Value Model for Rookie Draft Pick Trades of Player for Pick (1 Viewer)

[ribs-n-whiskey]

Of course I can find multiple examples of "trade value" charts and other ways to value trades of rookie draft picks for additional picks. Is anyone aware of a similar way to value a player trade for picks. For example, an owner offers Victor Cruz for 2 draft picks. Other than touchy feely, is there any way to compare value of the top 15 WR vs the 2nd and 3rd round picks?

I figure if anyone has it figured out it is here. Had heard Go Deep had something similar but I have had zero luck finding it.

Thanks!

ribs

 

[Biabreakable]

Well ZWK touched on this question in this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681100

In post 3 he calculates the expected VBD numbers for the rookies based on draft and player position historically.

As I mentioned in the thread I think that this should perhaps be normalized for the WR and TE positions, but not the QB and RB positions. Even so this is a very poor draft class for skill positions from a FF perspective. The normalization would be due to the higher than average number of defensive players and linemen drafted in 2013 compared to historical draft classes.

Another way to look at it would be by success rate of a player being a starter from their draft position historically.

Either way I think you will want to have projections to compare the rookie prospects to the veteran players before you can find a good answer to their comparative value.