Value -vs- Talent (1 Viewer)

[Herm23]

I am forced to make an interesting decision in one of my keeper leagues (not a dynasty league, just a keep 4 players league).

One of the rules in this league states that in order to keep a player, you forfeit the draft pick of the round he was drafted in (for instance, if you keep a player drafted in the first round, you will not have a first round pick, if you keep a player drafted in the 2nd round, you will not have a 2nd round pick, etc...).

I am currently attempting to make a very difficult decision on which 4 of these guys to keep:

Calvin Johnson (2nd round cost)

Beanie Wells (6th round cost)

Ray Rice (6th round cost)

Rashard Mendenhall (9th round cost)

Shonne Green (9th round cost)

Obviously Ray Rice is a no brainer and is the 1 player on the list I am for sure keeping, but I am torn on all of the other 4 players and seemingly switch my decision on a daily basis (thankfully I have over a month before I need to decide for good).

In order to avoid turning this into an assistant coaches forum post on who do I keep, I would like to try and keep the topic on the broader point of talent -vs- value when making draft/roster decisions.

If I were basing this purely off of talent, at least in my opinion, it would be a no brainer to keep Rice, Calvin, Beanie, and Wells. Where the wrench gets thrown in is that Mendenhall will only cost me a 9th round pick to keep, while Calvin would cost me a 2nd round pick and Beanie would cost me a 6th round pick. The top of this particular draft is going to end up being pretty stacked by 4 player keeper league standards, with Miles Austin, Sydney Rice, Phillip Rivers, Tono Romo. all the rookies coming in this year that have great potential due to either talent or situation (Best, Mathews, Dez, etc...), plus some other higher end players I am sure I am forgetting at the moment.

With is particular league format, many teams will not have a 1st or 2nd round pick due to players being kept, meaning that a 2nd round pick essentially would default to a first round pick (off the top of my head, I think only 3 players will have first round picks this year, and only 6 will have 2nd round picks). This means that I am basically giving up a top 9 pick in order to keep Calvin and a top 35 pick in order to keep Beanie. However, I feel Calvin is the single most talented receiver in the leauge on an up and coming offense that is primed to be the best receiver and produce elite seasons for many years to come and Beanie is almost an elite talent capable of outproducing Mendenhall on a yearly basis (I realize these may not be everyone's opinion, but for the sake of arguing value -vs- talent, let's just assume both of those statements to be true).

At what point does Calvin and Beanie's price outweigh their talent in relation to Mendenhall?

Conversely, I actually am lukewarm on Mendenhall, and agree with the general consensus that seems to be forming that he is a leading bust candidate. There are FAR too many questions about the Steelers offense and I think he is only an above average talent at best.

At what point does Mendenhall's lack of talent outweigh his value in relation to Calvin and Beanie?

Long story longer, do you prefer to make roster and/or draft decisions based on talent or do you do it based off of value? If you use both, how do you differentiate between the two and at what point does the scale tip for you in either direction? I am typically a person who gravitates towards the belief that in the end, talent trumps all, but am having a suprisingly difficult time with this decision, based mostly on the huge difference in value between the players involved.

 

[Joe T]

That's a lot of questions.

* I think typically later in the draft (about round 9 or so) I start paying much more attention to talent because most of the value should be gone already. And you are using a late pick on a very talented player with an assumed upside if the right pieces fall into place. Your question makes me think immediately of Ricky Williams and Cadillac Williams from last year. These guys went later in drafts, but have tremendous talent. There's a slight premium on those type of players.

* As for your personal debate above on those specific players, I think you might be looking at it wrong (although I don't play in keeper leagues so maybe I'm not the right person to answer.) I think you should look at "can I get player X in the round that I would have to give up?" The two guys on the list that fall into that category are Calvin and maybe Beanie. The other guys look like you are giving up a pick far below their current value so that makes them obvious keepers to me.

 

[SSOG]

I am forced to make an interesting decision in one of my keeper leagues (not a dynasty league, just a keep 4 players league).One of the rules in this league states that in order to keep a player, you forfeit the draft pick of the round he was drafted in (for instance, if you keep a player drafted in the first round, you will not have a first round pick, if you keep a player drafted in the 2nd round, you will not have a 2nd round pick, etc...).I am currently attempting to make a very difficult decision on which 4 of these guys to keep:Calvin Johnson (2nd round cost)Beanie Wells (6th round cost)Ray Rice (6th round cost)Rashard Mendenhall (9th round cost)Shonne Green (9th round cost)Obviously Ray Rice is a no brainer and is the 1 player on the list I am for sure keeping, but I am torn on all of the other 4 players and seemingly switch my decision on a daily basis (thankfully I have over a month before I need to decide for good).In order to avoid turning this into an assistant coaches forum post on who do I keep, I would like to try and keep the topic on the broader point of talent -vs- value when making draft/roster decisions.If I were basing this purely off of talent, at least in my opinion, it would be a no brainer to keep Rice, Calvin, Beanie, and Wells. Where the wrench gets thrown in is that Mendenhall will only cost me a 9th round pick to keep, while Calvin would cost me a 2nd round pick and Beanie would cost me a 6th round pick. The top of this particular draft is going to end up being pretty stacked by 4 player keeper league standards, with Miles Austin, Sydney Rice, Phillip Rivers, Tono Romo. all the rookies coming in this year that have great potential due to either talent or situation (Best, Mathews, Dez, etc...), plus some other higher end players I am sure I am forgetting at the moment. With is particular league format, many teams will not have a 1st or 2nd round pick due to players being kept, meaning that a 2nd round pick essentially would default to a first round pick (off the top of my head, I think only 3 players will have first round picks this year, and only 6 will have 2nd round picks). This means that I am basically giving up a top 9 pick in order to keep Calvin and a top 35 pick in order to keep Beanie. However, I feel Calvin is the single most talented receiver in the leauge on an up and coming offense that is primed to be the best receiver and produce elite seasons for many years to come and Beanie is almost an elite talent capable of outproducing Mendenhall on a yearly basis (I realize these may not be everyone's opinion, but for the sake of arguing value -vs- talent, let's just assume both of those statements to be true).At what point does Calvin and Beanie's price outweigh their talent in relation to Mendenhall?Conversely, I actually am lukewarm on Mendenhall, and agree with the general consensus that seems to be forming that he is a leading bust candidate. There are FAR too many questions about the Steelers offense and I think he is only an above average talent at best.At what point does Mendenhall's lack of talent outweigh his value in relation to Calvin and Beanie?Long story longer, do you prefer to make roster and/or draft decisions based on talent or do you do it based off of value? If you use both, how do you differentiate between the two and at what point does the scale tip for you in either direction? I am typically a person who gravitates towards the belief that in the end, talent trumps all, but am having a suprisingly difficult time with this decision, based mostly on the huge difference in value between the players involved.

Two things. First off, run a mock draft where you keep either one player or the other. Throw Calvin back in the pool and see where you expect him to get drafted. If a 2nd round pick is like a 1st round pick in that league, then it's entirely possible that you can throw Calvin back only to have him make it back to you, letting you effectively keep all 5. Personally, without knowing more specifics of your league, it seems that Calvin's keeper cost should be right around his ADP... and there's no value to be had there. You shouldn't keep anyone whose cost is the same as his ADP (or worse, higher!).Another thing to think about going forward is whether there are duration caps on your keepers. Can you keep these players indefinitely? If so, it's not a question of whether you'd rather pay a 2nd rounder for Calvin this year... it's whether you'd rather pay a 2nd rounder for Calvin this year *AND EVERY SUBSEQUENT YEAR*, or whether you'd pay a 9th rounder for Mendenhall this year *AND EVERY SUBSEQUENT YEAR*. I have a keep-3 league with a graduated keeper cost (every year the player costs a pick 2 rounds higher), and some of the best keepers in the history of that league have been guys who were kept when they were backups for a 20th round pick and who then earned the starting job and ran with it. Guys like Michael Turner and Larry Johnson were kept for an absolute pittance because the owner had the foresight to "waste" a keeper pick to hold them a year in advance (while they were still a backup) in anticipation of the eventual payout (a high-caliber starting RB for a pick in the high teens). In that respect, while Mendenhall might not thrill you that much this year, how will you feel if he goes out and puts up a top-10 performance and you can keep him for a 9th rounder AGAIN?

 

[Herm23]

I am forced to make an interesting decision in one of my keeper leagues (not a dynasty league, just a keep 4 players league).One of the rules in this league states that in order to keep a player, you forfeit the draft pick of the round he was drafted in (for instance, if you keep a player drafted in the first round, you will not have a first round pick, if you keep a player drafted in the 2nd round, you will not have a 2nd round pick, etc...).I am currently attempting to make a very difficult decision on which 4 of these guys to keep:Calvin Johnson (2nd round cost)Beanie Wells (6th round cost)Ray Rice (6th round cost)Rashard Mendenhall (9th round cost)Shonne Green (9th round cost)Obviously Ray Rice is a no brainer and is the 1 player on the list I am for sure keeping, but I am torn on all of the other 4 players and seemingly switch my decision on a daily basis (thankfully I have over a month before I need to decide for good).In order to avoid turning this into an assistant coaches forum post on who do I keep, I would like to try and keep the topic on the broader point of talent -vs- value when making draft/roster decisions.If I were basing this purely off of talent, at least in my opinion, it would be a no brainer to keep Rice, Calvin, Beanie, and Wells. Where the wrench gets thrown in is that Mendenhall will only cost me a 9th round pick to keep, while Calvin would cost me a 2nd round pick and Beanie would cost me a 6th round pick. The top of this particular draft is going to end up being pretty stacked by 4 player keeper league standards, with Miles Austin, Sydney Rice, Phillip Rivers, Tono Romo. all the rookies coming in this year that have great potential due to either talent or situation (Best, Mathews, Dez, etc...), plus some other higher end players I am sure I am forgetting at the moment. With is particular league format, many teams will not have a 1st or 2nd round pick due to players being kept, meaning that a 2nd round pick essentially would default to a first round pick (off the top of my head, I think only 3 players will have first round picks this year, and only 6 will have 2nd round picks). This means that I am basically giving up a top 9 pick in order to keep Calvin and a top 35 pick in order to keep Beanie. However, I feel Calvin is the single most talented receiver in the leauge on an up and coming offense that is primed to be the best receiver and produce elite seasons for many years to come and Beanie is almost an elite talent capable of outproducing Mendenhall on a yearly basis (I realize these may not be everyone's opinion, but for the sake of arguing value -vs- talent, let's just assume both of those statements to be true).At what point does Calvin and Beanie's price outweigh their talent in relation to Mendenhall?Conversely, I actually am lukewarm on Mendenhall, and agree with the general consensus that seems to be forming that he is a leading bust candidate. There are FAR too many questions about the Steelers offense and I think he is only an above average talent at best.At what point does Mendenhall's lack of talent outweigh his value in relation to Calvin and Beanie?Long story longer, do you prefer to make roster and/or draft decisions based on talent or do you do it based off of value? If you use both, how do you differentiate between the two and at what point does the scale tip for you in either direction? I am typically a person who gravitates towards the belief that in the end, talent trumps all, but am having a suprisingly difficult time with this decision, based mostly on the huge difference in value between the players involved.

Two things. First off, run a mock draft where you keep either one player or the other. Throw Calvin back in the pool and see where you expect him to get drafted. If a 2nd round pick is like a 1st round pick in that league, then it's entirely possible that you can throw Calvin back only to have him make it back to you, letting you effectively keep all 5. Personally, without knowing more specifics of your league, it seems that Calvin's keeper cost should be right around his ADP... and there's no value to be had there. You shouldn't keep anyone whose cost is the same as his ADP (or worse, higher!).Another thing to think about going forward is whether there are duration caps on your keepers. Can you keep these players indefinitely? If so, it's not a question of whether you'd rather pay a 2nd rounder for Calvin this year... it's whether you'd rather pay a 2nd rounder for Calvin this year *AND EVERY SUBSEQUENT YEAR*, or whether you'd pay a 9th rounder for Mendenhall this year *AND EVERY SUBSEQUENT YEAR*. I have a keep-3 league with a graduated keeper cost (every year the player costs a pick 2 rounds higher), and some of the best keepers in the history of that league have been guys who were kept when they were backups for a 20th round pick and who then earned the starting job and ran with it. Guys like Michael Turner and Larry Johnson were kept for an absolute pittance because the owner had the foresight to "waste" a keeper pick to hold them a year in advance (while they were still a backup) in anticipation of the eventual payout (a high-caliber starting RB for a pick in the high teens). In that respect, while Mendenhall might not thrill you that much this year, how will you feel if he goes out and puts up a top-10 performance and you can keep him for a 9th rounder AGAIN?

In this particular league, once a player is drafted he assumes a 3 year "contract", in which he retains his cost for 3 years after being drafted. These were all players that were drafted last year, so they will all have an additional 2 remaining years at their current cost. After the 3 year "contract" is up, the player reverts to a 1st round cost if you which to continue keeping him (for instance, if you draft a player in round 5, he will cost you a 5th round pick for the next 3 years to keep. After those 3 years are up, you may continue keeping him, but he will cost you a 1st round pick to do so). If at any point a player is not kept and is re-drafted, he begins a new 3 year "contract".So with this information (and truly I meant to include it in my initial post but somehow forgot...probably because I got way too longwinded!), for this year plus the next 2 years after this any player I keep will retain his value.Here is how I am currently viewing things to give you some insight into my current decision making process:- I believe I can have all 5 of these players back next year if I want to, as I am one of the 3 teams that will have a first round pick. If I want all 5 players back, the move is to keep all 4 running backs and then re-draft Calvin (who I feel strongly will be there at my pick in the first round...which will be the last of the 3 teams that have a 1st round pick).- By doing this, I retain the great value of all 4 of the running backs by keeping them and thus not re-setting their contract, which would assuredly jump to a 1st or 2nd round cost if they were thrown back into the draft pool.- Unfortunately, going this route means I am keeping Mendenhall, who I do not have great faith in.- Another unfortunate side effect is I re-set Calvin's contract to a 1st round pick (instead of the current 2nd round cost he currently carries). Considering my belief that he is the BEST receiver in the NFL and a very safe bet to produce elite numbers (and quite possibly produce as the best fantasy and real receiver in the league for many years in a row), this would be a blow.This brings us back to the central point of the post- does Mendenhall only costing a 9th round pick outweigh what I believe to be a lack of opportunity and/or talent this year to produce elite numbers? I have him rated lower than several other players that will be in the draft, so I will be forfeiting my opportunity to draft one these players in order to require Calvin, leaving me with Calvin and Mendenhall instead of Calvin and 1 of the elite talents in the draft pool.How much should a person be willing to bend on the belief that talent is paramount in order to utilize a great draft cost value?

 

[metal]

I'll be the guy arguing Megatron here but you need to study who everyone else is keeping. In the case of CJ at a 2nd round pick, I would say to you to evaluate everyone elses keepers and see what would happen *if* you were to toss Johnson out. If for example, the top WRs you want are being kept and CJ turns into a 1st rounder somehow, I would keep him.

 

[Herm23]

I'll be the guy arguing Megatron here but you need to study who everyone else is keeping. In the case of CJ at a 2nd round pick, I would say to you to evaluate everyone elses keepers and see what would happen *if* you were to toss Johnson out. If for example, the top WRs you want are being kept and CJ turns into a 1st rounder somehow, I would keep him.

I have done this and my assumption is that I would be able to re-acquire Calvin only if I re-drafted him in the first round. If I passed on him in the 1st, I don't think he would make it back to me in the 2nd (he would have to make it through another 3 picks and would clearly be the superior talent available at each of those 3 picks).I didn't include any of this information in the original post becuase I was hoping to avoid it getting too specific on my exact situation and keep it more broad in terms of the general topic.

 

[gandalas]

Beanie Wells (6th round cost)

Ray Rice (6th round cost)

Rashard Mendenhall (9th round cost)

Shonne Green (9th round cost)

I would definitely keep those, and you will be set at RB forever, basically. All those guys are young, and taken at a great price relative to their value.

CJ is a 2nd rounder at best right now anyway, so not like you would gain anything by keeping him there.

You will then have at least 4 picks in the first 5 rounds, when most other people will have at least one round lost to a keeper, if not more.

 

[Herm23]

Beanie Wells (6th round cost)Ray Rice (6th round cost)Rashard Mendenhall (9th round cost)Shonne Green (9th round cost)I would definitely keep those, and you will be set at RB forever, basically. All those guys are young, and taken at a great price relative to their value. CJ is a 2nd rounder at best right now anyway, so not like you would gain anything by keeping him there.You will then have at least 4 picks in the first 5 rounds, when most other people will have at least one round lost to a keeper, if not more.

This makes sense if you look at it only like that, but you have to figure in what I'm unable to draft as a result of keeping Mendenhall as well.Let's assume that I am 100% re-drafting Calvin in the 1st round if I do not keep him (because as of now that is what I am going to do and I have already stated I believe he is THE premier keeper/dynasty WR prospect in the league). That means I end up with the other 3 keepers (Beanie, Rice, Green), plus Mendenhall as the 4th keeper and then Calvin as my 1st round pick. I will be unable to grab any of the elite players in the draft, as they only go about 5 deep and I would not have a pick within the first 5 picks.If I do it the other way, however, and Keep Calvin instead of Mendenhall, that means I would end up with the other 3 keepers (Beanie, Rice, Green), plus Calvin as the 4th keeper and then one of the elite talents in the draft pool (likely Mathews, Best, or Miles Austin). I have all 3 of these players rated significantly ahead of Mendenhall on my board (I just have never been a huge fan of Mendenhall).The central theme seems to continue to come down to this- does Mendenhall's great value (only a 9th round cost for this year plus the next 2 years after) continue to outweigh other more talented options I could otherwise acquire? By keeping Mendenhall, I am basically giving myself a mulligan on my first pick after Calvin. If I pick a bust, I at least have Mendenhall to fall back on. Unfortunately, I think I have a lower ceiling with which to work, as I won't have an opportunity at any elite talents. The other way around forces me to be dead on with my 1st round pick, as I won't have Mendenhall's great value to fall back on, but gives me access to 2 elite options (Calvin plus whoever I pick in the 1st round), instead of 1 elite option and 2 only above average options (Calvin plus Mendenhall and whoever I pick in the 2nd round).Maybe the strategy discussion to be had from this is: which do you prefer and which have you generally had more success with- more conservative approaches to your drafts that allow you to recover from mistakes, or do you rely on your eyes and your evaluation of players, trusting your ability to be correct on your picks, but knowing you are in trouble if you miss on them?

 

[Instinctive]

Can you not trade Mendenhall to somebody for an extra pick? Then they get to keep him but you get perhaps another 1st rounder?

I think that in this case at least, the value is so dramatic that it outweighs the talent. Also, i think Mendy is more talented haha. To get a guy going in the 1st two rounds of every re-draft this year at the cost of a 9th round pick is insane.

Before tossing him back in I would look to explore the option of acquiring picks at least...if you're dead-set on Calvin.

I think that were Mendy to be a 3rd or 4th round pricetag, then Calvin would be worth more. But once you're getting a starting NFL RB in the 5th round or later, you have a massive advantage. Getting a 1st round receiver in the 2nd is no big deal...especially if you'll be able to get a first round receiver at the start of the draft anyway. Ray Rice won a lot of people their leagues last year because he was a starting RB in the 5th round.