Using ADP during your draft (1 Viewer)

[ppierce]

How do you guys use the latest ADP information during your draft? Seems like whenever i actually draft, you can throw the ADP out the window. For instance, Matt Ryan is currently listed as going in the 6th round. I'm in a 12 team league with some savy owners and there is no way he's lasting that long.

I think that ADP is a nice guide for some of the later sleepers, however, if you truly want the player, its probably best to subtract 2 rounds from the ADP and take your guy there.

Last year i REALLY wanted Stafford. In fact, my whole draft was predicated on taking him in the 5th round. I drafted last in a 10 team league. The team before me picked Vick in the 2nd round so i thought i was safe waiting in the 4th and taking him according to his 5th round ADP. Nope, the Vick owner out smarted me and picked Stafford in the 5th round right before me. His ADP was right but in hindsight since my whole draft was based on getting Stafford, i should of reached.

 

[solorca]

I used to try to draft with ADP in mind, but for the most part, I throw it out the window now. The only time I really use it is when I have a guy much higher on my personal rankings than where he is going on average.

If it's just a couple rounds difference, I don't worry about it.

The only time I find ADP really useful is in the first 2-3 rounds, since that's when most drafts are pretty similar.

 

[Rick James]

I used to try to draft with ADP in mind, but for the most part, I throw it out the window now. The only time I really use it is when I have a guy much higher on my personal rankings than where he is going on average.If it's just a couple rounds difference, I don't worry about it.The only time I find ADP really useful is in the first 2-3 rounds, since that's when most drafts are pretty similar.

I stick by ADP in rounds 1-4, because making a "mistake" that early is a big deal. Taking Donald Brown in round 3 when he'll be there in the 5th-6th or later, for example. But if it's round 5 and you like a guy but his ADP is like 7.2? Whatever, just build your team.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

How do you guys use the latest ADP information during your draft? Seems like whenever i actually draft, you can throw the ADP out the window. For instance, Matt Ryan is currently listed as going in the 6th round. I'm in a 12 team league with some savy owners and there is no way he's lasting that long.I think that ADP is a nice guide for some of the later sleepers, however, if you truly want the player, its probably best to subtract 2 rounds from the ADP and take your guy there. Last year i REALLY wanted Stafford. In fact, my whole draft was predicated on taking him in the 5th round. I drafted last in a 10 team league. The team before me picked Vick in the 2nd round so i thought i was safe waiting in the 4th and taking him according to his 5th round ADP. Nope, the Vick owner out smarted me and picked Stafford in the 5th round right before me. His ADP was right but in hindsight since my whole draft was based on getting Stafford, i should of reached.

Sometimes it only takes one guy, right?I think the more important information to look at is trend data. While footballguys.com does a good job of this to a certain extent if you're a subscriber via their ADP data...Fantasy Football Calculator is the best.Player A is ADP'ed at 7.05Player B is ADP'ed at 7.11Last week, Player A's ADP was 7.05Last week, Player B's ADP was 8.12The information you have allows youto understand that people are going down default draft rankings and pulling that player up. And you also know that the percentage of peoeple doing that is increasing. IMO, you can feel alot more confident about grabbing Player A in Round 7 than you can Player B.

 

[Zackattack]

It's a risky game to play. It did work out for me Ray Rices and Fosters breakout years. Last year It worked in 3/4 leagues with Stafford. You just have to pay close attention to the other teams needs as they are drafting and guess where they may go.

If you reach with too many you didn't get any great value picks. I find letting guys fall can work alot better too. Reach for that one guy a round early.

 

[BigDave]

I still think ADP is very useful during a draft.

I have my list of players in order I feel they should be ranked.

Typically I might have a player ranked higher than his ADP.

When it's close to my turn, I review my needs and the available players.

If my guy is there and I feel I can wait another selection I will. Depends on the difference between where I perceive him to be ranked and everyone else.

For example:Steven Jackson is my #10RB and I have him at #17 on my list

His ADP is 27. If I feel I could grab him in the 3rd I

might chance it and wait. Just depends on #rb's taken,

my draft slot etc...

Still useful on draft day to look at ADP

 

[Concept Coop]

I think ADP is a tool, but nothing more.

During the draft, you should be reacting to what is actually happening, instead of what happens in the average draft.

A tier system accounts for the current draft. If 5 QBs go in the first 15 picks, you can throw the ADP out the window, if it suggests you can get Tony Romo in the 5th round.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

a big part of using adp is where you're slotted in the draft order.

so, if you feel some guy is solidly slotted in the 5th, drafting last in the odds means you might have to make a tough call much earlier in the 4th than you had planned.

hoping he'll be there with your last pick might not work out, whereas, drafting first in the odds means you might be able to safely wait 'til 5.01, although all this depends on how you rate teh particular player.

if there are close substitutes you can be a little braver, but if it's the pick of the century maybe you'd better just jump on it early.

 

[BigDave]

I think ADP is a tool, but nothing more. During the draft, you should be reacting to what is actually happening, instead of what happens in the average draft. A tier system accounts for the current draft. If 5 QBs go in the first 15 picks, you can throw the ADP out the window, if it suggests you can get Tony Romo in the 5th round.

Thats true based on your league rules as well. We award 6 points for QB tds. So QB's have a tendency to go higher than ADP. We also score big points for defense, so they go much higher. As long as you use it effectively based on your league, ADP can help you get a player a round or two later than you would have had to get him.

 

[rifkin]

Don't fall in love with specific players. People may post on here about their hits with specific players but they had just as many misses or more with specific players too. Tier your players and use ADP with your tiers. You may not get that specific player you wanted but you'll get players in your tiers as values if you play it smart.

 

[Zackattack]

Don't fall in love with specific players. People may post on here about their hits with specific players but they had just as many misses or more with specific players too. Tier your players and use ADP with your tiers. You may not get that specific player you wanted but you'll get players in your tiers as values if you play it smart.

If you play in mutliple leagues you can atleast grab that player in one league. You can always target them in a trade later.

 

[tjnc09]

I think ADP is a tool, but nothing more. During the draft, you should be reacting to what is actually happening, instead of what happens in the average draft. A tier system accounts for the current draft. If 5 QBs go in the first 15 picks, you can throw the ADP out the window, if it suggests you can get Tony Romo in the 5th round.

Good post. This is very advantageous in the middle rounds when starting rosters are filling up. If you are drafting 5.08 and really like Peyton Hillis, but picks 9-12 all have their RBS filled, the odds are more likely he will be there at 6.05.Another small outside the box strategy is understand who your leaguemates' favorite teams are. If you want Andrew Luck late and "BIGGESTCOLTSFANEVER" is in your league, you may need to stretch to draft him.

 

[-jb-]

Another thing ADP is good for is understanding its implications on your draft slot, assuming serpentine. IOW, if a guy you are targeting is going in the late 5th and you draft from an early slot, you have a pretty good shot at getting him without significantly overpaying. In contrast, if a guy you're targeting is going in the early 5th, and you really want him, you might need to pay with a 3rd round selection.

So, not necessarily a "during the draft" tool, but it will help you understand where value might lie for your specific slot.

 

[solorca]

Don't fall in love with specific players. People may post on here about their hits with specific players but they had just as many misses or more with specific players too. Tier your players and use ADP with your tiers. You may not get that specific player you wanted but you'll get players in your tiers as values if you play it smart.

This is kind of my point with saying that you should ignore the ADP, other than using it as a base guide. For instance, I have Jacquizz Rodgers in a tier with players that are typically going 3-4 rounds ahead of him (at least prior to his recent ADP increase). If he's the last player I have in that tier, and all of the players from the next tier are gone as well, I'm willing to take him 3 rounds ahead of his ADP because I believe that's where he belongs.It isn't really the case of "falling in love" with the player, but it is a case of valuing a player at a higher level than where he is typically going. It's worth jumping a little earlier to get the guy you want, especially when the options available at the time aren't nearly as enticing to you.With all of that said, I would also be willing to draft another position, even if I needed to fill a hole at RB, hoping Rodgers (or anyone else in that situation) makes it back to me. Over the years though, my best teams have always been the ones where I take the players I like the best, and only use ADP as a general gauge of where they typically go. My worst teams have always been when I play the waiting game, thinking I can grab a guy a round or two later because of his ADP.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

ADP is a good baseline to help prep but I find the two most important things are the draft history of the league (if you have it) and what the default rankings for the league are.

 

[Lascelle]

ADP is a good baseline to help prep but I find the two most important things are the draft history of the league (if you have it) and what the default rankings for the league are.

I typically build out a PivotTable offsetting the following prior to draft day:- default rankings for the site I'm drafting on (Yahoo, ESPN, FOX, etc.)- ADP- consensus expert rankings (highlighting variances between these and the site defaults - Yahoo! still has Julio Jones as WR12 even though consensus has him courting WR3)- actual player performance from the past 2 years based on league settings - imperative for return yardage leagues where both the default & expert rankings will severely undervalue Sproles and Harvin- last year's draft tendencies (how many QBs went in Round 1, when do backups start getting drafted for QBs that aren't Vick, etc.)And then adjust dynamically on the fly based on the flow of the draft. Going into a draft too attached to any player is a recipe for failure but if you tier your favorites and then map out alternate drafting scenarios based on the unexpected happening you can usually cover yourself for any adversity on draft day.This is especially imperative for deep leagues. If I'm on either side of the snake, I'll key in on the drafting tendencies of the people towards the tail but otherwise it's a bit of a crapshoot. ADP reliance will go out the window any time you've got 20-30 picks on either side of your selections. In that situation, I just try to start positional runs and have a couple deep sleepers at each position that the default site rankings are completely missing the boat on to act as parachutes towards the end. Kevin Smith is a good example of one of those for Yahoo! right now.