Value vs Growth (1 Viewer)

[sports_fan]

If you calculate a player's career production on a per game basis and compare this to his prior season totals you can get a decent idea of which direction a player is trending and how they are likely to be viewed in fantasy. I'm going to label a player that produced below his career averages in the prior season as a value play and those that produced above it as a growth play for the next season (considering age/injuries in each instance).

For example.

Value:

Click for stats: Hanley & Braun

Using this approach you're essentially arguing that the immediate past is not a good predictor of the longer term future and that version to the mean can be expected. Hanley and Braun produced below expectations and will likely come at a relative discount in 2011 drafts.

Growth:

Click for stats: Miggy and Crawford

This is the opposite approach. You're using the immediate past as a predictor of the future. It's a growth play because you're trying to capture players on the rise with the idea that they will either continue to rise or stay at this recent level.

(I wasn't sure how to post this information and make it look decent...so I had to resort to the pics. Also, the focus isn't meant to be on these players in particular. They are simply 4 players who fit the mold and could be used as an example. I could have just as easily picked different guys.)

I'll wait for some responses before I share my opinion.

 

[oso diablo]

If you calculate a player's career production on a per game basis and compare this to his prior season totals you can get a decent idea of which direction a player is trending and how they are likely to be viewed in fantasy.

well, this depends significantly on where a player is on the age curve

 

[Eephus]

I don't think it's a clear either-or decision. The value approach makes sense if an established player is returning from injury or an abnormally low BABIP season. A Growth orientation is better to project younger players.

Crawford isn't a particularly good example for a Growth strategy. He's coming off two solid seasons following an injury plagued 2008 year. He'll turn 30 during the season so outside of ballpark effects from his new home, I don't expect to see a lot of development.

There are various projections published (PECOTA, Zips, Bill James, CHONE) that each have their idiosyncrasies. You can use those to form a consensus or just pick one you like. But when you build your team next spring, you need to balance upside and risk.

 

[sports_fan]

There are various projections published (PECOTA, Zips, Bill James, CHONE) that each have their idiosyncrasies. You can use those to form a consensus or just pick one you like. But when you build your team next spring, you need to balance upside and risk.

Of course but these projections systems aren't geared toward the type of information I'm trying to find here. Every season you'll see lists trying to identify the under/overvalued players before the season. I'm trying to quantify this approach.