Value Of Malcolm Floyd.... (1 Viewer)

[smoker]

OK, Im not sure about the VJAX situation.

From what I understanf, he is suspended the 1st 4 games, and he is unsigned at the moment. Assuming Gates is the #1 option for the time being, there will have to be someone else to catch Rivers passes. MAlcolm slips in to the #1 WR role, how much value?

Is he a #2 WR while VJAX is out?

Does he move to a barely startable guy if Vjax comes back?

Is he a #1 WR while Vjax is out?

Thoughts

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

I don't feel at all confident about projecting anything in the SD offense right now. And it's not even that I'm particularly worried they won't produce...it's just that I don't think anyone has any real idea what the distribution is going to look like.

I think Antonio Gates right now is probably the safest bet at the TE position I've ever seen in my life, because it's REALLY hard to imagine his workload DROPPING just now.

And I think Rivers is good enough that even if VJax is gone all year, Floyd + Naanee + Gates + The RB's will probably end up putting together stats comparable to the SD passing game last year, with no more than a smidgen of a drop. Since I don't see a lot of evidence how it's going to be distributed, I'm for grabbing ANY of these guys at spots where they represent value. In my drafts, at least, that has meant a lot of Naanee at the very end. I'm seeing some 7th-8th round nabbings of Floyd, but very little confidence in Naanee. Since I believe each guy is about equally likely to be the 75/1000 guy in this equation, that's where I see value.

 

[Sylira21]

I don't feel at all confident about projecting anything in the SD offense right now. And it's not even that I'm particularly worried they won't produce...it's just that I don't think anyone has any real idea what the distribution is going to look like.I think Antonio Gates right now is probably the safest bet at the TE position I've ever seen in my life, because it's REALLY hard to imagine his workload DROPPING just now.And I think Rivers is good enough that even if VJax is gone all year, Floyd + Naanee + Gates + The RB's will probably end up putting together stats comparable to the SD passing game last year, with no more than a smidgen of a drop. Since I don't see a lot of evidence how it's going to be distributed, I'm for grabbing ANY of these guys at spots where they represent value. In my drafts, at least, that has meant a lot of Naanee at the very end. I'm seeing some 7th-8th round nabbings of Floyd, but very little confidence in Naanee. Since I believe each guy is about equally likely to be the 75/1000 guy in this equation, that's where I see value.

Excellent analysis. Thinking the same thoughts myself.I also see Rivers slipping in drafts, but not sure how far that will go. He could represent value at some point.

 

[smoker]

How optimistic is it looking that VJAX will be a Charger this year?

Malcolm is the #1 WR on SD for now right?

 

[smoker]

wait

I just read VJAX has a 3 game suspension if he signs, and a 3 game DUI suspension

So even if he signs today, he will sit 6 games?

 

[JbizzleMan]

waitI just read VJAX has a 3 game suspension if he signs, and a 3 game DUI suspensionSo even if he signs today, he will sit 6 games?

It's only 6 games if he doesn't sign by September 4th. Which is why some are speculating that he could be traded at any time now.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Malcolm is the #1 WR on SD for now right?

He's a starter. #1 is open to interpretation.

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

I just traded him for a 2011 2nd rounder and I was happy with that.

 

[smoker]

Malcom Floyd Projections for this year

69 catches

950 yards

8 TD's

Would you bet over or under?

 

[Insein]

Malcom Floyd Projections for this year69 catches950 yards8 TD'sWould you bet over or under?

I'd be happy with that. Took him in the 9th as my WR3. I'd be happy with those numbers from that spot. Anything more would be a bonus.

 

[treat88]

Malcom Floyd Projections for this year69 catches950 yards8 TD'sWould you bet over or under?

Under.Floyd's a talented player, but I don't think he holds up for 16 games.

 

[Fat Nick]

To be honest, I think the risk/reward just doesn't look great for him. I was very high on him initially, but that's waivered a lot. There are just so many questions around him. Will VJax come back? Will Nanee emerge as the real pick here? Can Floyd handle #1 CB's? Can Floyd stay healthy? Etc.

I drafted him late (9-10th?) for a WR3, and just recently traded him and Moreno for Portis and Boldin. I was trying to de-risk my roster.

I think that 69-950-8 is a fair predicition, but I think that prediction has a much higher standard deviation and you could end up with 45-750-3 just as easily as I could even imagine 80-1100-10. Not saying I think either is going to be the case, but they're both possible. There's just so many unknowns.

Have room for risk? Buy.

Risk averse? Sell.

 

[Two Deep]

I'll take a 6'-5" WR, with a 39 inch jump, long limbs and excellent hands. If he stays healthy and doesn't catch 75-1000 and minimum 8 tds somebody screwed up. My god just loft it up high and he either comes down with it or is interfered with.

 

[biggamer3]

grabbed him in all leagues as a WR3 when guys like Hester, Holmes, TO were going

 

[stlrams]

Guys - Rivers will throw 30 tds this year. Look at their schedule especially the first 6gms. Lets give 9 TD's to Gates and 4-5 tds to RBs (Sproles and Mathews). Where are the the other 17 tds going???? I have Floyd for 9 td's....

 

[jurrassic]

I don't feel at all confident about projecting anything in the SD offense right now. And it's not even that I'm particularly worried they won't produce...it's just that I don't think anyone has any real idea what the distribution is going to look like.I think Antonio Gates right now is probably the safest bet at the TE position I've ever seen in my life, because it's REALLY hard to imagine his workload DROPPING just now.And I think Rivers is good enough that even if VJax is gone all year, Floyd + Naanee + Gates + The RB's will probably end up putting together stats comparable to the SD passing game last year, with no more than a smidgen of a drop. Since I don't see a lot of evidence how it's going to be distributed, I'm for grabbing ANY of these guys at spots where they represent value. In my drafts, at least, that has meant a lot of Naanee at the very end. I'm seeing some 7th-8th round nabbings of Floyd, but very little confidence in Naanee. Since I believe each guy is about equally likely to be the 75/1000 guy in this equation, that's where I see value.

I agree with Gates all the way. I think he will put up close to low #1 wr numbers. I could see 1200-1150 yards and 12 td's. As far as Floyd, the guy had 776 yards receiving on 45 receptions last year. Different situation now, but I don't see those numbers going down. I do see an increase over the 1 td. The guy, along with Gates, is an excellent red zone target. I like the projections for 950 and 8 with a potential of 1100 (if he keeps his average reception at 15 yards and gets 75 receptions).

 

[Touchdown There]

Guys - Rivers will throw 30 tds this year. Look at their schedule especially the first 6gms. Lets give 9 TD's to Gates and 4-5 tds to RBs (Sproles and Mathews). Where are the the other 17 tds going???? I have Floyd for 9 td's....

This is the best analysis by far. Just because Floyd and Naanee are not household names does not mean they will not be at the end of the year. This is a very productive offense and both of these two wide receivers are very, very good.Also, too many people assume that Gates will pick up the slack. Even if he gets an extra 100-200 yards this year, there are TONS of yards and TDs to go around.

 

[smoker]

Guys - Rivers will throw 30 tds this year. Look at their schedule especially the first 6gms. Lets give 9 TD's to Gates and 4-5 tds to RBs (Sproles and Mathews). Where are the the other 17 tds going???? I have Floyd for 9 td's....

Sounds like someone has Rivers

 

[Beerguzzler]

I wouldn't lump Floyd as a top 10 WR due to Gates' red zone presence, but he is going to end up as a top 20 WR this season as long as Vincent Jackson doesn't come back, which at this point is likely unless he's offered a new contract by the Chargers. He's repeatedly said he won't play for the amount being offered just to risk injury and his future.

Floyd will be the guy getting the majority of the WR targets on the offense just based on Rivers tendancies. He'll get 12-15 targets a game probably and if a play isn't called for Gates in the end zone it's going to be thrown up to Floyd. The only downside to Floyd is his durability. He had some early injury issues in his career, let's hope he is finally over that hump and can play a full 16 games this season.

1100yards with 10TD's really isn't that far fetched in this offense.

Clayton was the best pickup for Floyd. It's going to force teams to pay attn to the slot and open up the outside for Floyd, that was my main concern if we had to rely on Buster Davis as the 3rd WR on the field in 4 Wide sets which they use ALOT.

 

[KCC]

I wouldn't lump Floyd as a top 10 WR due to Gates' red zone presence, but he is going to end up as a top 20 WR this season as long as Vincent Jackson doesn't come back, which at this point is likely unless he's offered a new contract by the Chargers. He's repeatedly said he won't play for the amount being offered just to risk injury and his future. Floyd will be the guy getting the majority of the WR targets on the offense just based on Rivers tendancies. He'll get 12-15 targets a game probably and if a play isn't called for Gates in the end zone it's going to be thrown up to Floyd. The only downside to Floyd is his durability. He had some early injury issues in his career, let's hope he is finally over that hump and can play a full 16 games this season. 1100yards with 10TD's really isn't that far fetched in this offense.Clayton was the best pickup for Floyd. It's going to force teams to pay attn to the slot and open up the outside for Floyd, that was my main concern if we had to rely on Buster Davis as the 3rd WR on the field in 4 Wide sets which they use ALOT.

With his current ADP and his upside, it's no exaggeration to say that Floyd could easily be the most valuable player in most fantasy drafts this season.

 

[dwyadog]

Isnt 1100/10 pretty much the same as vjax put up in that offense last year from a fantasy points perspective? Theres zero drop going from vjax to floyd? A poster upthread said rivers would throw for 30 td's. Last year he had 29 with only 8 going to gates. I really see 10-11 going to gates this year. The running backs had 7 total receiving, that seems about right again but naanee only had 2 and floyd 1. Isnt it possible that naanne sees 4-6 touchdowns this year? And perhaps a few to the wr3? I think its really possible rivers throws for 35td's but barring that, and not knowng how mathews might be use in the red zone, i think its possible floyd could put up 1000/6. Is that way out of line?

 

[LOCO]

give me floyd over knox.

 

[jurrassic]

Isnt 1100/10 pretty much the same as vjax put up in that offense last year from a fantasy points perspective? Theres zero drop going from vjax to floyd? A poster upthread said rivers would throw for 30 td's. Last year he had 29 with only 8 going to gates. I really see 10-11 going to gates this year. The running backs had 7 total receiving, that seems about right again but naanee only had 2 and floyd 1. Isnt it possible that naanne sees 4-6 touchdowns this year? And perhaps a few to the wr3? I think its really possible rivers throws for 35td's but barring that, and not knowng how mathews might be use in the red zone, i think its possible floyd could put up 1000/6. Is that way out of line?

I think 1000/6 or 900/8 is completely possible.

 

[KCC]

Isnt 1100/10 pretty much the same as vjax put up in that offense last year from a fantasy points perspective? Theres zero drop going from vjax to floyd? A poster upthread said rivers would throw for 30 td's. Last year he had 29 with only 8 going to gates. I really see 10-11 going to gates this year. The running backs had 7 total receiving, that seems about right again but naanee only had 2 and floyd 1. Isnt it possible that naanne sees 4-6 touchdowns this year? And perhaps a few to the wr3? I think its really possible rivers throws for 35td's but barring that, and not knowng how mathews might be use in the red zone, i think its possible floyd could put up 1000/6. Is that way out of line?

Any of the numerous stats you have posted for Rivers and Floyd are possible, but when is the last time you could get a WR that late in a fantasy draft with that much potential upside?

 

[Beerguzzler]

Here's a post that's fairly accurate with what I've seen of Floyd throughout the years in training camp and I fully expect to happen this year if he's healthy. I'm referring to Jammer's quote about Floyd and going after it in the endzone. Like I said, 10 TD's is very much doable if he's getting the targets which he will.

Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego: With Vincent Jackson on the shelf, the Bolts look to Door No. 2 for their next best receiver, and you're looking at him. Floyd is big (he's 6-5), with soft hands and a knack for the ball. Once upon a time he was overshadowed by Jackson, but not anymore. "As far as a big guy who goes up and gets the ball," said teammate Quentin Jammer, "I don't think there's anybody other than Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald who can do what he does, which is adjust to the football." I don't know, but I might throw Calvin Johnson in that roll call, too, but you get the idea. Floyd is better than most people know. "I know I have ability," he said. "I've been getting opportunities year after year, and this is just another year where I can get more playing time and more looks my way."

 

[SoopaCee]

i took him as my #3 wr aswell

the spot i took him, he was the safest pick

i agree with him over knox......i like knox this year, but the bears dont have a clear cut #1 and that whole Off. is bound to fail

Floyd is a Vjax clone......i honestly think he can put up vjax numbers

 

[War Eagle]

Look, the playbook is NOT going to change because one player is no longer on the field. The personnel will shift and the same plays will be called. So the key here is the targets. Floyd will now get the increase in targets.

2009 Targets/receptions

VJ 107/68

Floyd 76/45

Gates 114/79

Naanee 29/24

Couple of misc stats:

BOTH (VJ & Floyd) averaged 17.2 yards/catch

Floyd only started 9 games last year

As you can see, from the play calling, the top 3 targets last year for the SD Chargers were Gates 114, VJ 107, then Floyd 76, Naanee 29. Now remove VJ and shift everyone else up a slot.

So playing in the SD offense as the #1 WR, should yield Floyd a solid 100 targets. That's at least 60 receptions @ 17.2 each = 1032 yards.

My conservative projections are 1032 yards and 6-8 TDs. REDICULOUS VALUE for his ADP!!!!

You've got to keep in mind too that SD, a team that went 13-3 in 2009, may know a little something about the skill level of Floyd.

Let's evaluate some of SD's recent personnel decisions:

They traded ATL Michael Vick and got LT and Brees. = winner

Let Brees go in favor of Rivers = you can argue this either way, but Rivers has led them to double digit wins in 3 of 4 seasons since being the starter....14, 11, 8 (start of LT decline), 13

Let LT go in favor of Matthews = yet to be seen, but LT is on the wrong side of 30 either way

and now essentially letting VJ go in favor Floyd

IF VJ sits out the whole year, Floyd WILL yield 2WR value and rack up over 60 catches for 1000 yards and 6 TDs.

 

[Hartliner]

Lets say Malcolm Floyd takes off right where V-Jax left off. Would you wager for or against on trading him? Do you see him as a sell high candidate or the real deal? I'm just wondering since we are perceiving this guy kinda high. Would you trade him for a guy that is proven to be a little more reliable but with less upside ?

 

[KCC]

Lets say Malcolm Floyd takes off right where V-Jax left off. Would you wager for or against on trading him? Do you see him as a sell high candidate or the real deal? I'm just wondering since we are perceiving this guy kinda high. Would you trade him for a guy that is proven to be a little more reliable but with less upside ?

I don't think most have an unusually high perception of him. That's exactly what makes him such a valuable pick: potential high fantasy-points return for a relatively low draft pick investment. Last year, San Diego had the fifth ranked passing offense in the NFL. Based on the latest ADP figures (listed below - 12-team format), you can have the #1 WR on that team for the average cost of the 24th WR pick in the draft. That is tremendous value:

Pos

Rank Pick Name Pos Team Overall Std.

Dev High Low Times

Drafted Graph

1 1.06 Andre Johnson WR HOU 5.7 1.4 1.02 2.01 567

2 1.09 Randy Moss WR NE 9.0 1.8 1.04 2.03 649

3 1.12 Reggie Wayne WR IND 12.2 2.4 1.06 2.07 517

4 2.01 Calvin Johnson WR DET 13.3 2.7 1.07 2.11 585

5 2.03 Miles Austin WR DAL 14.9 2.7 1.07 2.11 568

6 2.04 Roddy White WR ATL 16.4 2.9 1.10 3.06 583

7 2.07 Brandon Marshall WR MIA 18.8 3.2 1.10 3.06 568

8 2.08 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 20.0 3.6 1.10 3.08 603

9 2.09 Greg Jennings WR GB 20.9 3.3 2.01 3.08 628

10 3.01 DeSean Jackson WR PHI 24.6 3.9 2.02 3.12 541

11 3.03 Marques Colston WR NO 26.6 3.7 2.04 4.04 693

12 3.06 Wes Welker WR NE 30.0 5.0 2.05 4.10 379

13 3.07 Anquan Boldin WR BAL 31.2 4.7 2.07 5.01 702

14 3.12 Steve Smith WR NYG 35.7 5.8 2.08 5.07 465

15 4.01 Steve Smith WR CAR 37.3 5.6 2.11 5.07 580

16 4.06 Michael Crabtree WR SF 41.9 5.5 3.03 5.11 446

17 4.10 Chad Ocho Cinco WR CIN 45.6 6.6 3.04 6.06 538

18 4.12 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 47.8 6.4 3.07 6.09 635

19 5.06 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG 54.1 7.5 3.10 7.05 653

20 5.08 Pierre Garcon WR IND 56.4 7.6 3.12 7.05 696

21 5.08 Mike Walker WR JAC 56.5 7.6 3.12 7.11 574

22 5.11 Percy Harvin WR MIN 59.2 7.8 4.02 7.11 632

23 5.11 Hines Ward WR PIT 59.2 7.8 4.02 7.10 462

24 6.02 Malcom Floyd WR SD 61.5 7.5 4.05 7.12 775

 

[Beerguzzler]

Man that list....BOTH NYG WR's before Floyd is just dumb. Boldin, Garcon, Walker, Harvin, and Ward all will end up below Floyd in production. I also think Floyd is a safer pick then Bowe, but Bowe has a higher upside. Essentially Floyd IMO will be sitting around WR 15 when all is said and done with some potential to be higher based on TD production.