US economy thread (2 Viewers)

[Ilov80s]

What the heck is “personal brand building”??? You mean like having fun and doing stuff you like?

 

[BassNBrew]

People nowadays are willing to pay lots of $$$ to buy experiences as part of their own personal brand-building. I find it bizarre that so many people are wired that way, but admittedly I generally don’t care what other people think about me…..

Not really a bad decision, if you're spending money you can afford. I have no beef at all with people dropping coin for Taylor Swift concerts (or whatever). I shelled out for Row 1 end zone seats a few years ago, and it was definitely worth it just to be able to catch my son and me on the broadcast later on. Then again, I wasn't doing that for my "personal brand" or anything either.

Then at the other extreme, I'm watching the Euro final on Youtube with a box thru 1/2 the view area because I'm too cheap for cable.

 

[SFBayDuck]

What the heck is “personal brand building”??? You mean like having fun and doing stuff you like?

It's like when @BassNBrew posts about how he's too cheap for cable. Building his FFA persona and brand.

(I love ya, gb BNB!!)

 

[Gatorade]

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

Who ?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

What the heck is “personal brand building”??? You mean like having fun and doing stuff you like?

People who post every minute of their life on TikTok or Instagram. It’s basically a “look at me” mindset that I’m referencing. Then again, people can do whatever they want. Really not any of my business.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Having survived the collapse of the dollar (2021), hyperinflation (2022), and the worst recession in history (2023)... now we have to live through the worst stock market crash of all time. It seems unfair.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Having survived the collapse of the dollar (2021), hyperinflation (2022), and the worst recession in history (2023)... now we have to live through the worst stock market crash of all time. It seems unfair.

Kinda weird to post this now that the labor market does seem to be genuinely weakening.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Kinda weird to post this now that the labor market does seem to be genuinely weakening.

It was more about the concerted effort yesterday to convince everyone that the world was ending.

On the labor softening, do you think it's pre-recessionary? I've seen some compelling arguments that it's more post-COVID resetting rather than fundamental weakness. But don't have a strong opinion either way -- and we're probably due for an actual business cycle recession.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Kinda weird to post this now that the labor market does seem to be genuinely weakening.

It was more about the concerted effort yesterday to convince everyone that the world was ending.

On the labor softening, do you think it's pre-recessionary? I've seen some compelling arguments that it's more post-COVID resetting rather than fundamental weakness. But don't have a strong opinion either way -- and we're probably due for an actual business cycle recession.

Nobody here was making that argument. Keep it on Twitter.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Kinda weird to post this now that the labor market does seem to be genuinely weakening.

It was more about the concerted effort yesterday to convince everyone that the world was ending.

On the labor softening, do you think it's pre-recessionary? I've seen some compelling arguments that it's more post-COVID resetting rather than fundamental weakness. But don't have a strong opinion either way -- and we're probably due for an actual business cycle recession.

Nobody here was making that argument. Keep it on Twitter.

Seriously. Poke your head into the stock thread yesterday and most were very level headed and were actually buying…….if you could access your brokerage account.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yep ... that's my bad.

 

[Max Power]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[HomerSimpson]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

 

[-OZ-]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

Nope, we’re doing it right.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

I've fallen into a bit of a habit of watching Dave Ramsey videos on YouTube when I'm bored and have nothing better to do. At first, I couldn't figure out why this guy is so popular when he gives such objectively bad financial advice. Paying off your debt by starting with your smallest loan instead of the one with the higher interest rate is mathematically suboptimal. Holding off on stock market investing until you get your mortgage paid off is mathematically suboptimal. Turning down free money by not charging everything you possibly can to your credit card and paying it off each month is mathematically suboptimal. Ramsey really, really hates it when people use credit cards, and I couldn't quite wrap my mind around it. I have hundreds of dollars in Amazon credits just sitting there whenever I need them. Sure, that's not a source of wealth, but wealthy people don't make a habit of turning down free money, right?

Eventually, it clicked. People like us, who understand stuff like this and have the self-discipline to take advantage, are solidly in the minority. Most people can't be trusted with easy access to credit, and we see the results when we look at credit card debt, car loans, student loans, etc. I'm coming around to the opinion that our personal finance industry (speaking very broadly) is another one of those things that works just great for people with 115 IQs and does a real disservice to the equally-large number of people with 85 IQs.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

Again, credit card debt is ALWAYS at a record high. This is true of all forms of debt. More people, more money in circulation, more inflation. Credit card debt set a new record high in 2016, and then 2017, and then again in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. It will set a new high in 2025, 2026, 2040, 2050, and nearly all the years in between.

The only time credit card debt doesn't sit at record highs is in the middle of big financial crisis' when the banks collect more aggressively, like the dot com crash and the great financial crisis. So the only thing credit card debt being at a record high tells us is that we're not in the middle of a giant financial crisis yet.

 

[Max Power]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

Too many people "living in the moment" or don't have an understanding of how credit cards actually work. And then some people are happy to ruin to their credit score for free money...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

I've fallen into a bit of a habit of watching Dave Ramsey videos on YouTube when I'm bored and have nothing better to do. At first, I couldn't figure out why this guy is so popular when he gives such objectively bad financial advice. Paying off your debt by starting with your smallest loan instead of the one with the higher interest rate is mathematically suboptimal. Holding off on stock market investing until you get your mortgage paid off is mathematically suboptimal. Turning down free money by not charging everything you possibly can to your credit card and paying it off each month is mathematically suboptimal. Ramsey really, really hates it when people use credit cards, and I couldn't quite wrap my mind around it. I have hundreds of dollars in Amazon credits just sitting there whenever I need them. Sure, that's not a source of wealth, but wealthy people don't make a habit of turning down free money, right?

Eventually, it clicked. People like us, who understand stuff like this and have the self-discipline to take advantage, are solidly in the minority. Most people can't be trusted with easy access to credit, and we see the results when we look at credit card debt, car loans, student loans, etc. I'm coming around to the opinion that our personal finance industry (speaking very broadly) is another one of those things that works just great for people with 115 IQs and does a real disservice to the equally-large number of people with 85 IQs.

I wonder about Ramsey sometimes. Your point is solid but Ramsey also talked his followers into using a fraudulent time share exit company and then doubled down when they were exposed as fraudulent, while collecting $30M of kickbacks from the scam. So I also wonder how much of Ramsey's schtick he actually believes and how much is just him half-accidentally falling into a niche that helped him stand out in a sea of advisors and going all-in to capitalize on it.

 

[HomerSimpson]

My ex Girlfriend had a "Investment account" her Dad made for her. It was making like 6% per year. Not bad. But her Credit Card debt was twice as big and she was making minimum payments at 24%. I was like OMG sell some of the investment account and pay off your CC !? The math isn't mathin! I think that's what a lot of people don't understand.

 

[Max Power]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

Again, credit card debt is ALWAYS at a record high. This is true of all forms of debt. More people, more money to borrow, more inflation. Credit card debt set a new record high in 2016, and then 2017, and then again in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. It will set a new high in 2025, 2026, 2040, 2050, and nearly all the years in between.

The only time credit card debt doesn't sit at record highs is in the middle of big financial crisis' when the banks collect more aggressively, like the dot com crash and the great financial crisis. So the only thing credit card debt being at a record high tells us is that we're not in the middle of a giant financial crisis yet.

American's paid off large portions of credit card debt in 2021. We've just ballooned it back up again faster than historic trends. Credit card delinquencies are up to almost 11% and haven't been that high in over a decade.

Credit card debt isn't the end of the world, but should serve as red flag when we're talking about how well the economy is doing. It's being propped up by credit that only has so much of a lifeline and isn't sustainable. These numbers don't even factor in the BNPL debt which is estimated to be over 100 billion dollars in the US alone. BNPL started as a 3B industry and is growing exponentially each year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

Again, credit card debt is ALWAYS at a record high. This is true of all forms of debt. More people, more money to borrow, more inflation. Credit card debt set a new record high in 2016, and then 2017, and then again in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. It will set a new high in 2025, 2026, 2040, 2050, and nearly all the years in between.

The only time credit card debt doesn't sit at record highs is in the middle of big financial crisis' when the banks collect more aggressively, like the dot com crash and the great financial crisis. So the only thing credit card debt being at a record high tells us is that we're not in the middle of a giant financial crisis yet.

American's paid off large portions of credit card debt in 2021. We've just ballooned it back up again faster than historic trends. Credit card delinquencies are up to almost 11% and haven't been that high in over a decade.

Credit card debt isn't the end of the world, but should serve as red flag when we're talking about how well the economy is doing. It's being propped up by credit that only has so much of a lifeline and isn't sustainable. These numbers don't even factor in the BNPL debt which is estimated to be over 100 billion dollars in the US alone. BNPL started as a 3B industry and is growing exponentially each year.

Non-housing debt (which I assume is mostly credit cards) grew by $160bn in 2021. That was lower growth than the last few years, but still growth, and whatever we "paid down" in 2021 we still borrowed more than it.

It's not necessarily a red flag when we're talking about how the economy is doing. Statistically it's unrelated. In every great economic cycle credit card debt was growing. It's always true. In some ways it's the opposite because the only way credit card debt shrinks is if bank's tighten policies, which they only do when they foresee problems. That's not to say they're any better about predicting the future than we are, but it's not really an indicator of anything. It's only an indicator in the same way that a perma-bear that always says the stock market is going to crash is eventually right when one day the stock market does crash. Since credit card debt is ALWAYS increasing, that means before every economic crash it was increasing. The sun also rose over the horizon before every economic crash, and the oceans always had waves before every economic crash as well, so those are similar indicators.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit cards are the devil as far as I'm concerned, but this really should only ever be reported as a % of GDP or a % of HH income. As long as GDP keep rising and inflation is a thing, the nominal debt numbers are going to go up. But bigger doesn't always mean worse.

ETA: Debt service payments as a percentage of HH Income are nowhere near alarming right now.

 

[Desert_Power]

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

I've fallen into a bit of a habit of watching Dave Ramsey videos on YouTube when I'm bored and have nothing better to do. At first, I couldn't figure out why this guy is so popular when he gives such objectively bad financial advice. Paying off your debt by starting with your smallest loan instead of the one with the higher interest rate is mathematically suboptimal. Holding off on stock market investing until you get your mortgage paid off is mathematically suboptimal. Turning down free money by not charging everything you possibly can to your credit card and paying it off each month is mathematically suboptimal. Ramsey really, really hates it when people use credit cards, and I couldn't quite wrap my mind around it. I have hundreds of dollars in Amazon credits just sitting there whenever I need them. Sure, that's not a source of wealth, but wealthy people don't make a habit of turning down free money, right?

Eventually, it clicked. People like us, who understand stuff like this and have the self-discipline to take advantage, are solidly in the minority. Most people can't be trusted with easy access to credit, and we see the results when we look at credit card debt, car loans, student loans, etc. I'm coming around to the opinion that our personal finance industry (speaking very broadly) is another one of those things that works just great for people with 115 IQs and does a real disservice to the equally-large number of people with 85 IQs.

I wonder about Ramsey sometimes. Your point is solid but Ramsey also talked his followers into using a fraudulent time share exit company and then doubled down when they were exposed as fraudulent, while collecting $30M of kickbacks from the scam. So I also wonder how much of Ramsey's schtick he actually believes and how much is just him half-accidentally falling into a niche that helped him stand out in a sea of advisors and going all-in to capitalize on it.

It's an interesting scam because it really only takes advantage of you when you have climbed out of the big hole. He's undoubtedly helped a lot of people get out of debt. But if you keep following him after that hurdle and look to him for investment advice, that is where you get got.

 

[massraider]

But if you keep following him after that hurdle and look to him for investment advice, that is where you get got.

This.

 

[General Malaise]

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

Who ?

OLIVIA RODRIGO!

 

[belljr]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit card debt in America reached another record high in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The outstanding balance grew to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27 billion from the prior quarter and has now stubbornly remained at or near this figure for three consecutive quarters. Credit card delinquencies, defined as being more than one month behind on required minimum payments, also went up, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1%.



"I wish I could say I was surprised, but I'm not," said Mark Elliot, chief customer officer of LendingClub. "One of the things we have seen over the last several years is an uptick in consumers' reliance on credit cards, largely driven not by unemployment, as we've seen in the past, but by inflation and making ends meet day to day."

In addition to a record-high balance, average credit card APRs reached 21.51% in November, just shy of the record-high 21.59% reached in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Together, higher debt balances and higher APRs create a one-two punch that further exacerbates the credit card debt crisis.

Many are borrowing more money to make ends meet -- and it's not just credit card debt on the rise. Home equity lines of credit increased by $4 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the same 90-day period, the FRBNY report found. Some are also leaning more into short-term loans in the form of buy now, pay later; use of BNPL on Cyber Monday 2023 rose 42.5% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.

MSN

www.msn.com

UGH. Maybe I'm just playing the game of life wrong, but I hate people who just put things on their cards and are "playing pretend" like they are "wealthy". I've literally never made a interest payment on my credit card in my life.

So you met my SiL

 

[massraider]

Why Stocks Corrected + Second Quarter Tech Earnings — ft. Mark Mahaney | Prof G Markets

This week on Prof G Markets, Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the global sell-off, Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio management, and Intel’s terrible ea...

www.youtube.com

Good Prof G podcast on the latest stuff

 

[SFBayDuck]

New record high for credit card debt.

Credit cards are the devil as far as I'm concerned, but this really should only ever be reported as a % of GDP or a % of HH income. As long as GDP keep rising and inflation is a thing, the nominal debt numbers are going to go up. But bigger doesn't always mean worse.

ETA: Debt service payments as a percentage of HH Income are nowhere near alarming right now.

We keep having this conversation.

 

[General Malaise]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

Stayed at the W in Scottsdale last night. Plenty of people buying $20 cocktails at both bars, and the hookers milling about made it clear lots of money is being spent there.

Also took my first autonomous vehicle ride in a Waymo. Pretty trippy, and saw several others roaming around.

This has been Scottsdale Today, brought to you by SFBD and GM. Now back to your regular programming.

 

[-OZ-]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

Stayed at the W in Scottsdale last night. Plenty of people buying $20 cocktails at both bars, and the hookers milling about made it clear lots of money is being spent there.

Also took my first autonomous vehicle ride in a Waymo. Pretty trippy, and saw several others roaming around.

This has been Scottsdale Today, brought to you by SFBD and GM. Now back to your regular programming.

I wonder if the autonomous vehicles are good for the Hooker business.

I also wonder if I’d even recognize a hooker before being quoted a price

 

[beer 30]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

Stayed at the W in Scottsdale last night. Plenty of people buying $20 cocktails at both bars, and the hookers milling about made it clear lots of money is being spent there.

Also took my first autonomous vehicle ride in a Waymo. Pretty trippy, and saw several others roaming around.

This has been Scottsdale Today, brought to you by SFBD and GM. Now back to your regular programming.

Thanks?

So real question, if a guy would come into a couple thousand dollars with no definitive immediate need for it (say between $3k and $6k), what would do with it? This guy is considering a high yield savings account but isn't sold on the idea. How does he make money with money with zero knowledge of investing.

Back to you Duck for today's weather on the 10's!

 

[beer 30]

I also wonder if I’d even recognize a hooker before being quoted a price

You and I wouldn't but Duck's a stud playa so...

 

[General Malaise]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

Stayed at the W in Scottsdale last night. Plenty of people buying $20 cocktails at both bars, and the hookers milling about made it clear lots of money is being spent there.

Also took my first autonomous vehicle ride in a Waymo. Pretty trippy, and saw several others roaming around.

This has been Scottsdale Today, brought to you by SFBD and GM. Now back to your regular programming.

Note to self: Go back and stay at the W......got it.

TY

 

[General Malaise]

Been meaning to post this in here for a couple weeks now, but kind of forgot. This is just more anecdotal stuff that just sort of stuck in my brain....

3 week road trip from Oregon to Scottsdale and back with a BUNCH of stops and stuff in between. Just a couple of observations:

1) The volume of truck traffic in California on I5, US 99, I10 and all points in between is staggering. All days, all hours of the days, the highways and roads of California are booming with truck activity. I think we passed 200 tomato trucks at least packed full to the brim with tomatoes. That's just one example - all sorts of trucks in various sizes, puffing along at 65 and clogging up precious highway space like cheese curds in a Wisconsin artery. Maybe it is like this all over the US, but the Ag Farming in California is unique and until you roll by the state and see it, it's hard to describe. So that's 1....if the economy is bad, commerce - at least in California - is humming along just fine.

2) We had two VRBO houses in Scottsdale, both very close to the Scottsdale Airport. Now, this is July; not a WHOLE lot of people milling around the city of Scottsdale. In fact, I'd go to the grocery store mid-day and would be outnumbered by employees to shoppers every time. It's strange. But the point I'm crawling to is that the airport belched out into the sky big, beautiful private jets every 10-15 minutes from morning to night. Not sure if those were all corporate jets or rich guy jets or what, but the amount of money needed to fill the Arizona sky with these sleek aluminum tubes has to be an astonishing figure. Fuel, pilots, crew, etc.....Felt like most of these planes were heading off to LA or SFO, but I was blown away by how busy that airport was during our 9 day stay.

That's all I got.

Stayed at the W in Scottsdale last night. Plenty of people buying $20 cocktails at both bars, and the hookers milling about made it clear lots of money is being spent there.

Also took my first autonomous vehicle ride in a Waymo. Pretty trippy, and saw several others roaming around.

This has been Scottsdale Today, brought to you by SFBD and GM. Now back to your regular programming.

Thanks?

So real question, if a guy would come into a couple thousand dollars with no definitive immediate need for it (say between $3k and $6k), what would do with it? This guy is considering a high yield savings account but isn't sold on the idea. How does he make money with money with zero knowledge of investing.

Back to you Duck for today's weather on the 10's!

Probably just park it in a 9-month CD for 5-6% and kick the can down the road.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Money markets are paying like 5+% right now @beer 30 -- and some of them don't have very high deposit requirements.

 

[-OZ-]

. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending.

Overall the top 20% is doing quite well. Generally speaking investments have outpaced inflation and if you have a low interest mortgage you’re in a great position. But I’ll disagree, somewhat vehemently here. Inflation absolutely affects the top 20%. Officially, the top 20% income is only $130k; the median NW of the top 20% is a measly $608,900. Inflation definitely has impacted this group.

 

[fruity pebbles]

. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending.

Overall the top 20% is doing quite well. Generally speaking investments have outpaced inflation and if you have a low interest mortgage you’re in a great position. But I’ll disagree, somewhat vehemently here. Inflation absolutely affects the top 20%. Officially, the top 20% income is only $130k; the median NW of the top 20% is a measly $608,900. Inflation definitely has impacted this group.

Of course it impacts them but not nearly as much imo. Rent and food are the majority of low earners spending, both have skyrocketed to the point where it takes the majority of their paychecks. Mortgage payments are more stable and a 30% increase in food costs impact someone making north of 100k far less than someone making 30k. It’s just an overall smaller percentage of their income.

 

[-OZ-]

. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending.

Overall the top 20% is doing quite well. Generally speaking investments have outpaced inflation and if you have a low interest mortgage you’re in a great position. But I’ll disagree, somewhat vehemently here. Inflation absolutely affects the top 20%. Officially, the top 20% income is only $130k; the median NW of the top 20% is a measly $608,900. Inflation definitely has impacted this group.

Of course it impacts them but not nearly as much imo. Rent and food are the majority of low earners spending, both have skyrocketed to the point where it takes the majority of their paychecks. Mortgage payments are more stable and a 30% increase in food costs impact someone making north of 100k far less than someone making 30k. It’s just an overall smaller percentage of their income.

The mortgage part vs rent I’ll absolutely agree.
As the breadwinner for a family of 7, food inflation definitely affects us.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

 

[Mitchie]

. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending.

Overall the top 20% is doing quite well. Generally speaking investments have outpaced inflation and if you have a low interest mortgage you’re in a great position. But I’ll disagree, somewhat vehemently here. Inflation absolutely affects the top 20%. Officially, the top 20% income is only $130k; the median NW of the top 20% is a measly $608,900. Inflation definitely has impacted this group.

Of course it impacts them but not nearly as much imo. Rent and food are the majority of low earners spending, both have skyrocketed to the point where it takes the majority of their paychecks. Mortgage payments are more stable and a 30% increase in food costs impact someone making north of 100k far less than someone making 30k. It’s just an overall smaller percentage of their income.

The mortgage part vs rent I’ll absolutely agree.
As the breadwinner for a family of 7, food inflation definitely affects us.

Most people don't have a family of 7. I'd be surprised if many people in the top cohort are thinking about inflation much. It's about 3% this year and last, wage income is up more than that. Yes it was high a few years ago and prices go up from that base but think people at the top have largely forgotten about it for the most part.

 

[massraider]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

I linked to a podcast earlier, and an analyst was discussing the fortunes of Uber/Lyft. They were discussing it in terms of their outlook, but he mentioned offhand that their revenue continues to grow. I looked it up, Uber is up 16% from '22 to '23.

Anyhow, it seems to me that Uber may be a pretty decent measure on middle America economy.

It's everywhere, it's a luxury that a lot of people use, no one really needs, and Uber Eats and Uber rides would be among the first things many people would give up. Just a thought

 

[SFBayDuck]

Along with the Scottsdale Ladies of the Night Economic Indicator I reported on earlier, I checked the In-N-Out Economic Indicator today on my drive from PDX back to Eugene as I passed Keizer, OR. Had to be at least 100 cars in the two lanes for the drive through (you can see it from I-5) at 2:30 in the afternoon. So while I didn't get to have my Double Double Protein style, I'd say the consumer is strong to quite strong in small town Oregon.

 

[Desert_Power]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

I linked to a podcast earlier, and an analyst was discussing the fortunes of Uber/Lyft. They were discussing it in terms of their outlook, but he mentioned offhand that their revenue continues to grow. I looked it up, Uber is up 16% from '22 to '23.

Anyhow, it seems to me that Uber may be a pretty decent measure on middle America economy.

It's everywhere, it's a luxury that a lot of people use, no one really needs, and Uber Eats and Uber rides would be among the first things many people would give up. Just a thought

Interesting aspect of this is that these are brands where savvy customers can easily get 10-20% off their services via gift cards.

 

[Battersbox]

Regarding inflation, I still think a reckoning must come for the insurance industry. Prices for both home and auto are absolutely out of control for much, or even most, of the country.

My homeowners insurance is up 100% in two years (no claims), and my auto insurance for my family is up 80% (no claims). This is unsustainable and affects even the top 10% of earners because we're talking about several hundred dollars a month combined for most folks. For me it's over $1k/month now where it was very recently sub $500/month.
Grocery inflation isn't always super painful for the well-to-do, but I think insurance inflation is more keenly felt even amongst the highest earners.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Regarding inflation, I still think a reckoning must come for the insurance industry. Prices for both home and auto are absolutely out of control for much, or even most, of the country.

My homeowners insurance is up 100% in two years (no claims), and my auto insurance for my family is up 80% (no claims). This is unsustainable and affects even the top 10% of earners because we're talking about several hundred dollars a month combined for most folks. For me it's over $1k/month now where it was very recently sub $500/month.
Grocery inflation isn't always super painful for the well-to-do, but I think insurance inflation is more keenly felt even amongst the highest earners.

what's the reckoning? honest question as i don't understand the insurance biz even a little.

 

[-OZ-]

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

True, but the bottom 20% in the US now have it better than most people anywhere else at any other time.

 

[guru_007]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

I linked to a podcast earlier, and an analyst was discussing the fortunes of Uber/Lyft. They were discussing it in terms of their outlook, but he mentioned offhand that their revenue continues to grow. I looked it up, Uber is up 16% from '22 to '23.

Anyhow, it seems to me that Uber may be a pretty decent measure on middle America economy.

It's everywhere, it's a luxury that a lot of people use, no one really needs, and Uber Eats and Uber rides would be among the first things many people wI ageee but with a bit of a caveat. The

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

I linked to a podcast earlier, and an analyst was discussing the fortunes of Uber/Lyft. They were discussing it in terms of their outlook, but he mentioned offhand that their revenue continues to grow. I looked it up, Uber is up 16% from '22 to '23.

Anyhow, it seems to me that Uber may be a pretty decent measure on middle America economy.

It's everywhere, it's a luxury that a lot of people use, no one really needs, and Uber Eats and Uber rides would be among the first things many people would give up. Just a thought

I agree with a lot of this but with a caveat.
I’ve ubered once in my life. I have the Ap but never used it personally (wife’s account one time). I’ve never used Uber eats. If I want something I go pick it up.
That said, my 27 year old daughter ( who makes more than me) uses both Uber and Uber eats/door dash multiple times per week. My eldest son uses each a few times a month and my 19 year old users Uber eats 2-3/month
I can well afford it, but I’m cheap. And old. With younger generation I think this is a stickier service and it will take a lot of economic shock for it to be affected. That to me will make it a more difficult barometer of the economy. Kids love it. They’ll give up other things before having someone bring food to their door. I’d need to be unbelievably rich, or disabled to use this service. It’s a mindset.

 

[Grahamburn]

Still think it’s a tale of two economies. The top 20% or so are doing very well, house prices are up, stock prices are up, inflation doesn’t affect them as much because it’s such a small percentage of their spending. The bottom 40% are flat out struggling or worse. That middle 40% are a case by case basis depending on job, debt load, whether you own your home etc.

For sure but I think those percentages are way off. The top 20% have always done well. The top 20% can't smash through new records for travel, concerts, ballpark tickets, restaurant spend, iphones, and basically every other non-essential item in existence. That requires the combined work of the entire populace.

Yes it blows for the bottom 20%, no doubt. But this is America and that's always the case, it's the system. Though I do still contend that we've all (including the bottom percentile) become accustomed to having more to the point where we spend on non-essential luxuries that people in the same socio-economic class of prior generations would have never even considered.

People under 25 spent over 40% as much on travel as boomers last year, which is an insanely high amount of spend for people that haven't even come close to entering their prime earning years yet. Anecdotally my sister in law is a single mom, kindergarten teacher that has seen Taylor Swift 4 times in the last few years, one of them in Rio as part of a big international trip. I honestly have no idea how she can afford that, but she's gonna spend on it anyway.

She can’t afford it. She put it on a credit card. But, who cares? Right?

At what point do these credit card companies fold when their customers default? I don’t know. They’re pretty flush. But, it’s coming, eventually.