Nugget
Footballguy
Showing up everyday is the most important thing I try to instill in young people. I don’t understand knocking participation trophies while also wishing young folks participated more.
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US economy thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jayrod
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I don’t get this. I work with a bunch of people who are 10-15 years younger than me. They probably on average have worked 5-15% “less hard” than I did but are way ahead of where I was at the same age. Good for them. I worked way too much, often with less focus on reaping immediate rewards. These folks have been mercenary-like in their focus on extracting favorable economics from their companies. Way better at it than I was at age 30-35.
So the idea that hard work doesn’t matter today, I or that people can’t get ahead with hard work, I just don’t have that experience in front of me.
the moops
Footballguy
I just think that if someone wants to pursue something different there is no reason to wish them ill and tell them you aren't welcome back. Be kind to others and all you know.Why so much hostility towards someone who may want to just go live somewhere else? I don't get itAs a Gen X guy, this is my reaction to people thinking about moving to other countries: be careful what you wish for and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
“So much hostility?” Overreact much?
Be careful what you wish for is a warning that the grass may not actually be greener elsewhere, that life might actually be better in the US than someone considering this realizes.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out is saying if you don’t want to be here, then leave, we will be fine without you.
Tau837
Footballguy
I just think that if someone wants to pursue something different there is no reason to wish them ill and tell them you aren't welcome back. Be kind to others and all you know.Why so much hostility towards someone who may want to just go live somewhere else? I don't get itAs a Gen X guy, this is my reaction to people thinking about moving to other countries: be careful what you wish for and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
“So much hostility?” Overreact much?
Be careful what you wish for is a warning that the grass may not actually be greener elsewhere, that life might actually be better in the US than someone considering this realizes.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out is saying if you don’t want to be here, then leave, we will be fine without you.
I did not “wish them ill” nor did I say they “aren’t welcome back.” You should consider responding to what is actually written, not what isn’t.
dkp993
Footballguy
I am certainly down with rewarding effort and teamwork. My daughter is 10 and been in sports since she was 6. Thing I have told her above all else is her results are not what make me proud or disappointed, it’s her effort. If she’s trying her hardest and strikes out 3 times in a game, she gets huge hugs from dad. It’s about the effort. But far too often what I’ve seen is the participation trophies are about shielding our kids from the pain of losing. Learning how to lose is maybe of one of the most important things sports teach you. We shouldn’t be trying to soothe that pain, we should be teaching them how to process, deal and react to it.
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the moops
Footballguy
OK sorry. Typically in my world when someone is like “don’t let the door hit you” they are pretty much saying good riddance. Apologies if that’s not what you meant but that’s how i took it.I just think that if someone wants to pursue something different there is no reason to wish them ill and tell them you aren't welcome back. Be kind to others and all you know.Why so much hostility towards someone who may want to just go live somewhere else? I don't get itAs a Gen X guy, this is my reaction to people thinking about moving to other countries: be careful what you wish for and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
“So much hostility?” Overreact much?
Be careful what you wish for is a warning that the grass may not actually be greener elsewhere, that life might actually be better in the US than someone considering this realizes.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out is saying if you don’t want to be here, then leave, we will be fine without you.
I did not “wish them ill” nor did I say they “aren’t welcome back.” You should consider responding to what is actually written, not what isn’t.
My overall point is that if someone wants to move elsewhere let’s show grace and wish them the best rather than demonize their choices.
the moops
Footballguy
I have several bowling trophy and patches from like 1982 when I was 8 years old. I wasn’t a particularly good bowler. They are in essence participation trophies/patches. It may be more prevalent now but it’s not new.
dkp993
Footballguy
If you don’t see the type of parenting today as any different then in 1982 then we are simply operating in different realities and aren’t going to see eye to eye on this.
the moops
Footballguy
I intentionally said it is more prevalent today. Just pushing back a bit on the these things never happened before thing
dkp993
Footballguy
Fair, though I’m not sure I ever said they never did. Either way, point taken.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Snippy in here
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Bad work:life balance does that.
3C's
Footballguy
That and being shown the door on your way out.
If I want out bad enough I'll find the damn door myself.
MAC_32
Footballguy
A lot of the feedback over the last page aligns with...
When I say blame is misdirected, all of this is what I'm getting at and is why I think the anecdotal experiences hit at from these 3 vary wildly from dkp. Why is dkp's experience different? Because he's not employing (m)any people that see that role as their career path. These people were generally both poorly raised and not committed to the work - I think it'd be crazy to expect a better work environment vs ~10 years ago. My work experiences bring me into contact with both of these types. While it's different than 80's since I'm admin and he's in the classroom, I think there's good reason we're on the same page, and I am similarly curious if he also has history in the service industry. I don't share this to suggest we're an authority on these matters, but if we're sharing something that runs counter to a bias, perhaps greater scrutiny in one's own opinions are warranted. Because...
To conclude, I understand those that pushed back on Gian and Steve (others too) before then continued on don't like what they just read and probably won't retain most of it within the next few days, if not hours or minutes. As I mentioned before, this is not a new subject for me, this is not the first time I've talked about it, I'm fairly certain it's not the first time I've read similar feedback from these same posters. I think that represents an apt lens into our macro picture. This is who we are, a society of those that insulate in our biases and anecdotal experiences. There's also good reason I am delivering a similar message now as I did 5, 10, 15 years ago. It isn't because I am insulated in my own biases, it's because to this point, I've been right. And if all this were summarized...
...what I wrote here. Please bear with me as...
...it's the data points collected throughout this thread and beyond, but it needs to be pulled together into one macro picture, not individual anecdotal experiences.
For low-income earners, bluntly, yes. I hope that response doesn't prevent, you and others from continuing on.
What's insinuated above is much less of a problem for those young people on a career path. Hence...
...this. Are they subjectively not working as hard as those that came before them? I think there's some truth to that, work smarter not harder, and 'my career' comes first. Why is that? Tasker and Gian hit on it a couple pages back. These younger generations have looked at what's happened with their elders, current conditions, and what may lie ahead then made decisions accordingly. Loyalty was a thing when pensions were also a thing, the means to getting a big raise is to move companies, and entitlement cuts (eventually) seem inevitable. These yutes are saddled with student loan debt and a housing market that exploded, especially if you want to get into a good school district. There is only one path to getting there while still at an age to raise a family - significant raises in one's career. The game has been rigged so that to beat it, yutes need to approach it as mercenaries. And why would a mercenary also not covet work : life balance. The lack of question mark is intentional. Loyalty is a 2-way street, so if it's not given, expecting it to be sent back is silly.
When I say blame is misdirected, all of this is what I'm getting at and is why I think the anecdotal experiences hit at from these 3 vary wildly from dkp. Why is dkp's experience different? Because he's not employing (m)any people that see that role as their career path. These people were generally both poorly raised and not committed to the work - I think it'd be crazy to expect a better work environment vs ~10 years ago. My work experiences bring me into contact with both of these types. While it's different than 80's since I'm admin and he's in the classroom, I think there's good reason we're on the same page, and I am similarly curious if he also has history in the service industry. I don't share this to suggest we're an authority on these matters, but if we're sharing something that runs counter to a bias, perhaps greater scrutiny in one's own opinions are warranted. Because...
...this is, and has been, a problem for more than a generation. And...
...it is reasonable to expect some individuals to overcome their environment, but when I say it's foolish to expect better from the unmotivated I am speaking from a macro level.
To conclude, I understand those that pushed back on Gian and Steve (others too) before then continued on don't like what they just read and probably won't retain most of it within the next few days, if not hours or minutes. As I mentioned before, this is not a new subject for me, this is not the first time I've talked about it, I'm fairly certain it's not the first time I've read similar feedback from these same posters. I think that represents an apt lens into our macro picture. This is who we are, a society of those that insulate in our biases and anecdotal experiences. There's also good reason I am delivering a similar message now as I did 5, 10, 15 years ago. It isn't because I am insulated in my own biases, it's because to this point, I've been right. And if all this were summarized...
...that's it. The bolded is not new, it's been a thing for decades. Hell, I remember writing papers about this subject when I was a dumb college kid. The message is unchanged because those in power that came before us didn't do what was clear as day. It just didn't become a thing for many olds until this environment developed and started impacting them.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Hopefully the parenting is much better today than it was in 1982. How insane would it be if 43 years passed with no knowledge gained about how to improve on life’s most important task.
dkp993
Footballguy
In some respects I’m sure it most certainly has. In regards to the topic I’m speaking too, I believe it’s regressed.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
How so?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I think the idea is that parents have become increasingly over-protective over the last 50 years or so, resulting in fragile, entitled adults.
*I'm not saying that, that's just my interpretation of the sentiment being presented here by some.
dkp993
Footballguy
Yes basically. Though I don’t love the word “fragile”, would replace it with ill prepared and would add “young” in front of adults. But correct otherwise.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
My parents raised me as they were, especially my dad. I've had to figure out a lot of things on my own. They've left me to fail and figure things out often. Maybe I am the exception, but many of my friends have said they had similar experiences.
I do hear OFTEN the "back in my day" stuff when we are performing a new experiment that gains results in half the time the old ways did. And some have that element of "you really aren't doing it if you don't do it the way I had to" which is absurd. I appreciate that people had to use an are to cut down trees, but that's not required anymore and it isn't my fault that there is a different way to do things. That's what progress looks like.
I do hear OFTEN the "back in my day" stuff when we are performing a new experiment that gains results in half the time the old ways did. And some have that element of "you really aren't doing it if you don't do it the way I had to" which is absurd. I appreciate that people had to use an are to cut down trees, but that's not required anymore and it isn't my fault that there is a different way to do things. That's what progress looks like.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
That's encouraging
Hopefully this new way of doing things will stop the whining about how bad the "yutes" have it so this thread can get back to talking about the U.S. economy
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
That's all on the old people right? I don't think that's stopping any time soon. People like to complain, piss and moan.
Do we REALLY want to talk about the economy though? Seems like more pissing and moaning.
I'd be curious to know what people see as the positives in our economy and what has improved the last 6 weeks.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Why just the last 6 weeks?
fatness
Footballguy
Well that's pretty easy to answer: because we have a new President and new administration, were promised economic changes during and after the election. So of course there's interest in how people feel things are going so far economically, and in actual dry data how things are going so far economically. That's normal.
fatness
Footballguy
Seconded.
Tau837
Footballguy
I get that, but how much could have reasonably changed and be attributed to the new administration at this point?
My business had its best year ever in 2024, and, as a result, I just got a great raise, my highest annual bonus ever, and my highest future incentive bonus ever. My compensation is considerably outpacing inflation, so things are going great for me and my family economically. But that doesn't have anything to do with the current administration or the previous administration IMO.
MAC_32
Footballguy
In things that are also silly- expecting instant economic gratification
Nugget
Footballguy
I think DOGE and tariffs can be attributable to the current administration. Consumer sentiment, corporate guidance, retail spending can be measured in pretty close to real time.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Because it's a subjective question and the largest factors in that subjectiveness have changed a lot in the last 6 weeks.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Along these lines, I would add that while economic data itself may not have changed, the outlook for the economy has changed (and is changing) considerably.
There is currently tremendous uncertainty and caution in the business environment, resulting in slowed and/or delayed capital spending.
One specific example is the wind industry, which has had billions of new projects completely stalled or wiped out due to federal permits and land leases being pulled. It doesn't matter how people feel politically about clean energy, this is a direct and objective economic hit
Wooderson
Fight The Power
It's interesting that the number 1 preferred destination is Canada. Because the opposite is true as well. Large numbers of millennial Canadians want to move to the US. The number 1 reason they want to move to the US is probably higher pay.
Fed up: 2 in 5 Americans say living in U.S. no longer enjoyable
According to a recent survey, 17% of American adults want to move internationally within the next five years, potentially signaling a significant shift in the country's population.studyfinds.org
Interesting numbers to consider. Alarming that so many millennials would consider leaving America.
Also this doesn't seem all that surprising to me. There is always a segment of the population that think the grass is greener on the other side, but few actually do anything about it. I read the article quickly but I didn't see anything about how this number has changed over time. That would be more interesting imo.
I see first hand that people in the medical field are trying to come from Canada to the US. I have not once seen it go the other way.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I think this is a false assertion.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Only taking people at their word. They could be lying to me for sure. I do note that no one has answered the question.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Because it's a silly question whose only purpose is to trigger a certain reaction.
It is common knowledge that the economy is very late in the business cycle and has been weakening for a couple years under the weight of drastic interest rate hikes. Also manifested in extreme stock market valuations priced to perfection.
Those are "the largest factors" in what is going on, and far outweigh anything that has occurred in "the last six weeks" (although does have relevance as stated above)
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
You'll get no argument from me that the objective side of economy is rather clear. That's not what drives any of this anymore. It's all the subjective/anecdotal things that people perceive, so I was asking about that. And I don't think much of what you replied with is "common knowledge" at all unfortunately. Look no further than "Bidenomics" and the like coming out of the peanut gallery.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
ATL Fed now predicting -2.8% GDP in Q1. They were predicting +2.3% as recently as 2/19.
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Sand
Footballguy
We've run out of runway. Interest rates, due to massive influxes of cash after massive influxes of cash, have remained high and have effectively frozen housing. It's awful and predicted to say awful. At least in the past as the housing market goes so goes the economy in general. Not sure we'll crash, but a bout of stagflation is certainly in the realm of possibilities. Or we could crash, that's also something that's possible.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Throw in tariff threats and federal job cuts, which are the primary things that have materially changed in the past few weeks along with related drops in both consumer and corporate (measured by CapEx plans) confidence, and stagflation and/or recession are becoming pretty likely.
Torsten Slock's current forecast is "DOGE and tariffs combined are a mild temporary shock to the economy that will put modest upward pressure on inflation and modest downward pressure on GDP.......The bottom line for markets is that this is a modest stagflation shock to the economy but not a recession."
Sand
Footballguy
This seems a reasonable assessment, though Torsten is whistling past the graveyard on the inflation overhead we already have. Historically that has been more than enough, by itself, to be deleterious to economic output. Nothing is more corrosive than high inflation.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Yeah I really put a lot of stock into his work, but his seems to be almost a best case scenario at this point.
Of course nobody really knows until we're looking in the rear view mirror...and even then people argue and disagree.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
What part of the medical field? Doctors certainly come from all over the world here for training, but I’ve not noticed an influx of Canadians.It's interesting that the number 1 preferred destination is Canada. Because the opposite is true as well. Large numbers of millennial Canadians want to move to the US. The number 1 reason they want to move to the US is probably higher pay.Fed up: 2 in 5 Americans say living in U.S. no longer enjoyable
According to a recent survey, 17% of American adults want to move internationally within the next five years, potentially signaling a significant shift in the country's population.
Interesting numbers to consider. Alarming that so many millennials would consider leaving America.
Also this doesn't seem all that surprising to me. There is always a segment of the population that think the grass is greener on the other side, but few actually do anything about it. I read the article quickly but I didn't see anything about how this number has changed over time. That would be more interesting imo.
I see first hand that people in the medical field are trying to come from Canada to the US. I have not once seen it go the other way.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Inflation about to rise. Hope no one had plans to buy a new car in the near future.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Oh goody!
Nugget
Footballguy
If we just stick to the Canada and Mexico tariffs at 25%, plus the China 10% bump, we are looking at a $3100 average bump in new car cost. Estimate is that the manufacturers would eat up to 30% of the increase. Does not account for other price increases as vehicles less affected would be relatively cheaper. Also doesn't account for additonal actions in April or potential tariffs for Japan and South Korea auto imports.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Oh no! Just got news my turbo is bad. Was planning on getting an EV before *ahem* somebody kills the tax rebates.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
It is a fairly big range of potential increases depending on what models you are looking at and where they are made.
Also depends on reactionary tariffs.
Misleading Headline But Good Info
Also depends on reactionary tariffs.
Misleading Headline But Good Info
Runkle
Footballguy
My girlfriend is in her 20s (hey look at me) and was utterly confused when watching Stranger Things that a bunch of 13-year-olds were allowed to bicycle all over town unsupervised for hours on end. I tried to explain to her that when I was a kid in that time period, it was normal. A kid on a bike was fine to be left completely alone from after-school until sunset, no questions asked. "Mom I'm going out" was all you had to say. She was completely befuddled by the concept.
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