Value of draft picks in dynasty? (1 Viewer)

[King of the Wolfies]

I'm in my first dynasty league (12 team) as the only guppy. I see on these boards all the time people bragging about all the picks they have upcoming so I figured they must have value. I had a long conversations yesterday with the commish and I really dont see the value for me of tying up decent $ for a rookie (I'd make a horrid NFL GM). So late last night I couldnt sleep so sat at the compter to read some articles and there's an owner that is 0-3 whose only good players are Gore and Wayne and his 2 kickers. So I figure what the heck, lets see if others value draft picks. I send out the following trade: Branch, Chicago, Betts, 2008 1st, and 2008 2nd for Wayne, Reed, and Miami. To my total surprise, not only does he accept it, but sends me an email thanking me for the best offer he'd gotten and that it was totally fair. I look a few hours later I expected to be harrassed by my buddy for the trade but he was in total uproar over how I raped the other owner to the point that that team may never recover. If only looking at the players involved, yes, I screwed him, but the whole purpose of the draft picks was to balance it. Just how valuable are draft picks? (I dont watch enough college football to ever be good at predicting rookie talent so I'm always going to trade my picks)

Thanks.

 

[stevegamer]

I'm in my first dynasty league (12 team) as the only guppy. I see on these boards all the time people bragging about all the picks they have upcoming so I figured they must have value. I had a long conversations yesterday with the commish and I really dont see the value for me of tying up decent $$ for a rookie (I'd make a horrid NFL GM). So late last night I couldnt sleep so sat at the compter to read some articles and there's an owner that is 0-3 whose only good players are Gore and Wayne and his 2 kickers. So I figure what the heck, lets see if others value draft picks. I send out the following trade: Branch, Chicago, Betts, 2008 1st, and 2008 2nd for Wayne, Reed, and Miami. To my total surprise, not only does he accept it, but sends me an email thanking me for the best offer he'd gotten and that it was totally fair. I look a few hours later I expected to be harrassed by my buddy for the trade but he was in total uproar over how I raped the other owner to the point that that team may never recover. If only looking at the players involved, yes, I screwed him, but the whole purpose of the draft picks was to balance it. Just how valuable are draft picks? (I dont watch enough college football to ever be good at predicting rookie talent so I'm always going to trade my picks)Thanks.

Actually, you didn't screw him. You're buddy's either nuts, or trying to make sure you don't know what's going on. Deal looks fine to me - in fact I think I'd take the side you gave up if I were 0-3.Wayne is the best player in the deal, but that's all you got. Reed is a kicker, which has essentailly zero dynasty value, and the defenses basically will wash longer-term.So it's Branch, Betts, a 1st, and a 2nd for Wayne. I'd take that if I was 0-3.Apparently this is a salary league, which could change things, but it's pretty even.Picks in a dynasty league fluctuate in value through the ebb & flow of the season & offseason..

 

[numberSE7EN]

Hard to say before you know what picks the 1st and 2nd rounders will turn out to be, and how many impact rookies there will be in the 2008 draft. This year Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch are allready preforming at a high level, but other high rookie picks have yet to play a snap Quinn/Russel. I think when you are talking about trades that involve rookie picks it is hard to judge a winner until those rookies that end up getting drafted by the two picks in question start producing/not producing.

Personally I think the value of a top 5 rookie pick is exponitionaly higher than round two and three and so on when you know what NFL team the rookie has been drafted onto. IE Marshawn Lynch not having much competition = good production from a rookie even though he was not drafted after Ted Jinn Jr. plus RBs tend to produce earlier than WR anyway.

 

[phthalatemagic]

You got a great deal, as far as I know (about the league)

 

[King of the Wolfies]

For those wondering, salary and years are as follows:

Branch $8/4, Betts $8/2, CHI $7/3

Wayne $23/3, MIA $1/2, Reed $1/2

 

[fsufan]

i play in 4 dynasty leagues and trade away my 1st round pick ever year. 2 of the leagues allow trading picks up to 3 years. I do not have a first round pick in either of these 2 leagues in 08 or 09. I think owners over value rookie picks in dynasty leagues.

this year i have traded my 1st round picks(along with other players) to get players like James, Brady, Harrison, R. Brown.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

For some discussion you may want to search on dynasty threads and picks, but as an aside you may want to look at my signature regarding how to calculate some relative value of draft picks in Dynasty vs. a redraft league.

There's an article from last year as well to explain things.

Basics - value drops fast after the first few picks.

Welcome to Dynasty.

 

[MiniBears]

Anywhere from the top 3-5 picks will be worth something, and don't spend too much time looking into Kiper's Big Board until all underclassmen declare for the draft. If your team is competitive and the 1st rounder is low, than you didn't really give up all that much; if your team struggles and you end up with the #1 overall in 2008, you may be kicking yourself. The best part of trading picks for players is that you are generally trading an unknown with potential for a known quantity. If you trade your #1 pick for a good player and that draft pick turns into Ryan Leaf you're sitting pretty; if that #1 pick turns into LT you're probably kicking yourself.

I'd say as a general rule teams that expect to be competitive trade picks for players and teams that expect to struggle stockpile picks in the hopes that the next LT (read: Darren McFadden) awaits them in the following year.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I'd say as a general rule teams that expect to be competitive trade picks for players and teams that expect to struggle stockpile picks in the hopes that the next LT (read: Darren McFadden) awaits them in the following year.

this is my thinking too. i dont ever expect to be the worst team, so since I know very little about colege football, I dont have confidence in my ability to pick that diamond in the ruff. What I expect to happen is that alot of first round picks will be passed as no value will be had at that slot and that maybe the 2nd round picks will be valuable for sleeper picks.Sounds like for a guppy, I did ok

 

[greyone]

Congrats on your 1st dynasty league. I love my one and only dynasty league. Having a year round fantasy team is the best. Also play in keeper and redraft leagues.

Your trade was fine. But don't go crazy trading draft picks. I too under valued them. And am paying for it now. My current team is in above average shape. In a couple years my team will be old with few young prospects, especially at RB.

If anyone was raped its you. Especially if your team forecast is in the bottom 3rd. But you came out ok .

-Betts...may be the main guy. If Portis bounces at the end of the season. Betts automatically is a single back in a run-first offense. He is also only second to Burner Turner as Blue-Chip backup rbs(with RB1 starter potential)

-Branch...is a servicable wr in a pass happy offense. Where he is supposedly wr1abc.

-Chi DST...still hits 10+ point every week. Probably the most consistent and expolsove D on the market. Downgrading to Miami dst

-you lose depth at RB(Roster size is a key to dynasty strategy. Which you didn't supply.)

-1st & 2nd round picks...Value in draft picks differ from owner to owner. I'll explain in a second.

Draft picks are lottery tickets. Especially in deep drafts. 07 draft was weak with ADP-Lynch-Calvin). 06 was loaded with Reggie Bush-VY-MJD-Lendale-Norwood-Sant Holmes-Vernon Davis-Joseph Addai-Maroney-Leinart-Dang Williams! We are only one year removed from that draft. Imagine that. 6-7 starters from that draft, could be more by years end.

Rook Drafts info:

-allows your to remain younger.

-allows you to use roster space as an incubator. Picks 1-3 are gold. Usually a drop off here at 4-5. Top 5 is where you want to be. 6-12 are still very respectable.

-2nd rounders are much more of a crap shoot.

-draft picks are free passes to developing your team at a discounted price. Check out ADP, Marshawn Lynch, and Calvin Johnsons value.

Recent picks in my league.

-MJD went very late in a recent draft. We all know what he did last season.

-Norwood is on his way to owner Atlanta. Late 1st rounder.

-VY was supposedly a terrible prospect coming into 06. His ADP was probably 8-12 in '06. Vernon davis and Leinart were chosen ahead of him in many drafts with ADPs at 6-8

Just a few examples.

Good luck you have a ton of work ahead of you.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

My team is in my sig so I basically gave up only backup players. Branch would be my wr4 and I loved him for $8 ($200 cap league), but having AJ/Wayne/TJ as my starting wr is too good to pass up.

My theory is to trade a stud in the last year of his cap for a much younger stud to be, and if necessary use the draft picks to sweeten the deals. I just not sure enough of my ability to rank rooks until i see them actually play. Seems like most people greatly value picks so there's an opportunity there for me.