gianmarco
Footballguy
Value of the fumble
We handed this Quick Reads intro off to Adrian Peterson, but then he dropped it.
Maybe you saw that one coming. After the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings played a game that was more reminiscent of Pop Warner football on Sunday night, though, fumbles are on our mind.
Measuring the impact of turnovers on an offense can be an inexact science. While fans rue a turnover in the moment, all we see at the end of a season in a player's stat line is an integer. We know Pierre Thomas fumbled two times in the regular season, but there's no context for where the fumbles occurred on the field or how important they were. Most statistical lines also include only fumbles lost, which is nonsense; Football Outsiders' research has shown that fumble recoveries are a wholly random event and that no player or team consistently recovers more than 50 percent of the fumbles it puts on the ground year after year. (For anecdotal evidence of how fumble recoveries aren't skillful plays, watch some of the Keystone Kops work from the Superdome.)
Just as we give players credit for touchdowns, they also deserve criticism for turning the ball over. Applying the old adage of "a penny saved is a penny earned" to football, the points you lose by turning the ball over are just as valuable as the ones you gain by scoring.
We can do that in a pretty simple manner by evaluating the yard line at which a fumble takes place and then noting the point expectation for both the offense and the defense from that yard line. For example, say a team has a ball on the "70th" yard line, its opposition's 30-yard line, 70 yards away from its own end zone. On average, a team with the ball at this point will score 2.83 points per possession, so losing the ball 30 yards away from the end zone will cost that team 2.83 points.
Furthermore, the defense now gets the ball on its own 30-yard line, 70 yards away from the opposing end zone. A team at that 30-yard line will score an average of 0.4 points on that subsequent possession. Adding those two figures up, a fumble by a running back on the 30-yard line costs his team a total of 3.23 expected points. At Football Outsiders, we adjust these figures for the down and distance, as well as the game situation, but we'll keep things quick and simple for the purposes of this article.
If we include fumbles both kept and lost, and blame Brett Favre for the fumble on the botched handoff as opposed to Peterson, the Vikings' star back fumbled nine times this season. Using the methodology above, those fumbles cost his team a whopping 28.9 points. That's the most of any running back in football this season, ahead of Steve Slaton (22.7 points), Matt Forte (22.6 points), Beanie Wells (20.5 points) and Tim Hightower (19.1 points).
That's one of the reasons why Peterson's DVOA consistently ranks far lower than his reputation and why he's not the best running back in football. He might be the most talented back in the league, and our advanced stats still don't consider the number of defenders in the box against him. But his inability to hold on to the football costs the Vikings pretty significantly over the course of a season. Usually, they're able to overcome Peterson's fumble issues; on Sunday, the botched handoff from Favre to Peterson might very well have cost them their season.
Here are our ratings for the best and worst players of the conference championships. Click here to learn more about what DVOA and DYAR numbers mean and how they are computed.
Quarterbacks
Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total
DYAR Pass
DYAR Rush
DYAR
1. Peyton Manning IND 26/39 373 3 0 305 317 -11
Manning finishes with the fourth-highest single-game total of the season after picking apart the league's best pass defense. He got off to a slow start, taking two sacks on back-to-back passes after taking all of three sacks against Rex Ryan-authored defenses in five years, but Manning got into a rhythm in the second half. Consistently picking on weak links Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery, Manning sailed right by Revis Island and completed 16 of his 21 attempts in the second half, gaining 155 yards while throwing for nine first downs and two touchdowns. That half accounted for 178 of his 317 passing DYAR on the day.
2. Mark Sanchez NYJ 17/29 257 2 1 97 99 -3
Sanchez didn't exactly lead the Jets to the playoffs -- the closest metaphor we could come up with was the cute girl in your study group who doesn't contribute anything at your meetings, but still earns the "A" for your work anyway -- but he sure was good when they got there. He finishes the postseason with a 40.9 percent DVOA, after a regular season where he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. While he threw a meaningless late interception, he also made big-time throws on his touchdown passes to Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller. (Give credit to the "NFL Matchup" guys, who noted that the Jets went for big plays on the third series of games; the 80-yard touchdown pass to Edwards was the first play of the third series.)
3. Brett Favre MIN 28/46 310 1 2 86 103 -17
Favre is credited with the fumble inside the Saints' 5-yard line, which cost his team an estimated 3.67 points. His second interception was obviously egregious; while the Vikings needed to move the ball forward after their 12-men-in-the-huddle penalty (after which Favre tried to call a timeout, which would have been consecutive timeouts by the offense), even a slim chance at a 56-yard field goal is better than a dangerous pass over the middle. Those mistakes spoiled an otherwise great game by Favre, who abused Randall Gay and Tracy Porter while staying away from the dangerous Jabari Greer. He was very effective on third down, going 7-of-12 for 115 yards, yielding six first downs and a touchdown pass to Sidney Rice.
4. Drew Brees NO 17/31 197 3 0 39 53 -14
Brees is given minus-14 DYAR for the aborted snap on third-and-1 from his own 14-yard line; being stuffed in that situation isn't particularly bad, especially against the Vikings' defense, but nearly turning the ball over is disastrous. He was the master of coming up just short on third down, completing two different passes for 9 yards on third-and-10, and picking up 16 yards on third-and-18. On first down, he was awful, as 13 dropbacks yielded a strip sack, a very questionable 12-yard defensive pass interference penalty, four completions totaling 44 yards and seven incomplete passes. He has to play a lot better than this to beat Indianapolis.
Five most valuable running backs
Rk Player Team Rush
Yds Rush
TD Rec
Yds Rec
TD Total
DYAR Rush
DYAR Rec
DYAR
1. Pierre Thomas NO 61 1 38 1 63 42 21
Thomas nearly fumbled on his fourth-down conversion in overtime, with Chad Greenway's helmet knocking the ball out of Thomas' hands, but also affixing it to his stomach in the process. Thomas had a 50 percent success rate against the league's best run defense, and he did great work dancing along the sideline en route to his 38-yard receiving touchdown in the first quarter.
2. Joseph Addai IND 80 0 13 0 15 4 10
From 63 DYAR to 15! That's quite the drop-off. Addai probably doesn't deserve all the blame for his second-quarter fumble, when Calvin Pace came free and nearly hit Addai before he was handed the ball. Take away the fumble, and he's way closer to Thomas' figure. Addai didn't have a run longer than 17 yards, but he had seven carries of 5 yards or more.
3. Shonn Greene NYJ 41 0 0 0 10 10 0
While Jets fans might have rued the absence of Leon Washington on Sunday, Washington's injury has allowed Greene to emerge as the team's best pure running back. He's still got a ways to go as a receiver, but Greene's got more than a bit of Marion Barber in him with regards to hitting the hole. He started off the second half with two consecutive 7-yard runs before leaving with an injury; the Jets had 25 rushing yards the rest of the way.
4. Reggie Bush NO 8 0 33 1 5 -20 25
That DYAR figure does not include his muffed punt, which was disastrous. It also doesn't account for his miraculous effort in turning a reverse from a huge loss into no gain, running about 25 yards in the process. For all the talk of his new rushing style and how he's matured, though, the results weren't there this week: Seven carries yielded 8 yards and a success rate of 14 percent.
5. Adrian Peterson MIN 115 3 14 0 1 -6 6
Yes, he had three touchdowns and 115 rushing yards; in addition to the two fumbles, though, he had a success rate of only 40 percent and averaged 2.1 yards per carry on 13 first-down carries against the league's fourth-worst run defense. Wonder how the Saints spent the whole game teeing off on Brett Favre? It was because he was stuck in third-and-8 all day.
Least valuable running back
Rk Player Team Rush
Yds Rush
TD Rec
Yds Rec
TD Total
DYAR Rush
DYAR Rec
DYAR
1. Thomas Jones NYJ 42 0 28 0 -8 -26 18
Even cliffs are disavowing any knowledge of Thomas Jones falling off them at this point. Sixteen carries against the Colts resulted in a 19 percent success rate and exactly one first down. The two first downs he picked up on passes while down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter gave his numbers some boost, but what happened to this guy?
Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total
DYAR
1. Pierre Garçon IND 11 15 151 13.7 1 81
If Dwight Lowery were a video game, Garcon would have the high score; he started off with 27- and 36-yard receptions and settled into a steady string of big plays as the game went along. Six of his 11 completions resulted in first downs, and a seventh was a great catch on a fade for a touchdown. His 23-yard catch in the fourth quarter on third-and-9 from the Jets' 35-yard line probably sealed the game.
2. Austin Collie IND 7 9 123 17.6 1 78
When Garcon missed the first Jets-Colts game, Collie had a dominant first half against Sheppard; with Garcon back, Collie shifted into the slot, and he made whichever Jets safety was matched up against him look foolish. A string of six consecutive catches yielded 112 yards, four first downs and a touchdown. Oh, and when Anthony Gonzalez returns next season, Collie will be the Colts' fifth receiver on offense (behind Gonzalez, Garcon, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark). Scary.
3. Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 5 7 102 20.4 0 37
The bomb from Brad Smith shows how tricky it can be to assign measures of value to individual players in football. Cotchery caught a 35-yard pass and ran for 10 yards after the catch. Those are the facts. We know that the ball was underthrown, though, so Cotchery probably deserves more credit than Smith does for the play. On the other hand, Cotchery was wide open because of the play call and the Jets' tendencies over the course of the season, not his speed or route-running, so really, Brian Schottenheimer deserves a lot of the credit, too. All five of Cotchery's completions resulted in first downs, and three of those plays were on third down.
4. Dustin Keller NYJ 6 7 63 10.5 1 32
There aren't many plays in the playbook for second-and-17, but the Jets pulled out one of theirs on a pass to Keller that picked up 19 yards and a first down in the third quarter. Keller also had a nice catch on the Jets' second touchdown. But as the game wore on, they needed better blocking, so that meant more Ben Hartsock.
5. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 4 6 83 20.8 0 30
Someone who's not a Jet or Colt! Shiancoe's four completions each went for between 16 and 26 yards, including a sublime catch on the sidelines. He wasn't in friendly situations, either; he converted two third downs, a second-and-9, and even a second-and-20.
Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk Player Team Rush
Yds Rush
TD Rec
Yds Rec
TD Total
DYAR Rush
DYAR Rec
DYAR
1. Percy Harvin MIN 15 0 38 0 -30 -17 -13
Harvin ran for two first downs, but he also fumbled; in the passing game, outside of one 20-yard completion, he had seven other targets for 18 yards. After talk all week of whether he and Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey would play, neither had much of an impact on Sunday.
Special "The Pistol is not the Wildcat" Section
Rk Player Team Pass Rec TD Pass
DYAR Rec
DYAR Total
DYAR
1. Brad Smith NYJ 1/1, 45 yds 2/3, 7 yds 1
-15 13
The Jets spent all season setting up Smith's pass from an option play, but when Smith got Jerricho Cotchery wide open, he showed why he's no longer a quarterback. His 35-yard duck was complete, but had Smith led Cotchery, it would have resulted in an easy touchdown instead of just 10 yards after catch. It was a throw closer to LaDainian Tomlinson or Antwaan Randle El than even, say, a Seneca Wallace.
