like Dareus but the previous regime traded away that pick so I’m limited to looking at the top QB from this draft. Why Cam Netwon over Blaine Gabbert? The Panthers reportedly have been all over Newton. They would prefer to trade down and pick up extra picks but at the end of the day nobody is trading up to the top pick so they take Newton and use Clausen for as long as they can becuase its going to take Newton a good year till he's ready to perminently move under center.
2. Denver – DT Marcell Dareus
The Broncos are sure to kick the tires on Bowers and Pat Peterson but Dareus is something they haven't seen since Trevor Pryce was in his prime, a D-Lineman who can play the run and generate a pass rush from the inside. Marcell has no charector issues and he just so happens to be fill a big need and is a nice fit for either a 3-4 or a 4-3. The Broncos are making a transition so he can shift between shcemes if they backtrack and switch back to the 34. Why Dareus over Bowers? Marcell has a higher floor and the Broncos have had success in the past finding pass rushers later in the draft like Elvis Dumervill. Then Broncos take the safe route and get a big man who is also a high character guy with a consistently high reving motor.
3. Buffalo – LB Von Miller
At the Senior Bowl Chan Gailey and the rest of the Bills staff coached the squad that Von Miller was on. They got to see him up-close every day where he got rave reviews. The Bills need help at many areas and I think if Newton fell to the third pick they would take him up but they will be happy to settle for a pass rushing force at OLB to help boost one of the weakest pass rushes in the league. They should be sold on him due to the Senior Bowl exposure.
4. Cincinnati – QB Blaine Gabbert
Carson Palmer listed his house at $2.1 million. He’s serious about moving on or retiring and the Bengals have said they are operating like he’s already gone. If the Bengals take a QB Palmer could even be traded for a first round pick this year or they may understandably want Palmer to start this year while they give a rookie time to learn the offense and develop his game. The Bengals used a first round pick on a top-flight TE last year and they still might keep Ocho Cinco and go with their young wideouts. I don't see them passing on a QB if they get a chane to draft one and I think they prefer Gabbert over Newton.
5. Arizona – CB Patrick Peterson
Probably not the way that the Cards want the draft board to go. They would prefer Gabbert but if he is gone they would look at the second round for a QB. If Blaine is gone then Miller would be their next choice but in this scenario he’s also gone so they decide to shift Rolle to safety and pair Peterson with Cromarte to form possibly the best secondary in the league. The added benefit is that Peterson can bolster their special teams. This pick could provide instant production which is essential in this draft especially with a top-ten pick. The fact the Cards would get a bonus of an exta top-flight special team player cement this pick if the draft plays out as I speculate.
6. Cleveland – DE Da‘Quan Bowers
A.J. Green and Nick Fairley are also in the mix but the Browns lack any viable starting 4-3 DEs to play outside of DT Ahtyba Rubin. The Browns cross their fingers and hope Bowers' knee checks out and that they can plug him to start at DE from day one becuase they are wafer thin at DE. Browns GM Tom Heckert was in Philadelphia when the Eagles were able to grab WR DeSean Jackson in the second round but at the same the three highest draft picks used while Heckert was there were, DT Corey Simon (6th pick), DE Jerome McDougle (15th), and DT Brodrick Bunkley (14th), all defensive linemen. The Browns biggest need meshes nicely with available talent before factoring in draft history of Heckert. Da’Quan Bowers looks like the best talent left on the board and he plays a position at the area of greatest need for the Browns.
7. San Francisco – CB Prince Amukamara
The Niners saw both QB go off the board and then had Pat Peterson get snatched. Many have them plugging in DT Nick Fairley but he is tailor made for being a penetrating 3 tech DT in a 4-3. Nick is undersized for a 0 tech 3-4 NT or a 5 tech 3-4 DE so I don’t see him going to San Fran. The Niners have Crabtree so I don’t see them paying another top-ten wideout like A.J. Green or Julio Jones and DE Robert Quinn hasn’t proven he can do drops to play effective coverage so he has to be considered a project to make the conversion to a full time starting 3-4 OLB. He has excellent edge pass rush ability but the Niners can’t take a gamble on a project or a situational pass rush specialist so even though Peterson is off the board they still address CB and take Prince.
8. Tennessee – DT Nick Fairley
The Titans envisage Fairley lining up next to last year’s first round draft pick Derek Morgan for a dream team on their D-Line. The upside of Fairley supercedes any downside by the time the 8th pick is on the clock so at this point in the draft Nick Fairley is a bargain, ching-ching!
9. Dallas – DE J.J. Watt
The Boys won’t go with another top-ten WR after drafting Dez Bryant and his saggy pants so cross off A.J. Green. I don’t feel that any O-lineman rate a top-ten selection even though many have and will argue O-line with this pick. No other CB is worth this pick either and I am still high on OLB Anthony Spencer playing opposite DeMarcus Ware so I go with the highest rated 5 tech 3-4 DE to bolster the front line. The Boys new DC Rob Ryan seeks to replace Igor Olshansky, the weakest link in the Dallas front seven. Watt comes in as an immediate starter and anchors the right side for years.
10. Washington – WR A.J. Green
Steal of the draft falls into Shanahan’s lap to offset any angst of missing out on a top QB. Green is a no-brain pick if he falls this far so the Skins bypass Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith and try the difficult transition of converting a down lineman to stand-up 3-4 OLB which typically takes a solid two years if it is successful. Washington has nothing at WR and Santana Moss looks like he’ll leave in free agency once things start up again. They can’t pass on Green is he’s there not even if they get offers to trade down for more draft picks.
Orginal top-ten from February
==============
1. Carolina - DT Nick Farley
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Paterson
4. Cincinnati - WR A.J. Green
5. Arizona - LB Von Miller
6. **trade** Cleveland trades down with Washington**Washington - QB Cam Newton
7. San Francisco - QB Blaine Gabbert
8. Tennessee - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
10. **trade** Cleveland w/Washington - DE Robert Quinn
Updated top-ten list on March 5th
==============
1. Carolina - DE/DT Marcell Dereus
The Combine hurt Fairley's value. Peter King swears he has fallen. On the other hand Dereus had a great combine and the raw numbers show him being 20 lbs heavier and having a quicker short-shuttle, i.e., explosion off the snap than Fairley. All signs point to him being a 'safer' pick and rising up draft boards so I moved him in to the top slot.
2. Denver - DE Da Quan Bowers
I stick with Bowers going to Denver.
3. Buffalo - LB Von Miller
I've come around on Von Miller having big time pass rush game.
4. Cincinnati - CB Patrick Paterson
No corner has ever gone with the first pick before so I don't see it.
5. Arizona - QB Blaine Gabbert
Cam raised enough questions that his stock dropped. Comparatively Gabbert's stock rose and I think if Miller is off the board that Arizona will go QB and nab Gabbert.
6. Cleveland - WR A.J. Green
Green has done nothing wrong but is nudged down due to Gabbert getting taken higher.
7. San Francisco - DE/OLB Robert Quinn
Quinn's is a pass rushing force who projects as an OLB ALA DeMarcus Ware and that could work in his favor rather than having to play up on the LOS because I think he's weak against the run and he could fit better if he doesn't have to directly take on blockers every snap.
8. Tennessee - DT Nick Farley
Fairely could go much higher, even back to #1 but if he gets passed on the top three picks then he could slide all the way down to the 8th pick.
9. Dallas - CB Pince Akumara
Prince to Dallas still seems a good fit to me.
10. Washington - QB Cam Newton
Cam is at least one year away from transfering his raw incredible athletic skills into being a legit starter. I don't feel he's ready to plug and play and that he needs a solid offensive QB guru like Shanahan to, coach, mentor, ride him into growing into his potential.
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Latest update March 31st
1. Carolina – QB Cam Newton
The reasoning fits into a classic decision-box. If I’m the new Lina head coach I wouldn’t bet my NFL career on Jimmy Clausen but I don’t want to spend the first pick on a guy like Cam so I first look to NFL free agency but I can’t count on landing anyone in free agency with the NFL blocking that path. Second I look at a possible trade but once again I am blocked by the NFL labor issue. Third I would prefer to get a guy who drops into the second round and use the top pick on a sure-fire D-lineman like Dareus but the previous regime traded away that pick so I’m limited to looking at the top QB from this draft. Why Cam Netwon over Blaine Gabbert? The Panthers reportedly have been all over Newton. They would prefer to trade down and pick up extra picks but at the end of the day nobody is trading up to the top pick so they take Newton and use Clausen for as long as they can becuase its going to take Newton a good year till he's ready to perminently move under center.
2. Denver – DT Marcell Dareus
The Broncos are sure to kick the tires on Bowers and Pat Peterson but Dareus is something they haven't seen since Trevor Pryce was in his prime, a D-Lineman who can play the run and generate a pass rush from the inside. Marcell has no charector issues and he just so happens to be fill a big need and is a nice fit for either a 3-4 or a 4-3. The Broncos are making a transition so he can shift between shcemes if they backtrack and switch back to the 34. Why Dareus over Bowers? Marcell has a higher floor and the Broncos have had success in the past finding pass rushers later in the draft like Elvis Dumervill. Then Broncos take the safe route and get a big man who is also a high character guy with a consistently high reving motor.
3. Buffalo – LB Von Miller
At the Senior Bowl Chan Gailey and the rest of the Bills staff coached the squad that Von Miller was on. They got to see him up-close every day where he got rave reviews. The Bills need help at many areas and I think if Newton fell to the third pick they would take him up but they will be happy to settle for a pass rushing force at OLB to help boost one of the weakest pass rushes in the league. They should be sold on him due to the Senior Bowl exposure.
4. Cincinnati – QB Blaine Gabbert
Carson Palmer listed his house at $2.1 million. He’s serious about moving on or retiring and the Bengals have said they are operating like he’s already gone. If the Bengals take a QB Palmer could even be traded for a first round pick this year or they may understandably want Palmer to start this year while they give a rookie time to learn the offense and develop his game. The Bengals used a first round pick on a top-flight TE last year and they still might keep Ocho Cinco and go with their young wideouts. I don't see them passing on a QB if they get a chane to draft one and I think they prefer Gabbert over Newton.
5. Arizona – CB Patrick Peterson
Probably not the way that the Cards want the draft board to go. They would prefer Gabbert but if he is gone they would look at the second round for a QB. If Blaine is gone then Miller would be their next choice but in this scenario he’s also gone so they decide to shift Rolle to safety and pair Peterson with Cromarte to form possibly the best secondary in the league. The added benefit is that Peterson can bolster their special teams. This pick could provide instant production which is essential in this draft especially with a top-ten pick. The fact the Cards would get a bonus of an exta top-flight special team player cement this pick if the draft plays out as I speculate.
6. Cleveland – DE Da‘Quan Bowers
A.J. Green and Nick Fairley are also in the mix but the Browns lack any viable starting 4-3 DEs to play outside of DT Ahtyba Rubin. The Browns cross their fingers and hope Bowers' knee checks out and that they can plug him to start at DE from day one becuase they are wafer thin at DE. Browns GM Tom Heckert was in Philadelphia when the Eagles were able to grab WR DeSean Jackson in the second round but at the same the three highest draft picks used while Heckert was there were, DT Corey Simon (6th pick), DE Jerome McDougle (15th), and DT Brodrick Bunkley (14th), all defensive linemen. The Browns biggest need meshes nicely with available talent before factoring in draft history of Heckert. Da’Quan Bowers looks like the best talent left on the board and he plays a position at the area of greatest need for the Browns.
7. San Francisco – CB Prince Amukamara
The Niners saw both QB go off the board and then had Pat Peterson get snatched. Many have them plugging in DT Nick Fairley but he is tailor made for being a penetrating 3 tech DT in a 4-3. Nick is undersized for a 0 tech 3-4 NT or a 5 tech 3-4 DE so I don’t see him going to San Fran. The Niners have Crabtree so I don’t see them paying another top-ten wideout like A.J. Green or Julio Jones and DE Robert Quinn hasn’t proven he can do drops to play effective coverage so he has to be considered a project to make the conversion to a full time starting 3-4 OLB. He has excellent edge pass rush ability but the Niners can’t take a gamble on a project or a situational pass rush specialist so even though Peterson is off the board they still address CB and take Prince.
8. Tennessee – DT Nick Fairley
The Titans envisage Fairley lining up next to last year’s first round draft pick Derek Morgan for a dream team on their D-Line. The upside of Fairley supercedes any downside by the time the 8th pick is on the clock so at this point in the draft Nick Fairley is a bargain, ching-ching!
9. Dallas – DE J.J. Watt
The Boys won’t go with another top-ten WR after drafting Dez Bryant and his saggy pants so cross off A.J. Green. I don’t feel that any O-lineman rate a top-ten selection even though many have and will argue O-line with this pick. No other CB is worth this pick either and I am still high on OLB Anthony Spencer playing opposite DeMarcus Ware so I go with the highest rated 5 tech 3-4 DE to bolster the front line. The Boys new DC Rob Ryan seeks to replace Igor Olshansky, the weakest link in the Dallas front seven. Watt comes in as an immediate starter and anchors the right side for years.
10. Washington – WR A.J. Green
Steal of the draft falls into Shanahan’s lap to offset any angst of missing out on a top QB. Green is a no-brain pick if he falls this far so the Skins bypass Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith and try the difficult transition of converting a down lineman to stand-up 3-4 OLB which typically takes a solid two years if it is successful. Washington has nothing at WR and Santana Moss looks like he’ll leave in free agency once things start up again. They can’t pass on Green is he’s there not even if they get offers to trade down for more draft picks.
I could easily see it going exactly like that! Well done.
