US economy thread (1 Viewer)

[Sand]

Good set of graphs on unemployment. At least right now things look pretty good out there. The best leading indicator of recessions in unemployment and there is nothing to suggest we're there at the moment.

What Recession? Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near Multi-Decade Lows | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[ghostguy123]

Does this factor in extra productivity for casinos, hotels, travel, bars, restaurants, take out...............................

 

[fatness]

U.S. households are running out of emergency funds as pandemic cash runs out, inflation takes its toll

The bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for February found that the average likelihood of Americans being able to come up with $2,000 within a month if an unexpected need arose hit 62.7%. That’s the lowest level since the survey began tracking the data point in October 2015. “Taking into account that the CPI [consumer price index] level today is 35% higher than in 2015, the situation is even worse,” said Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently told an audience at an Economic Club of Chicago event that he has seen some customers that are under budget pressures exhibit stress behaviors. “You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone. You can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month,” he said.

 

[Jayrod]

U.S. households are running out of emergency funds as pandemic cash runs out, inflation takes its toll

The bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for February found that the average likelihood of Americans being able to come up with $2,000 within a month if an unexpected need arose hit 62.7%. That’s the lowest level since the survey began tracking the data point in October 2015. “Taking into account that the CPI [consumer price index] level today is 35% higher than in 2015, the situation is even worse,” said Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently told an audience at an Economic Club of Chicago event that he has seen some customers that are under budget pressures exhibit stress behaviors. “You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone. You can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month,” he said.

Pandemic cash? That's a stretch to assume there is anything significant in today's economy from a relatively small stimulus from 5 years ago.

Even their own graph shows the index back to pre-pandemic levels in 2022-23. Just an odd translation of the data, IMO.

 

[TripItUp]

For those in this thread questioning tariffs and the overall economic policy of this administration, the All-In Podcast just came out with an episode with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary.


It may be beneficial for you to hear the commerce secretary's perspective since most media outlets are not providing that perspective.

 

[the moops]

Pandemic cash? That's a stretch to assume there is anything significant in today's economy from a relatively small stimulus from 5 years ago.

Pretty sure my family got $11,400 in covid cash. Now as fbg's that may be relatively small, for many folks that absolutely may have funded their "ability to come up with 2K for an emergency"

 

[Captain Cranks]

For those in this thread questioning tariffs and the overall economic policy of this administration, the All-In Podcast just came out with an episode with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary.


It may be beneficial for you to hear the commerce secretary's perspective since most media outlets are not providing that perspective.

He's on CNBC a good bit and it's clear they're trying to sell a narrative that suggests we can have our cake and eat it too. For example, tariffs (a tax that US businesses and US consumers pay) is going to bring back manufacturing to the US. Yet when asked how US companies are going to be able to compete since our goods are more expensive, the answer is "robots" and "AI".

Interview

The plan is to jack up the cost of cheap overseas goods (that the US consumer pays) so we bring manufacturing back to the US, except not for manufacturing jobs, but for robots and AI. That's what the blue collar worker in the US wants?

 

[belljr]

Oh so we can post political stuff in here if it's pro but not negative cool

I can't post that the government current direction is driving people away from employment but we can talk about the current spin on how good things will be with tariffs

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The Chicago Fed President views inflation due to tariffs as transitory:

Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Transitory Inflation From One-Time Tariffs

 

[MAC_32]

Assuming they stick as scheduled, what are the dates of the two interest rate cuts in 2025? Looking at both taking a home equity loan and buying a car in the 2nd half of the year, would like to tail the 2nd cut if possible.

 

[djmich]

Oh so we can post political stuff in here if it's pro but not negative cool

I can't post that the government current direction is driving people away from employment but we can talk about the current spin on how good things will be with tariffs

Can't see what link you're referring to. I think if you were to post a link from either a primary source (like from the Fed Chairman) or from a source that is more evidence/fact based vs opinionated...those fly. Politico's views on tariffs or FoxNews summary probably not so much. Or something that is overlaid with you personal opinion that is clearly on a side.

 

[Sand]

Assuming they stick as scheduled, what are the dates of the two interest rate cuts in 2025? Looking at both taking a home equity loan and buying a car in the 2nd half of the year, would like to tail the 2nd cut if possible.

No such thing. And there are no guarantees of any cuts - the trend lately with the dot plots is trending up, not down. I would not be surprised at one or zero cuts.

 

[MAC_32]

Assuming they stick as scheduled, what are the dates of the two interest rate cuts in 2025? Looking at both taking a home equity loan and buying a car in the 2nd half of the year, would like to tail the 2nd cut if possible.

No such thing. And there are no guarantees of any cuts - the trend lately with the dot plots is trending up, not down. I would not be surprised at one or zero cuts.

I get all that, but if they happen, what dates? I know these meetings are set in advance, but am failing using google to id them. I'm borrowing regardless, but if I can trim some outgoing cash, obviously that'd be preferred.

 

[Sand]

Assuming they stick as scheduled, what are the dates of the two interest rate cuts in 2025? Looking at both taking a home equity loan and buying a car in the 2nd half of the year, would like to tail the 2nd cut if possible.

No such thing. And there are no guarantees of any cuts - the trend lately with the dot plots is trending up, not down. I would not be surprised at one or zero cuts.

I get all that, but if they happen, what dates? I know these meetings are set in advance, but am failing using google to id them.

Meeting calendars and information

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[Jayrod]

Pandemic cash? That's a stretch to assume there is anything significant in today's economy from a relatively small stimulus from 5 years ago.

Pretty sure my family got $11,400 in covid cash. Now as fbg's that may be relatively small, for many folks that absolutely may have funded their "ability to come up with 2K for an emergency"

That is a good chunk, but did it last 5 years? For almost everyone, it did not which was my point. They are saying the reason people have less than $2k available is because the stimulus cash ran out and I just thought that happened basically 2-3 years ago so I thought it was odd to include it in the article.

A major selling point of the stimuluses (stimuli?) was the immediate need and indeed a lot of people needed it to stay afloat so it has been used up, by and large, years ago.

 

[MAC_32]

That is a good chunk, but did it last 5 years?

Ours went to assets, so, yes.

 

[Stoneworker]

Assuming they stick as scheduled, what are the dates of the two interest rate cuts in 2025? Looking at both taking a home equity loan and buying a car in the 2nd half of the year, would like to tail the 2nd cut if possible.

No such thing. And there are no guarantees of any cuts - the trend lately with the dot plots is trending up, not down. I would not be surprised at one or zero cuts.

I get all that, but if they happen, what dates? I know these meetings are set in advance, but am failing using google to id them. I'm borrowing regardless, but if I can trim some outgoing cash, obviously that'd be preferred.

As mentioned, there is no single Fed-based projection of timing or amount of interest rate changes. There is only the "dot plot" projections of individual Fed members that most Fed watchers then take the median of.

In my experience the best predictor of Fed Funds rate the CME FedWatch tool. This tool incorporates real-time probabilities of rates over the next two years as viewed by the bond market.

However, this must be monitored constantly since the probabilities are always changing, sometimes drastically, based on new data and economic events (e.g. new CPI prints, etc).

CME Group FedWatch Tool

 

[Jayrod]

That is a good chunk, but did it last 5 years?

Ours went to assets, so, yes.

1. Good for you, but we are talking macroeconomics, not anecdotes.

2. Is it In cash or easily converted? The article was specifically referring to highly liquid emergency funds.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Oh so we can post political stuff in here if it's pro but not negative cool

I can't post that the government current direction is driving people away from employment but we can talk about the current spin on how good things will be with tariffs

Nope.

You can post links to a popular and respected podcast that includes an interview with the US Commerce Secretary.

If we can't allow that, we probably should just shut it down.

 

[belljr]

These tariffs are a thin veil for reporting "revenue" that justifies Trump's tax breaks.

Here is a great podcast on why the tariffs are a huge mistake and actually a cover for the real reason

Why Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Work

Podcast Episode · The Ezra Klein Show · 12/03/2025 · Subscribers Only · 1h 3m

podcasts.apple.com

 

[Desert_Power]

For those in this thread questioning tariffs and the overall economic policy of this administration, the All-In Podcast just came out with an episode with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary.


It may be beneficial for you to hear the commerce secretary's perspective since most media outlets are not providing that perspective.

He's on CNBC a good bit and it's clear they're trying to sell a narrative that suggests we can have our cake and eat it too. For example, tariffs (a tax that US businesses and US consumers pay) is going to bring back manufacturing to the US. Yet when asked how US companies are going to be able to compete since our goods are more expensive, the answer is "robots".

Interview

Yeah, he is speaking to the media all the time. His problem is content but will certainly find a friendly audience including fellow members of the administration there.

 

[Max Power]

A good portion of stimulus money went towards automobile purchases when prices were inflated due to covid supply Issues. The stimulus checks compounded the supply shortage and vehicles were going for 4k more than standard pricing.

Currently almost 25% of trade ins are underwater which is an all-time high. Americans for the most part are very bad with money.

 

[MAC_32]

That is a good chunk, but did it last 5 years?

Ours went to assets, so, yes.

1. Good for you, but we are talking macroeconomics, not anecdotes.

2. Is it In cash or easily converted? The article was specifically referring to highly liquid emergency funds.

You asked him for his anecdotal case I think the average person is fiscally irresponsible, so just reading the headline of that article confirmed my bias and was enough.

Not counting accessible retirement funds I have 0 interest in considering touching, our liquidity has grown ~40% since pre covid. It was a lot higher for a few years, but we finally ripped the bandaid off for some home improvement projects as earnings for parked cash started to tail. We did phase 1 (kitchen) and started phase 2 (exterior / foundation) with all cash, shifting to financing to finish off phase 2 then make a decision about what we want to do about the final phase (basement / bath room(s?)). A part of me just wants to get this over with and borrow the rest once we get quotes, but we'll see how the schedules shake out.

 

[dkp993]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

 

[Jayrod]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

 

[uwillbsoon]

Oh so we can post political stuff in here if it's pro but not negative cool

I can't post that the government current direction is driving people away from employment but we can talk about the current spin on how good things will be with tariffs

Nope.

You can post links to a popular and respected podcast that includes an interview with the US Commerce Secretary.

If we can't allow that, we probably should just shut it down.

I'll give you popular. Respected seems like a stretch.

Just so I'm clear on what's political and what isn't: I can post links to Pod Save America podcast interviews with economists?

 

[the moops]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

But if the metric is "how many people can muster up 2K to pay for an unexpected expense" that is pretty large, no?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For those in this thread questioning tariffs and the overall economic policy of this administration, the All-In Podcast just came out with an episode with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary.


It may be beneficial for you to hear the commerce secretary's perspective since most media outlets are not providing that perspective.

Oof, did this guy just go on national television and tell people to buy Tesla stock? I'm no expert on ethics violations but this seems like a wildly out in the open example of one, nevermind a huge blemish to any perception that he is speaking impartially.

The way he phrased it was even worse than just the notion of someone using their public office to push an individual stock too, as he kept referring to the stock as "Elon Musk's stock" or even just "Elon Musk".

 

[FarFromHome]

You asked him for his anecdotal case I think the average person is fiscally irresponsible, so just reading the headline of that article confirmed my bias and was enough.
I

It's crazy. I know a 40 year old that this past year has pawned his tv for a few weeks to pay bills yet will show me a picture of the 200 dollar boots his wife just got. Or another person that got 2000 dollars back from taxes and decided to finally buy this exhaust for his garaged dream car project. Aren't you the guy who last month had his water turned off? Watching adults with families act like 17 year olds financially is crazy.

 

[The Duff Man]

For those in this thread questioning tariffs and the overall economic policy of this administration, the All-In Podcast just came out with an episode with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary.


It may be beneficial for you to hear the commerce secretary's perspective since most media outlets are not providing that perspective.

Oof, did this guy just go on national television and tell people to buy Tesla stock? I'm no expert on ethics violations but this seems like a wildly out in the open example of one, nevermind a huge blemish to any perception that he is speaking impartially.

The way he phrased it was even worse than just the notion of someone using their public office to push an individual stock too, as he kept referring to the stock as "Elon Musk's stock" or even just "Elon Musk".

Which makes everything he says subject to MAJOR doubt in my mind.

 

[Jayrod]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

But if the metric is "how many people can muster up 2K to pay for an unexpected expense" that is pretty large, no?

Are you ignoring the 5 years later part?

Yes in 2020, that was a good amount. After 5 years do we expect even 25% of Americans to still have that much as a liquid fund? I don't.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Oof, did this guy just go on national television and tell people to buy Tesla stock? I'm no expert on ethics violations but this seems like a wildly out in the open example of one, nevermind a huge blemish to any perception that he is speaking impartially.

The way he phrased it was even worse than just the notion of someone using their public office to push an individual stock too, as he kept referring to the stock as "Elon Musk's stock" or even just "Elon Musk".

Seems people are oblivious to the inherent political bias of this guy because it's...

something that is overlaid with you personal opinion that is clearly on a side.

 

[JAA]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

But if the metric is "how many people can muster up 2K to pay for an unexpected expense" that is pretty large, no?

I think thats a pretty cool metric. I wonder what the % of households could do this?

 

[Joe Bryant]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

But if the metric is "how many people can muster up 2K to pay for an unexpected expense" that is pretty large, no?

I think thats a pretty cool metric. I wonder what the % of households could do this?

That's a good question. And a much more interesting discussion than turning this back into the PSF.

 

[the moops]

I think thats a pretty cool metric. I wonder what the % of households could do this?

The link above did this. It looks like 62.7%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/us-households-are-running-out-of-emergency-funds-as-pandemic-cash-runs-out-inflation-takes-its-toll.html?&qsearchterm=emergency%20funds

 

[massraider]

The plan is to jack up the cost of cheap overseas goods (that the US consumer pays) so we bring manufacturing back to the US, except not for manufacturing jobs, but for robots and AI. That's what the blue collar worker in the US wants?

And there's no infrastructure for ramped up US manufacturing. Not even a plan.

 

[AAABatteries]

The plan is to jack up the cost of cheap overseas goods (that the US consumer pays) so we bring manufacturing back to the US, except not for manufacturing jobs, but for robots and AI. That's what the blue collar worker in the US wants?

And there's no infrastructure for ramped up US manufacturing. Not even a plan.

What about a concept of a plan?

 

[Stoneworker]

The plan is to jack up the cost of cheap overseas goods (that the US consumer pays) so we bring manufacturing back to the US, except not for manufacturing jobs, but for robots and AI. That's what the blue collar worker in the US wants?

And there's no infrastructure for ramped up US manufacturing. Not even a plan.

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need an infrastructure "plan?"

 

[FarFromHome]

The plan is to jack up the cost of cheap overseas goods (that the US consumer pays) so we bring manufacturing back to the US, except not for manufacturing jobs, but for robots and AI. That's what the blue collar worker in the US wants?

And there's no infrastructure for ramped up US manufacturing. Not even a plan.

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need a "plan?"

Good point. I think any "plan" starts with money.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think thats a pretty cool metric. I wonder what the % of households could do this?

The link above did this. It looks like 62.7%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/us-households-are-running-out-of-emergency-funds-as-pandemic-cash-runs-out-inflation-takes-its-toll.html?&qsearchterm=emergency%20funds

Thanks. That's an interesting dynamic. I do think it's interesting how that's changed and why over the years.

 

[The Z Machine]

The Chicago Fed President views inflation due to tariffs as transitory:

Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Transitory Inflation From One-Time Tariffs

Fed and transitory inflation don't have a great rack record right now.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree with @Jayrod's point regarding the stimulus money.

The people that didn't need it threw it into their portfolio and forgot about it. The people that did need it blew through it in months, or less.

It's not like everyone put it into a separate bank account and has been steadily withdrawing $45/mo for the last 4 years and now that the $45/mo is gone they've lost the ability to spend.

The stimulus money was all spent years ago.

 

[fruity pebbles]

The Chicago Fed President views inflation due to tariffs as transitory:

Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Transitory Inflation From One-Time Tariffs

Fed and transitory inflation don't have a great rack record right now.

Yeah, I’d probably avoid using the term transitory if I were them.

 

[dkp993]

from a relatively small stimulus

What small? 5 trillion is small?

That is not how much went to households. Are you including the business stimulus? $814B went to individuals, which is what we are talking about.

But in the grand scheme of things, over 5 years, how far does $2400/person go? I consider it "RELATIVELY" small, yes.

Sure. And I get that, but the savings that went to the businesses didn’t just go all into the pockets of greeting owners. That stimulus money companies got also many times went back to employees in the forms of bonuses and raises or not getting laid off and maintaining their job while business was depressed, etc etc. so in the end, the number was far larger than just the 800 billion.

 

[Sand]

Good article on recession risks. Lance is slightly bearish by nature (definitely not a permabull).

U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests

There are no investing 'awards." Learn about the pitfalls of common but ill-advised investment behaviors and steps to build wealth.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thankfully, egg prices getting back to more normal.

Eggs US - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Eggs US decreased 2.54 USD/DOZEN or 43.79% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This page includes a chart with historical data for Eggs US.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[massraider]

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need an infrastructure "plan?"

If that is the extent of the counterpoint to the fact that this country has no plan to ramp up manufacturing, I feel like you're made my point for me.

 

[djmich]

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need an infrastructure "plan?"

If that is the extent of the counterpoint to the fact that this country has no plan to ramp up manufacturing, I feel like you're made my point for me.

Isn’t this usually where the free market steps in where there is opportunity? I’m sure the admin will support private enterprise similar to what we’ve seen announced recently with other large strategic investments.

I’m not sure I’d want the government to ramp up manufacturing.

The Plan

 

[Stoneworker]

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need an infrastructure "plan?"

If that is the extent of the counterpoint to the fact that this country has no plan to ramp up manufacturing, I feel like you're made my point for me.

There wasn't anything close to an "infrastructure plan" to ramp up domestic solar manufacturing capacity by over 50x from 2017 to 2025

There was only tariffs and a variety of onshore tax incentives. Same as now.

This isn't China. There isn't a 5-year plan for industrial policy.

 

[Stoneworker]

Nvidia recently announced they plan on investing hundreds of billions in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years.

Did the world's 2nd most valuable company need an infrastructure "plan?"

If that is the extent of the counterpoint to the fact that this country has no plan to ramp up manufacturing, I feel like you're made my point for me.

Isn’t this usually where the free market steps in where there is opportunity? I’m sure the admin will support private enterprise similar to what we’ve seen announced recently with other large strategic investments.

I’m not sure I’d want the government to ramp up manufacturing.

Agreed. It's nuts to want the gov't involved in any sort of planning beyond creating incentives